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When will it all end?
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As (I/we) are 60+ and following all the rules, sadly large numbers of population are not, in addition our Government is NOT protecting us as it should.
Even if we inoculate/vaccine everybody in Ireland right now today/tomorrow, every man women & child we still have the problem of people crossing the border (in & out) and those flying (in & out) of the country. We all love our pets, we look after them, treasure them, inoculations, boosters, exercise, keeping away from other animals, look at what we done for foot & mouth disease in the past, ….
The HSE, hospitals, doctors and staff and doing a marvelous job, how long can they cope with limited budgets/staff; our whole health system is crazy and was always underfunded and short-handed. It never was and is not now today fit for purpose.
Just walk the streets of any village/town/city, too many people out, too many large groups, too many in shops, no social distancing, some still not wearing masks, teenagers/young adults in large groups, people spitting on the footpaths, etc. etc …………………. The list goes on & on ………….
Look at Taiwan, international figures say less than 1000 cases and less than a dozen deaths, why so low do you ask. Simple – they took the hard decisions when needed and stuck with them. (country lockdown, regional lockdowns as necessary, all travelers in/out of country tested, mandatory quarantine, the state provided health workers, health care, arranged transport, daily meal delivery, daily medical care, contact & tracing, daily personal contacts, and follow-up with phone calls, etc. etc. ……………………….
NOTE, I am not looking for or advocating state control, far from it, BUT, when the **** hits the fan we need out Politicians/Government to act in our best interest, sadly the state has not do so to date.
We are either in a lockdown, a proper lockdown or something else. The half-hearted measures so far are not working.
I agree with some parts of this but I also think it’s very confused. You want more government controls and more restrictions but you also say you are not advocating for state control... confused.
Good article in the guardian yesterday about how the level of personal responsibility and culture of “tight” rule keeping is the main difference between how covid affects countries. Japan, a “tight” country where people tend to play by the rules, has had 5000 deaths. Mexicohas the same population and is a “loose”’country where people tend to flout the rules and has had 150,000 deaths.
How people behave is the main factor. Irish people see virtue in breaking the rules for the sake of breaking the rules. It’s baked into the culture. We can blame the government but the reality is it’s down to personal behaviour.0 -
This is the key part, which there seems no appetite from politicians to do.Tiredandcranky wrote: »Agree that restrictions on international travel are needed to get back to normal, but why would we need masks and social distancing? Suppose we achieve zero COVID here, via vaccinations, masks, social distancing etc., then control the borders, and use rapid/frequent test and trace to control any cases that seep across. We may need the occasional short lockdown if our test/trace fails, but apart from that life can be normal, or very very close. Or am I missing something?0 -
It will never end in terms of this virus disappearing. It is an endemic corona virus.
Post vaccinations deaths will reduce.
The only question is a simple one.
At what point will governments deem the level of death for this disease acceptable to fully remove restrictions?
Any ideas ?
And just for conjecture one more question ?
Why in comparison to the multitude of other entirely preventable deaths from infectious diseases and other preventable causes have we gone full metal jacket on this one ?0 -
This is the key part, which there seems no appetite from politicians to do.
My best guess as to the political heel dragging is that they are waiting for the EU to do this on an EU wide basis. They have to make the right noises about being committed to the common travel area, or risk angering the big bad EU. And they have to make the right noises about keeping the NI border open, esp after all the Brexit row over the border(S).
I don’t agree with this strategy of keeping the EU sweet. If the EU are dragging their heels, we should plough on ahead ourselves. What are they actually going to do ? Kick us out of the EU? Penalise us at the very time that cracks in the whole project are appearing? They want it to survive. We want it to survive. They will tolerate a little rule bending/breaking. And who knows, if we achieve zero COVID here and a return to (almost) normality, maybe NI will look across the border and think we could do that do.... let’s join up and go for an all island approach. (Note I do NOT mean a United Ireland by this. Unionist wishes have to be respected on that... they cannot and should not be railroaded into it)
Now is not the time to do the ‘political norm’ and toe the line at every hands turns. Be brave, make decisions, make a decent future for everyone.0 -
As (I/we) are 60+ and following all the rules, sadly large numbers of population are not, in addition our Government is NOT protecting us as it should.
Even if we inoculate/vaccine everybody in Ireland right now today/tomorrow, every man women & child we still have the problem of people crossing the border (in & out) and those flying (in & out) of the country. We all love our pets, we look after them, treasure them, inoculations, boosters, exercise, keeping away from other animals, look at what we done for foot & mouth disease in the past, ….
The HSE, hospitals, doctors and staff and doing a marvelous job, how long can they cope with limited budgets/staff; our whole health system is crazy and was always underfunded and short-handed. It never was and is not now today fit for purpose.
Just walk the streets of any village/town/city, too many people out, too many large groups, too many in shops, no social distancing, some still not wearing masks, teenagers/young adults in large groups, people spitting on the footpaths, etc. etc …………………. The list goes on & on ………….
Look at Taiwan, international figures say less than 1000 cases and less than a dozen deaths, why so low do you ask. Simple – they took the hard decisions when needed and stuck with them. (country lockdown, regional lockdowns as necessary, all travelers in/out of country tested, mandatory quarantine, the state provided health workers, health care, arranged transport, daily meal delivery, daily medical care, contact & tracing, daily personal contacts, and follow-up with phone calls, etc. etc. ……………………….
NOTE, I am not looking for or advocating state control, far from it, BUT, when the **** hits the fan we need out Politicians/Government to act in our best interest, sadly the state has not do so to date.
We are either in a lockdown, a proper lockdown or something else. The half-hearted measures so far are not working.
When your dealing with a highly contagious virus, that as long as there are people leaving their homes every day to go to work the virus will spread. Many jobs are deemed essential including many large factories. Even delivery drivers are very essential when you have kids and they need clothes etc. Reason I say this is because even if everyone behaved exactly as they should there would still be cases. And any easing of restrictions will always lead to more cases.
The HSE is NOT underfunded. It’s one of the best funded healthcare systems in the world per capita. The doctors and nurses might be doing a wonderful job but the HSE have never been competent and have mismanaged the health service for years.
You say your not looking for state control, however if you want a stricter lockdown or stricter measures they can’t be enforced unless you give the state more power. The longer this lockdown goes on the more people will stop fully complying with the restrictions. Once the case numbers drop off people will start going back doing household visits and letting kids play together. How do you prevent this without having a police state??0 -
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El_Duderino 09 wrote: »I agree with some parts of this but I also think it’s very confused. You want more government controls and more restrictions but you also say you are not advocating for state control... confused.
Good article in the guardian yesterday about how the level of personal responsibility and culture of “tight” rule keeping is the main difference between how covid affects countries. Japan, a “tight” country where people tend to play by the rules, has had 5000 deaths. Mexicohas the same population and is a “loose”’country where people tend to flout the rules and has had 150,000 deaths.
How people behave is the main factor. Irish people see virtue in breaking the rules for the sake of breaking the rules. It’s baked into the culture. We can blame the government but the reality is it’s down to personal behaviour.
Not much social distancing at the penis parade
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theculturetrip.com/asia/japan/articles/how-to-celebrate-kanamara-matsuri-tokyos-penis-festival/%3famp=1
The Yakuza are not exactly law abiding.
Personally, I hate the comparative exceptionalism argument. A Japanese study of covid19 showed huge circulation last summer but without a lot of illness. Might be better investigating why they didn't get ill.0 -
When your dealing with a highly contagious virus, that as long as there are people leaving their homes every day to go to work the virus will spread. Many jobs are deemed essential including many large factories. Even delivery drivers are very essential when you have kids and they need clothes etc. Reason I say this is because even if everyone behaved exactly as they should there would still be cases. And any easing of restrictions will always lead to more cases.
The HSE is NOT underfunded. It’s one of the best funded healthcare systems in the world per capita. The doctors and nurses might be doing a wonderful job but the HSE have never been competent and have mismanaged the health service for years.
You say your not looking for state control, however if you want a stricter lockdown or stricter measures they can’t be enforced unless you give the state more power. The longer this lockdown goes on the more people will stop fully complying with the restrictions. Once the case numbers drop off people will start going back doing household visits and letting kids play together. How do you prevent this without having a police state??
Indeed!
The budget for 2021 alone is €21billion !!! https://www.healthmanager.ie/2020/10/largest-budget-increase-in-history-of-state/
How could anyone call that underfunding? Its gross mismanagement of funding. That lies on the shoulders of the HSE and the Department of Health.0 -
Tiredandcranky wrote: »From what we’ve reasoned out, it seems like that’s the way it’s headed, doesn’t it? Some areas of the world will be COVID free, some won’t. Travel can take place freely between COVID free areas, but we will need border controls to protect against those who aren’t. Probably the EU are thinking of doing this on an EU wide level. Either way, as borders can’t be hermetically sealed (and even if they are, testing is not 100% accurate), we can expect a few cases to seep through, and a proportion of those will be vaccine resistant I.e. a new disease effectively. We will need testing capability ... routine (On high frequency travellers presumably like truck drivers), and rapid (antigen testing might be the way to go here) ideally to spot these cases and contain before they force another lockdown. I suppose another reasonable assumption, given human propensity for error etc., is that this system may occasionally fail, leading to occasional short lockdowns.
I don’t share the pessimistic view that events with crowds will never take place again. Not sure who posted it, but I don’t understand your logic there. If we’re in a COVID free part of the world, have border controls, and rapid test and trace, why can’t we live normally?
I don't see border control as a long term solution to any of this. Even countries which have been successful in keeping covid out by closing their borders like Australia and New Zealand will have to open up eventually.
Antigen testing and vaccination is the best way to control it. I would definitely be in favour of slowly opening things up once hospital numbers drop even if it means that the virus will spread among healthy people because it will give some immunity to that part of the population. Once the vulnerable have been vaccinated and it's proven to be effective there is no reason to keep everything closed but it would be a very bad idea to open up before this.
In Perth currently they are in a 5 day lockdown over one case. They had been living more or less as normal up until then for the last 10 months. All it took was one case and straight away they locked down. They have kept borders closed and have the advantage of being the most isolated city in the world. Ireland can't do this because we can't control the border in the same way. This is my logic for saying we can't live normally even with the best measures in place if we rely on border control and testing alone.0 -
Tiredandcranky wrote: »Agree that restrictions on international travel are needed to get back to normal, but why would we need masks and social distancing? Suppose we achieve zero COVID here, via vaccinations, masks, social distancing etc., then control the borders, and use rapid/frequent test and trace to control any cases that seep across. We may need the occasional short lockdown if our test/trace fails, but apart from that life can be normal, or very very close. Or am I missing something?
It depends on how practicable the system of test and trace you outlines above, actually is. So far we have a very poor test and trace system. In fact, it needs to be a test, race and isolate system. And the isolation part has been followed by a tiny fraction of people . I wonder if you even know the rules on isolation ( i don't know them off the top of my head).
Ireland has a very open style of economy. It's not as open as the UK - London is a major global business hub. But it would be need to be a brand new system of test, trace and isolate, and it would need the people to buy into it and that last part is the part i think you're missing.
I think you're talking about a theoretically perfect system which, if every part works correctly, would allow us to get to zero cases for months at a time., I think it's just really unlikely to happen as it would rely on the people to buy in and the test, trace and isolate system to work and people to buy into it too.0 -
I actually don't accept this at all. When the most vulnerable are vaccinated we must open up, if hospitalizations increase then we have to scale up our hospital capacity and improve our treatments. This is the only "new normal" I am willing to accept when people are no longer dying of covid 19. It's already starting to kick off around the EU, not widely reported but it will happen here too when our death count gets to almost zero.
How much will we need to increase hospital capacity by? Is this possible? What improved(proven) treatments do you suggest?
I would suggest waiting to see how case numbers react to what's happening in other EU countries before we start doing the same and making a bad situation worse.0 -
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mcsean2163 wrote: »Not much social distancing at the penis parade
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theculturetrip.com/asia/japan/articles/how-to-celebrate-kanamara-matsuri-tokyos-penis-festival/%3famp=1
The Yakuza are not exactly law abiding.
Personally, I hate the comparative exceptionalism argument. A Japanese study of covid19 showed huge circulation last summer but without a lot of illness. Might be better investigating why they didn't get ill.
I think it would be a pretty steep hill to clime to argue that there isn't a difference in how the Japanese and the Mexicans behave regarding rule keeping.
I don't argue that the irish are the worst in the world - i don't need to. Cultures behave differently, to deny that using the Yakuza crime gang or a picture of a parade, is silly.0 -
mcsean2163 wrote: »Not much social distancing at the penis parade
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theculturetrip.com/asia/japan/articles/how-to-celebrate-kanamara-matsuri-tokyos-penis-festival/%3famp=1
The Yakuza are not exactly law abiding.
Personally, I hate the comparative exceptionalism argument. A Japanese study of covid19 showed huge circulation last summer but without a lot of illness. Might be better investigating why they didn't get ill.
Did you just really really really want to post an article about penises, with pictures of penises?
Cos it has nothing to do with this thread0 -
Did you just really really really want to post an article about penises, with pictures of penises?
Cos it has nothing to do with this thread
Incredibly, it was part of an argument hat there aren't cultural differences between cultures - a penis parade! Or maybe the argument was that cultural differences don't matter when it comes to spreading covid. In any case, is was a difficult argument and i think it was mostly about the penis parade picture.0 -
I don't see border control as a long term solution to any of this. Even countries which have been successful in keeping covid out by closing their borders like Australia and New Zealand will have to open up eventually.
Antigen testing and vaccination is the best way to control it. I would definitely be in favour of slowly opening things up once hospital numbers drop even if it means that the virus will spread among healthy people because it will give some immunity to that part of the population. Once the vulnerable have been vaccinated and it's proven to be effective there is no reason to keep everything closed but it would be a very bad idea to open up before this.
In Perth currently they are in a 5 day lockdown over one case. They had been living more or less as normal up until then for the last 10 months. All it took was one case and straight away they locked down. They have kept borders closed and have the advantage of being the most isolated city in the world. Ireland can't do this because we can't control the border in the same way. This is my logic for saying we can't live normally even with the best measures in place if we rely on border control and testing alone.
Border closed until mass vaccination is the only solution.
We'll still get the mass vaccination but all those who died did so unnecessarily.0 -
I think people are reading too much into the mutations. They are more infectious certainly, but it's still basically the same virus and the vaccines work against them. This virus will become endemic and just another coronavirus.
I also think it is pointless arguing about when we should open up. It will be based on hospital stats which is the only thing that matters. If the vaccination campaign goes well, and people do the right thing in the meantime to suppress the spread, then the date will come sooner. If either vaccination doesn't go well, or people lose the run of themselves ignoring the guidelines, then that will delay it.0 -
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Did you just really really really want to post an article about penises, with pictures of penises?
Cos it has nothing to do with this thread
Not only has it bugger all to do with anything.
Especially anything to do with people not observing restrictions.
The article is dated 5 July 20190 -
Very easy to say close the border....very hard to close the border in practice. How do you suggest closing the border?
Absolutely agree, you can't close the border (NI one) and all of this guff and talk about North South cooperation and a single island policy is just talk. Nothing can and will happen. You can do a New Zealand on other travel into Ireland but with the open border it's pointless unless the UK does a NZ too.
If you want to continue with travel restrictions the only one that makes any sense is unifying with the UK and forming a bubble in the UK and Ireland so that regs are consistent with the entire UK and Ireland. The UK has consistently honoured the CTA through this entire process and this won't change.
I think O'Leary has it spot on. Vaccinate all the over 50's and vulnerable and then lift all restrictions entirely and get on with life and live with the virus. Anyone who wants to stay at home, well it will be free society once again so fire ahead.
You have to bear in mind we won't ever achieve 100% vaccine coverage as there will always be people who won't take the vaccine, people who can't take the vaccine etc etc people who don't respond well to the vaccine etc etc so the virus will happily continue to move around our populations just like influenza and the other endemic corona viruses. In time a combination of natural human immunity and vaccines will just push it into the background along with possible mutations that reduce it's lethality to the old and vulnerable. Perhaps though it will never mutate that much and we will just have to accept it's another very minor threat to our lives just life flu and a myriad of other infectious diseases and other health conditions.
This is an endemic virus now, people really don't seem to be grasping that this virus will be with humans for the foreseeable future. The vaccines are not golden bullets. It's really a case of living with it and with the vaccines the collateral damage from this virus will be nothing of unusual significance.0 -
In reality we're limited by the North problem.Very easy to say close the border....very hard to close the border in practice. How do you suggest closing the border?
We can't jettison them as they are Irish, but we can't control their border as the UK still occupies the territory. If we had the option of all island sovereignty then we could close the borders like AU, NZ et al did.0 -
Genuine question
If Australia can close it's inter state borders, why can't we close the NI one?
I would imagine the NSW / Victoria border is comparable to our situation geographically, not geopolitically.0 -
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seems UK are getting vaccine out so fast, so presume once they have full coverage with vaccine it will have similar outcome for Ireland as closing the border
Cant see people continuing to restrict life into Aug/Sept when there has been over 6 months to get vacc administred.
If the vaccine roll out continues to be this slow people will just say we gave 18months to 'save' the health service and save lives by staying at home but the HSE\Gov have not worked as hard on their part getting the vaccine out so why should we continue to struggle.
Have seen it around here vaccine given to family\friends of people working in HSE. Those people are now already planning summer holidays, trips abroad as they have been vaccinated.0 -
Very easy to say close the border....very hard to close the border in practice. How do you suggest closing the border?
These guys have no clue how porous the border is. Its an impossibility.
Its also nonsense. Zero covid makes sense if possible, in terms of closing the border, at the start of an outbreak. Back when the WHO and NPHET opposed travel restrictions.
Once we have vaccines then the strategy should be controlled ( or zero) covid with the vaccines. This is why we suffered last year. To get time to get the vaccinations. Now we have them and the government needs to step up.
And to do that we need a vaccine program that takes a few months, not the guts of a year.0 -
Genuine question
If Australia can close it's inter state borders, why can't we close the NI one?
I would imagine the NSW / Victoria border is comparable to our situation geographically, not geopolitically.
Australian police are kicking down doors and battering pregnant women for posting anti lockdown sentiment on social media, you want a society like that ?0 -
Genuine question
If Australia can close it's inter state borders, why can't we close the NI one?
I would imagine the NSW / Victoria border is comparable to our situation geographically, not geopolitically.
Wishful thinking, can't and won't happen. Combination of worker movement, other essential travel, political agreements and basic politics won't allow it.
Yes you can argue anything is 'possible' - but it simply can't and won't happen.
The best that can be done is Garda checks trying to limit movement but anyone with a letter saying it's 'essential work' along with several other reasons for travel as per the ROI Level 5 rules will be allowed to travel.
I just can't see anyway past this.0 -
Genuine question
If Australia can close it's inter state borders, why can't we close the NI one?
I would imagine the NSW / Victoria border is comparable to our situation geographically, not geopolitically.
The Australian federal government has control over all the borders in Australia. No single government has control over the borders in Ireland. That means there are international considerations in Ireland , which don't exist in Australia's borders. That's a huge difference.
A much more likely scenario is British isles common travel area. They are way ahead of us in the vaccination programme so they would be doing us a favour. Nne of these things are likely to happen though.0 -
Genuine question
If Australia can close it's inter state borders, why can't we close the NI one?
I would imagine the NSW / Victoria border is comparable to our situation geographically, not geopolitically.
There's no way they can say the border between those states is categorically close unless they build a wall or man the entire border with checkpoints.
The border of NSW is over 4000KM long.
Our border is much smaller, but again, its a case of man power. There are an estimated 300 roads crossing the Northern Irish border into the republic. Thats 300 checkpoints, manned 24X7.0 -
Tiredandcranky wrote: »And who knows, if we achieve zero COVID here and a return to (almost) normality, maybe NI will look across the border and think we could do that do.... let’s join up and go for an all island approach.
It is far more likely that we will be looking over the border at them getting their vaccines and wishing we could do that.0 -
In reality we're limited by the North problem.
We can't jettison them as they are Irish, but we can't control their border as the UK still occupies the territory. If we had the option of all island sovereignty then we could close the borders like AU, NZ et al did.
If being the most important word in there. We don't have it so it's not possible to do like Australia and NZ.0 -
There've been a few responses so to my question on the new south wales / victoria border.
It seems that they've closed roads, but you can walk across no problem. Not unlike ourselves.
The towns of Albury and Woodonga are not unlike Lifford and Strabane.
Again, I'm talking purely geographically reasons. It seems that they have a model that we could use. Their border might be longer than ours, but it may well less crossings.
Political reasoning is a different matter. All the arguments being put forward are ones that put the focus on the porous nature of the border, but if that's been solved elsewhere then the reason is purely political will to do it.0 -
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We're going to have to "live with it" but we also "live with" measles, mumps etc. because we have a high level of vaccination. It'll be fine and something that hospitals will have to keep an eye on and have plans for. Like most medical things.0
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