When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

Tiredandcranky wrote: »

Yes. That sounds great in theory. But therein lies another question. Say 30% are vaccinated, that is all vulnerable people. Ok great. Now we don’t have nearly enough people vaccinated for it to die out, so it circulates freely in the young. They don’t get sick. Hospitals are grand. But, because we’ve vaccinated against the current strain, that strain finds it harder to replicate because it encounters vaccinated people one time in three. Does this not then put pressure on the virus to mutate into a strain that can evade the vaccine?

In other words, is half a vaccination program a recipe for disaster?

I don’t know the answer by the way and everything I’ve written here could be total nonsense.

Anyone actually know the answer?

What you're describing there sounds like what happens when someone only takes half their course of antibiotics - it kills off the parts of the infection that are most vulnerable to the antibiotic and what survives is the parts that are least susceptible to the antibiotics so it replicates more of the antibiotic resistant bacteria.

Nobody here seems to want to think about the global approach. The fact is that every infection is inopportunity for the virus to mutate and become more resistant to the vaccine, amongst other things. For that reason we will almost certainly not simply vaccinate the vulnerable and go back to normal and allow the virus to go wild amongst the young people.

Tiredandcranky

aido79 wrote: »

How do we exit to cycle of endless cycle of border control would be more like it. Border controls can only be temporary and are not even a realistic solution in most countries including Ireland.

What new variants are resistant to vaccines? Where is the evidence that future strains will be resistant to vaccines?

Is there a reason to believe they won’t be resistant?

The South African one is causing some concern apparently

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/29/1017033/the-south-african-covid-19-variant-is-proving-to-be-a-vaccine-challenge/

The pharma companies seem to think they’ll have to develop new vaccines and in this article Fauci says we need to prepare for the eventuality that we will need new vaccines

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/25/covid-vaccine-virus-variant/%3FoutputType%3Damp

frozen3

El Sueño wrote: »

Pretty much nobody that got vaccinated in any of the trials was hospitalised, including the one in South Africa

*Not saying I'm someone that knows about virology. I'm absolutely not

In the real world

4.3% of the Covid infected after the 2nd Pfizer dose ended up in hospital, 16 out of 371.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-shows-promising-results-from-pfizer-vaccination-campaign-657051/amp

Deeper Blue

frozen3 wrote: »

In the real world

4.3% of the Covid infected after the 2nd Pfizer dose ended up in hospital, 16 out of 371.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-shows-promising-results-from-pfizer-vaccination-campaign-657051/amp

I was referring to the trials

In Israel that's 16 hospitalisations out of 715,425 that took the vaccine, 0.002%

munchkin_utd

I have no clue of the irish numbers for planned vaccine deliveries, probably because the HSE/ Government havent a clue what they are at themselves, NPHET doesnt feel responsible, and if they gave people too much information then they might wind down on compliance on the lockdown, so you wouldnt want that.

But, you'd presume Ireland will get a similar amount of shots as say Germany seeing as all EU countries are getting supplies mainly from the same EU contract and Germany reckons they'll get enough shots by the end of the 3rd quarter to vaccinate 130million people for a country of just 83million . So thats the full population vaccinated with a buffer for any supply issues.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/corona-impfstoff-lieferungen-an-deutschland-vakzine-fuer-50-millionen-bis-ende-juni-a-c5a61e87-be51-4b79-8fd9-3be6d4201bee

In the immediate future, they reckon they'll have enough shots (or 2x for the likes of Pfizer/ Astra Zenica) to cover 50 million people in Germany by the end of June, so thats all OAPs and most older people, and overall that sounds like a summer that could be enjoyed in a reasonably normal manner, if you combine vaccination rates like that with low infection numbers being registered.

As for the virus variations, thats a bit of a problem but it seems to make the vaccines less effective (more people get sick to some extent) rather than not effective at all, and theres plans for booster shots later to help make them more effective against the variants. It also raises the threshold for herd immunity from about 70 to 80% of the population, but by Summer that'll not be an issue and come Autumn everyone who wants a vaccination will have one.

So, theres no need to create a panic, unless you are hosting daily press conferences looking for the public to agree to draconian lockdowns for the next few months.

46 Long

aido79 wrote: »

We also expect that if we have a car accident or some ailment not related to covid that if we need to go to a hospital we will be seen by a medical professional and a bed will be available for treatment.

The likelihood is that you'd end up on a trolley. Our health system has been a basket case for decades and perennially runs over capacity. We've had hundreds of people on trolleys on any given day for years now. One of the wealthiest countries in Europe yet we have one of the lowest number of ICU beds per capita.

aido79 wrote: »

Do you accept that if we were to open everything up tomorrow that there's a possibility that a huge number of people would need hospital treatment within weeks and without that hospital treatment a lot more would die unnecessarily?

I'm not sure how many more times I need to repeat this. Our choices are not a binary between ever more stringent lockdown vs a let it rip approach. The problem is that our approach has never, ever been proportionate at any point since last March. We're stuck with a one-trick pony approach from NPHET, a wishy-washy government and a myopic obsession with Covid numbers to the detriment of everything else.

frozen3

El Sueño wrote: »

I was referring to the trials

In Israel that's 16 hospitalisations out of 715,425 that took the vaccine, 0.002%

For comparison the 8,274,615 population that didn't get 2nd dose had 3,000 go to hospital in that time frame 0.03%

Roughly 15 fold protection from vaccine, which is insanely good

Scaled to whole population thats 3,000 vs 200

Dickie10

i firmly believe we back to level 1 by july, restrictions gone by sept

munchkin_utd

munchkin_utd wrote: »

I have no clue of the irish numbers for planned vaccine deliveries, probably because the HSE/ Government havent a clue what they are at themselves, NPHET doesnt feel responsible, and if they gave people too much information then they might wind down on compliance on the lockdown, so you wouldnt want that.

the Irish times did the research for us, with some relatively good news that Tony and the lads dont want to tell us about (or are they truly inept and cant work out a simple percentage themselves??), and it seems that Ireland will get 4.4 million doses by June

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-in-line-to-get-4-47m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-by-end-of-june-1.4474546

El_Duderino 09

Dickie10 wrote: »

i firmly believe we back to level 1 by july, restrictions gone by sept

I believe you believe that. But that’s because you don’t even pretend to draw conclusions from anything except gut feelings and show absolutely no evidence that you’ve read about the issue from any reliable sources.

Just to illustrate point: why do you think what you said above? And why do you think distancing and masks won’t be needed by September?

Dickie10

Because deaths and hospitalizations will be low. end of. Of course people wil catch covid and some die of it nut people die of disease every day of the week. once numbers are not high theres nothing to see. im sure people can wear masks and social distance if they want to its up to them, if you think this goes on ny longer than June/July you will be disapointed

Hector Savage

FileNotFound wrote: »

Haha the attitudes on boards.ie is so fun - all extremes - its like a little dems v republicans battle

Some fun reading.

Carry on ye daft feckers.

You should listen to the podcast, Luke clearly says as soon as these top 4 groups are vaccinated - hospitalisation numbers will plummet and there will be no real reason to continue restrictions, Pat just dismissed it and said they can't make the same mistake as they did before Christmas - for a scientist he really has lost the plot over this, he can't see the difference between lifting restrictions after x% are vaccinated in summer, then when 0% are vaccinated in the dead of winter ???

Hector Savage

Quazzie wrote: »

There are approximately 700k people over 65 in Ireland. At current rates of vaccination, that will mean we will be nearly at Christmas before even that minority group is vaccinated. 2021 looks to be a right off already

I would be fairly confident that the rate will pick up...

Tazz T

Dickie10 wrote: »

i firmly believe we back to level 1 by july, restrictions gone by sept

Just because deaths are negligible and infections low doesn't mean restrictions won't be gone. This is the problem with a lot of the legislation/fines regarding travel at the moment. We could be greenlist and still be advised against non-essential overseas travel, while requiring PCR tests/vaxpassport and quarantine. Especially if we go down the zero-covid route. Restrictions could also be applied to hospitality and getherings long after they're needed.

As someone who studied epidemiology, last november, I suggested this would be over, with or without a vaccine, in June. Due to winter, loosening of the restrictions over xmas and the UK strain, the third wave hit far sooner than I'd anticipated. I see this done in April, with a couple of blips. I'd be stunned to see anything other than a negligible level of infection over summer with vaccinations, people spending more time outside and simply down to the fact that based on historical precedent the virus will have run its course. The only thing that could throw a spanner in the works of course, would be some really bad vaccine resistant variant coming along.

mcsean2163

gozunda wrote: »

Not only has it bugger all to do with anything.
Especially anything to do with people not observing restrictions.
The article is dated 5 July 2019

I showed instances of Japan not being law abiding and not being particularly socially distanced and alluded to the below study which indicates large spread but without illness.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1

Japan are 146th in terms of testing. They're not testing but more importantly, despite the indicated spread they are not seeing significant illness.

Perhaps diet/ genetics is a bigger factor in Japan. The Japanese are human beings as are we. There is nothing exceptional in their culture that would protect them from covid19.

They have mad parades like us and people who break the law like us.

Lillyfae

Tazz T wrote: »

Just because deaths are negligible and infections low doesn't mean restrictions won't be gone. This is the problem with a lot of the legislation/fines regarding travel at the moment. We could be greenlist and still be advised against non-essential overseas travel, while requiring PCR tests/vaxpassport and quarantine. Especially if we go down the zero-covid route. Restrictions could also be applied to hospitality and getherings long after they're needed.

One thing to remember is that other countries' restrictions will be prohibitive to people coming in for non essential travel aswell, and thus returning.

The country I'm living in is in a weird situation. Even though the numbers have fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, the restrictions brought in in October and tightened further in December and January are being retained indefinitely. They're even talking about further restrictions, I have no clue what more could be done but I'm honestly scared. There has already been civil unrest, and it's soul destroying. I'm sick of hearing about the UK strain now being more dominant and more infectious when the numbers are consistently coming down. I support restrictions as and when needed but I feel this is all political- take care of the people who vote now (65+) because we want to be in power now and forget about tomorrow's voter (18 - 30) because we'll be retired by then.

Dakota Dan

Dickie10 wrote: »

i firmly believe we back to level 1 by july, restrictions gone by sept

Dream on.

El_Duderino 09

Dickie10 wrote: »

Because deaths and hospitalizations will be low. end of. Of course people wil catch covid and some die of it nut people die of disease every day of the week. once numbers are not high theres nothing to see. im sure people can wear masks and social distance if they want to its up to them, if you think this goes on ny longer than June/July you will be disapointed

Ok. So you're basing your assumption on deaths and hospitalisation in Ireland alone? Would that be a fair summary?

Do you even consider the international aspect of the pandemic? Or do you consider changes to the scenario such as the South African and Kent mutations and the potential for future variations that could be more resistant to the virus?

Micky 32

The posts from the forever lockdown merchants and ‘expert’ merchants are hilarious on here and will desperately seek for anything that will hope to keep us that way, the variants ( even though vaccines work against them) is a favourite.

Maybe they’re afraid of losing their relevance on the threads?

Bad news, The vaccines are the begining of the end of this, life will get back to normal, but carry on people. :pac::D

trixi001

Tazz T wrote: »

Just because deaths are negligible and infections low doesn't mean restrictions won't be gone. This is the problem with a lot of the legislation/fines regarding travel at the moment. We could be greenlist and still be advised against non-essential overseas travel, while requiring PCR tests/vaxpassport and quarantine. Especially if we go down the zero-covid route. Restrictions could also be applied to hospitality and getherings long after they're needed.

As someone who studied epidemiology, last november, I suggested this would be over, with or without a vaccine, in June. Due to winter, loosening of the restrictions over xmas and the UK strain, the third wave hit far sooner than I'd anticipated. I see this done in April, with a couple of blips. I'd be stunned to see anything other than a negligible level of infection over summer with vaccinations, people spending more time outside and simply down to the fact that based on historical precedent the virus will have run its course. The only thing that could throw a spanner in the works of course, would be some really bad vaccine resistant variant coming along.

the cases were low last summer and nothing was allowed to open properly, unfortunately i don't see it being any different this summer, the government seem to react to social media more than science and the people on social media seem to support a basically indefinite lockdown, as it could save even 1 life.., never mind the lives, livelihoods, and quality of life it is destroying...this needs to change before we open up again, the people ultimately have the power

nickkinneg

Micky 32 wrote: »

The posts from the forever lockdown merchants and ‘expert’ merchants are hilarious on here and will desperately seek for anything that will hope to keep us that way, the variants ( even though vaccines work against them) is a favourite.

Maybe they’re afraid of losing their relevance on the threads?

Bad news, The vaccines are the begining of the end of this, life will get back to normal, but carry on people. :pac::D

I hope you are right better to be optimistic than pessimistic- I think these vaccines should be the answer hopefully or the silver bullet to all these variant(s) and hopefully economy will open up again in the summer to normal levels again.

mcsean2163

We had over 11 times as many tests per capita as Japan. Not twice as many 11 times as many!!! Let that sink in.

Maybe the cure for covid19 is in not testing for it, nobody in a nursing home in Japan dies of covid19 if they haven't been tested. Remember 20% of all people entering a nursing home in Ireland die within 3 months.

If we don't test, we can pretend they're not dying of covid19 like Japan.

Irish_peppa

Well this is from Irish times....
"Ireland in line to vaccinate half its population by end-June, EU data shows"
So saying that I think we can comfortably predict by next December the bulk of the population should be jabbed. I would predict Xmas this year we will be all chugging pints in the local boozers and from summer 2022 the covid will be a thing of distant memory:cool:

Irish_peppa

Irish_peppa wrote: »

Well this is from Irish times....
"Ireland in line to vaccinate half its population by end-June, EU data shows"
So saying that I think we can comfortably predict by next December the bulk of the population should be jabbed. I would predict Xmas this year we will be all chugging pints in the local boozers and from summer 2022 the covid will be a thing of distant memory:cool:

The "New Normal" didnt last long :cool: :rolleyes:

accensi0n

Irish_peppa wrote: »

Well this is from Irish times....
"Ireland in line to vaccinate half its population by end-June, EU data shows"
So saying that I think we can comfortably predict by next December the bulk of the population should be jabbed. I would predict Xmas this year we will be all chugging pints in the local boozers and from summer 2022 the covid will be a thing of distant memory:cool:

Vaccinate, as in 2 doses?

5 million doses administered by end of June seems very unlikely.

nickkinneg

Do people not need to get a follow up booster or jab or something afterwards though before we are all back chugging pints in the boozer by Xmas? To stay vaccinated? Haven’t been keeping up to date on it all?

Roger_007

accensi0n wrote: »

Vaccinate, as in 2 doses?

5 million doses administered by end of June seems very unlikely.

There will also be a massive increase in repetitive strain injury to the vaccinators?

Micky 32

nickkinneg wrote: »

I hope you are right better to be optimistic than pessimistic- I think these vaccines should be the answer hopefully or the silver bullet to all these variant(s) and hopefully economy will open up again in the summer to normal levels again.

Even though i can understand the concern of the ‘variants’ vaccines can be tweaked if necessary with a booster.

Also from my own reading up on these this particular virus can’t mutate much or it will lose it’s functionality. Maybe mutations isn’t a bad thing, it could begin weakening.

nickkinneg

Roger_007 wrote: »

There will also be a massive increase in repetitive strain injury to the vaccinators?

2 jabs maybe about manageable - but if it becomes like multiples of jabs - like playing whack-a-mole I would foresee a bit of a problem

BULLER

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Maybe the cure for covid19 is in not testing for it, nobody in a nursing home in Japan dies of covid19 if they haven't been tested.

If we don't test, we can pretend they're not dying of covid19 like Japan.

There was 1,850 people in hospitals throughout Ireland last week, on oxygen, struggling to breathe, who might disagree with you.