When will it all end?

HalfAndHalf

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Let us wait and see how the rest of the year unfolds

Yeah that’s all we can do, I’m just being realistic that this year will generally be a right off, not expecting to be having pints in a pub this summer or going off on holiday somewhere hot.

But will be happy if I can get a road trip in late summertime.

jmlad2020

It won't go away this year

Government will likely lessen restrictions from late spring to summer when a bit of positive news comes out but it will probably be a repeat of 2020 tbh.

CalamariFritti

Deleted User wrote: »

We have vaccines now. Astra Zeneca and Moderna will arrive. Maybe Johnson & Johnson as well. Delivery will ramp up. 3 million of our most vulnerable will be vaccinated and then watch the hospital figures fall.

I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but that is the stance I choose to take. Others may take a different one. The truth is that we don't actually know.

Not having a go or anything but the phrase 3 million of our most vulnerable didnt sit right with me. We have just under 700k over 65s. We have not quite 5 million in total. Surely not more than or even anywhere near 3 million are vulnerable?

Chivito550

A lot of lockdown advocates are introverts who don't like meeting up with people. Lockdown is a convenient reason to not have to see too many people. Not surprising that there are people pushing lockdowns into 2022 and beyond.

Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker player, said that if he had his way he'd have lockdown go on for 5 years, and that he loves not having to talk to people.

Spanishpoint

Chivito550 wrote: »

A lot of lockdown advocates are introverts who don't like meeting up with people. Lockdown is a convenient reason to not have to see too many people. Not surprising that there are people pushing lockdowns into 2022 and beyond.

Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker player, said that if he had his way he'd have lockdown go on for 5 years, and that he loves not having to talk to people.

Do you also mean that a lot of businessmen don't care about people, just money?

Chivito550

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not having a go or anything but the phrase 3 million of our most vulnerable didnt sit right with me. We have just under 700k over 65s. We have not quite 5 million in total. Surely not more than or even anywhere near 3 million are vulnerable?

1.25 million people in the Republic of Ireland are obese. All these people are 'at risk' , as much as people like to ignore it.

HalfAndHalf

Chivito550 wrote: »

A lot of lockdown advocates are introverts who don't like meeting up with people. Lockdown is a convenient reason to not have to see too many people. Not surprising that there are people pushing lockdowns into 2022 and beyond.

Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker player, said that if he had his way he'd have lockdown go on for 5 years, and that he loves not having to talk to people.

I haven’t seen a singly post that could be construed as a ‘lockdown advocate! In this thread?

Nobody has said that lockdown will last all year, just that ‘normal’ won’t be fully back this year.

beachhead

At the current cock up rate by the government to control the virus so called normal will be 2022 with mask wearing advised.Vaccinations will be lucky to be completed by end of 2021 but don't forget the refuseniks who will delay "normal".Don't forget the vaccinated who will go crazy with the freedom they think it gives them.Then you have people coming into the country and the joke that is/will be the tracking system and the good people of our sainted isle going anywhere they give get to and bringing back god knows what and not giving true contact details and of course the cock up that is/will be tracking of them.Maybe it'll be 2023 when you don't have to wear a mask in a shop or restaurant.Oh,forget pubs they're finished.

MayoSalmon

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We didn't have vaccines then.

Or variants

CIARAN_BOYLE

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

So you’re saying they’ll be a mass revolt against restrictions if we’re not allowed to do what we want again.....by March?

We just had a mass revolt against guidance and restrictions.

Christmas.

Surely it's not time to talk about another one.

Harry Palmr

I expect the Covid jab will be like the flu one - you get it if you are old, high risk or front line. The rest of you can take your chances or pay to get one, which may be required for international travel to certain countries.

HalfAndHalf

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

We just had a mass revolt against guidance and restrictions.

Christmas.

Surely it's not time to talk about another one.

I wasn’t, Bertie was.....

John O.Groats

accensi0n wrote: »

It'll all end for the elderly by the summer, they'll be skulling pints, going to festivals and going at it like rabbits, all while pointing and laughing hysterically at the healthy young and middle aged.

Hopefully you will soon wake up from your vivid dreams and smell the coffee.

Richard Hillman

normanoffside wrote: »

He'll probably want a movie, who will he want to play him?

I was watching Unforgiven yesterday and my thoughts was that nobody, absolutely nobody plays a Villain in a position of power like Gene Hackman. I can imagine (with dramatic licence of course) Gene Hackman walking into a dead pub in March 2020, staring the barkeep out of it and then doing a job on him with several pistol whips before flipping the closed sign around.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not having a go or anything but the phrase 3 million of our most vulnerable didnt sit right with me. We have just under 700k over 65s. We have not quite 5 million in total. Surely not more than or even anywhere near 3 million are vulnerable?

Erm yes. Numbers are not my strong point *embarrassed face*

Richard Hillman

Chivito550 wrote: »

A lot of lockdown advocates are introverts who don't like meeting up with people. Lockdown is a convenient reason to not have to see too many people. Not surprising that there are people pushing lockdowns into 2022 and beyond.

Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker player, said that if he had his way he'd have lockdown go on for 5 years, and that he loves not having to talk to people.

I would be a very solitary creature and loved Lockdown I but Lockdown II nearly sent me over the edge. I had 1 face to face conversation with a human being in 8 weeks. And that was a conversation with somebody that works in the Off Licence about football for maybe about 2 minutes.

I haven't properly spoke to a human being in 8 days now apart from being in a shop and asking for a packet of cigarettes.

And I'm the type of person that can go on holidays by myself. Even for me it's becoming torturous.

I think its simplistic to assume that group A prefer lockdowns and Group B don't. The whole introvert and extrovert thing leaves me cold. Humans are multi faceted and complex creatures.

Micky 32

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Or variants

From what i have been reading about “variants” is that this particular virus to remain successful and virulent can’t really mutate too much. If it significantly mutates enough to be resistant to the current vaccines the virus maybe kicking itself in the nuts. It would lose a lot of functionality and therefore weaken considerably.

Anyway back on topic I’m quite sure by the autumn normality will be in reach.

Terrlock

It will end when the new technocratic worldwide cabal of gansters have completed and utter control on the population.

bb1234567

snowcat wrote: »

Anyone hoping the death rate will fall rapidly with vaccines are in for a shock surprise. It wont happen. The people who die with Covid are 90 % on the way out already. UK have been vaccinating for a month allready and there is still the same death rate. Israel no real reduction in death rate with 15% of population vacinated

The vaccine comes in two doses, and does not provide sufficient protection for a few weeks even after the second dose is administered, and there's a gap of several weeks in between both shots. Deaths from COVID will be high globally for another few months, even in places Israel and UK with high vaccination rates.

In the UK there is a 12 week gap between the two doses, although Pfizer recommend against spacing doses further than 3 weeks apart from one another.
https://www.ft.com/content/7161dea0-4966-442b-9876-29cdf1b246f8

So no need to be so negative , anybody who expected rapid reduction in deaths was just ignorant, but the reduced death rate will come of course.

douglashyde

It isn't the extreme end of state control ending that concerns me (let's call it Level 2-5).

Vaccines won't eliminate this virus (which maybe people don't understand), it's ENDEMIC and won't go away. It's also not clear if vaccines stop the spread either.

My concern is, I expect to see more long term or even permanent changes to rules, requirements & norms:

Some guesses:
- Papers to show you've had all your shots to travel (every year)
- Required mask wearing publicly indoors during 'covid' season (every year)
- Max attendance on gigs/events/clubs to avoid 'super spreader events'
- Reduced closing times of pubs/clubs permanently
- - Required seating in pubs/clubs/gigs during 'covid season'
- Continued testing for CV en masse
- At least until mid 2022 - limitations on our private gatherings - weddings / house parties. Got a 2021 wedding, not a chance they will allow more than 50 at it.

We've made our bed about how serious COVID is, it's a killer disease comparable to Ebola and we'll we'll goose step to Tony's beat for a bit longer yet.

Of course... I hope I'm dead wrong.

douglashyde

douglashyde wrote: »

It's also not clear if vaccines stop the spread either.

What do you mean?

Micky 32

douglashyde wrote: »

it's a killer disease comparable to Ebola

LOL Ebola has a death rate of up to 90%, it just highlights the drivel you just posted :rolleyes:

John O.Groats

douglashyde wrote: »

It isn't the extreme end of state control ending that concerns me (let's call it Level 2-5).

Vaccines won't eliminate this virus (which maybe people don't understand), it's ENDEMIC and won't go away. It's also not clear if vaccines stop the spread either.

My concern is, I expect to see more long term or even permanent changes to rules, requirements & norms:

Some guesses:
- Papers to show you've had all your shots to travel (every year)
- Required mask wearing publicly indoors during 'covid' season (every year)
- Max attendance on gigs/events/clubs to avoid 'super spreader events'
- Reduced closing times of pubs/clubs permanently
- - Required seating in pubs/clubs/gigs during 'covid season'
- Continued testing for CV en masse
- At least until mid 2022 - limitations on our private gatherings - weddings / house parties. Got a 2021 wedding, not a chance they will allow more than 50 at it.

We've made our bed about how serious COVID is, it's a killer disease comparable to Ebola and we'll we'll goose step to Tony's beat for a bit longer yet.

Of course... I hope I'm dead wrong.

Apart from the smartarse comment that I highlighted in your post I would think your predictions are fairly accurate.

Micky 32

John O.Groats wrote: »

Apart from the smartarse comment that I higlighted in your post I would think your predictions are fairly accurate.

Thankfully the predictions you agree with will highly unlikely to exist once the population is vaccinated. They are 90% effective and if anyone does get sick they will be far less disease so the measures will be very temporary.

boege

From available data on delivery dates for the existing orders of the two approved vaccines the maximum we can possibly vaccinate by this coming September is 1.6m people. If the Oxford vaccine comes on line (approved and supplied) that could add another 1.6m people, if all delivered by September.

The above figures are from the governments strategy document and some of the approved vaccines are already behind the earliest estimated approval date.

Optimistically, the best I can see if half the population vaccinated by September (~2.4m). Currently levels are 40,000 doses per week of the Pfizer-biontech vaccine and current expert opinion is that the ramp up will be around summer time.

We have no visibility yet of the impact of vaccinations will have on hospitalisations but I think as the percentage of vaccinated people grows we will begin to get more visibility of timelines for reduction of restrictions. More than 50% of hospital admissions to date were over 65 and they represent about 20% of the population. i.e. if you vaccinate this 20% of the population you potentially half hospitalisations.

Micky 32

boege wrote: »

From available data on delivery dates for the existing orders of the two approved vaccines the maximum we can possibly vaccinate by this coming September is 1.6m people. If the Oxford vaccine comes on line (approved and supplied) that could add another 1.6m people, if all delivered by September.

The above figures are from the governments strategy document and some of the approved vaccines are already behind the earliest estimated approval date.

Optimistically, the best I can see if half the population vaccinated by September (~2.4m). Currently levels are 40,000 doses per week of the Pfizer-biontech vaccine and current expert opinion is that the ramp up will be around summer time.

We have no visibility yet of the impact of vaccinations will have on hospitalisations but I think as the percentage of vaccinated people grows we will begin to get more visibility of timelines for reduction of restrictions. More than 50% of hospital admissions to date were over 65 and they represent about 20% of the population. i.e. if you vaccinate this 20% of the population you potentially half hospitalisations.

Did you miss this? Reid from the HSE


Reid told RTE's This Week: "We will meet what ever supply we get in terms of delivery, we do foresee coming into of the deliveries arrived between Moderna, Astra Zeneca, probably a million a month arriving.

"That's what we all want to see, that's what we're mobilising to do.

"Just to give... reassurance, this week alone, we planned to do over 35,000 vaccinations, we will exceed that by today, I'm happy to say.

"We will now accelerate, we have accelerated the most vulnerable groups, which are elderly people in nursing homes and they will be completed now over the next two weeks instead of the next three.

"We will meet supply with vaccinations."


I see that nearly 2 million flu vaccines given in the last few months

John O.Groats

Micky 32 wrote: »

Thankfully the predictions you agree with will highly unlikely to exist once the population is vaccinated. They are 90% effective and if anyone does get sick they will be far less disease so the measures will be very temporary.

Really? Well we will see and I believe you will be mistaken again. Still if you want to imagine otherwise then go right ahead.

Micky 32

John O.Groats wrote: »

Really? Well we will see and I believe you will be mistaken again. Still if you want to imagine otherwise then go right ahead.

Mistaken again? What are you waffling on about? Yes by autumn normality will be in reach things will be hugely different, sorry to disappoint you

One thing that may happen is proof of vaccination entering a country outside of the EU like the USA etc. I’d have no issue with that whatsoever.

John O.Groats

Micky 32 wrote: »

Mistaken again? What are you waffling on about? Yes by autumn normality will be in reach, sorry to disappoint you

One thing that may happen is proof of vaccination entering a country. I’d have no issue with that whatsoever.

As I said time will tell. Take it easy pal.;):)