When will it all end?

Natterjack from Kerry

SandraMcCarthy wrote: »

Many vaccines are on the market now. It will be ended soon.

Not the case with Corona. No more than the tamer winter flue has been wiped by vaccines.

Hmob

jackboy wrote: »

This has gone on long enough to change people’s behaviour in at least the medium term. Will we accept a massive trolley crises due to annual flu going forward? Or will we mandate masks and possibly implement winter restrictions to prevent that?

Close bars and nightclubs every winter going forward?

Can't see it

Relaxation of resrictions elsewhere will influence our actions

Natterjack from Kerry

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Not with the way this Govt is dragging its feet.

Govt is doing very well indeed. Flying high in the EU rankings, showing that the logistics element in the govt's responsibility has been fully up to the task according to the supply availability. To be seen if it remains as good as the vaccine delivery quantities ramp up now, but for the moment, no case for criticism. Kudos to them. Stephen Donnelly and HSE deliver.

SheepsClothing

ShadowTech wrote: »

Would you favour blanket travel restrictions or restrictions to similarly vaccinated areas?

I ask because so many of these debates are just absolute extremes. e.g. lock down / no lock down, travel restrictions / no travel restrictions, etc.

I personally would think that as we and other countries get to the point of having a majority of their population vaccinated we would start by opening travel to those countries even if the world is not 100% vaccinated. For us the logical locations would be other places in the EU.

I think there should be blanket travel restrictions, until Europe has completed it's initial vaccination roll out, then gradual easing/tightening depending on what is happening in other parts of the world.

SheepsClothing

Hego Damask wrote: »

Yes but according to you vaccine resistant mutations are a certainty, so what then ?

I never said anything was certain, just that there is a good enough chance of a mutation that we should be protecting our borders, while the virus is prevelant around the world.

If in the event a strain emerged which was proven to be resistant to a dangerous extent, mandatory quarantines should be brought in until a retooled booster vaccine could be rolled out to the population. We should at all costs protect the domestic economy and the freedom of the population within the country.

El_Duderino 09

Hector Savage wrote: »

Plenty of examples in the article, It's pay walled so I put it up on a google doc

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Hx4uJp2-wIz33G9rOyvAQbTH_XDHhzWayKBj4qJ-mC8/edit?usp=sharing

Could you put it in your own words and with some references to Ireland? It is your point that the uk is making policy for Ireland?

“Shifting the goalposts” sounds nefarious, but it’s just a matter of reacting to the situation as new information is discovered.

I suppose could have “set the goalposts” in concrete last March and then should have ignored any new information and stuck rigidly to a 3 week lockdown and then back to full normality - health service would have been overrun, the virus would have run rampant, many more would have died oh hospital floors and at home. But the goalposts would have remained in place and unmolested.

Using Boris Johnson’s promises as an example of target slippage, is a terrible idea. I can hardly think of a single thing where he hasn’t massively over promised and under delivered. He just sets a deadline that makes people get off his back and shrug out off when they miss the target by a mile.

So let’s explore why “shifting goalposts” is a good or bad idea. What should they do when they’ve set a target and then new information comes to light? Or a politician makes a political promise which his scientists are telling him is not sensible. From your article: “ Within days of it being set, scientists were briefing that it was highly unlikely and suggesting new targets would need to be met.
Minutes from a Sage meeting on Jan 7 show experts believed that death reductions from vaccinations were unlikely to be seen until "later in February", while "pressures on the NHS will take longer to reverse".

The politician set an unrealistic target, then the scientists meet and say “well, that’s not realistic”. Then they miss the target (obviously). I say the solution is to be realistic from the outset and say when they don’t know. What do you think they should do and when should the goalposts be set in concrete so that they are immovable even in the the face of new information?

jackboy

Hmob wrote: »

Close bars and nightclubs every winter going forward?

Can't see it

Relaxation of resrictions elsewhere will influence our actions

It might be a bit extreme but there will be some pressure at least to take some actions.

The biggest change may be in the workplace. There will likely be war if someone turns up to work even with a mild cold going forward so absenteeism will probably increase. As for people coughing and choking around shops with no mask on, that will be frowned on to say the least.

landofthetree

SandraMcCarthy wrote: »

Many vaccines are on the market now. It will be ended soon.

We wont even have over 70s fully vaccinated till at least mid-May.


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40222058.html

The UK has a chance of having all its adult population vaccinated by then.


The Irish Gov have make a big **** up depending on the EU. No wonder Germany broke the rules and sourced additional vaccines.

Quazzie

landofthetree wrote: »

We wont even have over 70s fully vaccinated till at least mid-May.


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40222058.html

The UK has a chance of having all its adult population vaccinated by then.


The Irish Gov have make a big **** up depending on the EU. No wonder Germany broke the rules and sourced additional vaccines.

If Germany has sourced additional vaccines then how come Ireland has 4.4/100 people vaccinated, but Germany only has 3.7/100 people. In fact, after Denmark, Ireland has more than anyone else in the EU.

Samsonsmasher

jackboy wrote: »

It might be a bit extreme but there will be some pressure at least to take some actions.

The biggest change may be in the workplace. There will likely be war if someone turns up to work even with a mild cold going forward so absenteeism will probably increase. As for people coughing and choking around shops with no mask on, that will be frowned on to say the least.

In other words we will never get back to normal???

Micky 32

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

In other words we will never get back to normal???

Yes we will.

Hmob

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

In other words we will never get back to normal???

Those posts are assuming current thinking

That will change when restrictions are relaxed elsewhere and hospitalizations decline

Expect a return to normal with possibly limited mask mandates sometimes

Quazzie

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

In other words we will never get back to normal???

Do you consider people invading your personal space, and coughing and snotting all over you to be normal?

saabsaab

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

In other words we will never get back to normal???

Yes but not 'old' normal but a new normal. This type of event often causes changes. For one I'd say Global air travel will suffer.

Micky 32

saabsaab wrote: »

For one I'd say Global air travel will suffer.

Temporarily until countries complete their vaccination programs and the vaccines yield their results. The pandemic ( as others have in history) will pass and the vaccines will speed up that process.

Of course we’ll all be more cautious especially with hygiene etc but it shouldn’t stop us enjoying the little things in life once again.

ujjjjjjjjj

landofthetree wrote: »

We wont even have over 70s fully vaccinated till at least mid-May.


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40222058.html

The UK has a chance of having all its adult population vaccinated by then.


The Irish Gov have make a big **** up depending on the EU. No wonder Germany broke the rules and sourced additional vaccines.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/uk-should-share-spare-covid-vaccines-with-ireland-mcdonald-says-1.4478308?mode=amp

In the article if you read through it says that the Dept of Health has confirmed that they won't try and source vaccines outside of the EU purchase agreement and have confirmed that there is nothing to stop them doing so.

This to me is entirely unacceptable and a total failure of government. Considering the impact lockdown is having on society and the costs incurred this is utter insanity and a derogation of duty.

GooglePlus

So the AZ vaccine isn't that effective against the South African gene. I wonder if they're looking into the possible connection with the fact that AZ carried out their trials there, so is there potential that this vaccine caused the mutation, as the virus developed a form of resistance? If that's the case, it wouldn't be good news.

Micky 32

GooglePlus wrote: »

So the AZ vaccine isn't that effective against the South African gene. I wonder if they're looking into the possible connection with the fact that AZ carried out their trials there, so is there potential that this vaccine caused the mutation, as the virus developed a form of mutation? If that's the case, it wouldn't be good news.

It’s still very effective. Experts are saying with a booster vaccine should help stay ahead of it because they think the virus can’t mutate much more to outrun vaccines.

Hmob

GooglePlus wrote: »

So the AZ vaccine isn't that effective against the South African gene. I wonder if they're looking into the possible connection with the fact that AZ carried out their trials there, so is there potential that this vaccine caused the mutation, as the virus developed a form of mutation? If that's the case, it wouldn't be good news.

What?

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s still very effective. Experts are saying with a booster vaccine should help stay ahead of it because they think the virus can’t mutate much more to outrun vaccines.

Yeah it’s fairly mixed news without much certainty. Preliminary reports that the vaccine isn’t as effective against the SA variant and preliminary reports that they think they can mitigate it. It’s all new information and hopefully they will use it to find out more.

Or maybe they should ignore the new information lest anyone accuse them of “shifting the goalposts”.

In all seriousness, even if it’s not brilliant news, it’s good that they’re learning the information so they can react to it.

hynesie08

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/uk-should-share-spare-covid-vaccines-with-ireland-mcdonald-says-1.4478308?mode=amp

In the article if you read through it says that the Dept of Health has confirmed that they won't try and source vaccines outside of the EU purchase agreement and have confirmed that there is nothing to stop them doing so.

This to me is entirely unacceptable and a total failure of government. Considering the impact lockdown is having on society and the costs incurred this is utter insanity and a derogation of duty.

Cool story, it'd be a bigger waste to spend 3 times the rrp for a load of vaccines that won't arrive until after everyone is vaccinated though.....

Roger_007

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s still very effective. Experts are saying with a booster vaccine should help stay ahead of it because they think the virus can’t mutate much more to outrun vaccines.

And in other news they thought the Titanic was unsinkable.

Natterjack from Kerry

ShadowTech wrote: »

Once we reach that point, which should be later this year, the need for restrictions disappears. If your predictions come true and for some reason we are subjected to more years of restrictions then we have a more serious problem in that our civil liberties have been taken past the emergency situation we're currently dealing with.

Civil liberties will be the least of our problems.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/07/scientists-call-for-rethink-as-doubts-grow-about-achieving-herd-immunity

ShadowTech

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Civil liberties will be the least of our problems.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/07/scientists-call-for-rethink-as-doubts-grow-about-achieving-herd-immunity

The article you linked to reinforces what I was saying. Though the virus is mutating all of the vaccines still show some level of effectiveness and most importantly a reduction in severe illness and hospitalisations.

If the goal has truly shifted to complete eradication then I can understand why you'd say normal life is essentially gone for decades to come; this certainly seems to be an endemic illness now. On the other hand, if our goal is to protect the health service and treat this the same way we do with the other respiratory illnesses that we live with all the time (influenza, other coronaviruses, etc.) then as the article says, we throw our best vaccines at the most vulnerable and reduce the strain on the hospitals.

ShadowTech

jackboy wrote: »

This has gone on long enough to change people’s behaviour in at least the medium term. Will we accept a massive trolley crises due to annual flu going forward? Or will we mandate masks and possibly implement winter restrictions to prevent that?

The scenario actually does seem plausible! :eek: I wonder if people will accept that long-term though. I can imagine a lot of pushback if our European neighbours are open as normal and we're sitting here with masks and outdoor dining in the dead of winter.

I would also hope that after this mess is over there would be a real effort to enhance the health service.

dublin_paul

I'm afraid that it'll take a huge amount of effort by the public/electorate to have restrictions dropped, an election and new government maybe? I feel so imprisoned, and the future looks bleak. The government really want to hold us in the restrictions, ass covering and PR reasons... who wants to be the government who drops restrictions again and see cases go wildly out of control? Not this one, not other potential governments either. Are we just going to keep restrictions going and bail out retail/airlines/everyone else? Or just let them die? At what point will the government change their strategy with regard to virus management? I don't know, sorry.. bit of a negative comment. I'm doing quite well mentally, especially compared to many people I know and read about. But jeez, grim grim times.

Bit cynical

We'll see other countries lifting restrictions and eventually the public here in Ireland will want some easing of restrictions too.

dublin_paul

dublin_paul wrote: »

I'm afraid that it'll take a huge amount of effort by the public/electorate to have restrictions dropped, an election and new government maybe? I feel so imprisoned, and the future looks bleak. The government really want to hold us in the restrictions, ass covering and PR reasons... who wants to be the government who drops restrictions again and see cases go wildly out of control? Not this one, not other potential governments either. Are we just going to keep restrictions going and bail out retail/airlines/everyone else? Or just let them die? At what point will the government change their strategy with regard to virus management? I don't know, sorry.. bit of a negative comment. I'm doing quite well mentally, especially compared to many people I know and read about. But jeez, grim grim times.

meanwhile vaccines in the UK and Northern Ireland are flying..........we're gonna see them opening up in early Summer at this rate, travelling, flying, having holidays.......that's when it will really get tough and we will realise just how imprisoned we are here with restrictions.

josip

• April 24th for over 70s when they've received their 2nd dose.
• July 1st for anyone leaving Ireland for the summer.
• August 30th for kids returning to normal school for the first time in 18 months.

El_Duderino 09

josip wrote: »

• April 24th for over 70s when they've received their 2nd dose.
• July 1st for anyone leaving Ireland for the summer.
• August 30th for kids returning to normal school for the first time in 18 months.

Where are these numbers from?