When will it all end?

josip

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Where are these numbers from?

Back Of Envelope/Crystal Ball/Head/Butt

I think getting all the over 70s fully vaccinated will be the first significant 'end' for the country. So I picked a date in mid April that lines up with recent HSE announcements.

For those of us leaving Ireland for the summer at the start of July, it will be the end of negativity, tut tutting and moral policing. Hopefully that will already have ended before July, but if not, then at least we will no longer be in that environment.

By the end of the summer, with most people vaccinated, there will be few people wanting restrictions to continue. All teachers will already have been vaccinated and even if some of the younger children haven't, there will be little rationale for the level of restrictions they have had to endure for this school year. The windows might be kept open for September while the last of the children are being vaccinated, but I can't see there being much more than that.

El_Duderino 09

josip wrote: »

Back Of Envelope/Crystal Ball/Head/Butt

I think getting all the over 70s fully vaccinated will be the first significant 'end' for the country. So I picked a date in mid April that lines up with recent HSE announcements.

For those of us leaving Ireland for the summer at the start of July, it will be the end of negativity, tut tutting and moral policing. Hopefully that will already have ended before July, but if not, then at least we will no longer be in that environment.

By the end of the summer, with most people vaccinated, there will be few people wanting restrictions to continue. All teachers will already have been vaccinated and even if some of the younger children haven't, there will be little rationale for the level of restrictions they have had to endure for this school year. The windows might be kept open for September while the last of the children are being vaccinated, but I can't see there being much more than that.

I think that’s very optimistic. No harm in dreaming but I wouldn’t set my heart on any of that.

Unless something drastically changes then most people won’t be vaccinated by the end of summer. Whether you count the end of summer as the end of July or august, nobody has suggested they will even attempt to vaccinate the under 18s by then.

Back before the program even started, they wanted to vaccinate 70% of the adult population by the end of summer if everything goes to plan. And things have to gone to plan in January. Things will pick up as supply of vaccines increases, but I wouldn’t rely on the early estimates.

Realistically, the warm months will be much better and restrictions will be reduced. And that’s great news. They will vaccinate as many people as they can before the weather cools and transmissions rise again. Then it will be a matter of seeing how many restrictions need to be reimposed during the cold months while they continue to vaccinate people as best they can.

Hopefully there won’t need to be any full lockdowns ever again. And businesses can reopen and stay open, even if restrictions need to be increased from time to time.

I think that’s realistic. But I’ve no idea what will happen with travel and I’ve no idea what happens if more vaccine resistant strains arise.

Hector Savage

Deleted User wrote: »

meanwhile vaccines in the UK and Northern Ireland are flying..........we're gonna see them opening up in early Summer at this rate, travelling, flying, having holidays.......that's when it will really get tough and we will realise just how imprisoned we are here with restrictions.

Well even in the UK they are admitting this

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/07/restrictions-large-gatherings-likely-next-years/

So, here it is pasted on a google doc fyi ...
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TSXZMxjJ4IXnNm5YVDHctbPoFLjTZNxc6vai2LpETc4/edit?usp=sharing

Restrictions on large gatherings are likely “for the next few years”, the scientist leading the UK’s Covid symptom app study has warned.

Prof Tim Spector, from King’s College London, predicted that large sporting events and big weddings with international guests will remain on hold long after the second wave recedes.

The epidemiologist, who provides the most up-to-date rolling study on infection levels, said social distancing, mask-wearing and handwashing should continue into the future.

However, he called for the return of outdoor gatherings as soon as schools reopen, possibly as early as next month.

Hector Savage

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think that’s very optimistic. No harm in dreaming but I wouldn’t set my heart on any of that.

Unless something drastically changes then most people won’t be vaccinated by the end of summer. Whether you count the end of summer as the end of July or august, nobody has suggested they will even attempt to vaccinate the under 18s by then.

Back before the program even started, they wanted to vaccinate 70% of the adult population by the end of summer if everything goes to plan. And things have to gone to plan in January. Things will pick up as supply of vaccines increases, but I wouldn’t rely on the early estimates.

Realistically, the warm months will be much better and restrictions will be reduced. And that’s great news. They will vaccinate as many people as they can before the weather cools and transmissions rise again. Then it will be a matter of seeing how many restrictions need to be reimposed during the cold months while they continue to vaccinate people as best they can.

Hopefully there won’t need to be any full lockdowns ever again. And businesses can reopen and stay open, even if restrictions need to be increased from time to time.

I think that’s realistic. But I’ve no idea what will happen with travel and I’ve no idea what happens if more vaccine resistant strains arise.

Gonna frame this and hang it up

Hector Savage

I get the logic of restrictions continuing when it's only vulnerable vaccinated, there is a case for health service being slammed by younger healthy people - even taking into account the relatively small % that will become seriously ill.

But when most/all of the adult population are vaccinated I do not see the logic in this - unless they want to aim for zero covid, which is a ridiculous pipe dream for an illness which is clearly endemic now.

polesheep

Hector Savage wrote: »

I get the logic of restrictions continuing when it's only vulnerable vaccinated, there is a case for health service being slammed by younger healthy people - even taking into account the relatively small % that will become seriously ill.

But when most/all of the adult population are vaccinated I do not see the logic in this - unless they want to aim for zero covid, which is a ridiculous pipe dream for an illness which is clearly endemic now.

Give them an inch and they will take a mile. There is no evidence that the health service will be slammed by young healthy people.

Chivito550

Jesus, some people on this thread are pathetic. Obsessing over what MIGHT happen as a reason to keep draconian measures in place indefinitely.

A crazed fascist dictator MIGHT overthrow the Italian government and start World War 3.

An Astoroid MIGHT hit planet Earth and we all die instantly.

A lion MIGHT break out of Dublin Zoo and kill an innocent jogger in Phoenix Park.

You MIGHT die in the next 5 minutes of a heart attack.

An IT terrorist MIGHT hack into systems, deliberately crashing self-driving trains and trams.

MIGHT, MIGHT, MIGHT.

..........

But it probably won't happen.

Existing long term rather than living because of something that MIGHT happen? Give over.

Restrictions are to flatten the curve and protect the health system. Once that is achieved and numbers in hospitals dwindle and the majority of people are vaccinated then this is over, whether introverts who love not having to speak to people like it or not.

Make no mistake, these advocates of permanent restrictions are one of three things:

1) Introverts who dislike human connection
2) People who are financially better off because of all this
3) People who use such hopeless predictions as a coping mechanism. Aim low and you'll never be disappointed and all that.

josip

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

...
Back before the program even started, they wanted to vaccinate 70% of the adult population by the end of summer if everything goes to plan. And things have to gone to plan in January. Things will pick up as supply of vaccines increases, but I wouldn’t rely on the early estimates.
...

I agree it's optimistic, especially the normal return to school in September.
Someone posted these estimates over on the vaccines thread.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html

Not sure how accurate they are, but with 12 million doses estimated by the end of Q3, there's a lot of contingency for inaccuracy/supply issues, while still being able to vaccinate 70% of the 4 million or so adults.

El_Duderino 09

josip wrote: »

I agree it's optimistic, especially the normal return to school in September.
Someone posted these estimates over on the vaccines thread.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html

Not sure how accurate they are, but with 12 million doses estimated by the end of Q3, there's a lot of contingency for inaccuracy/supply issues, while still being able to vaccinate 70% of the 4 million or so adults.

That’s great news that they’re ready to begin trials on younger people. It doesn’t mean they’ll be vaccinated by September, as the same supply limitations apply, or even the end of the year which means we’re still likely back into some restrictions when the weather cools down towards the end of they year.

Brilliant news for further down the road that that are testing vaccinations on younger people. But unless they massively ramp up the supply of vaccines, then it won’t be solved this year.

When you say “return to normal” in September, are you including masks and distancing as normal?

robbiezero

dublin_paul wrote: »

I'm afraid that it'll take a huge amount of effort by the public/electorate to have restrictions dropped, an election and new government maybe? I feel so imprisoned, and the future looks bleak. The government really want to hold us in the restrictions, ass covering and PR reasons... who wants to be the government who drops restrictions again and see cases go wildly out of control? Not this one, not other potential governments either. Are we just going to keep restrictions going and bail out retail/airlines/everyone else? Or just let them die? At what point will the government change their strategy with regard to virus management? I don't know, sorry.. bit of a negative comment. I'm doing quite well mentally, especially compared to many people I know and read about. But jeez, grim grim times.

They will only very very slowly drop the restrictions.
Hospitality rightly or wrongly is blamed for the Christmas surge, no doubt it contributed, but I certainly think if it had not been open, we would have had the huge surge anyway and people would be blaming the Government for not opening hospitality and having controlled environments rather than house parties.

After the Christmas debacle, the Government will be very reluctant to just lift travel or house mingling restrictions in a single swoop for fear of another surge.
What will likely happen like last summer is that the people themselves will start ignoring them bit by bit which probably suits, as it will be a more gradual easing of restrictions rather than a sudden "free for all".
Last summer most people I knew were breaking travel restrictions, meeting for garden soirees, indoors etc long before the restrictions on them were lifted. I see the same happening again.

El_Duderino 09

robbiezero wrote: »

They will only very very slowly drop the restrictions.
Hospitality rightly or wrongly is blamed for the Christmas surge, no doubt it contributed, but I certainly think if it had not been open, we would have had the huge surge anyway and people would be blaming the Government for not opening hospitality and having controlled environments rather than house parties.

After the Christmas debacle, the Government will be very reluctant to just lift travel or house mingling restrictions in a single swoop for fear of another surge.
What will likely happen like last summer is that the people themselves will start ignoring them bit by bit which probably suits, as it will be a more gradual easing of restrictions rather than a sudden "free for all".
Last summer most people I knew were breaking travel restrictions, meeting for garden soirees, indoors etc long before the restrictions on them were lifted. I see the same happening again.

Yeah but some people will break the rules and let everyone down. How someone behaves in an emergency says a lot about them. Some people can be relied upon to behave mostly well, most of the time.

A few months ago we had lots of posts given gout about travellers or young people not adhering to the rules. Now we have people virtue signalling about how they will stop following the rules because they're such big rebels. The travellers and young people were ridiculous for flouting the rules but the people saying they'll break the rules are looking for reassurance that they're doing it for great reasons.

Whatever way those people justify it to themselves and each other, doesn't really matter. They're the ones who are helping to drag the whole thing out for longer than it needs to.

josip

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That’s great news that they’re ready to begin trials on younger people. It doesn’t mean they’ll be vaccinated by September, as the same supply limitations apply, or even the end of the year which means we’re still likely back into some restrictions when the weather cools down towards the end of they year.

Brilliant news for further down the road that that are testing vaccinations on younger people. But unless they massively ramp up the supply of vaccines, then it won’t be solved this year.

When you say “return to normal” in September, are you including masks and distancing as normal?

It was a 'normal return to school' I was thinking of for September rather than an overall 'return to normal' for society.

Since last September, the message from NPHET has been that spread via schools is not significant and that children are only minimally effected.
By September, teachers will have been vaccinated as will all vulnerable family members the children could come in contact with.

So it will be much harder for NPHET to justify keeping restrictions in schools. They could do a Masks 2.0 and pivot 180 saying, "ok children can spread it and we need to stop them from getting the virus" so restrictions remain. But they will no longer have support from teachers for restrictions that reduce the amount of the teaching they can do.

Going back to the crystal ball, I can see less obtrusive measures being kept in September, eg windows remaining open, limited interactions between classes. I don't know about masks, which only affects secondary kids. Indoor mask wearing will probably be required until the end of the year. So it will be hard for them to say it's not required in schools unfortunately.

(Most of the above is probably more suited for the Relaxation of Restrictions thread)

Vaccinating 16 & 17 year olds would help senior cycle classes attain more normality. I'd hope they'd do that as soon as supplies/capacity allows.

robbiezero

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah but some people will break the rules and let everyone down. How someone behaves in an emergency says a lot about them. Some people can be relied upon to behave mostly well, most of the time.

A few months ago we had lots of posts given gout about travellers or young people not adhering to the rules. Now we have people virtue signalling about how they will stop following the rules because they're such big rebels. The travellers and young people were ridiculous for flouting the rules but the people saying they'll break the rules are looking for reassurance that they're doing it for great reasons.

Whatever way those people justify it to themselves and each other, doesn't really matter. They're the ones who are helping to drag the whole thing out for longer than it needs to.

No they aren't. The length of lockdown and extent of it last summer was ridiculous and in spite of people breaking them left, right and center, we had very low case numbers and a handful in hospital.
I think it will be the same this year.

El_Duderino 09

robbiezero wrote: »

No they aren't. The length of lockdown and extent of it last summer was ridiculous and in spite of people breaking them left, right and center, we had very low case numbers and a handful in hospital.
I think it will be the same this year.

Not sure if your response is referencing the part you highlighted or not.

Yeah in hindsight the restrictions were a bit too much last summer. Now we know that the virus doesn't spread as well in the summer, which is great news. I expect they will loosen restrictions for this summer and tighten them up again when the weather cools again.

SnuggyBear

Quazzie wrote: »

Do you consider people invading your personal space, and coughing and snotting all over you to be normal?

In what reality was this ever normal?

Drifter50

dublin_paul wrote: »

I'm afraid that it'll take a huge amount of effort by the public/electorate to have restrictions dropped, an election and new government maybe? I feel so imprisoned, and the future looks bleak. The government really want to hold us in the restrictions, ass covering and PR reasons... who wants to be the government who drops restrictions again and see cases go wildly out of control? Not this one, not other potential governments either. Are we just going to keep restrictions going and bail out retail/airlines/everyone else? Or just let them die? At what point will the government change their strategy with regard to virus management? I don't know, sorry.. bit of a negative comment. I'm doing quite well mentally, especially compared to many people I know and read about. But jeez, grim grim times.

Yep,I have to agree with you. These are utterly, utterly depressing times. There is no hope for any semblance of normality anyway soon the way that the deaths and numbers are going, when weighed against the dreadful news about vaccines. On the current numbers 200000 in 6 weeks, its going to be 5 years before we are all vaccinated. I would not be in favour of taking a vaccine at all but I would happily take a hundred of them of it was any help to get out of this mess. Surely our leaders have to take responsibility for the destruction of the mental health of the nation, it is absolutely soul destroying and there seems to be no plan to extricate ourselves from this except relying on continuing lockdowns. I feel like we are all sliding backwards into an abyss of no hope, we have been battered by these daily figures of doom and gloom. Very sad times

Hmob

Drifter50 wrote: »

Yep,I have to agree with you. These are utterly, utterly depressing times. There is no hope for any semblance of normality anyway soon the way that the deaths and numbers are going, when weighed against the dreadful news about vaccines. On the current numbers 200000 in 6 weeks, its going to be 5 years before we are all vaccinated. I would not be in favour of taking a vaccine at all but I would happily take a hundred of them of it was any help to get out of this mess. Surely our leaders have to take responsibility for the destruction of the mental health of the nation, it is absolutely soul destroying and there seems to be no plan to extricate ourselves from this except relying on continuing lockdowns. I feel like we are all sliding backwards into an abyss of no hope, we have been battered by these daily figures of doom and gloom. Very sad times

It's sad and it seems the goalposts are moving further away

I'm holding out for the europeans on the mainland

They're not sheep like the Irish and will fight and protest if this continues after vaccination, it will have an effect on our governments actions.

PTH2009

Numbers going down but still a long long way to go

There will be faracial decisions regarding opening up with us once again paddy last, Hospitality will be a target once again, NPHET and Dr Tony are going nowhere

Christ this needs to end soon, constant changing of the goalposts (the vaccine was once the end goal but thats been brushed under the carpet). Heard the upcoming imaginative Timbuktu variant will be worse

Van.Bosch

Drifter50 wrote: »

Yep,I have to agree with you. These are utterly, utterly depressing times. There is no hope for any semblance of normality anyway soon the way that the deaths and numbers are going, when weighed against the dreadful news about vaccines. On the current numbers 200000 in 6 weeks, its going to be 5 years before we are all vaccinated. I would not be in favour of taking a vaccine at all but I would happily take a hundred of them of it was any help to get out of this mess. Surely our leaders have to take responsibility for the destruction of the mental health of the nation, it is absolutely soul destroying and there seems to be no plan to extricate ourselves from this except relying on continuing lockdowns. I feel like we are all sliding backwards into an abyss of no hope, we have been battered by these daily figures of doom and gloom. Very sad times

Vaccine supply isn’t linear so the 5 year comment is rubbish.

El_Duderino 09

PTH2009 wrote: »

Numbers going down but still a long long way to go

There will be faracial decisions regarding opening up with us once again paddy last, Hospitality will be a target once again, NPHET and Dr Tony are going nowhere

Christ this needs to end soon, constant changing of the goalposts (the vaccine was once the end goal but thats been brushed under the carpet). Heard the upcoming imaginative Timbuktu variant will be worse

Who told you the vaccine was the goal? What does that mean? And what did they tell you would happen when they discovered the vaccine?

PTH2009

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Who told you the vaccine was the goal? What does that mean? And what did they tell you would happen when they discovered the vaccine?

MM in one of his many nation addressees said 'until the vaccine arrives'

SnuggyBear

robbiezero wrote: »

Hospitality rightly or wrongly is blamed for the Christmas surge, no doubt it contributed, but I certainly think if it had not been open, we would have had the huge surge anyway

Yep, we would be in the exact position we are in now if hospitality didn't open.

Antics21

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Who told you the vaccine was the goal? What does that mean? And what did they tell you would happen when they discovered the vaccine?

Not my comment but may I suggest that the vaccine was presented as an ability to meet the goal of protecting the health services and reducing deaths and hospitalizations. Now we are told that that isn't good enough due to variants that may emerge if the virus is allowed to circulate even among the vaccinated.
The lack of realism has shifted I feel from those who were anti-lockdown - which is the only effective way to deal with this nightmare unfortunately - to the those who believe a total eradication is possible. It isn't. Globally this virus will circulate forever. It seems vaccination is now no longer an answer for some in the scientific community, so it is reasonable for people to ask what exactly is the end goal here.

El_Duderino 09

PTH2009 wrote: »

MM in one of his many nation addressees said 'until the vaccine arrives'

And what exactly did he say?

Did he say things would go back to normal the day after the vaccine was discovered or when they begin the rollout? Where exactly were the goalposts?

I think I always assumed the vaccine would be the first step to dealing with the pandemic and the associated disruption. I’m pretty sure I always assumed they would have to administer the vaccine before things would change. And I don’t think I ever assumed the vaccine would definitely be 100% effective.

I think we both thought the goalposts were in different places to begin with. I think my goalposts are a bit more realistically placed than some others.

hynesie08

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

And what exactly did he say?

Did he say things would gonna into normal the day after the vaccine was discovered or when they begin the rollout? Where exactly were the goalposts?

Apparently the announcement of the vaccine would scare the virus away......

El_Duderino 09

Antics21 wrote: »

Not my comment but may I suggest that the vaccine was presented as an ability to meet the goal of protecting the health services and reducing deaths and hospitalizations. Now we are told that that isn't good enough due to variants that may emerge if the virus is allowed to circulate even among the vaccinated.
The lack of realism has shifted I feel from those who were anti-lockdown - which is the only effective way to deal with this nightmare unfortunately - to the those who believe a total eradication is possible. It isn't. Globally this virus will circulate forever. It seems vaccination is now no longer an answer for some in the scientific community, so it is reasonable for people to ask what exactly is the end goal here.

Ok. So they didn’t know about the South African or Kent variants when those goalposts were set back last March. So how should the goalposts react when new information comes to light?

Im not sure goalposts are capable of reacting to new information so I’m not sure goalposts are a great analogy.

Unwanted Banter

Unwanted Banter wrote: »

It won't end. There'll always be a new variant, then a new vaccine is needed and then a new lockdown is needed...

And all this is to save people aged 80+ from what is basically the flu.

It's "basically" the flu in the sense that old and vulnerable people are the most at-risk.

But it's more than "the Flu" for every other age category.

It's not the death rate that matters per se, rather it's the degree of general hospitalization - among the 60s, the 50s, the 40s, and even some of the 30s.

That's what clogs up the hospitals, not the care home deaths (those who die in the care home with the virus and who do not clog up a hospital bed).

So get things into its proper perspective. Stop the paranoia, ignorance, and idea that this is a la carte Flu. It ain't.

Get a grip.

Hmob

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's "basically" the flu in the sense that old and vulnerable people are the most at-risk.

But it's more than "the Flu" for every other age category.

It's not the death rate that matters per se, rather it's the degree of general hospitalization - among the 60s, the 50s, the 40s, and even some of the 30s.

That's what clogs up the hospitals, not the care home deaths (those who die in the care home with the virus and who do not clog up a hospital bed).

So get things into its proper perspective. Stop the paranoia, ignorance, and idea that this is a la carte Flu. It ain't.

Get a grip.

Get a gripe

Antics21

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. So they didn’t know about the South African or Kent variants when those goalposts were set back last March. So how should the goalposts react when new information comes to light?

Im not sure goalposts are capable of reacting to new information so I’m not sure goalposts are a great analogy.

I didn't mention goal posts.
It is of course reasonable to react to new information. Just as it is reasonable to question the logic behind it, which you didn't address in the post above.

Thomas Henderson

Thomas Henderson wrote: »

Get a grippe you mean.

It's such a mild disease that many people barely have symptoms. And yet we have completely wrecked the economy and damaged the lives of young people.

Why don't we do this every flu season?

Why didn't we do this for Swine Flu?

How about we grow up and accept this is not the Black Death? Let's have freedom and our jobs back.

Did it not rip through Italy, killing loads of people, because they weren't prepared?

People who are currently moaning about govt restrictions would be the first giving out if there were none.