When will it all end?

ThunbergsAreGo

Deleted User wrote: »

McDonkey is a spoofer. Wouldnt be listening to him. He said at the start of the pandemic that we will see thousands of deaths and a couple of hundred thousand cases in this country. Dont know why the media give him any air time

The covid misery types are as dangerous as the far let/right in this company with regards to the nations health.

ThunbergsAreGo

daheff wrote: »

Well....we've had 200k cases and over a 1k deaths...and we're still not done with Covid. Seems he's right on that score

His median scenario was 20k deaths

https://www.irishpost.com/news/top-doctor-warns-coronavirus-claim-lives-120000-across-ireland-181227

Happydays2020

daheff wrote: »

Well....we've had 200k cases and over a 1k deaths...and we're still not done with Covid. Seems he's right on that score

He was not talking about single number 1000’s. More high doubles. Plus we have probably had 300k cases at least (first wave lack of testing).

Happydays2020

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

His median scenario was 20k deaths

https://www.irishpost.com/news/top-doctor-warns-coronavirus-claim-lives-120000-across-ireland-181227

Interesting. That would have led to a a very high excess deaths rate in 2020 and 2021. We will probably see relatively small excess deaths in the end.

GazzaL

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

His median scenario was 20k deaths

https://www.irishpost.com/news/top-doctor-warns-coronavirus-claim-lives-120000-across-ireland-181227

An extremist. Jaw-droppingly incorrect numbers.

I'm looking forward to Matt Cooper bringing on a neo-nazi as his next interviewee and defending broadcasting their views because as he said in this case "you can ignore it of course if you so choose but it would be negligent of media to not report it because some people are upset by it."

El_Duderino 09

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Just a few weeks ago they were already talking about cancelling Christmas 2021. So they have form. We can't emerge from a lockdown without talking about another one.

And people on here why I and some others say that Leo and Co. do not want this to end. They give us plenty of ammo. Though I can't imagine too many lockdowns in 2022. Leo will be back in charge by Dec 2022 so he'll want normality back by then so he can play the big Hero.

So, instead of being honest about what will likely happen this year and next year, what should he do?

Should he just tell you what you want to hear? What do you want to hear?

Should he lie and say we’ll have a full capacity Croke Park for the all Ireland final and normal Christmas, and then inevitably cancel it when necessary? I’d prefer to know the truth.

So, what do you want to hear?

ypres5

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

They have created a situation where a covid death is somehow worse than a non covid death.

It's ridiculous

like the memorial on the late late show. all sympathies to the families but the carry on out of tubridy would make you think the irish equivalent of 9/11 was after happening

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Nobody is objecting to that. What people are objecting to is this new sh!te about remaining in some kind of life-lite even after mass vaccinations by September.

Varadkar has said that September is still the target. He's also basically said that Winter 2021 is off the table for reopening of mass socialising. So when you combine the two, he's saying that mass vaccination is no longer the criteria to re-open the social economy, and people are now scratching their heads and wondering what the f*ck is the criteria.

They haven’t officially revised the September target because hey don’t have good numbers to revise it with. They don’t have a steady stream of vaccines where they can extrapolate into the future and that’s what they need to revise the figure reliably. But you can rest assured that September figure will be pushed well back. So he has to use the September date because it’s still government policy, but it’s not realistic.

People have to apply some critical thinking to these things. You can’t just cherry pick facts, you need to look at what’s actually happening. Leo can’t just announce that the September target is not policy anymore, because it is still policy. But unless something changes drastically, it won’t be achieved.

stephenjmcd

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

So, instead of being honest about what will likely happen this year and next year, what should he do?

Should he just tell you what you want to hear? What do you want to hear?

Should he lie and say we’ll have a full capacity Croke Park for the all Ireland final and normal Christmas, and then inevitably cancel it when necessary? I’d prefer to know the truth.

So, what do you want to hear?

The truth ? The truth is nobody has a clue what's going to happen in 2 months time never mind 5 or 6 months time. Hence he shouldn't be trying to present opinion as fact when he hasn't a notion what the future will bring.

Sure only back in October it was oh we won't have a vaccine for the majority of 2021, here we are a few months later.

Truck load of salt with anything they say.

ThunbergsAreGo

ypres5 wrote: »

like the memorial on the late late show. all sympathies to the families but the carry on out of tubridy would make you think the irish equivalent of 9/11 was after happening

This has annoyed me a number of times this year

"Lets light a candle for those who died from Covid"

"Eh what about those that die from cancer etc?"

NIMAN

Dying from Covid now is a heroes death.
At this minute, the cancer sufferers are not as important.

Example, In NI up to 4000 'red flag' cancer procedures i.e. potentially live-saving, have been cancelled since the start of the pandemic.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55916465
I'm sure this state could report similar cancellations.


But just you watch when Covid is under control and not headline news any more, the media will be plastering all those whose serious illnesses worsened during 2020/21 all over the screens and pages, and saying how terrible it is.

polesheep

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

Jesus I cant wait to get back to New Zealand.

This is Brexit 2.0 nothing else to fill the airwaves, Holohan, Nolan and the Crazy gang over at FF and FG just loving the limelight.

Again I ask why there is ZERO balance in the reporting.

8k mainstream, 6k mainstream,4k...still mainstream 1.5k curve begins to flatten..not so much...media realise what's coming and need more click bait so start talking about future waves that may or may not happen....500 cases today cant even find it on the front page if the Irish Times apps.

I know loads of people who have tested positive and despite a runny nose they wouldn't know they've had it...

Dreadful virus if you're over 60..get them vaccinated.

0 deaths ages 0-25... 25 deaths 25-45 ages and those had underlying illnesses.

5 years of lockdown, get the **** out of here.

Agree with everything except the over 60 bit

daheff

daheff wrote: »

Well....we've had 200k cases and over a 1k deaths...and we're still not done with Covid. Seems he's right on that score

He predicted 20,000 deaths. Yeah looks like he is on score :rolleyes:

polesheep

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

So, instead of being honest about what will likely happen this year and next year, what should he do?

Should he just tell you what you want to hear? What do you want to hear?

Should he lie and say we’ll have a full capacity Croke Park for the all Ireland final and normal Christmas, and then inevitably cancel it when necessary? I’d prefer to know the truth.

So, what do you want to hear?

As would we all, but all we're getting is guesses that vary wildly from week to week. If you've nothing to say then say nothing at all.

El_Duderino 09

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The truth ? The truth is nobody has a clue what's going to happen in 2 months time never mind 5 or 6 months time. Hence he shouldn't be trying to present opinion as fact when he hasn't a notion what the future will bring.

Sure only back in October it was oh we won't have a vaccine for the majority of 2021, here we are a few months later.

Truck load of salt with anything they say.

Ah, nobody can say what will happen with certainty. And I think he plead pretty clear that he wasn’t being certain or definitive. But some things are more likely than others. And I think it’s fair to say he laid out a fairly balanced view of what will likely happen -September target aside.

You’re essentially saying we can’t plan for anything cause we don’t have a clue what will happen with certainty. But the fact is we can use probability to figure out what will most likely happen, based on the information we have at the moment. And that’s what I think he did there.

El_Duderino 09

polesheep wrote: »

As would we all, but all we're getting is guesses that vary wildly from week to week. If you've nothing to say then say nothing at all.

I don’t think that’s the issue at all. I think people just don’t like it because it’s not as good news as we’d like.

We expect our leaders to tell us what the picture looks like, with the best info they have at the moment. And that’s what he did. Nobody here objects to the September target - because it’s good news and they want to hear it. But they object to the news today because they don’t like it. Very childish

ujjjjjjjjj

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Thanks for the link



I work that out as 82.5%

Obviously we'd like that to be 90% or higher, but it's still quite high

Although, another way to look at it, is that 1 in every 5 of those under 65 who passed away were perfectly healthy

I'm not sugarcoating or Gloom Porn-ing it either way. But it's good to see some stats on underlying conditions.

They never seem to bring it up at the briefings any more

They rarely have tbh

Not a bother, I talk to people all the time re Covid and so few are aware this level of granular detail is out there. The CSO have done a good job here.

Firmly believe we never hear about it in the MSM or from Tony etc is because it is not going to suit the lockdown and pandemic disaster narrative.

Putting my cards firmly on the table the figures clearly say to me that this is a virus which is only a significant risk to the very old and very frail. I think the entire thing has been a massive over reaction since day one.

Having said that we are where we are and the public are so terrified and manipulated (just have a peak at the Prime Time last night for example) that we can't just open up and tell everyone it was a big mistake. Politically that is suicide too so forget it.

We can however like O'Leary suggests draw a line in the sand and vaccinate all those over a certain age (and younger vulnerable) and then open up and lift all restrictions. Anything beyond that is just utter overkill in my opinion.

And remember these CSO stats just relate to Covid deaths. No one can dispute that the restrictions on life and healthcare and mental health issues cost lives and will cost lives. So minus these from the small numbers of Covid deaths and we head closer to zero sum gain and that is before I even start to look at much longer economic deprivation issues.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

So, instead of being honest about what will likely happen this year and next year, what should he do?

Should he just tell you what you want to hear? What do you want to hear?

Should he lie and say we’ll have a full capacity Croke Park for the all Ireland final and normal Christmas, and then inevitably cancel it when necessary? I’d prefer to know the truth.

So, what do you want to hear?

I'd like to hear realistic projections. It's not realistic what he is saying. If everyone is vaccinated by Christmas (a huge IF at this point due to the pathetic EU vaccine rollout so far) then there is no reason we should be all locked down and not having a normal Christmas.

Unless of course the vaccines don't work. That appears to be what he is saying indirectly. If this is the case he should just say it now and we can make alternative plans, and stop wasting money and resources on them.

If it does go on for 4 or 5 years we will have to make a call when to bankrupt the economy and with it the health service when we can't borrow another €50 billion on top of the €50 billion this has added to our already enormous national debt. We can't go on with at least 25% unemployment and the government subsidising another 20% of jobs in the private sector.

He's been consistently wrong about everything so far, why should this be any different?

polesheep

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I don’t think that’s the issue at all. I think people just don’t like it because it’s not as good news as we’d like.

We expect our leaders to tell us what the picture looks like, with the best info they have at the moment. And that’s what he did. Nobody here objects to the September target - because it’s good news and they want to hear it. But they object to the news today because they don’t like it. Very childish

It's not news. That's the point. It's at best projections but mostly just guesswork.

Sam McConkey is basically an anti vaxxer - but a very strange one. You have to take these vaccines, they don't work, but take them anyway.

If we look at this rationally, this will end when the country runs out of money, someone like Biden declares the emergency is over, or someone like Google declares they are pulling out of Ireland due to the restrictions.

We have seen with the property bubble that these things just keep going far beyond what is logical or reasonable and people and governments keep cheerleading it all like idiots when a basic look at the numbers would tell them it's crazy. This is a COVID bubble. Nothing else matters except COVID. Now the vaccines are trickling in and will soon be a flood, they are doubling down on it being with us for 3-5 years.

Sweden is the elephant in the room that shows us that all the money and interventions we have done have made very little difference - we are almost at the same level of excess deaths as they are now.

gozunda

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Not a bother, I talk to people all the time re Covid and so few are aware this level of granular detail is out there. The CSO have done a good job here.

Firmly believe we never hear about it in the MSM or from Tony etc is because it is not going to suit the lockdown and pandemic disaster narrative.

Putting my cards firmly on the table the figures clearly say to me that this is a virus which is only a significant risk to the very old and very frail. I think the entire thing has been a massive over reaction since day one.

Having said that we are where we are and the public are so terrified and manipulated (just have a peak at the Prime Time last night for example) that we can't just open up and tell everyone it was a big mistake. Politically that is suicide too so forget it.

We can however like O'Leary suggests draw a line in the sand and vaccinate all those over a certain age (and younger vulnerable) and then open up and lift all restrictions. Anything beyond that is just utter overkill in my opinion.

And remember these CSO stats just relate to Covid deaths. No one can dispute that the restrictions on life and healthcare and mental health issues cost lives and will cost lives. So minus these from the small numbers of Covid deaths and we head closer to zero sum gain and that is before I even start to look at much longer economic deprivation issues.

Of interest if the virus was only a significant risk to a different population cohort - say infants and young children - would you still "think the entire thing has been a massive over reaction"? Or can we simply write of those with underlying issues of all ages and the elderly?

It is also evident the fight against the spread of covid is not just about deaths or the "very old" or "frail". Primarily its about stopping our health resources and services being overrun and the consequences of that.

And yes there is a global pandemic. Amazing the number who seem to ignore that fact or that individuals of all ages are ending up needing hospilisation

Hopefully with vaccines - that is going to help improve the situation. Any plan has to work from that and not wishful thinking.

As for the Prime Time program- absolutely no harm for those who do not understand what the frontline is like for both those that end up in ICU and staff alike.

By O'Leary - I presume you mean Mr Ryan of bucket airline fame lol. Be weary of O'Leary- the only thing he is concerned about is his profits and bums on seats.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'd like to hear realistic projections. It's not realistic what he is saying. If everyone is vaccinated by Christmas (a huge IF at this point due to the pathetic EU vaccine rollout so far) then there is no reason we should be all locked down and not having a normal Christmas.

Unless of course the vaccines don't work. That appears to be what he is saying indirectly. If this is the case he should just say it now and we can make alternative plans, and stop wasting money and resources on them.

If it does go on for 4 or 5 years we will have to make a call when to bankrupt the economy and with it the health service when we can't borrow another €50 billion on top of the €50 billion this has added to our already enormous national debt. We can't go on with at least 25% unemployment and the government subsidising another 20% of jobs in the private sector.

He's been consistently wrong about everything so far, why should this be any different?

Ah no. Now you're misrepresenting what he said. He said the virus is seasonal - and that seems to be correct but we've only had one seasonal change. Christmas is in the season where covid rises so Christmas is very unlikely to be normal. But summer is the low season for covid so we will likely have gatherings of 15 or maybe up to 50 (presumably for weddings or similar events) in summer.

I thought what he said was very measured and considered. Now you're sloppily misremembering hat he said an that is a problem.

I don't know if everyone will be vaccinated by Christmas. It might be possible if the vaccination supply increases dramatically. But I wouldn't bet on it. He was honest about this Christmas and I think that's all we can ask of our politicians.

Remember this incident the next time you hear someone criticise a politician for NOT telling us the truth. Some on this thread would not reward politicians for telling the truth, but they would reward them for telling them what they want to hear. That's a really terrible thing to do. I'd prefer the truth.

El_Duderino 09

polesheep wrote: »

It's not news. That's the point. It's at best projections but mostly just guesswork.

I think when a politician like Leo calls the IT into his office for a sit-down interview, and tells them measured statements about the likely scenario for the rest of the year, you can take it as the best information they have right now. It might change as new information comes to light.

If we're being honest about it, you're not cross because it's not news, you're cross because it's not the news you wan to hear. Leo isn't some uninformed, semi-literate, on boards making pronouncements off the top of his head. I read that as a fairly serious, informed overview of the government's view, as it stands right now.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sam McConkey is basically an anti vaxxer - but a very strange one. You have to take these vaccines, they don't work, but take them anyway.

Who said the vaccine doesn't work? Could you post exactly what he said?

Micky 32

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think when a politician like Leo calls the IT into his office for a sit-down interview, and tells them measured statements about the likely scenario for the rest of the year, you can take it as the best information they have right now. It might change as new information comes to light.

If we're being honest about it, you're not cross because it's not news, you're cross because it's not the news you wan to hear. Leo isn't some uninformed, semi-literate, on boards making pronouncements off the top of his head. I read that as a fairly serious, informed overview of the government's view, as it stands right now.

You seem to have an unhealthy obsession about “ what people want to hear” do you feel that it’s a threat to your misery bubble or something just incase what “people want to hear” might be true hence your huge dismissal on anything that people like to hear? You seem to be trying your best to dismiss anything that’s related to what “ people want to hear”.

What “people want to hear” could very well be true yet because no one knows how the vaccines will roll out yet. Things could work out better than some think or want to think.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Who said the vaccine doesn't work? Could you post exactly what he said?

He said we will be fighting COVID for 3-5 years with restrictions. Ergo the vaccines are at best very ineffective.

Meanwhile Professor Sam McConkey, Infectious Disease Specialist at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences, told The Last Word that the pandemic could go on for "three to five years", and that vaccines alone won't stop the problem.

Pretty direct statement.

https://www.todayfm.com/podcasts/the-last-word-with-matt-cooper/covid-19-pandemic-could-go-on-for-3-to-5-years

Tazz T

Deleted User wrote: »

He said we will be fighting COVID for 3-5 years with restrictions. Ergo the vaccines are at best very ineffective.



Pretty direct statement.

https://www.todayfm.com/podcasts/the-last-word-with-matt-cooper/covid-19-pandemic-could-go-on-for-3-to-5-years

Ergo??? That's quite a stretch from 'fighting Covid for 3-5 years' to 'vaccine at best very ineffective'.

More likely he's saying we have to get boosters for the next three to five years to get the disease at bay during the winter months, like we do with the flu.

El_Duderino 09

Micky 32 wrote: »

You seem to have an unhealthy obsession about “ what people want to hear” do you feel that it’s a threat to your misery bubble or something just incase what “people want to hear” might be true hence your huge dismissal on anything that people like to hear? You seem to be trying your best to dismiss anything that’s related to what “ people want to hear”.

What “people want to hear” could very well be true yet because no one knows how the vaccines will roll out yet. Things could work out better than some think or want to think.

I honestly don't know what you're asking me.

People are dismissing what Leo said because it's not what they want to hear. Picking which facts to believe because we like or dislike them, is a silly way to carry on. What he said is realistic and that's important to know. It could change, obviously. but it's important to know the state of play, as it stands, right now. You're free to take that information on board, or not. But if you choose to dismiss it, what information would you take on board?

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He said we will be fighting COVID for 3-5 years with restrictions. Ergo the vaccines are at best very ineffective.



Pretty direct statement.

https://www.todayfm.com/podcasts/the-last-word-with-matt-cooper/covid-19-pandemic-could-go-on-for-3-to-5-years

Vaccines alone won't solve the problem, duh. It will take things like masks and social distancing at the very least to solve the problems along wiht vaccines.

So did didn't say vaccines are ineffective. That was your sloppy misrepresentation.