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When will it all end?
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El_Duderino 09 wrote: »I don't know if everyone will be vaccinated by Christmas. It might be possible if the vaccination supply increases dramatically. But I wouldn't bet on it.
I would bet on it - unless the EU Commission obstruct it in some way. We are dealing with private sector companies who are very efficient at mass production and stand to make huge profits. [/QUOTE]El_Duderino 09 wrote: »Remember this incident the next time you hear someone criticise a politician for NOT telling us the truth. Some on this thread would not reward politicians for telling the truth, but they would reward them for telling them what they want to hear. That's a really terrible thing to do. I'd prefer the truth.
Sam McConkey is not a politician, but he acts like one, deliberately exaggerating everything he says, as he has consistently done since the swine flu debacle.
Even a stopped clock is wrong twice a day.
In fact several of the NPHET talking heads are political animals - Luke O'Neill, Tomas Ryan and the great Tony Holohan too. Wouldn't be surprised if he runs for president after this.
So many falsehoods have been presented as fact by all of the above throughout this.0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »Who said the vaccine doesn't work? Could you post exactly what he said?
Cooper was incredulous that this would go for 3-5 years when we have vaccines. McConkey replied that it was a false hope that the vaccines would solve the problem and that we could return to 2019. I think he said at the start that the vaccines were not a panacea as believed by many in November.
I'm not a fan of Cooper as I feel he generally fails to ask the questions that could contradict his own viewpoints but he was fine in this interview.
McConkey is being honest and I believe the government and NPHET share this view point. Why else would they be introducing new restrictions, fines, checkpoints at the airports etc if we were coming to the end of the pandemic.
I felt that the government looked spooked at the start of the month and this was because of vaccine shortages but now it seems to me that the mutations are happening faster than they can adapt the vaccines never mind roll them out.
Personally I think only economics will end this, but not Irish economics.0 -
I felt that the government looked spooked at the start of the month and this was because of vaccine shortages but now it seems to me that the mutations are happening faster than they can adapt the vaccines never mind roll them out.
Personally I think only economics will end this, but not Irish economics.
Incidentally, there were several news stories yesterday saying the same thing to varying degrees.
Look for the quotes from the Northern Irish CMO, any of the reports on the Bristol mutation and Leo of course. And best of all, 10 year jail sentences in the UK.
None of it sounds like we're coming to the end of this.0 -
I felt that the government looked spooked at the start of the month and this was because of vaccine shortages but now it seems to me that the mutations are happening faster than they can adapt the vaccines never mind roll them out.
Viruses constantly mutate. The "worst" mutation for vaccines so far is the SA one with Astra Zeneca, and that still prevents serious disease and hospitalisation.
I don't know what's going on with all the authoritarian restrictions to be honest, as the cure is far worse than the disease at this point. Instead of our health service being overwhelmed, we are overwhelming our whole country.0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »I think when a politician like Leo calls the IT into his office for a sit-down interview, and tells them measured statements about the likely scenario for the rest of the year, you can take it as the best information they have right now. It might change as new information comes to light.
If we're being honest about it, you're not cross because it's not news, you're cross because it's not the news you wan to hear. Leo isn't some uninformed, semi-literate, on boards making pronouncements off the top of his head. I read that as a fairly serious, informed overview of the government's view, as it stands right now.
Are you my mother? First up, I'm not 'cross'. I'm angry. Angry at the negative guesswork being spouted by politicians and the media. 'Measured statement'. Are you serious? In the summer you may have 15 or 50 at a wedding - after the vulnerable have been vaccinated! 15 or 50, he might as well have added or 500. It's a guess. It's not news.0 -
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thats the thingDeleted User wrote: »Viruses constantly mutate. The "worst" mutation for vaccines so far is the SA one with Astra Zeneca, and that still prevents serious disease and hospitalisation.
I don't know what's going on with all the authoritarian restrictions to be honest, as the cure is far worse than the disease at this point. Instead of our health service being overwhelmed, we are overwhelming our whole country.
the problem with the corona virus (any variant) is that theres a significant chance old people will die and a reaonable chance that anyone over 40 will get seriously sick and maybe even die.
The astra zenica vaccine still stops that, its just that it mightnt stop sniffles with the south african variant as well as with others, but it still offers massive protection against dieing.... and given the choice between dieing or taking the vaccine and maybe getting a runny nose if you catch covid, I'd take the vaccine.0 -
Look I hate the lockdown and more so than most I suspect as we've three children and live in Dublin 8, not a beautiful country idyll, instead we're in an area where drug dealing and needles are a concern. So lockdown is not good.
In saying that I have family working in hospital medicine. They have huge waiting lists and want to see those patients but can't because of covid19. Covid19 patients in ICU require a lot more time than normal. They've been really busy in this wave, thank goodness it finally seems to be slowing down.
Every life is important to them, cancer, diabetes, etc all important but those regular patients are not getting care not because they don't want to give it to them but because of Covid19.
By and large even the consultant doctors have no control over national policy. They're exhausted and the system is a mess.
There seems to be a few options.
1. Assuming a suitable multi disciplinary team can be found, set up four covid19 hospitals for each of the four provinces. This prevents the spread of Covid19 in regular hospitals. Admittedly not all could be moved but even 25% would make a big difference as would reduce spread in hospitals.
2. Accept mass deaths from covid19, cancer, diabetes, etc and let all vulnerable young and old die.
3. Continue as is.
4. Zero covid19.
I've no Idea why they're not even trying the first option. Government staff is probably the reason as it seems the most sensible option to me.0 -
Of interest if the virus was only a significant risk to a different population cohort - say infants and young children - would you still "think the entire thing has been a massive over reaction"? Or can we simply write of those with underlying issues of all ages and the elderly?
It is also evident the fight against the spread of covid is not just about deaths or the "very old" or "frail". Primarily its about stopping our health resources and services being overrun and the consequences of that.
And yes there is a global pandemic. Amazing the number who seem to ignore that fact or that individuals of all ages are ending up needing hospilisation
Hopefully with vaccines - that is going to help improve the situation. Any plan has to work from that and not wishful thinking.
As for the Prime Time program- absolutely no harm for those who do not understand what the frontline is like for both those that end up in ICU and staff alike.
By O'Leary - I presume you mean Mr Ryan of bucket airline fame lol. Be weary of O'Leary- the only thing he is concerned about is his profits and bums on seats.
I am not sure I understand your question - we are talking about a virus here that clearly is only of significant danger to the very elderly etc. We have piles of data to be clear about this now. If another virus was a substantial risk to kids and children of course it would be of a concern and we would need to take relevant action.
No one is writing off the elderly or frail but we have to accept that if the average age of death is 83 this is a disease that impacts the very elderly and old people die. It is a fact of life. I by the way have elderly parents as does my wife one of whom has a serious lung condition. Obviously don't want them catching Covid or any disease but they are happy to isolate and keep their heads down and I respect that and fully support their decisions. They in reverse don't expect me or my children to isolate based this on this tiny risk and see the damage that is being done. They all believe by the way that once they have had a vaccine they are getting on with life in full power mode as they know they haven't gone long left one way or the other and are happy to live with the virus and know it ain't going anywhere.
As I said I recognise we are where we are now so really there is little point talking about what could have happened but we can think about where we go from here.
Yes I know O'Leary wants his business to survive but I genuinely think he has the nail on the head here - vaccinate the over 50's and then we move on. There will still be some hospital admissions and deaths from Covid but this is an endemic virus now, it ain't going anywhere and with low hospital admissions and deaths I just don't see an issue. If it is still an issue why haven't we been in lockdown every winter for eternity due to flu which by the way is a significant risk for the very elderly and frail too.....but no one ever seemed to mind before, sure it was just old people dieing and they had a good innings.....sound familiar......
If the elderly want to continue to isolate after vaccination well I think as a society we can support this and respect this.
Re Primetime yes of course the healthcare staff are having a tough time but this has been coming for years - they have been running so close to the wire with the health service for years now this virus easily tips it over the edge. The real culprit here is years and years of mismanagement.0 -
Cooper was incredulous that this would go for 3-5 years when we have vaccines. McConkey replied that it was a false hope that the vaccines would solve the problem and that we could return to 2019. I think he said at the start that the vaccines were not a panacea as believed by many in November.
I'm not a fan of Cooper as I feel he generally fails to ask the questions that could contradict his own viewpoints but he was fine in this interview.
McConkey is being honest and I believe the government and NPHET share this view point. Why else would they be introducing new restrictions, fines, checkpoints at the airports etc if we were coming to the end of the pandemic.
I felt that the government looked spooked at the start of the month and this was because of vaccine shortages but now it seems to me that the mutations are happening faster than they can adapt the vaccines never mind roll them out.
Personally I think only economics will end this, but not Irish economics.
And in the UK they are talking about ten-year prison terms. I agree with you that they are spooked by mutations.0 -
munchkin_utd wrote: »thats the thing
the problem with the corona virus (any variant) is that theres a significant chance old people will die and a reaonable chance that anyone over 40 will get seriously sick and maybe even die.
The astra zenica vaccine still stops that, its just that it mightnt stop sniffles with the south african variant as well as with others, but it still offers massive protection against dieing.... and given the choice between dieing or taking the vaccine and maybe getting a runny nose if you catch covid, I'd take the vaccine.
Do you have figures to show this?0 -
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mcsean2163 wrote: »Look I hate the lockdown and more so than most I suspect as we've three children and live in Dublin 8, not a beautiful country idyll, instead we're in an area where drug dealing and needles are a concern. So lockdown is not good.
In saying that I have family working in hospital medicine. They have huge waiting lists and want to see those patients but can't because of covid19. Covid19 patients in ICU require a lot more time than normal. They've been really busy in this wave, thank goodness it finally seems to be slowing down.
Every life is important to them, cancer, diabetes, etc all important but those regular patients are not getting care not because they don't want to give it to them but because of Covid19.
By and large even the consultant doctors have no control over national policy. They're exhausted and the system is a mess.
There seems to be a few options.
1. Assuming a suitable multi disciplinary team can be found, set up four covid19 hospitals for each of the four provinces. This prevents the spread of Covid19 in regular hospitals. Admittedly not all could be moved but even 25% would make a big difference as would reduce spread in hospitals.
2. Accept mass deaths from covid19, cancer, diabetes, etc and let all vulnerable young and old die.
3. Continue as is.
4. Zero covid19.
I've no Idea why they're not even trying the first option. Government staff is probably the reason as it seems the most sensible option to me.
The first can't work because the majority of Covid patients have other illness/complications that require different treatments that would only be available in general hospitals. Not enough healthy people with no underlying illnesses are being hospitalised with Covid to justify a separate hospital.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Viruses constantly mutate. The "worst" mutation for vaccines so far is the SA one with Astra Zeneca, and that still prevents serious disease and hospitalisation.
Yes, apparently that is the case. However, my reading is that the 'spike' is the target of the vaccine and that has mutated meaning the vaccine will be less effective. They seem to be particularly concerned with the "Bristol" mutation now.
As I said above, we can't even rollout a vaccine to match the original virus so how can we keep up with mutations.I don't know what's going on with all the authoritarian restrictions to be honest, as the cure is far worse than the disease at this point. Instead of our health service being overwhelmed, we are overwhelming our whole country.
Indeed there's a completely different vibe from the guards now. They have patrols on Portmarnock beach and have been hassling people who swim there. They even arrested one swimmer. I'm sure he was probably belligerent or something but strikes me as way over the top.0 -
Yes, apparently that is the case. However, my reading is that the 'spike' is the target of the vaccine and that has mutated meaning the vaccine will be less effective. They seem to be particularly concerned with the "Bristol" mutation now.
As I said above, we can't even rollout a vaccine to match the original virus so how can we keep up with mutations.
We do this with the flu vaccine every year, and flu mutates much more than coronaviruses do. Astra Zeneca already have a modified vaccine in trials - which are much shorter than for the original approval.
Realistically we need more capacity for this in the HSE, and along with vaccines can manage it like we do flu every year. That's the only practical solution. Yet no one seems to be talking about this.Indeed there's a completely different vibe from the guards now. They have patrols on Portmarnock beach and have been hassling people who swim there. They even arrested one swimmer. I'm sure he was probably belligerent or something but strikes me as way over the top.
This is over the top.0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »So, instead of being honest about what will likely happen this year and next year, what should he do?
Should he just tell you what you want to hear? What do you want to hear?
Should he lie and say we’ll have a full capacity Croke Park for the all Ireland final and normal Christmas, and then inevitably cancel it when necessary? I’d prefer to know the truth.
So, what do you want to hear?
He and all the career politicians and the clowns in NPHET wouldn't know the truth if it bit them on their asses.
Don't kid yourself. They are not continuing with these lockdowns because they care about you. They are continuing it for the power and control they gained from them.
If they're paychecks and pensions were at stake they would have gotten over their love affair for lockdowns last year. They have destroyed this Country for God knows how long and they'll never suffer the consequences for them.0 -
Mr. Karate wrote: »He and all the career politicians and the clowns in NPHET wouldn't know the truth if it bit them on their asses.
Don't kid yourself. They are not continuing with these lockdowns because they care about you. They are continuing it for the power and control they gained from them.
If they're paychecks and pensions were at stake they would have gotten over their love affair for lockdowns last year. They have destroyed this Country for God knows how long and they'll never suffer the consequences for them.
The obvious solution here once all over 50s are vaccinated is to add ICU capacity so we can handle the excess patients that will need care going forward together with vaccines and new treatments. This is something we need in future years, not just now. Even before COVID we didn't have enough ICU beds. Yet it's somehow easier and cheaper to lock down the whole country indefinitely than to do this.
We never added any ICU capacity since March, when a surge was entirely predictable, and in fact a much larger surge was predicted by McConkey and friends. Yet they didn't add a single ICU bed - actually they might have added 9 beds I read somewhere? This despite an "Irelands call" where medical professionals abroad gave up their careers to help here and were left sitting on the dole. And despite an extra €4 billion in funding this year.
What does that tell you about the competency of NPHET and the HSE?0 -
Deleted User wrote: »We do this with the flu vaccine every year, and flu mutates much more than coronaviruses do. Astra Zeneca already have a modified vaccine in trials - which are much shorter than for the original approval.
Realistically we need more capacity for this in the HSE, and along with vaccines can manage it like we do flu every year. That's the only practical solution.
But what percentage of the population currently take the flu vaccine every year and I don't think it needs to be stored at -60C?
But yes this will probably be the way it goes, an endemic disease that kills similar numbers to the flu. It needs to mutate before you can design a response?
Afaik, the flu vaccines don't always match the flu for that season (and reason).0 -
Deleted User wrote: »The obvious solution here once all over 50s are vaccinated is to add ICU capacity so we can handle the excess patients that will need care going forward together with vaccines and new treatments. This is something we need in future years, not just now. Yet it's somehow easier and cheaper to lock down the whole country indefinitely than to do this.
We never added any ICU capacity since March, when a surge was entirely predictable, and in fact a much larger surge was predicted by McConkey and friends. Yet they didn't add a single ICU bed - actually they might have added 9 beds I read somewhere? This despite an "Irelands call" where medical professionals abroad gave up their careers to help here and were left sitting on the PUP.
What does that tell you about the competency of NPHET and the HSE?
We would need to train and recruit the specialist staff needed to run these icu beds.
We would also need to pay them the adequate wages that nurses should be getting.
Can't see any of this happening.
Once we get into the summer again everything will be forgotten about again knowing that they can always fall back on lockdowns.
The way the health services in alot of countries were let deteriorate over the years has alot to do with the dangerous affect of covid.0 -
ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »That McConky interview has affected my mental health.
Flatten the curve
Wait for the Vaccine
Another 3 to 5 years
What next.
An absolute misery merchant
But it means he is guaranteed appearances on RTE TV, RTE Radio, Newstalk, TodayFM etc, maybe 3 or 4 times per week as long as it continues.
He's praying it never ends. Same as Luke O'Neill, Dr Tony, Glynn, Nolan. The lot of them are famous because of this.
As stated, as soon as all these folk are on 350 per week, you'd see some difference in their chat (minus O'Neill of course, he's worth millions).0 -
Of interest if the virus was only a significant risk to a different population cohort - say infants and young children - would you still "think the entire thing has been a massive over reaction"? Or can we simply write of those with underlying issues of all ages and the elderly?
If it was only the young at risk I would agree with everything that has been done so far and do even more to protect them.
Without the young there is no future.
No, you shouldn't restrict and harm the young long term or even medium term to protect old and vulnerable people from a disease that has little affect on the young and healthy.
If it was a disease that was affecting my age group (mid 50's) I would do everything I can to protect myself but I still wouldn't want the young restricted.
My elderly parents agree and would gladly sacrifice themselves for their grandchildren. Any other view point is selfish in my opinion.
Anybody who thinks the young are not being badly impacted by restrictions is deluding themselves.0 -
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[Deleted User] wrote: »...
Sam McConkey is not a politician, but he acts like one, deliberately exaggerating everything he says, as he has consistently done since the swine flu debacle.
Even a stopped clock is wrong twice a day.
In fact several of the NPHET talking heads are political animals - Luke O'Neill, Tomas Ryan and the great Tony Holohan too. Wouldn't be surprised if he runs for president after this.
So many falsehoods have been presented as fact by all of the above throughout this.
I was referring to Leo, who is a politician and is telling us the state of play as it stands right now. He's being dismissed for not being certain, dismissed for not having good news, dismissed for telling us anything. It's a really terrible thing to not reward a politician for levelling with us and telling us the truth, as it stands, right now.0 -
But what percentage of the population currently take the flu vaccine every year and I don't think it needs to be stored at -60C?
Only Pfizer vaccine needs this. Moderna can keep for a month in a normal fridge and Astra Zeneca and many others in the pipeline - Sputnik V (likely the next one to be approved by EU), J&J etc are like a normal flu vaccine in terms of logistics - plus AZ at least is 10 TIMES cheaper than Pfizer. That's why it's a big mistake not to approve AZ for over 70s. Very unlikely it is at least not partially effective in older people.But yes this will probably be the way it goes, an endemic disease that kills similar numbers to the flu. It needs to mutate before you can design a response?
Afaik, the flu vaccines don't always match the flu for that season (and reason).
They can do several things like target more stable regions on the virus or target multiple regions at once, so that if one mutates it will still pick out the others. There was a lot of work previous to COVID around producing a vaccine against the 4 other common coronaviruses, since ironically coronaviruses are relatively stable in terms of mutations, and are a good candidate for this, unlike influenza or something like HIV which have very high rates of mutation. It's actually fascinating stuff.
You would never think any of this to listen to the media though.0 -
I think it's about expectations management.hatrickpatrick wrote: »Nobody is objecting to that. What people are objecting to is this new sh!te about remaining in some kind of life-lite even after mass vaccinations by September.
Varadkar has said that September is still the target. He's also basically said that Winter 2021 is off the table for reopening of mass socialising. So when you combine the two, he's saying that mass vaccination is no longer the criteria to re-open the social economy, and people are now scratching their heads and wondering what the f*ck is the criteria.
There's no point in saying now that we'll have vaccinations done by September so everyone go and plan for full party mode then. Arrange dozens of concerts and festivals and gigs. A bit of caution with re-opening rather than going balls-out, doing loads of prep now when there's a possibility (albeit small) that it would all have to be called off.
Amazing they can stop **** long enough to go in front of a camera. :rolleyes:Mr. Karate wrote: »Don't kid yourself. They are not continuing with these lockdowns because they care about you. They are continuing it for the power and control they gained from them.0 -
[Deleted User] wrote: »Viruses constantly mutate. The "worst" mutation for vaccines so far is the SA one with Astra Zeneca, and that still prevents serious disease and hospitalisation.
...
Steady on there. They haven't done the research on whether it prevents serious illness yet. Accuracy is important.0 -
Are you my mother? First up, I'm not 'cross'. I'm angry. Angry at the negative guesswork being spouted by politicians and the media. 'Measured statement'. Are you serious? In the summer you may have 15 or 50 at a wedding - after the vulnerable have been vaccinated! 15 or 50, he might as well have added or 500. It's a guess. It's not news.
Well leaving aside the semantics of cross vs angry, you can add or subtract anything you want from the statements Leo made. But then they wouldn't be the statement's he made anymore.
Why not just deal with it for what it is? I see it as the government making a statement about the state of play, as they see it right now. It will change as new information comes to light, for better or worse. That's just the reality.
People are only cross/angry about this news because it's not the news they wanted to hear.0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »Well leaving aside the semantics of cross vs angry, you can add or subtract anything you want from the statements Leo made. But then they wouldn't be the statement's he made anymore.
Why not just deal with it for what it is? I see it as the government making a statement about the state of play, as they see it right now. It will change as new information comes to light, for better or worse. That's just the reality.
People are only cross/angry about this news because it's not the news they wanted to hear.
If only that was what they were saying. Talking about numbers at weddings in July or travel next year is not 'right now'.
People who are cross don't build barricades.0 -
Mr. Karate wrote: »He and all the career politicians and the clowns in NPHET wouldn't know the truth if it bit them on their asses.
....
The statement Leo made to the IT seemed like a reasonable attempt to tell us what's likely to happen over the next year. That's what I wants know - what's likely to happen.0 -
If only that was what they were saying. Talking about numbers at weddings in July or travel next year is not 'right now'.
People who are cross don't build barricades.
Hold on. Are you suggesting they shouldn't tell us what the likely outcomes are? I wold have thought the small, private gatherings would have been pretty commonly expected in the summer
What do you want to hear?0 -
El_Duderino 09 wrote: »The statement Leo made to the IT seemed like a reasonable attempt to tell us what's likely to happen over the next year. That's what I wants know - what's likely to happen.
Well I hate to break it to you but Leo Varadkar's guess is no better than your own.0 -
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El_Duderino 09 wrote: »I was referring to Leo, who is a politician and is telling us the state of play as it stands right now. He's being dismissed for not being certain, dismissed for not having good news, dismissed for telling us anything. It's a really terrible thing to not reward a politician for levelling with us and telling us the truth, as it stands, right now.
He's actually the only one who seems to understand the effects this is having on people and trying to hope/be nuanced.
Not something I'd have said of him before!0
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