When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They haven't done the research yet .... they also haven't done the research yet on if the vaccines will kill us all 10 months down the road - because they literally can't .... but it's extremely unlikely, don't you agree? Isn't it disingenuous to say "Shock new finding: No evidence new mRNA vaccines won't kill everyone in 2022"

I have no idea what you want me to say to that. You either get it or you don't.

I made my point in the previous post. It was accurate.

El_Duderino 09

polesheep wrote: »

I have literally being arguing the opposite.

Maybe i misunderstood. Lots of posters are dismissing Leo's statement because they don't like what it says. I think you even went as far as saying he's no more informed than you and I. That wasn't your finest thinking.

How was the spin on the bike?

polesheep

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Maybe i misunderstood. Lots of posters are dismissing Leo's statement because they don't like what it says. I think you even went as far as saying he's no more informed than you and I. That wasn't your finest thinking.

How was the spin on the bike?

I didn't. I said his guesses were no better than yours or mine.

No spin yet, got waylaid. Now I have to wait for the lunch to go down.

El_Duderino 09

polesheep wrote: »

I didn't. I said his guesses were no better than yours or mine.

No spin yet, got waylaid. Now I have to wait for the lunch to go down.

Yes, that's how you phrased it. That was a bit of a crazy thing to say. I think it shows how people are feeling at the moment. Thinking that a government minister is as reliable a source of government information as either of us, is not rational.

This news will take some time to sink in. But it's better to have it than not have it. Helps to inform thinking and set realistic expectations for the next while.

stephenjmcd

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Thinking that a government minister is as reliable a source of government information as either of us, is not rational.

Same government ministers proclaimed back in October we might not have a vaccine in 2021, so you'll have to forgive people for being a little skeptical of what they say.

They've no idea what happens in May never mind October

Anyway I'm not going to bother getting into a conversation on it because the same stuff has been rehashed here numerous times throughout the day.

stephenjmcd

bucketybuck wrote: »

Clear would be stating your point in one post instead of flooding every thread with dozens of them.

Thought I was the only one who was thinking that as well

polesheep

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yes, that's how you phrased it. That was a bit of a crazy thing to say. I think it shows how people are feeling at the moment. Thinking that a government minister is as reliable a source of government information as either of us, is not rational.

This news will take some time to sink in. But it's better to have it than not have it. Helps to inform thinking and set realistic expectations for the next while.

What, precisely, are you referring to there?

If Leo Varadkar is guessing at what might happen, which he does a lot of, then he is not being a reliable source. I notice that he hasn't said these things in the form of an official government announcement.

I honestly think you are engaged in an irrational defence of Leo Varadkar.

polesheep

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thought I was the only one who was thinking that as well

I'm not that long on boards and I was somewhat naive, but I'm learning fast that some people's posts are based purely on their political outlook. A shame really.

El_Duderino 09

stephenjmcd wrote: »

...

They've no idea what happens in May never mind October

...

People on boards make proclamations about what will happen all the time. They get thanks if they're optimistic and challenged or dismissed if they're not. Realism is more important to me.

This wasn't a poster on boards talking off the top of their head. It was a government minister levelling with us about what's likely to happen, and people showed they're not ready to deal with that likelihood yet. It will take time to sink in . But people will get there at their own pace.

stephenjmcd

polesheep wrote: »

I'm not that long on boards and I was somewhat naive, but I'm learning fast that some people's posts are based purely on their political outlook. A shame really.

Ah to be honest I couldn't care less if someone has a different opinion it's the whole point of a fourm but the constant rehashing of the same point flooding a thread is boring, we got the point first time it was said.

With regards to the political side of things I just take everything with a large pinch of salt, things have happened in the last 4 months that politicians told us not long ago might not be possible at all in 2021, there's legitimate reasoning there why people are allowed to question what's being said.

El_Duderino 09

polesheep wrote: »

I'm not that long on boards and I was somewhat naive, but I'm learning fast that some people's posts are based purely on their political outlook. A shame really.

More posts are based on pure wishful thinking.

As i said earlier, I'm not a Leo fan. But I am a fan of reality and this interview showed us what the government is thinking. It doesn't really matter who delivered the message. The information is worth having.

Mr. Karate

So possibly another 4 months of lockdown. When do the Covidologists on here just admit that The Govt is enjoying and are not in any hurry for this to end?

stephenjmcd

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

People on boards make proclamations about what will happen all the time. They get thanks if they're optimistic and challenged or dismissed if they're not. Realism is more important to me.

This wasn't a poster on boards talking off the top of their head. It was a government minister levelling with us about what's likely to happen, and people showed they're not ready to deal with that likelihood yet. It will take time to sink in . But people will get there at their own pace.

And people don't need you trying to be condescending by repeating the same thing over and over again and suggesting people are slow to comprehend because they disagree with you.

You have your opinion which you think is realistic others have theirs, weather you agree or disagree their entitled to it without having the same stuff pushed at them post after post.

Anyway I'm taking myself out of this conversation now as like many posts this morning will just be going around in circles for the rest of the day

El_Duderino 09

stephenjmcd wrote: »

...
With regards to the political side of things I just take everything with a large pinch of salt, things have happened in the last 4 months that politicians told us not long ago might not be possible at all in 2021, there's legitimate reasoning there why people are allowed to question what's being said.

Nobody is suggesting you can't question what's being said. Of course you're allowed to question what's being said. You're allowed to do whatever you want.

Dismissing things you don't want to hear is different from questioning what's been said. And that's an important distinction.

El_Duderino 09

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And people don't need you trying to be condescending by repeating the same thing over and over again and suggesting people are slow to comprehend.

You have your opinion which you think is realistic others have theirs, weather you agree or disagree their entitled to it without having the same stuff pushed at them post after post.

Anyway I'm taking myself out of this conversation now as like many posts this morning will just be going around in circles for the rest of the day

Whether it's condescending or not, the truth is that people take longer to accept news they don't like than news they do like. This is news nobody likes so it will take longer to sink in than if it was great news.

I don't know why you keep telling me you're leaving. You don't need my permission to leave.
Enjoy our day.

AdamD

St.Spodo wrote: »

All told, it's probably going to take until Sept/Oct to vaccinate the adult population in the country. They're then going to have to wait and see what effect the vaccines have on infection, hospitalization and death in the real world before we transition back to unrestricted social activity some time after that. It's not at all surprising to me that Varadkar would say that mass gatherings are off the table until then; concerts and football matches and the like mean contact tracing, masks, distancing etc are out the window and I don't see how anyone could think we might be there before the end of the year.

At the same time, when talking about what specific set of restrictions on social activity will be in place 6 months from now or whatever, Varadkar is making an educated guess. There'll probably be a lot more to do than there is now. Whether you'll be able to drink a pint indoors or have to drink it outdoors, whether you'll be able to go down the country with your mates, or whether you'll be able to have 15 or 25 at your wedding will depend on how low we can get the numbers, how well the vaccines work in practice, the extent to which we can prevent the importation of new cases and other things like that. Those are things that no-one can possibly speak about with confidence at this point IMO.

In order to get to the point of vaccinating all adults in the country by September/October, we will need to vaccinate significant numbers in May/June/July/August, so its not as if we'll be waiting until October and the final adult in Ireland is vaccinated to see the results of mass vaccination. We'll know long before that what kind of effect its having, we'll also have gained plenty of knowledge from the UK, US and Israel being months ahead of us.

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

We'll know long before that what kind of effect its having, we'll also have gained plenty of knowledge from the UK, US and Israel being months ahead of us.

UK being most relevant as we have a similar profile, climate etc.

Hmob

Mr. Karate wrote: »

So possibly another 4 months of lockdown. When do the Covidologists on here just admit that The Govt is enjoying and are not in any hurry for this to end?

Good point Mr Karate

What this country needs is more martial arts experts like yourself to sort things out

This covid party is gone on too long now it's a joke

gozunda

d161 wrote: »

If it was only the young at risk I would agree with everything that has been done so far and do even more to protect them. Without the young there is no future.

No, you shouldn't restrict and harm the young long term or even medium term to protect old and vulnerable people from a disease that has little affect on the young and healthy.

If it was a disease that was affecting my age group (mid 50's) I would do everything I can to protect myself but I still wouldn't want the young restricted.

My elderly parents agree and would gladly sacrifice themselves for their grandchildren. Any other view point is selfish in my opinion.

Anybody who thinks the young are not being badly impacted by restrictions is deluding themselves.

I don't believe anyone thinks the young are not being impacted. Of course they are - as are most everyone.

And again its not just about the deaths of the 'old and the vulnerable'. The current response is there to help prevent our health care systems being overwhelmed and unlike annual flu outbreaks- that is now a potential issue and threat right across the year.

It remains people of all ages including the young who have various underlying issues are ending up in hospital. And that includes the parents of young children. So yes its important that all age groups do what they can to protect each other.

And if that means that there are some restrictions on all of us - then I'm happy to observe those restrictions for the benefit of all including the young, the elderly and those of all other age groups whether they may be vulnerable as asthmatics, MS or otherwise.

Baggly

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Whether it's condescending or not, the truth is that people take longer to accept news they don't like than news they do like. This is news nobody likes so it will take longer to sink in than if it was great news.

I don't know why you keep telling me you're leaving. You don't need my permission to leave.
Enjoy our day.

Mod

Cut that last bit out of future posts please. Please also address other users actual posts and stop using 'people on boards' as the basis for an argument. Focus on actual posts being posted here and now.

El_Duderino 09

AdamD wrote: »

In order to get to the point of vaccinating all adults in the country by September/October, we will need to vaccinate significant numbers in May/June/July/August, so its not as if we'll be waiting until October and the final adult in Ireland is vaccinated to see the results of mass vaccination. We'll know long before that what kind of effect its having, we'll also have gained plenty of knowledge from the UK, US and Israel being months ahead of us.

The UK being so far in front will give good data on what to expect, so that's good news.

I really think it's important to be clear about what the target is and what they actually can do. The plan was to vaccinate 70% of the adult population, not the whole population, by the end of September. Does that mean one shot or both shots? I don't think it's clear which they meant. Governments tend to give a best case scenario estimate at first, and I'm pretty sure they're behind where they thought they would be already with all the vaccine supply disruption. It will certainly speed up as time goes on, but I'd be very doubtful of hitting the September target of 70% let alone achieving herd immunity by the time the weather turns cold and cases go up aging.

That's not the end of the world though. They will continue to vaccinate throughout the winter and we will have a clear run at next year. Once the weather warms up and everyone is vaccinated, 2022 will probably be a much better picture than the one we face right now

landofthetree

Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gyms-malls-hotels-could-be-reopened-to-the-vaccinated-on-feb-23/

Gyms, malls, hotels could be reopened to the vaccinated on February 23.

According to the draft presented to ministers by the Health Ministry, the economic restart will be split into three stages. The proposal, reported by Hebrew media, envisions reopening gyms, malls, hotels and other sites in two weeks’ time to the vaccinated and to Israelis with a negative coronavirus test — and coffee shops and restaurants to the general public by early March.

latency89

landofthetree wrote: »

Israel



Gyms, malls, hotels could be reopened to the vaccinated on February 23.

According to the draft presented to ministers by the Health Ministry, the economic restart will be split into three stages. The proposal, reported by Hebrew media, envisions reopening gyms, malls, hotels and other sites in two weeks’ time to the vaccinated and to Israelis with a negative coronavirus test — and coffee shops and restaurants to the general public by early March.

Nice

When will we have 60 percent of our population vaccinated with one shot and we can do the same?

September?

Coybig_

landofthetree wrote: »

Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gyms-malls-hotels-could-be-reopened-to-the-vaccinated-on-feb-23/

Gyms, malls, hotels could be reopened to the vaccinated on February 23.

According to the draft presented to ministers by the Health Ministry, the economic restart will be split into three stages. The proposal, reported by Hebrew media, envisions reopening gyms, malls, hotels and other sites in two weeks’ time to the vaccinated and to Israelis with a negative coronavirus test — and coffee shops and restaurants to the general public by early March.

I notice the first paragrath being the most important point, which generated the conversations

The Health Ministry on Tuesday presented ministers with a plan to gradually reopen the economy after the nationwide lockdown, as businesses threatened to revolt and open this week in defiance of the government.

d161

gozunda wrote: »

I don't believe anyone thinks the young are not being impacted. Of course they are - as are most everyone.

Not everyone is being badly impacted. Many have no loss of income. Many are not afraid that they will lose their jobs. Many, including those imposing the restrictions are going to work as normal.
Many others are in despair.

I find that people with guaranteed incomes or who consider themselves to be vulnerable are most in favour of restrictions.

And again its not just about the deaths of the 'old and the vulnerable'. The current response is there to help prevent our health care systems being overwhelmed and unlike annual flu outbreaks- that is now a potential issue and threat right across the year.

This is about the only argument that I accept in favour of temporary lock downs, that is the safety of medical staff and the consequences of hospitals being over run when numbers get high like they did after Christmas.

It remains people of all ages including the young who have various underlying issues are ending up in hospital. And that includes the parents of young children. So yes its important that all age groups do what they can to protect each other.

You asked the question because you know the answer. The data shows that the people most at risk are over 75 years of age. Most of these who died had several serious health conditions. It also shows that the vast majority of younger people who end up in hospital or die have serious under lying conditions.

There are of course, previously healthy people who get sick and end up in hospital but not just from Covid.

And if that means that there are some restrictions on all of us - then I'm happy to observe those restrictions for the benefit of all including the young, the elderly and those of all other age groups whether they may be vulnerable as asthmatics, MS or otherwise.

I have no problem with the pubs being closed or social distancing. But the rest of it is not sustainable.

As I said above, I find that people with this view point, are often not impacted by lockdown or are potentially at risk.

What I would like most of all to know is if the government has costed the social and economic costs of continuous lock downs.

hatrickpatrick

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

So, instead of being honest about what will likely happen this year and next year, what should he do?

Should he just tell you what you want to hear? What do you want to hear?

Should he lie and say we’ll have a full capacity Croke Park for the all Ireland final and normal Christmas, and then inevitably cancel it when necessary? I’d prefer to know the truth.

So, what do you want to hear?

He said they still hope to have mass vaccinations by September, he also said that Christmas 2021 wouldn't happen.

These two statements are fundamentally contradictory, unless mass vaccination being the gatekeeper to normality has been a lie all along. And if it has been, they have an obligation to provide some information on what exactly is the gatekeeper.

Permanent bubbling and social distancing is not an acceptable answer. It will kill people, simple as that. So if mass vaccination isn't the answer, what is?

ShineOn7

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Leo can’t just announce that the September target is not policy anymore, because it is still policy. But unless something changes drastically, it won’t be achieved.

Won't we be swimming in vaccines by September though?

We should be like a slapper in Coppers around GAA mickeys by then

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

He said they still hope to have mass vaccinations by September, he also said that Christmas 2021 wouldn't happen.

These two statements are fundamentally contradictory, unless mass vaccination being the gatekeeper to normality has been a lie all along. And if it has been, they have an obligation to provide some information on what exactly is the gatekeeper.

Permanent bubbling and social distancing is not an acceptable answer. It will kill people, simple as that. So if mass vaccination isn't the answer, what is?

Yeah, I really don't think the September target is likely. It was always highly aspirational. But what do you think the September target is and if tey achieve it, what do you think it means?

hatrickpatrick

ShineOn7 wrote: »

We should be like a slapper in Coppers around GAA mickeys by then

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

You literally have no idea how much I needed this today

hatrickpatrick

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah, I really don't think the September target is likely. It was always highly aspirational. But what do you think the September target is and if tey achieve it, what do you think it means?

Donnelly originally said that they would vaccinate everyone by September. Leo is now saying 80% by September.

If they achieve anywhere between 80%-100% and yet we're still supposed to endure a Winter of lockdown, then this means that the idea of mass vaccination being the key to getting our lives back has now changed - and if it has, people deserve to know what the new supposed key is going to be.