When will it all end?

Mastroianni

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

He said they still hope to have mass vaccinations by September, he also said that Christmas 2021 wouldn't happen.

These two statements are fundamentally contradictory, unless mass vaccination being the gatekeeper to normality has been a lie all along. And if it has been, they have an obligation to provide some information on what exactly is the gatekeeper.

Permanent bubbling and social distancing is not an acceptable answer. It will kill people, simple as that. So if mass vaccination isn't the answer, what is?

vaccination consists in 2 injections done in a span of time of 3 weeks, so yes is not a contraddiction say "mass vaccination by September" and "no 2021 Christmas". Let's deal with it.

Le Bruise

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah, I really don't think the September target is likely. It was always highly aspirational. But what do you think the September target is and if tey achieve it, what do you think it means?

You've just spent the afternoon telling us we should listen to Leo as he/the government is/are trying to tell us what will happen with regard to restrictions....yet you don't want to listen to him when he says they're aiming for September for a critical mass (70/80%) of the population to be vaccinated?

gozunda

d161 wrote: »

Not everyone is being badly impacted. Many have no loss of income. Many are not afraid that they will lose their jobs. Many, including those imposing the restrictions are going to work as normal.
Many others are in despair.

As detailed in my previous comment "most everyone." is impacted to some degree - not just financial but also health, family, emotional and a variety of other reasons.

I find that people with guaranteed incomes or who consider themselves to be vulnerable are most in favour of restrictions.

I've seen that said previously- However haven't seen much evidence behind it - see above

d161 wrote: »

This is about the only argument that I accept in favour of temporary lock downs, that is the safety of medical staff and the consequences of hospitals being over run when numbers get high like they did after Christmas.

Agreed.

d161 wrote: »

You asked the question because you know the answer. The data shows that the people most at risk are over 75 years of age. Most of these who died had several serious health conditions. It also shows that the vast majority of younger people who end up in hospital or die have serious under lying conditions.

Don't think I asked a question. Simply pointing out that people of all ages have ended up seriously ill in hospital. As much as the deaths make the biggest headlines- the impact on health services and their ability to cope is tantamount to helping those who do become seriously ill regardless of age. But yes in relation to the young with underlying conditions- these are also extremely vulnerable to being infected and ending up in hospital

d161 wrote: »

There are of course, previously healthy people who get sick and end up in hospital but not just from Covid. I have no problem with the pubs being closed or social distancing. But the rest of it is not sustainable.

With vaccines being now rolled out and as things move forward more business etc will be able to open. I don't think there is any doubt there.

d161 wrote: »

As I said above, I find that people with this view point, are often not impacted by lockdown or are potentially at risk.

As above

d161 wrote: »

What I would like most of all to know is if the government has costed the social and economic costs of continuous lock downs.

The final cost of both increases in healthcare and supporting those whove lost employment won't be known for some time. That said balancing health and money spent is never an easy equation even if there was no pandemic.

El_Duderino 09

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Won't we be swimming in vaccines by September though?

We should be like a slapper in Coppers around GAA mickeys by then

Maybe, maybe not. Funny Coppers imagery aside, I don't think we can be sure about vaccination numbers at the moment. About 7bn people want 2 vaccinations each and they want them yesterday. I trust the manufacturers are making them as fast as they can, but we don't have a reliable number to base future projections on, at the moment.

Maybe they will all ramp up production and we'll be like the young wan in Coppers in your image above. While we don't know yet, it doesn't seem likely at the moment. I'm sure they will ramp up production though. That's almost certain.

hatrickpatrick

Mastroianni wrote: »

vaccination consists in 2 injections done in a span of time of 3 weeks, so yes is not a contraddiction say "mass vaccination by September" and "no 2021 Christmas". Let's deal with it.

You do realise that there are eight weeks between the last day of September and the beginning of December? So if we have mass vaccinations by September, even if that only means one dose, it still means we'd have mass two-dose vaccination by the end of October.

Mastroianni

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

You do realise that there are eight weeks between the last day of September and the beginning of December? So if we have mass vaccinations by September, even if that only means one dose, it still means we'd have mass two-dose vaccination by the end of October.

but it doesn't mean that, even if everything will go smooth, Christmas 2021 will be like "let's open the gate!" style. A kind of waiting time it must be. Also, do you think that after one year of restrictions the Govt will reopen everything at the same time in December 2021? It sucks, and I wish all of this to be ended by tomorrow, but realistically this is a transiction year. We will take back our lives in Q1 of 2022.

El_Duderino 09

Le Bruise wrote: »

You've just spent the afternoon telling us we should listen to Leo as he/the government is/are trying to tell us what will happen with regard to restrictions....yet you don't want to listen to him when he says they're aiming for September for a critical mass (70/80%) of the population to be vaccinated?

That's true. Here are my reasons for that position. I read government statements, briefings, announcements and so on, as part of my job. I know that ministers have to stick to policy. The September target is currently still policy so he has no choice but to refer to it as the current policy. He can't rubbish government policy all on his own.

that target seems highly unlikely to stay in tact without being pushed back. but they will replace that policy when they have a new one to replace it with. Currently they don't have the information to make a new policy because they don't have reliable projections for things like vaccine supply. In my opinion, they will replace it with a more realistic target when they have enough information to make a good estimate.

What do you think will likely happen and why do you think it will happen?

Edit: They never said they will have 70/80% of the population vaccinated by the end of September. They said 70% of the adult population which is about 56% of the overall population. It amazes me how many times that needs to be repeated.

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Donnelly originally said that they would vaccinate everyone by September. Leo is now saying 80% by September.

If they achieve anywhere between 80%-100% and yet we're still supposed to endure a Winter of lockdown, then this means that the idea of mass vaccination being the key to getting our lives back has now changed - and if it has, people deserve to know what the new supposed key is going to be.

I doubt anyone said they will vaccinate everyone by September. But people tend to misunderstand these things in ways that sound like the things they want to hear. If Donnelly did say that, the i think he will be proven wrong (not least because some people will refuse the vaccine so they will never get 100% uptake) They were only ever referring to the adult population because the vaccines hadn't even been tested on younger people yet.

Yes, Leo confirmed that the 80% target by the end of September is still currently government policy. But I don't think they will realistically believe they can reach that target. We'll see, but it doesn't look realistic at the moment.

latency89

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I doubt anyone said they will vaccinate everyone by September. But people tend to misunderstand these things in ways that sound like the things they want to hear. If Donnelly did say that, the i think he will be proven wrong (not least because some people will refuse the vaccine so they will never get 100% uptake) They were only ever referring to the adult population because the vaccines hadn't even been tested on younger people yet.

Yes, Leo confirmed that the 80% target by the end of September is still currently government policy. But I don't think they will realistically believe they can reach that target. We'll see, but it doesn't look realistic at the moment.

How can they vaccinate 80% if nearly 20% are under 18, not to mention pregnant women, allergies, medical conditions that can't be vaccinated etc.

What's a realistic target for every human on this island?

Le Bruise

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Edit: They never said they will have 70/80% of the population vaccinated by the end of September. They said 70% of the adult population which is about 56% of the overall population. It amazes me how many times that needs to be repeated.

Leo said 70/80% of the population in that article, he also mentions critical mass by September. Nothing about adults only.

El_Duderino 09

Mastroianni wrote: »

but it doesn't mean that, even if everything will go smooth, Christmas 2021 will be like "let's open the gate!" style. A kind of waiting time it must be. Also, do you think that after one year of restrictions the Govt will reopen everything at the same time in December 2021? It sucks, and I wish all of this to be ended by tomorrow, but realistically this is a transiction year. We will take back our lives in Q1 of 2022.

That's pretty much exactly what I think will happen. The summer will probably see lots of restrictions reduced and businesses opened again. Hopefully, this is the last lockdown and whatever restrictions are needed for next Christmas and early in the new year will be minor compared to this year. They should have most people, or maybe everyone vaccinated by the time things warm up again next year and that will be a completely different story from then on.

El_Duderino 09

Le Bruise wrote: »

Leo said 70/80% of the population in that article, he also mentions critical mass by September. Nothing about adults only.

I don't know what to tell you. They are only referring to adults, at the moment. The vaccines haven't even been tested on young people. Don't take my word for it, look it up for yourself.

El_Duderino 09

latency89 wrote: »

How can they vaccinate 80% if nearly 20% are under 18, not to mention pregnant women, allergies, medical conditions that can't be vaccinated etc.

What's a realistic target for every human on this island?

They can aim to vaccinate 80% of the population they're referring to - the adult population. 80% of the adult population is about 64% of the overall population. And that's pretty good.

Edit. I looked up the article to see what exactly he said and you're right, her was referring to the whole population, but he wasn't linking that to the September target. The September target was only ever about adults.

the article was referring to returning to normal, not the September target. "I don’t see mass gatherings happening, I don’t see people filling stadiums and things like that, at least until we have 70 or 80 per cent of the population vaccinated and we know that it works in terms of reducing hospitalisations and deaths. Then we’re in a totally different space."

copeyhagen

people writing off Xmas 2021 already, haha

St.Spodo

Mastroianni wrote: »

but it doesn't mean that, even if everything will go smooth, Christmas 2021 will be like "let's open the gate!" style. A kind of waiting time it must be. Also, do you think that after one year of restrictions the Govt will reopen everything at the same time in December 2021? It sucks, and I wish all of this to be ended by tomorrow, but realistically this is a transiction year. We will take back our lives in Q1 of 2022.

I would agree with this. My hope and belief is that with several months of suppression, vaccines, international travel restrictions and people spending more time outdoors we'll be able to have a summer like last year's. Then all going well, we'll be in a position to get nearly all of the country vaccinated by the end of the year. I could see St Patrick's Day 2022 the first big mass gathering, but fingers crossed we are living with a great deal more normality than now long before then.

El_Duderino 09

copeyhagen wrote: »

people writing off Xmas 2021 already, haha

Depends on what you mean by writing it off. I certainly wouldn’t write it off but I wouldn’t expect it to be normal either.

What do you mean by writing it off?

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/10/who-backs-use-of-oxfordastrazeneca-covid-vaccine-for-adults-of-all-ages

Now can we just on with it please, Bitish decision to extend intervals to 12 weeks entirely vindicated.

EU needs to get off its real end and give 100% support to AZ instead of hissy fits that the Brits are miles ahead.

This vaccine is simple and easy to roleout.

Even if less effective v some strains it will give good protection v hospitalisation and death in many /most cases.

hatrickpatrick

Mastroianni wrote: »

but it doesn't mean that, even if everything will go smooth, Christmas 2021 will be like "let's open the gate!" style. A kind of waiting time it must be. Also, do you think that after one year of restrictions the Govt will reopen everything at the same time in December 2021? It sucks, and I wish all of this to be ended by tomorrow, but realistically this is a transiction year. We will take back our lives in Q1 of 2022.

Well, Leo was claiming just a couple of weeks ago that we'd have festivals back by the summer. That's what I mean about the rapidly moving goalposts. Once everyone is vaccinated, what justification is there not to open the flood gates?

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I doubt anyone said they will vaccinate everyone by September. But people tend to misunderstand these things in ways that sound like the things they want to hear.

He did say that.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/minister-stephen-donnelly-everyone-in-the-country-to-be-vaccinated-by-september-39994725.html

Now, he may well be proven wrong indeed, I'm assuming he will be. What's making me and many others angry is this idea that even after we do reach a critical mass of vaccination, we'll still be under social distancing restrictions for a protracted period afterwards.

Spin it however you like, but this is a massive departure from what we were being told just a couple of weeks ago and I'm sure I'm not the only one who wants to know why the f*ck they're suddenly dropping this. It's enormously damaging to peoples' morale. I ask again - if critical mass vaccination is no longer the criteria for the return of mass gatherings, what exactly is?

Mastroianni

Leo said that...and do you believe it will be pragmatically possible to have the festivals back in summer? Mega LOL!
First we face the truth and first we will be prepared mentally

hatrickpatrick

Mastroianni wrote: »

Leo said that...and do you believe it will be pragmatically possible to have the festivals back in summer? Mega LOL!
First we face the truth and first we will be prepared mentally

No, of course I don't. You're missing the point of what I'm saying - previously, mass vaccination was the end point at which we could go back to living like humans. Now, we're being told that it isn't.

All I'm asking is, firstly, why the change, and secondly, if mass vaccination is no longer the end goal, then what is? What's the new target?

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Well, Leo was claiming just a couple of weeks ago that we'd have festivals back by the summer. That's what I mean about the rapidly moving goalposts. Once everyone is vaccinated, what justification is there not to open the flood gates?



He did say that.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/minister-stephen-donnelly-everyone-in-the-country-to-be-vaccinated-by-september-39994725.html

Now, he may well be proven wrong indeed, I'm assuming he will be. What's making me and many others angry is this idea that even after we do reach a critical mass of vaccination, we'll still be under social distancing restrictions for a protracted period afterwards.

Spin it however you like, but this is a massive departure from what we were being told just a couple of weeks ago and I'm sure I'm not the only one who wants to know why the f*ck they're suddenly dropping this. It's enormously damaging to peoples' morale. I ask again - if critical mass vaccination is no longer the criteria for the return of mass gatherings, what exactly is?

Yeah fair enough you’re right, he did say everyone in the country by September. He was pretty careful to say it was a tentative timeline based on supply, including supply of vaccines which haven’t even applied for approval yet.

I think if they were to achieve that target by September, there would be very little need for restrictions next winter, beyond distancing and masks. But, as I think we agree, they’re highly unlikely to meet that target. So it’s moot.

hatrickpatrick

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah fair enough you’re right, he did say everyone in the country by September. He was pretty careful to say it was a tentative timeline based on supply, including supply of vaccines which haven’t even applied for approval yet.

I think if they were to achieve that target by September, there would be very little need for restrictions next winter, beyond distancing and masks. But, as I think we agree, they’re highly unlikely to meet that target. So it’s moot.

Then we're actually in agreement I've been getting more of a vibe in recent days of "even with mass vaccination we can't go back to mass gatherings" and that's what I'm finding both soul crushing and honestly a little rage inducing because it represents a moving of the goalposts - without any definitive idea of where they're being moved to. That's all. That's why I said in the other thread that for the sake of peoples' mental health I advise switching off the bulletins for a while, because the rate of flip flopping indicates that nobody has a clue what's going on and every statement made is revisable within days. Ergo, utterly useless if you're going to use them to pin any hopes on.

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Then we're actually in agreement I've been getting more of a vibe in recent days of "even with mass vaccination we can't go back to mass gatherings" and that's what I'm finding both soul crushing and honestly a little rage inducing because it represents a moving of the goalposts - without any definitive idea of where they're being moved to. That's all. That's why I said in the other thread that for the sake of peoples' mental health I advise switching off the bulletins for a while, because the rate of flip flopping indicates that nobody has a clue what's going on and every statement made is revisable within days. Ergo, utterly useless if you're going to use them to pin any hopes on.

Well, I don’t know if there can be mass gatherings with distancing. But I supppse they can look at how to make it work. It would probably be much easier in warm months than cold months. But that’s a discussion for later down the road when they reach a high rate of vaccination.

I think there has to be a degree of realism to expectations. Turning off the news is one thing, but cherry picking (or misrepresenting) the most preferable pieces of news and being disappointed when they don’t happen, isn’t good either.

I think some people thought then vaccination would be approved and the pubs would reopen the next day. But the reality is that it will take a year to vaccinate everyone. And then it might be time to start vaccinating everyone again. But the infrastructure will be there to do it the second time around so it will run much more smoothly. This is the low point. It will most likely only get better from here on.

Politicians want to deliver as much good news and as little bad news as possible. Look at Boris Johnson. He tells blatant lies to avoid telling people bad news. He said in December that cancelling Christmas would be inhuman, then he waited until there’s was little choice and imposed restrictions on Christmas gatherings. He said schools would go back after Christmas as planned and cancelled schools the day before they were due back.

I think we should appreciate when our politicians tell us the truth, even when they would prefer to sell us a happy lie. Leo did that yesterday so it’s worth noting down as the likely scenario at the moment.

Wow, things looking pretty bleak going forward based on Varadkar's IT piece and Sam McConkeys interview. I had mostly agreed with the restrictions to date (providing we were to be fortunate enough that some geniuses would develop vaccines, which is not something we should have just assumed would inevitably happen) but I think most people would not be able to tolerate another two years of restrictions, never mind another 5 (lol).

There are kids in their late teens looking at losing what are often considered to be the best years of their lives through no fault of their own - very sad for them.

What can we do? This sucks ass. Hopefully it wont be as bad as they are predicting.

growleaves

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What can we do?

What each person can do is tell the basic truth, which is that prolonged isolation is not an ethical tool of medicine.

That the media and government can wheel out 'experts' in white coats who will claim that it is should not stop ordinary people from speaking the truth.

The longer it goes on, the more obviously wrong it is.

Chopper Dave

Hadn’t heard the news properly in a couple of days and was really struck by the Leo and McConkey interviews last night. What changed? And when?

Also sick of the Govt approach which is we will have a plan, but in two weeks. Cue days of leaks and speculation about what will happen accompanied by outraged lobby groups, unions, NPHET etc. Then the weekend before the Sunday Independent will publish the entire plan. Depending on Liveline the next day, the Govt will amend the final plan accordingly.

Then, we will all realise that the plan hasn’t been thought through and the govt will correct those contradictions. The following week the govt commits to a reviewing the plan - but in two weeks. Repeat cycle again

snowgal

Chopper Dave wrote: »

Hadn’t heard the news properly in a couple of days and was really struck by the Leo and McConkey interviews last night. What changed? And when?

Also sick of the Govt approach which is we will have a plan, but in two weeks. Cue days of leaks and speculation about what will happen accompanied by outraged lobby groups, unions, NPHET etc. Then the weekend before the Sunday Independent will publish the entire plan. Depending on Liveline the next day, the Govt will amend the final plan accordingly.

Then, we will all realise that the plan hasn’t been thought through and the govt will correct those contradictions. The following week the govt commits to a reviewing the plan - but in two weeks. Repeat cycle again

This, x 100

franciscanpunk

Think the news from Europe seems to be expect more delays in vaccine production, may not have said it yet but dropping hints. Also, even the did manage to vaccinate everyone by the end of the year lots of noise around potential boosters. November 2020 i was considering should i book flights to Spain in July or Septemeber with all the vaccine news. Now I'm genuinely thinking is 2023 too soon to get my hopes up for travel.

I don't mean to be a doom and gloom merchant, a couple of months ago i was genuinely hopeful things would change within months but lost hope at this stage. Its clear the majority are happy to accept resrictions with no end date so can't see how things will ever get back to normal without mass ignoring of the authorities.

Multipass

Deleted User wrote: »

There are kids in their late teens looking at losing what are often considered to be the best years of their lives through no fault of their own - very sad for them.

What can we do? This sucks ass. Hopefully it wont be as bad as they are predicting.

My teen is one of them, 1st year in college inside the bedroom. I can’t emphasise enough how damaging it continues to be. Now with all the gloom from our leaders, I’m encouraging her to defer next year and get the hell out of here. Working abroad for the year is a much better prospect than more of this ****e.

Edited to add - what can I do.... one thing I’ve decided is that after the elderly are vaccinated I won’t be fuelling the numbers game here by ever getting a test unless I’m very ill. If healthy people refuse tests the daily numbers will drop amazingly.

franciscanpunk

We'll see another living with covid plan in a couple of weeks that will push restructions out to year end. These days will be pushed further out when vaccine produ tion isn't proves to have been overestimated.

What are defintely not doing is living at the moment, life is on hold, unfortunately looks like it will be hold for another few years. a lot of people may not feel the burden as much as other for some time so maybe that will speed up the end