When will it all end?

quokula

Charles Babbage wrote: »

they do reduce transmission of the virus, further research is needed to establish by exactly how much.



People getting the jab near the end may well be getting one tweaked to deal with the common variants.

Data non transmission is looking positive. In addition to this, even if you can spread it, that means you still have to social distance and isolate if you are vaccinated and others aren't, but once most people are vaccinated then the risk associated with spreading it is reduced.

The end of the pandemic is probably not when covid disappears, but when vaccines have led to a level of immune response that covid is no more dangerous on average than other common colds and flus.

It feels to me as though a corner has been turned in the last few days, but in a bad way. The government know people are verging on being unwilling to comply indefinitely and they (the government) have nothing hopeful to offer people nor any new suggestions besides tougher restrictions and scaring the crap out of people. They repeatedly assured us since last October that vaccines were our one great hope, but reading between the lines it feels as though they no longer believe that. I could be wrong? Or is it just that they don't expect to get enough vaccines for a very long time?

Tazz T

Sexual Chocolate wrote: »

I think that's what a lot of airlines are looking towards in terms of 2019 levels.

Are you serious? There won't be a single airline left. Even Ryanair cash pile will be exhausted after another year of this. Aer Lingus, Shannon, Cork and Kerry will be gone after another summer in lockdown without state intervention.

(this post was in response to an earlier poster stating 2025 as a possible return to normality for airlines)

ujjjjjjjjj

quokula wrote: »

Data non transmission is looking positive. In addition to this, even if you can spread it, that means you still have to social distance and isolate if you are vaccinated and others aren't, but once most people are vaccinated then the risk associated with spreading it is reduced.

The end of the pandemic is probably not when covid disappears, but when vaccines have led to a level of immune response that covid is no more dangerous on average than other common colds and flus.

Agreed and ultimately if hospitalisations and mortality drop to levels like a typical winter flu or lower what is the problem ? I genuinely believe this virus isn't anything remarkable and is little more or about as dangerous as the flu but because it's a new virus we have no inbuilt immunity or herd immunity to it and as such deaths are higher than typical flu years but with herd immunity and vaccines we move beyond this 'entry phase' and it becomes just another virus we live with. We are so lucky with this virus that it isn't killing kids and it's only a significant danger to very defined sections of our population. Again once we get this section of the population vaccinated - for me the cut off line is the over 65's as it's entirely consistent with the area where risk starts to lift, we move on.

This virus is endemic, it is here now, it will continue to spread and exist in humans indefinitely just like colds and influenza etc etc.

All these vaccines are showing superb protection against hospitalisations and death but nothing is perfect but combine vaccinations with natural immunity and we end up very quickly with a population showing very good levels of resistance to serious illness, yes sniffles, minor symptoms perhaps but so what.

The line needs to be drawn and if it done now people have hope and can possibly put the shoulder to wheel, put on the green jersey for another few weeks. Endless drivel about months and years of restrictions is just driving people insane.

ixoy

Deleted User wrote: »

Or is it just that they don't expect to get enough vaccines for a very long time?

I think this is a large chunk of it. Roughly, with their current supply and targets, they'll have given the double dose of vaccinations to HCWs and all those 70+ by May, which lines up with his announcement.

Hmob

Tazz T wrote: »

Are you serious? There won't be a single airline left. Even Ryanair cash pile will be exhausted after another year of this. Aer Lingus, Shannon, Cork and Kerry will be gone after another summer in lockdown without state intervention.

(this post was in response to an earlier poster stating 2025 as a possible return to normality for airlines)

Will Ryanairs cash pile be gone?

New airlines will start up if the demand is there

Planes and airports won't cease to exist

Kivaro

I really hope that they are currently looking at a Plan B if the vaccine route does not solve the continuous lockdown response to this pandemic. It's pointless waiting until September to start thinking about and discussing an alternative solution.

Hmob

Kivaro wrote: »

I really hope that they are currently looking at a Plan B if the vaccine route does not solve the continuous lockdown response to this pandemic. It's pointless waiting until September to start thinking about and discussing an alternative solution.

Don't think they even have a Plan A atm

ujjjjjjjjj

Deleted User wrote: »

It feels to me as though a corner has been turned in the last few days, but in a bad way. The government know people are verging on being unwilling to comply indefinitely and they (the government) have nothing hopeful to offer people nor any new suggestions besides tougher restrictions and scaring the crap out of people. They repeatedly assured us since last October that vaccines were our one great hope, but reading between the lines it feels as though they no longer believe that. I could be wrong? Or is it just that they don't expect to get enough vaccines for a very long time?

No idea whether it's just endless panic from them or yes perhaps they realise that the EU has made such a total and absolute horlicks out of the vaccinations that it's going to be the end of this year before adults are vaccinated. Progress is glacial and looking at the likes of Israel and the UK we look in a bad place in the EU.

At this stage with the mess in Europe the Irish government needs to grow a pair and start direct negotiations with any of the pharma companies willing to talk to them and by the way anything we pay for vaccines is going to be a fraction of the money saved by getting the country open again fully. Still think due to the CTA and Irish border we have a strong case to get assistance from the UK, they will want us vaccinated ASAP due to CTA and the Irish border - park all the pride and just get it done. EU solidarity doesn't exist, the Germans have gone outside the EU vaccines procurement. It doesn't mean we have to leave the EU or anything or p**s all over Brussels, just sort this out ourselves and grow a pair.

Tazz T

Hmob wrote: »

Will Ryanairs cash pile be gone?

New airlines will start up if the demand is there

Planes and airports won't cease to exist

How long to you think it takes to start a new airline/industry?

it's not okay that the aviation and the supporting industries (tourism/hospitality) go under meaning thousands of jobs lost. That alone would kick off the biggest recession the country has ever seen.

It's absolutely insane that we've gone from 'we'll just lock businesses down for a few weeks' to 'ah we can lose aviation industry, sure there'll always be planes '

Quazzie

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

EU needs to get off its real end and give 100% support to AZ instead of hissy fits that the Brits are miles ahead.

Aren't the latest reports that the AZ vaccine is pretty much useless against the new strains and therefore all vaccinated with it might aswell not be vaccinated at all?

Hmob

Tazz T wrote: »

How long to you think it takes to start a new airline/industry?

it's not okay that the aviation and the supporting industries (tourism/hospitality) go under meaning thousands of jobs lost. That alone would kick off the biggest recession the country has ever seen.

It's absolutely insane that we've gone from 'we'll just lock businesses down for a few weeks' to 'ah we can lose aviation industry, sure there'll always be planes '

I can't answer all your questions

1. There will always be planes

2. Are we better off without unnecessary air travel?

Probably..

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can I go and see my sick sister in the UK without paying €2000 fine. To me that is a ban. I don't have an extra €2K/

If you need to go look after her, then yes you can.

opinionated3

Hmob wrote: »

I can't answer all your questions

1. There will always be planes

2. Are we better off without unnecessary air travel?

Probably..

One thing I've noticed during this pandemic is that people's livelihoods and careers are so easily dismissed by those not working in those particular industries. It's depressing how large the. "I'm alright Jack" brigade is in this country. A real eye opener

ujjjjjjjjj

Quazzie wrote: »

Aren't the latest reports that the AZ vaccine is pretty much useless against the new strains and therefore all vaccinated with it might aswell not be vaccinated at all?

One small study (not peer reviewed yet) that the AZ strain is showing reduced levels efficacy against preventing mild and moderate Covid than against other strains but it is still working to prevent serious disease and hospitalisations.

Best way to describe is a like every we year we get flu jabs, some work really well, other years not so well but they all help hugely.

Bottom line is if it keeps people out of hospital then it's job is done. This is an endemic virus, vaccines ain't going to get rid of it entirely.

Even if it works at 30-50% efficacy at preventing serious disease it's absolutely brilliant as it massively reduces the load on healthcare and allows us to reopen.

It's approved by EMA, The WHO and the MHRA - I am not qualified to doubt these bodies so we move on and give it to people if it's there. If in time the advice changes well so be it but right now speculation about one strain maybe being able to somewhat get around the vaccine is just speculation just like a million other scare stories.

SEPT 23 1989

Kivaro wrote: »

I really hope that they are currently looking at a Plan B if the vaccine route does not solve the continuous lockdown response to this pandemic. It's pointless waiting until September to start thinking about and discussing an alternative solution.

Plan B is Donohoe & Donnelly standing on a windswept air field on the outskirts of Moscow exchanging pallets of high denomination euro notes for a plane load of the Sputnik V

Micky 32

Been having a long hard think and i think seriously we need to put the brakes on with all the hysteria on this thread. I don’t blame anyone because the media are responsible for a lot of it. I’m going to play the devil’s advocate here.

We get headlines like “ prolonged virus suppression “ “ lockdown indefinately “. But when you look past the headlines the plan is to extent the lockdown for a couple of months not forever. Yes i know a couple more months is a pain in the bollix but in the grand scheme of things is it really that long? Certainly not forever.

The plan is to keep the numbers as low as possible while we get on with the vaccine program. If the vaccine works ( i’m confident it will) by late summer/ autumn things will be so much different. To me all that’s really changed is they are getting a bit stricter just untill we all get jabbed. One of the reasons is to stop people who have been vaccinated getting complacent until we all get it. Especially when the new variant is a little more transmissable.

As for travel. Baby steps. I can see that later on in the year when the UK and ourselves are vaccinated we might have a bubble with the UK where we could travel back and forth unhindered which would be great because i could get back to my Sunday drive in the Snowdonia mountains again!

ujjjjjjjjj

Micky 32 wrote: »

Been having a long hard think and i think seriously we need to put the brakes on with all the hysteria on this thread. I don’t blame anyone because the media are responsible for a lot of it. I’m going to play the devil’s advocate here.

We get headlines like “ prolonged virus suppression “ “ lockdown indefinately “. But when you look past the headlines the plan is to extent the lockdown for a couple of months not forever. Yes i know a couple more months is a pain in the bollix but in the grand scheme of things is it really that long? Certainly not forever.

The plan is to keep the numbers as low as possible while we get on with the vaccine program. If the vaccine works ( i’m confident it will) by late summer/ autumn things will be so much different. To me all that’s really changed is they are getting a bit stricter just untill we all get jabbed. One of the reasons is to stop people who have been vaccinated getting complacent until we all get it. Especially when the new variant is a little more transmissable.

As for travel. Baby steps. I can see that later on in the year when the UK and ourselves are vaccinated we might have a bubble with the UK where we could travel back and forth unhindered which would be great because i could get back to my Sunday drive in the Snowdonia mountains again!

Agree - it's good to have a devil's advocate approach.

If you are correct and jeepers I hope you are (UK travel bubble for example could be in place quite soon with some willingness and it makes absolute sense as we can get our travel industry going and we can at least can pop up to the Scottish highlands this summer !!)

What is not helpful though is the general messaging coming out ATM.......yes mainly the media but government ain't helping.......people need a clear exit strategy now not more vagueness and scare mongering.

Kivaro

Micky 32 wrote: »

......
As for travel. Baby steps. I can see that later on in the year when the UK and ourselves are vaccinated we might have a bubble with the UK where we could travel back and forth unhindered which would be great because i could get back to my Sunday drive in the Snowdonia mountains again!

Wrapped in this is a possible Plan B solution: An Ireland/UK bubble.

Micky 32

Kivaro wrote: »

Wrapped in this is a possible Plan B solution: An Ireland/UK bubble.

Could be possible. If the vaccines work of course. Ireland/Uk could act as one country that would allow travel between the 2 islands. It would make sense.

BiggJim

Quazzie wrote: »

Aren't the latest reports that the AZ vaccine is pretty much useless against the new strains and therefore all vaccinated with it might aswell not be vaccinated at all?

True it was all over the papers. As good as useless when it comes.to the new strains. Sure the government aren't even bothered using it here anymore.

d161

Deleted User wrote: »

It feels to me as though a corner has been turned in the last few days, but in a bad way. The government know people are verging on being unwilling to comply indefinitely and they (the government) have nothing hopeful to offer people nor any new suggestions besides tougher restrictions and scaring the crap out of people. They repeatedly assured us since last October that vaccines were our one great hope, but reading between the lines it feels as though they no longer believe that. I could be wrong? Or is it just that they don't expect to get enough vaccines for a very long time?

I agree with your analysis. I believe the media are reporting what the government wants them to report and that they, in the last 2 weeks, have been preparing us for a long period of restrictions similar to 2020, ie level 3 during the summer and then back into lockdown next winter.
The media was complicit in this during the early stages and many people genuinely believed that flattening the curve would end this. Nobody in the media asked what then once the curve was flattened.
You can call this wearing the jersey or whatever but I think the media, and in particular RTE, have been a disgrace.

If it was only about infection numbers, they could have taken extreme measures for example a 2 week complete lock down with 24 hr curfew for all but emergency services to get the numbers very low. I'd argue that this would be better than what we are enduring. They obviously don't believe that this would keep numbers down and on reducing such restrictions back to level 5+/level 4, the numbers would start to ramp up again and before long we'd be back to circa 1000 per day.
I do agree that you cannot stop this virus no more than any other virus during the winter without lockdown.

Regarding vaccines, these are no longer as seen as the medium term solution because of vaccine supply and/or vaccine efficacy with the mutations.

The vaccines were the carrot but that's not working so they're reverted to the stick. Increased checkpoints, fines etc and trying to divert attention by blaming people for going on holidays etc.

So the only question is what do they view as the medium term. I suspect it will include next winter.

Kivaro

Micky 32 wrote: »

Could be possible. If the vaccines work of course. Ireland/Uk could act as one country that would allow travel between the 2 islands. It would make sense.

Many of us wouldn't mind an Ireland/Spain bubble (for some warmth and sunshine), but with our border in the north of Ireland and all that it entails, plus the close trading partnership we have with the UK, this is something we should start discussing now. Not being pessimistic but what if a virus variant makes the current batch of vaccines null and void, and with the re-engineering of an mRNA vaccine to fight off this variant, what about the next variant?
We really do need to start talking about a Plan B in order to return to some semblance of normality, even if it is localised.

joseywhales

Where is this idea that the "vaccines don't work" coming from? We know that they all provide some protection, we only know that one of about 6,astra zeneca, has reduced efficacy against one of the strains, south african. How does this translate to all vaccines are useless?

Micky 32

joseywhales wrote: »

Where is this idea that the "vaccines don't work" coming from? We know that they all provide some protection, we only know that one of about 6,astra zeneca, has reduced efficacy against one of the strains, south african. How does this translate to all vaccines are useless?

That’s why i don’t bother my ass replying to said posts anymore.

Baggly

BiggJim wrote: »

True it was all over the papers. As good as useless when it comes.to the new strains. Sure the government aren't even bothered using it here anymore.

Mod

Post or PM me some proof of that, or drop it please.

mandrake04

Kivaro wrote: »

Many of us wouldn't mind an Ireland/Spain bubble (for some warmth and sunshine), but with our border in the north of Ireland and all that it entails, plus the close trading partnership we have with the UK, this is something we should start discussing now. Not being pessimistic but what if a virus variant makes the current batch of vaccines null and void, and with the re-engineering of an mRNA vaccine to fight off this variant, what about the next variant?
We really do need to start talking about a Plan B in order to return to some semblance of normality, even if it is localised.

It was reported on Newstalk the other day that Spain has been warned of a 4th wave.

Here is a more recent report https://youtu.be/MhG0fmBOiJw

Kivaro

Kivaro wrote: »

Many of us wouldn't mind an Ireland/Spain bubble (for some warmth and sunshine), but with our border in the north of Ireland and all that it entails, plus the close trading partnership we have with the UK, this is something we should start discussing now. Not being pessimistic but what if a virus variant makes the current batch of vaccines null and void, and with the re-engineering of an mRNA vaccine to fight off this variant, what about the next variant?
We really do need to start talking about a Plan B in order to return to some semblance of normality, even if it is localised.

I think that plan B would take place quite quickly, and would be an EU and UK approach with hotel quarantine into the zone from outside for as long as it takes, but relatively free movement inside

Zero COVID is a total non-starter for individual countries, but is doable for the whole EU / UK as one.

You'll get a few tough borders, across which there is historically a lot of travel, like Croatia / Serbia, but should vaccines just not work (which they will, I am sure) I think that this would be the solution that everyone could get behind.

Samsonsmasher

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that plan B would take place quite quickly, and would be an EU and UK approach with hotel quarantine into the zone from outside for as long as it takes, but relatively free movement inside

Zero COVID is a total non-starter for individual countries, but is doable for the whole EU / UK as one.

You'll get a few tough borders, across which there is historically a lot of travel, like Croatia / Serbia, but should vaccines just not work (which they will, I am sure) I think that this would be the solution that everyone could get behind.

Or simply throwing in the towel and getting back to normal opening things up letting life get back to normal letting everyone take their chances while a vaccine is made available each season to whomever wants or needs it?
This is increasingly the most obvious and least worst and most realistic option.

Samsonsmasher

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

Or simply throwing in the towel and getting back to normal opening things up letting life get back to normal letting everyone take their chances while a vaccine is made available each season to whomever wants or needs it?
This is increasingly the most obvious and least worst and most realistic option.

I agree. But our politicians have shown no sign that that is a road they are prepared to go down, no matter how long it is