When will it all end?

Liberalbrehon

The OP asked when will it end. What if it doesn't? Despite vaccinations, variants move to fast to get booster shots for. How long can level 5 continue? What happens when the money runs out? Where is the apex in the future when the cost of money goes back up? There is so much money in the system, inflation has to kick in eventually and when it does, interest rates will go up fast. Governments won't be able to borrow as easily, unless EU becomes a federal country. It might be able to borrow money cheaper. Hard to see happening but not impossible. But if the money did run out, then the only option would be for a stay at home for covid patients. If you have it, you can't get treatment in a hospital. At that point, anything is possible. Hopefully this nightmare would never happen.
Covid will be with us for decades imo. Life won't be the same even if vaccinations do manage to stem the tide. Until the entire world is vaccinated, until everyone wears masks and properly. until travel is restricted almost completely. The world has to go through a lot of hoops imo have covid end. Unless there is a world government or attitudes of governments change, I don't see it happening easily. I do know one thing, from now on, people will refer to life, BC or AC. Before Covid, After Covid.

Micky 32

The hysteria continues ……if the vaccines work there will be no appetite for SD etc. once the population are inoculated and disease is low lets see how many people will SD.

BiggJim

markodaly wrote: »

Going back to the OP's question, when will it all end, well how long is a piece of string.

2021 is not going to be the 2021 many people envisioned, even a month ago.
This year will see longer lockdowns and restrictions with border controls.
We wont be having a full house on All-Ireland day.
Restrictions will ease later on in the year but to be honest some form will exist until next year.

If people are looking at normal, Feb 2020 normal. Maybe end of next year, with a gradual process in getting there from here.

2025 hopefully

landofthetree

Micky 32 wrote: »

The hysteria continues ……if the vaccines work there will be no appetite for SD etc. once the population are inoculated and disease is low lets see how many people will SD.

Once we get the over 70s vaccinated we can open up stuff.

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1360157377484513280

suicide_circus

landofthetree wrote: »

Once we get the over 70s vaccinated we can open up stuff.

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1360157377484513280

"Can" and "will" are two different things...

BiggJim

landofthetree wrote: »

Once we get the over 70s vaccinated we can open up stuff.

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1360157377484513280

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

suicide_circus

BiggJim wrote: »

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

I don't think thats remotely viable financially

francogarbanzo

BiggJim wrote: »

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

Wishful thinking.

landofthetree

BiggJim wrote: »

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

Thats will fall even more and more once you get more vaccinated.

By July the UK will have very few in hospital.

But of course your anti-vax like so many accounts that signed up this month. Worrying times for ant- vax loons. If vaccines end covid it cant be good for your pitiful agenda.

BiggJim

landofthetree wrote: »

Thats will fall even more and more once you get more vaccinated.

By July the UK will have very few in hospital.

But of course your anti-vax like so many accounts that signed up this month.

Firstly it's spelt you're and secondly no I'm absolutely not anti-vax. What gave you that impression?

Micky 32

BiggJim wrote: »

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

Lol. Dream on though, :pac:

irishguitarlad

irishguitarlad wrote: »

Yeah but not everyone wore them, they only wore them there pre-covid if you had a cold or flu so as not to pass it on to the next person.

They are worn mostly to mitigate damage done by filthy air.

Le Bruise

BiggJim wrote: »

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

You've mentioned 2025 a few times. What's magically going to happen that year to make it all end?

I agree that the vaccine cutting 2/3rds of hospitalisations doesn't mean we can fully go back to normal, but we'd certainly be able to ease the restrictions on a phased basis in line with the rest of the vaccination roll out. This should allow a full reopening once we achieve 70/80% of folk vaccinated.

I say should, as the narrative of the powers that be seems to be changing on the criteria for re opening and I'm not sure why!

markodaly

Micky 32 wrote: »

The hysteria continues ……if the vaccines work there will be no appetite for SD etc. once the population are inoculated and disease is low lets see how many people will SD.

Worldwide, yes but we won't be there for ages yet.
A booster will be needed for a while yet I think.

Micky 32

Le Bruise wrote: »

I say should, as the narrative of the powers that be seems to be changing on the criteria for re opening and I'm not sure why!

If the vaccines work the government will have no other choice to start opening up. They’ll be under huge political pressure. There will be a lot of tension between the people and governments if we’re no longer getting sick and still closed up. That won’t work fullstop.

Regarding SD if no one is getting sick anymore best of luck trying to stop people riding all around them :pac:

Le Bruise

Le Bruise wrote: »

....the narrative of the powers that be seems to be changing on the criteria for re opening and I'm not sure why!

Its because of the variants. And governments are boxing themselves into a corner. Once more countries start dong proper genome sequencing, I am sure that we will find that there are tens of new variants all over the place, and that they will keep on coming.

So we will never get past the current rationale for keeping restrictions in place

It's just a reactive and panicked response which will see us being in this for much longer than we need to be

markodaly

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

So what's the end game? If not mass vaccination, then what?

Very very low covid infection rates, locally, regionally and worldwide.
We can open up locally if we get Ireland down to single-digit infection rates.

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

Worldwide, yes but we won't be there for ages yet.
A booster will be needed for a while yet I think.

You’re in fantasy land if people will comply with SD once vaccinated and very little sickness around.

People will be less cautious.

Josey569

I'm most concerned about how effective the vaccine will be against the new strains.

I wonder How long will we be waiting for an effective vaccine against all strains

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

When we have mass vaccination, just as our politicians spent most of last Autumn telling us?



Fair enough, but the question is, when does it, and what is the criteria? If not a vaccine, what?



Leo Varadkar.



Leo Varadkar FFS!

https://www.irishpost.com/news/varadkar-matches-concerts-and-festivals-could-return-by-the-summer-199483

"If things work out with the summer, [there’s]the possibility of returning to things like football matches, and maybe even concerts and festivals and gatherings too,” he said.

"The first quarter of the year is still difficult," as it is still winter and the vaccination is still being deployed, but "the second quarter of the year, life is starting to look a little bit more normal again."

Now again, my point is this. If there's a delay to the administration of the vaccine, then obviously social distancing is also extended. What's really f*cking with me and many others now is that they're saying on the one hand that we could still have mass vaccination by the end of September, and on the other hand that we'll still have to have social distancing next Christmas.

Ok, so fair enough - twelve weeks after mass vaccination isn't enough time. My question is, what is?

What is the criteria for doing away with social distancing?

If it's not mass vaccination, then what is it?

This shouldn't be as complicated a question as it seems to be for you to get your head around.

I'm not asking for an end date, I'm asking for criteria. The previous criteria was around 80% vaccination. Leo's latest remarks indicate that this is no longer the case. So what is?

...
So what's the end game? If not mass vaccination, then what?

He said that "If things work out with the summer, [there’s]the possibility of returning to things like football matches, and maybe even concerts and festivals and gatherings too". He had three caveats in that sentence and you seem to have read it as a guarantee of a return to normality. It's a simple case of reading what you wanted to read. I read government statements and I read that as a theoretical possibility IF everything goes 100% in our favour - in other words, possible but not likely. Why did you take it as a guarantee?

People seem to both accept the reality that the government doesn't know exactly what will happen because nobody knows exactly what will happen, and simultaneously act shocked when government doesn't know what will happen and can't set the schedule for what will happen in the future.

Reality is that they don't know the criteria (as load of people have pointed out). Setting criteria in the absence of data is a terrible idea. They don't know. You know they don't know. So why are acting surprised that they don't know?

Would you be happier if they spaffed-off a set of criteria now, just to shut you up, and then simply ignore them later when the actual evidence comes in?

markodaly

Micky 32 wrote: »

You’re in fantasy land if people will comply with SD once vaccinated and very little sickness around.

People will be less cautious.

Then we won't get to low rates of Covid and we will be under restrictions much longer.

We were here twice before, yet some still haven't learned the lesson.

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

Then we won't get to low rates of Covid and we will be under restrictions much longer.

We were here twice before, yet some still haven't learned the lesson.

Once again choosing the parts of the post you only want to hear. I meant if we are vaccinated by September and disease is low people won’t be as compliant about SD.

You seem to be stuck back in 2020 when there were no vaccines, once again.

Micky 32

Josey569 wrote: »

I'm most concerned about how effective the vaccine will be against the new strains.

I wonder How long will we be waiting for an effective vaccine against all strains

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-226857/v1

JDD

BiggJim wrote: »

Even if the vaccine did cut numbers by 2/3rds thats still far too many people to burden the healthcare system with. I genuinely think a worldwide zero covid approach will ultimately end up being the solution so hopefully a gradual phased decrease in restrictions ending around 2025.

I think this pie in the sky. There's no way every government will come together to impose the same restrictions.

I think once all over 50's and vulnerable have been offered the vaccine, we can open to Level 3. I would have hoped that this would be May, but with the vaccination debacle it is more likely to be July. Opening up will lead to a higher number of infections initially, but it will be younger people so there will not be loads of hospitalisations. In addition, it will be summer, which will suppress high infection numbers naturally, even with the Kent strain.

There is of course a risk that the virus circulating amongst the younger population over the summer, and possible among some young/unvaccinated people abroad will result in a further strain that is resistant to our current vaccines coming back home. That said, I do not think any government will be able to continue strict restrictions on the off chance that a) there is a new strain, b) it is resistant to current vaccines and c) it is equal to or more serious than the current strain.

I agree that this year is going to see some form of restrictions, possibly all the way to winter 21, but I do firmly believe that this is our last Level 5. If I were to put money on when we get to Level 1/0 I think it will be winter at the earliest, and likely to be Jan/Feb 2022.

Will there be lasting effects of this pandemic? Of course. You don't have a seismic event such as this and not have permanent changes. We're still dealing with the fall out from 9/11, and this is arguably a far more catastrophic worldwide event. Masks will become a more prevalent feature I expect. I certainly will have no problem wearing one on public transport if I have a cold or cough. I don't know what else will become permanent, but I do expect the next few years to be absolutely wild as people get back to concerts, partying and travelling.

AdamD

Where is the logic in us struggling away to finally achieve level 3 in July, with vaccinations. When we were able to do that safely in July last year with no vaccinations?

BTownB

AdamD wrote: »

Where is the logic in us struggling away to finally achieve level 3 in July, with vaccinations. When we were able to do that safely in July last year with no vaccinations?

There is no logic. We've lost the plot now altogether.

Whiplash85

AdamD wrote: »

Where is the logic in us struggling away to finally achieve level 3 in July, with vaccinations. When we were able to do that safely in July last year with no vaccinations?

And no masks. It is truly mind boggling that this stuff is not getting challenged. It is an outrage what is going on.

W123-80's

Josey569 wrote: »

I'm most concerned about how effective the vaccine will be against the new strains.

I wonder How long will we be waiting for an effective vaccine against all strains

I think this is the huge elephant in the room that anyone confused as to why we cannot put an end date on lockdowns is failing to see.
Surely it is patently obvious that vaccine efficacy in the real world is an unknown hence why we have to remain cautious.

I do suspect that the Govt. and medical professionals know more than they are letting on in terms of the efficacy of vaccines and my suspicion is the news is not good which is why the narrative this week has been very much focused on reminding people that we are in this for the long haul.
I said it back in January and I stand by it today, until vaccine efficacy can be verified in the real world (new strains etc), than we are all in limbo.

I don't understand the anger with our Govt, its not like its any better anywhere else?
France have a 6pm curfew!! Can you imagine the moaning online if that was implemented here!

I think this will go on for a number of years, no idea how many but 2021 is a write off and I would be confident a good portion of 2022 is also.

BigMo1

July 2020 had single digit cases a day, no community spread and zero vaccinations. People need to cop on. If we're in that situation this July, the main lesson we should learn from last year is to chase every case and contact to isolate them. Life has to go on if we're in a similar situation this summer with vulnerable people vaccinated.

JDD

JDD wrote: »

Will there be lasting effects of this pandemic? Of course. You don't have a seismic event such as this and not have permanent changes.

An extended economic depression and austerity like we've never seen, including ironically deep cuts in the health budget, that will cause far more deaths than COVID and in much younger people, coupled with all the missed cancers etc because people were too scared to get checked out, and GPs being phone only but sure no one is talking about these effects.

By 2022 no one will even be talking about COVID. COVID is the Trump of 2021.