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When will it all end?

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    #1802
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭JDD


    AdamD wrote: »
    Where is the logic in us struggling away to finally achieve level 3 in July, with vaccinations. When we were able to do that safely in July last year with no vaccinations?

    I suppose because double the number of close contacts are being infected by the virus now as opposed to last year, because of the Kent strain.

    So while we were able to plummet from 1000 cases a day in mid-April last year, to virtually nothing in June, we're going to see a much slower rate of reduction between now and May. And when we open up, we're going to see numbers increase at a higher rate than we did in August/September last year.

    You also have to factor in lockdown fatigue. People were very cautious still when we opened up in June last year. Most people were only meeting up outside and everybody was still keeping their distance and most were not travelling abroad. If we went to a Level 1/2 in June/July this year it would be like the kids pouring out on the last day of school. It's unfortunate, but we know it's true because look at the level of get togethers and parties there were in December.

    We have a window between July and October where infections will be lower than now (but will likely still be 2/300 a day) where we can get as many vaccinated as possible before the winter weather sets in and people go back to socialising inside. If we open up completely in July we will end up with maybe 2-3000 infections a day. Not an issue, says you, if they are younger people. BUT.... younger people still get hospitalised. Obviously in far lower percentages than older people but if the virus is let run rampant in the younger population we will still see a chunk of hospitalisations. This will only interfere with vaccination resources and we don't want to be in a position in October where we still have 2 million people to be vaccinated heading into another winter.

    Personally I'd prefer Level 3 from July - September where I can drink in a beer garden than Level 1 during the summer only for another fecking Level 3 next October when it's baltic out and you can't do anything.


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    #1803
    Samsonsmasher
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 610 ✭✭✭Samsonsmasher


    Hmob wrote: »
    There's a selfishness and even a vindictiveness from a cohort of the population who don't care about or want rid of masks and SD

    It is a major restriction to many like the poster above

    I don't think government will be able to retain control with severe restrictions this year and we'll be influenced by events elsewhere anyhow

    This weekend couples who not living together and beyond 5km can't meet up and be intimate.
    Young guys and girls who are single are isolated and alone.
    One of the busiest nights of the year for restaurants bars nightclubs cinemas and hotels is a write off.

    When are people to stand up to the government and stop this lunacy???


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    #1804
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Josey569 wrote: »
    I'm most concerned about how effective the vaccine will be against the new strains.

    I wonder How long will we be waiting for an effective vaccine against all strains

    Except for the South African strain the vaccines work and that’s not very transmittable.

    We just have to open up with precautions when mostly vaccinated. Economies can’t stand much more of this.


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    #1805
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,235 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    W123-80's wrote: »
    I think this is the huge elephant in the room that anyone confused as to why we cannot put an end date on lockdowns is failing to see.
    Surely it is patently obvious that vaccine efficacy in the real world is an unknown hence why we have to remain cautious.

    I do suspect that the Govt. and medical professionals know more than they are letting on in terms of the efficacy of vaccines and my suspicion is the news is not good which is why the narrative this week has been very much focused on reminding people that we are in this for the long haul.
    I said it back in January and I stand by it today, until vaccine efficacy can be verified in the real world (new strains etc), than we are all in limbo.

    I don't understand the anger with our Govt, its not like its any better anywhere else?
    France have a 6pm curfew!! Can you imagine the moaning online if that was implemented here!

    I think this will go on for a number of years, no idea how many but 2021 is a write off and I would be confident a good portion of 2022 is also.

    I wouldn't call 2021 a write-off as I expect restrictions to reduce during the summer and I look forward to be BBQs and meeting people again. But i expect distancing and masks to be around for the next few years. I also hope there won't be any more lockdowns and I think that's achievable as we vaccinate over the summer ahead of next winter.

    But you're right about the new strains being the elephant in the room. They can't set concrete plans as they new strains have the potential to upend the plans at any time. All the new strains might be fine, more benign, less harmful, less transmissible and no problem. But some could also be the exact opposite.

    The government definitely know more than they're letting on. Internal research will show a range of scenarios from best case to worst case, all with a range of uncertainty. People don't react well to uncertainty, even when it's the best research they have - just look at the reaction to uncertainty expressed by Leo, in this thread.

    Truth is that we're all (the entire world) waiting to se how thigs go over the next few months.


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    #1806
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,235 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    BigMo1 wrote: »
    July 2020 had single digit cases a day, no community spread and zero vaccinations. People need to cop on. If we're in that situation this July, the main lesson we should learn from last year is to chase every case and contact to isolate them. Life has to go on if we're in a similar situation this summer with vulnerable people vaccinated.

    I suspect they would be much more inclined to loosen restrictions during the summer this year IF we're in the same situation as last year. Keeping in mind that the virus is much more transmissible this year than it was last year, with mitigating factors including the vaccine rollout.


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    #1807
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    JDD wrote: »
    If we went to a Level 1/2 in June/July this year it would be like the kids pouring out on the last day of school. It's unfortunate, but we know it's true because look at the level of get togethers and parties there were in December.

    This is 90% of the increase in transmissions of the "Kent strain" IMO.


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    #1808
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    I suspect they would be much more inclined to loosen restrictions during the summer this year IF we're in the same situation as last year. Keeping in mind that the virus is much more transmissible this year than it was last year, with mitigating factors including the vaccine rollout.

    This is definitely not settled science. It is settled in media hysteria. It's clearly fitter than other variants but this is normal, like the way the Spanish strain became dominant here last summer.


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    #1809
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,235 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    This is definitely not settled science.

    Isn't it?

    Fair enough if it isn't settled science. The reports about transmissibility of the Kent variant during the week certainly suggest that it's the dominant strain in Ireland and it's more transmissible.

    They said the old strains transmitted to about 12% of close contacts and the Kent variant transmits to about 22% of close contacts.

    What have you read?


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    #1810
    tenry
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭tenry


    I had almost forgotten what life without masks was like. It's going to be a great day when we get rid of this virus...


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    #1811
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    Isn't it?

    Fair enough if it isn't settled science. The reports about transmissibility of the Kent variant during the week certainly suggest that it's the dominant strain in Ireland and it's more transmissible.

    They said the old strains transmitted to about 12% of close contacts and the Kent variant transmits to about 22% of close contacts.

    What have you read?

    Which study are you referring to - I would like to read it.

    I haven't read anything yet that separates out the huge increase in socialising in the Christmas period from the actual transmissibility of the virus. Maybe your study managed to do this, but I don't see how.

    It's clear it has some advantages over other strains, but again, this is natural selection, like grey squirrels pushing out red ones.

    It seems to me the Kent strain has evolved to transmit better with our current lockdown set of restrictions and climate. With a flood of people coming back from the UK over Christmas infected with the Kent strain, mixing with people, i.e. their close family and friends, who up to now had been very careful, and hadn't gotten infected to date, it's no surprise it became the dominant strain here and remains so.

    Whether it is actually far more infectious, and to what degree, is difficult to prove. It might just be better at getting through masks or in cold damp climates.


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    #1812
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    This is definitely not settled science. It is settled in media hysteria. It's clearly fitter than other variants but this is normal, like the way the Spanish strain became dominant here last summer.

    It is settled. What isn’t known is how the summer will affect the R value of the new viruses. I believe with vaccines and summer time we should be able to loosen restrictions anyway.


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    #1813
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It is settled. What isn’t known is how the summer will affect the R value of the new viruses. I believe with vaccines and summer time we should be able to loosen restrictions anyway.

    If it is, it should be the dominant strain in any country where it is present. It is in the US for a while now but is at very low levels. Science seems to get "settled" in days lately. Changed very much from when I studied it. In fact when I studied it, I never heard the expression "the science is settled".


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    #1814
    ujjjjjjjjj
    Registered Users Posts: 923 ✭✭✭ujjjjjjjjj


    NIMAN wrote: »
    Mask wearing will become a thing in this country for quite a few years to come, just like you'd have seen it in some Asian countries before COVID.

    Depressing thought and I certainly won't be doing it as soon as it's not illegal/ condition for entry, travel etc. Not a hope.


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    #1815
    PCeeeee
    Registered Users Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭PCeeeee


    Samsonsmasher wrote: »
    This weekend couples who not living together and beyond 5km can't meet up and be intimate.
    Young guys and girls who are single are isolated and alone.
    One of the busiest nights of the year for restaurants bars nightclubs cinemas and hotels is a write off.

    When are people to stand up to the government and stop this lunacy???

    What are you doing to advocate change? Apart from your work here in the cyber trenches.


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    #1816
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    If it is, it should be the dominant strain in any country where it is present. It is in the US for a while now but is at very low levels. Science seems to get "settled" in days lately. Changed very much from when I studied it.

    Is that true after just a few weeks in a lockdown situation in the US, where foreign travel is limited.

    It is the dominant strain in Ireland after a few weeks. It was clearly introduced around Christmas.


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    #1817
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,235 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Which study are you referring to - I would like to read it.

    I haven't read anything yet that separates out the huge increase in socialising in the Christmas period from the actual transmissibility of the virus. Maybe your study managed to do this, but I don't see how.

    It's clear it has some advantages over other strains, but again, this is natural selection, like grey squirrels pushing out red ones.

    It seems to me the Kent strain has evolved to transmit better with our current lockdown set of restrictions and climate. With a flood of people coming back from the UK over Christmas infected with the Kent strain, mixing with people, i.e. their close family and friends, who up to now had been very careful, and hadn't gotten infected to date, it's no surprise it became the dominant strain here and remains so.

    Whether it is actually far more infectious, and to what degree, is difficult to prove. It might just be better at getting through masks or in cold damp climates.

    I didn't say it was a study, I said "reports" as I read a news article that referenced research that found the Kent variant infects 22% of close contacts where the older variants had infected 12%.

    I'll see if I can find the article. But why do you care if the about whether the new variant is "better at getting through masks or in cold damp climates"? If it's more transmissible, then it's more transmissible and the same restrictions as last year won't be as effective as last year.


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    #1818
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Is that true after just a few weeks in a lockdown situation in the US, where foreign travel is limited.

    It is the dominant strain in Ireland after a few weeks. It was clearly introduced around Christmas.

    The Spanish strain was dominant here after last summer, therefore it must have been more transmissible. Where was the hysteria around that one?


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    #1819
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    But why do you care if the about whether the new variant is "better at getting through masks or in cold damp climates"? If it's more transmissible, then it's more transmissible and the same restrictions as last year won't be as effective as last year.

    Because if we knew what made it more transmissible and by how much we could take precautions that actually work? It might not be more transmissible IN ALL SCENARIOS.

    Lions thrive on the plains of Africa but no so much here.

    Viruses will adapt to the environment they find themselves in. Currently that is lockdown, social distancing, wearing masks and packing into supermarkets. So it stands to reason COVID will adapt to be maximally transmissible in that scenario.


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    #1820
    latency89
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 137 ✭✭latency89


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The Spanish strain was dominant here after last summer, therefore it must have been more transmissible. Where was the hysteria around that one?

    We had nothing to lose then

    We have vaccines to protect now, everything to lose, hence hysteria


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    #1821
    lemush
    Registered Users Posts: 680 ✭✭✭lemush


    tenry wrote: »
    I had almost forgotten what life without masks was like. It's going to be a great day when we get rid of this virus...


    You don't get rid of viruses, coronavirus is here to stay. The question is how much longer will people put up with the draconian measures imposed on them.


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    #1822
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-01-13/how-transmissible-is-new-uk-covid-variant-b117/13053548
    "The problem with trying to estimate the transmission value is that we can't do controlled lab studies to work out how much the increase in transmission is due to the virus, versus how much it's due to social factors … things like the mobility of people, how well they're adhering to lockdowns, whether schools are open," said Dr Sherry from The Doherty Institute.

    "We have to rely on our observations of what's happening in the UK."

    This is a real scientist speaking
    In recent weeks, a handful of preliminary reports and epidemiological observations have helped to pinpoint the effect of the new variant, with several suggesting an increase in transmissibility of around 50 per cent.

    This would need review
    Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine tested different mathematical models to work out which one best predicted the number of new confirmed cases seen in the UK. Their study, which has not yet undergone peer review, estimated the new strain was 56 per cent more contagious.

    This screams bad science. 56% is an impossibly precise number for something with so many caveats and uncertainties.


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    #1823
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The Spanish strain was dominant here after last summer, therefore it must have been more transmissible. Where was the hysteria around that one?

    I’m pretty sure there was hysteria last summer?

    You asked a question and don’t seem to like the facts. I don’t like it either. Would have thought a few weeks ago that vaccines and Summer would see cases drop without restrictions but this virus is clearly more transmittable.


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    #1824
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    This screams bad science. 56% is an impossibly precise number for something with so many caveats and uncertainties.

    You’ll probably need to review the primary literature on this, not the newspaper report, and then find the flaws and present them.


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    #1825
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,235 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Because if we knew what made it more transmissible and by how much we could take precautions that actually work? It might not be more transmissible IN ALL SCENARIOS.

    Lions thrive on the plains of Africa but no so much here.

    Viruses will adapt to the environment they find themselves in. Currently that is lockdown, social distancing, wearing masks and packing into supermarkets. So it stands to reason COVID will adapt to be maximally transmissible in that scenario.
    I don't claim to have the answers to your questions. I just read a news article that referenced the new strain as the dominant one and that it infects almost twice the percentage of close contacts. I'll see if I can find the news article.

    I'm impressed by your scepticism of this news (news which you didn't like). Offering to read the original study, offering nuanced explanations for why it could be more transmissible but it isn't any kind of actual problem, critique of why it definitely should not be taken seriously. I'm kind of wondering why you don't offer the same scepticism to news you do want to hear. Why is that?


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    #1826
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I’m pretty sure there was hysteria last summer?

    Nothing like the hysteria around this. It was just the standard hysteria around all things COVID back then.
    Deleted User wrote: »
    You asked a question and don’t seem to like the facts. I don’t like it either. Would have thought a few weeks ago that vaccines and Summer would see cases drop without restrictions but this virus is clearly more transmittable.

    I love facts. I just don't think the confidence in how this variant is presented as so much more transmissiable - which happened to coincide with the biggest mixing of people in Ireland in peak COVID season since the beginning of COVID - proves anything. It MIGHT be more transmissible - but you would need a bulletproof scientific study to prove it.

    And COVID is unquestionably seasonal. All you have to do is look at Sweden to show that.


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    #1827
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    I'm kind of wondering why you don't offer the same scepticism to news you do want to hear. Why is that?

    I am sceptical of all news, including news I do not want to hear. For example I'm very sceptical that secondary school students don't play a much larger role in transmissions in private homes than is portrayed in the media here, and that is definitely news I do not want to hear.

    There has been so many reports of bad and just flat out wrong science since this started it horrendous. Extremely unlikely scenarios presented as virtual certainties, while extremely likely scenarios dismissed as conspiracy theories. "Experts" who have been repeatedly wrong hailed as heroes and infallible, and wheeled out again and again. It's depressing.

    So it's not a case of only being sceptical of the stories I don't want to be true. I'm just tired of it all. Tired of the manipulation and lies we have been fed. Masks don't work. Then they do. Vaccines don't work, Zero Covid, natural herd immunity doesn't exist, and is a far right conspiracy etc.

    The Astra Zeneca produced at cost easy to store and administer vaccine presented as some pro Brexit evil concoction, and used as a political football, while the 10x more expensive logistically impractical Pfizer Biontech one presented as infallible.

    I could fill a book with it. It's exactly like a gaslighting partner, lying about things you can clearly see are true to the extent you begin to doubt your own sanity.


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    #1828
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Liberalbrehon wrote: »
    Covid will be with us for decades imo. Life won't be the same even if vaccinations do manage to stem the tide. Until the entire world is vaccinated, until everyone wears masks and properly. until travel is restricted almost completely. The world has to go through a lot of hoops imo have covid end. Unless there is a world government or attitudes of governments change, I don't see it happening easily. I do know one thing, from now on, people will refer to life, BC or AC. Before Covid, After Covid.


    At last, someone who says things as they are!


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    #1829
    Micky 32
    Registered Users Posts: 6,556 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    At last, someone who says things as they are!

    You have no evidence to suggest that will be the case. You pulled that right out of your ass :pac:


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    #1830
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users Posts: 2,307 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    You have no evidence to suggest that will be the case. You pulled that right out of your ass :pac:

    You have no evidence that it will be otherwise either ;)


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    #1831
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Liberalbrehon wrote: »
    The OP asked when will it end. What if it doesn't? Despite vaccinations, variants move to fast to get booster shots for. How long can level 5 continue? What happens when the money runs out? Where is the apex in the future when the cost of money goes back up? There is so much money in the system, inflation has to kick in eventually and when it does, interest rates will go up fast. Governments won't be able to borrow as easily, unless EU becomes a federal country. It might be able to borrow money cheaper. Hard to see happening but not impossible. But if the money did run out, then the only option would be for a stay at home for covid patients. If you have it, you can't get treatment in a hospital. At that point, anything is possible. Hopefully this nightmare would never happen.
    Covid will be with us for decades imo. Life won't be the same even if vaccinations do manage to stem the tide. Until the entire world is vaccinated, until everyone wears masks and properly. until travel is restricted almost completely. The world has to go through a lot of hoops imo have covid end. Unless there is a world government or attitudes of governments change, I don't see it happening easily. I do know one thing, from now on, people will refer to life, BC or AC. Before Covid, After Covid.

    This takes too long to dissect but it is mostly wrong, and hysterical. I would worry about the new variants now but they exist because we have been so slow in getting to herd immunity, one way or the other. Vaccines or the other way. Once we vaccinate we are golden. Any new variants might need some local closures of travel from affected countries but travel in general will come back.

    The Spanish flu isn't with us now. It went through he community, herd immunity was achieved and it died off.


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