When will it all end?

latency89

markodaly wrote: »

People swallowed the easy solution like kool-aid,

The approach the majority want in a nut shell

We will see if it the easy solution worked in christmas 2021, I have my doubts it will on it's own tbh.

I would compare the pharmacology only approach to building muscle ( eg vaccinate your way out of this with no travel, leisure, social restrictions etc as the goal )

The Australian approach would be going to the gym, eating very clean ( travel restrictions ), taking in alot of protein, getting test levels to peak levels with pharmacology ( vaccinating ) having a very good training plan ( border control )

The approach the majority want here is to just take steriods ( vaccinating ), not bother with the clean eating or the gym, sure you'll build muscle on tren sitting down on the couch ( which you would )

latency89

Deleted User wrote: »

You're a loss to the scientific community.

Disprove what I just said then if i'm not a loss

Le Bruise

latency89 wrote: »

The approach the majority want in a nut shell

We will see if it the easy solution worked in christmas 2021, I have my doubts it will on it's own tbh.

I would compare the pharmacology only approach to building muscle ( eg vaccinate your way out of this with no travel, leisure, social restrictions etc as the goal )

The Australian approach would be going to the gym, eating very clean ( travel restrictions ), taking in alot of protein, getting test levels to peak levels with pharmacology ( vaccinating ) having a very good training plan ( border control )

The approach the majority want here is to just take steriods ( vaccinating ), not bother with the clean eating or the gym, sure you'll build muscle on tren sitting down on the couch ( which you would )

latency89

Le Bruise wrote: »

Pharmacology only vs Pharmacology/travel restrictions/border controls etc

What will work out the right approach?

Ireland vs Australia, if you not sure

Christmas 2021 will our approach be pharmacology only?

markodaly

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s obvious you really are hoping the vaccines don’t work and enjoying this with glee, does it irk you that people jet off to Lanza? Or what is your obsession with Lanza? Did you see the good news from Israel BTW?

This is a ridiculous assertion tbh.
Yes, deep down I hate people going on holiday and I hate vaccines or something!

I notice you have a fondness for this type of response but rarely tackle the key points I am making.

People can get tired of the lockdown all they want, the virus doesn't care, that is the point of the lockdown, isn't it?

AdamD

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Vaccination is the best chance of getting back to normal but it’s not the only factor. If the vaccine works out brilliantly and is rolled out before the cold weather, then the results could be great and a return to normality would be quite soon. But nobody knows how it will work out and I think that lack of certainty has different effects on different people.

Some exaggerate and misremember being told that we would all be vaccinated in a few weeks and return to normal. I don’t think anyone ever made such a claim and if they did, i doubt they were ever likely to be right.

I listened to a whole range of speakers and realised that there was almost certainly not going to be a quick solution - though I don’t claim to know what will actually happen.

Look at what happens in these threads. The same posters will dismiss bad news and say “they don’t know what will happen” when a speaker delivers bad news, but will hold the same speaker to their word (even when misremembered) when they say something positive. The Leo interview this week is a case in point. People dismiss the up to date info because it’s not what they hey want to hear, and try to hold him to an interview from before the vaccine rollout began (omitting the caveats in that statement).

This continues to baffle me. If vaccines work, which they are showing they do, we should not need anything else to get back to normality.

El_Duderino 09

AdamD wrote: »

This continues to baffle me. If vaccines work, which they are showing they do, we should not need anything else to get back to normality.

Ok. I think that's a very basic view of the situation.

Who told you the vaccine was all that was necessary to get back to normality?

AdamD

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ok. I think that's a very basic view of the situation.

Who told you the vaccine was all that was necessary to get back to normality?

Why do you keep asking people this? I have never said anybody told me anything.

If a vaccine doesn't get the country back to normality, what else will? You haven't answered that anywhere.

Your posting style looks like you're trying to come across as the smartest guy in the room - when really its just a consdescending tone with no substance.

El_Duderino 09

AdamD wrote: »

Why do you keep asking people this? I have never said anybody told me anything.

If a vaccine doesn't get the country back to normality, what else will? You haven't answered that anywhere.

Your posting style looks like you're trying to come across as the smartest guy in the room - when really its just a consdescending tone with no substance.

I'm not setting policy, I'm just observing news and government statements and observing government behaviour. The simple answer is that the government are waiting to see how the vaccine rollout goes and how efficacious the vaccine is (and what mutations occur in the virus etc.)

I keep asking that question because posters keep asserting that they were led to believe that the vaccine alone was going to lead to normality, but nobody seems to remember who told them this would happen.

So if nobody told you the vaccine was enough to get back to normality, why do you think the vaccine alone was going to achieve this?

latency89

AdamD wrote: »

If a vaccine doesn't get the country back to normality, what else will? You haven't answered that anywhere.

A hybrid approach, like China, Australia and the pacific countries are doing would be my answer

Vaccinate, close border, restrict travel in and out.

Anyone that believes vaccines alone will return us to normal this year are wrong imo.

You need a plan B like the pacific countries, shutting down the whole country again would be a failure, again just my opinion.

Do the people that think vaccines alone bringing country back to normal expect anymore lockdowns?

Will this be our last level 5 lockdown?

Vulnerable will be vaccinated in June?

If vaccine only strategy works, shouldn't this be our last lockdown?

Would any of the posters that believe in the vaccine only approach bet money on that no more level 5 lockdowns in Paddy Power? I wouldn't that's for sure.

j@utis

AdamD wrote: »

This continues to baffle me. If vaccines work, which they are showing they do, we should not need anything else to get back to normality.

It's simple: vaccines don't guarantee zero covid19 cases. Here in Ireland any amount of cases at this stage equals lock-down.

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

This is a ridiculous assertion tbh.
Yes, deep down I hate people going on holiday and I hate vaccines or something!

I notice you have a fondness for this type of response but rarely tackle the key points I am making.

People can get tired of the lockdown all they want, the virus doesn't care, that is the point of the lockdown, isn't it?

I have tackled your condescending arrogant replies but you deflect with your replies. Anyway we don’t agree but we can keep going in cirlcles if you like. You see once again you are saying i have something against lockdowns . I don’t. I know they are necessary. I was talking about SD. When people are vaccinated and they see it keeps disease low SD will go out the window so stop replying with an argument that i’m not even arguing about. We get it. We know you don’t want to see things open up or travelling for years to come.

Richard Hillman

Vaccine uptake will be swift until you get to a certain point. We'll be lucky to get to 60-70% uptake. There are people deadset against it, then there are the "don't knows".

Once the virus has died down and we are in double figures, the "don't knows" will turn into "Can't be arsed".

It was talked about in another thread that in Israel they are starting to get to the people resistant to taking it. You have countries like France that are 39% for the vaccine, 38% against.

Here are the numbers. There ain't no way somewhere like Poland will get up 60% vaccinated.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/britons-most-likely-take-covid-vaccine-143029751.html

So when does this all end? We will come to a juncture where government are going to try and convince people into taking the vaccines. I don't think that will work. So they'll keep restrictions going until the vaccine uptake improves. Its probably not going to work. People will dig into the trench and will be not for moving.

This is why the prolonged restriction talk is going on. People are bewildered by it. Governments know they will get to a point where they can vaccine the enthusiastic but will eventually get to a point where they have to come to the resistant.

There is a characature that people who won't take the vaccine are Internet crazys. You'd be surprised at the people in your life that you know that won't take it.

The battleline will be drawn and the story of 2021 will be Pro Versus Anti-Vaccine.

Micky 32

latency89 wrote: »

Vaccinate, close border, restrict travel in and out.

For how long in your fantasy little world,?

growleaves

Ok. I think that's a very basic view of the situation.

Who told you the vaccine was all that was necessary to get back to normality?

Yikes. Simon Harris said in April 2020 that social distancing might last until vaccination of the population of Ireland.

'I think that's a basic view, the situation is very complex' etc., etc.

Waffle, waffle, waffle.

El_Duderino 09

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Vaccine uptake will be swift until you get to a certain point. We'll be lucky to get to 60-70% uptake. There are people deadset against it, then there are the "don't knows".

Once the virus has died down and we are in double figures, the "don't knows" will turn into "Can't be arsed".
...

I think you’re right and this will become a bigger problem as time goes on. During the summer, when restrictions are reduced, I think a lot of the "don't knows" will turn into "Can't be arsed" exactly as you said.

We’ve all seen posters who have said things to the effect that “if everyone else gets vaccinated then I don’t need to get vaccinated”. As is usually the case with anti cancers, they don’t know a lot about it, don’t honk about the transmissions to others and don’t really care. I think it will come back into sharper focus next winter when numbers go back up and restrictions tighten. Then, those people will be asked and begged to get the vaccine so we can get a clear run at normality in 2022.

What will happen exactly and how will it all work out? Who knows.

Ray Donovan

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think you’re right and this will become a bigger problem as time goes on. During the summer, when restrictions are reduced, I think a lot of the "don't knows" will turn into "Can't be arsed" exactly as you said.

We’ve all seen posters who have said things to the effect that “if everyone else gets vaccinated then I don’t need to get vaccinated”. As is usually the case with anti cancers, they don’t know a lot about it, don’t honk about the transmissions to others and don’t really care. I think it will come back into sharper focus next winter when numbers go back up and restrictions tighten. Then, those people will be asked and begged to get the vaccine so we can get a clear run at normality in 2022.

What will happen exactly and how will it all work out? Who knows.

Wouldn’t be so sure restrictions will be lessened in the Summer. Keep them in place as long as possible, break the people, everyone gets vaccinated, then open up.

El_Duderino 09

Ray Donovan wrote: »

Wouldn’t be so sure restrictions will be lessened in the Summer. Keep them in place as long as possible, break the people, everyone gets vaccinated, then open up.

Ok. If that’s your view, that’s ok. I doubt you believe that statement above. It seems like a masochistic thing to say rather then something a reasonable person would actually believe. But it’s indicative of where the conversation is at the moment.

I think restrictions will be reduced over the summer and probably increased again in winter.

Richard Hillman

Ray Donovan wrote: »

Wouldn’t be so sure restrictions will be lessened in the Summer. Keep them in place as long as possible, break the people, everyone gets vaccinated, then open up.

I don't think you'll break them though. Siege mentality will kick in. But this is Ireland we are taking about. With the numbers in the likes of France and Poland where the polls say they are in the minority for uptake, they have absolutely no chance. They'll be pissing in the wind. And there ain't no way anyone is going to coerce the Poles into doing something they don't want.

mcsean2163

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

When we have mass vaccination, just as our politicians spent most of last Autumn telling us?



Fair enough, but the question is, when does it, and what is the criteria? If not a vaccine, what?



Leo Varadkar.



Leo Varadkar FFS!

https://www.irishpost.com/news/varadkar-matches-concerts-and-festivals-could-return-by-the-summer-199483

"If things work out with the summer, [there’s] the possibility of returning to things like football matches, and maybe even concerts and festivals and gatherings too,” he said.

"The first quarter of the year is still difficult," as it is still winter and the vaccination is still being deployed, but "the second quarter of the year, life is starting to look a little bit more normal again."

Now again, my point is this. If there's a delay to the administration of the vaccine, then obviously social distancing is also extended. What's really f*cking with me and many others now is that they're saying on the one hand that we could still have mass vaccination by the end of September, and on the other hand that we'll still have to have social distancing next Christmas.

Ok, so fair enough - twelve weeks after mass vaccination isn't enough time. My question is, what is?

What is the criteria for doing away with social distancing?

If it's not mass vaccination, then what is it?

This shouldn't be as complicated a question as it seems to be for you to get your head around.

I'm not asking for an end date, I'm asking for criteria. The previous criteria was around 80% vaccination. Leo's latest remarks indicate that this is no longer the case. So what is?

This is where the "they want us to stay 2m away from strangers for the rest of our lives" pessimism is coming from. Because they're now saying that they'll want us to do that even after we're all vaccinated, but failing to provide any alternative yardstick or criteria for being able to stop doing it.

And for many people - extroverts, music lovers, single people who would like to date and, dare I say it, ride, people who enjoy or work in hospitality, young people who haven't made their post-school friends yet, etc etc etc - this is the burning question. Because as long as we have to stay 2m from strangers and we can't have parties, concerts, clubs, etc, there's pretty much no possibility of either making new friends or getting the ride.

Nobody is asking for a definitive end date. What we're asking for is an idea of the criteria for this. Previously, we were told that it was mass vaccination. Now, we're being told that it isn't.

So what is it?

What has to happen in order for people to be able to go to a concert, dance with a crowd of strangers and possibly leave with a date arranged because they met someone? What has to happen in order for freshers to go to a club with their new college class and make friends? What has to happen for people to be able to celebrate birthdays, weddings, graduations, etc with a crowd of their friends in their gaff or in a restaurant or nightclub, hugging ,shaking hands, etc etc etc?

Again, not asking for a date. Asking for criteria.

I don't know how much more simply I can put this. We were told that vaccines were the gatekeeper to re-acquiring these basic aspects of being a social species. Now, we're told that they aren't.

This leaves us in the terrifying limbo of not having a clue what actually has to happen in order for the government to announce that the next time you meet your friends, you can sit together on the same couch and have a few beers, or that the next time you match with somebody on Tinder, you can actually go out with them and maybe even kiss them at the end of the date. That when you start college, you can meet your class in a group. That when you turn 30, 40, 50, you can have your friends in your house or to a bar or restaurant, sit around a table, eat some food, and have some fun.

Finally, and I'm repeating this because you really don't seem to be getting it, nobody is asking for a date for these things. We're asking for criteria.

Leo said several weeks ago that we could have festivals and concerts back if everyone was vaccinated by September. Now, he's saying that even if everyone is vaccinated, we still have to socially distance for some indefinite period thereafter.

That is what's pissing people off. That is what, in my view, is an unacceptable limbo to leave people in. All we're asking for is clarity. And I'm absolutely not being hyperbolic in saying this, but in all honesty if anyone in charge expects us to live in social bubbles with no outside interaction for the rest of our lives, I suspect many people would rather they tell us now so we can fashion our own exits from this rapidly disintegrating world.

That isn't hyperbole. Without being able to meaningfully socialise, date, and live like humans, life genuinely doesn't feel like it's worth living. And most people can bear that as long as it's temporary, but this incredibly distressing and frankly terrifying commentary in recent days which suggests that social distancing will remain post-vaccination for some nightmarishly long, and yet completely undefined and unchecked period of time is pushing many people I know personally over the edge. Everyone was doing relatively ok until these comments were made but I've seen more meltdowns about the future from people I know in the last week than I have throughout most of 2020, if I'm honest.

So what's the end game? If not mass vaccination, then what?

I'm afraid I'm in the dark too. It looks like some have given up on social distancing in pursuit of the ride.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/the-gay-orgy-that-exposes-the-hypocrisy-of-hungary-s-illiberals-1.4425895?mode=amp

GazzaL

A bunch of the lads from "non-essential" work finished early today and went for burgers and pints. A great time was had by all.

Beechwoodspark

Hatrick

Looks to me like 90% vaccination before you can do as you outline.

Mr. Karate

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Vaccine uptake will be swift until you get to a certain point. We'll be lucky to get to 60-70% uptake. There are people deadset against it, then there are the "don't knows".

Once the virus has died down and we are in double figures, the "don't knows" will turn into "Can't be arsed".

It was talked about in another thread that in Israel they are starting to get to the people resistant to taking it. You have countries like France that are 39% for the vaccine, 38% against.

Here are the numbers. There ain't no way somewhere like Poland will get up 60% vaccinated.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/britons-most-likely-take-covid-vaccine-143029751.html

So when does this all end? We will come to a juncture where government are going to try and convince people into taking the vaccines. I don't think that will work. So they'll keep restrictions going until the vaccine uptake improves. Its probably not going to work. People will dig into the trench and will be not for moving.

This is why the prolonged restriction talk is going on. People are bewildered by it. Governments know they will get to a point where they can vaccine the enthusiastic but will eventually get to a point where they have to come to the resistant.

There is a characature that people who won't take the vaccine are Internet crazys. You'd be surprised at the people in your life that you know that won't take it.

The battleline will be drawn and the story of 2021 will be Pro Versus Anti-Vaccine.

They're going to have the opposite reaction. Constantly talking about how this lockdown can go on all year and well into next will only make people throw up their hands and say "What's the point of getting it if we're never going to be out of lockdown?"

They need to pull the fingers out of their asses and get on the vaccinations. Holohan and Co need to get off TV, stop holding press conferences and interviews and get on with it. Get to the 70% in order to reopen and stay open and hopefully the reluctant will come around. It can't be any worse than making them think the lockdowns will go on forever no matter what they do.

drunkmonkey

Looks like Israel is on its way out of it, vaccination numbers have stalled at around 50%, they're going down the vaccination card route to only allow people who've had the virus or vaccination to attend business/events, two more weeks and a lot might reopen.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-on-track-to-reopening-large-swaths-of-economy-in-11-days-virus-czar/

Will we be where Israel is now with previous infection and vaccinations by the end of April?

monkeybutter

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Vaccine uptake will be swift until you get to a certain point. We'll be lucky to get to 60-70% uptake. There are people deadset against it, then there are the "don't knows".

Once the virus has died down and we are in double figures, the "don't knows" will turn into "Can't be arsed".

It was talked about in another thread that in Israel they are starting to get to the people resistant to taking it. You have countries like France that are 39% for the vaccine, 38% against.

Here are the numbers. There ain't no way somewhere like Poland will get up 60% vaccinated.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/britons-most-likely-take-covid-vaccine-143029751.html

So when does this all end? We will come to a juncture where government are going to try and convince people into taking the vaccines. I don't think that will work. So they'll keep restrictions going until the vaccine uptake improves. Its probably not going to work. People will dig into the trench and will be not for moving.

This is why the prolonged restriction talk is going on. People are bewildered by it. Governments know they will get to a point where they can vaccine the enthusiastic but will eventually get to a point where they have to come to the resistant.

There is a characature that people who won't take the vaccine are Internet crazys. You'd be surprised at the people in your life that you know that won't take it.

The battleline will be drawn and the story of 2021 will be Pro Versus Anti-Vaccine.

Are you one of them?

Every single antivax person I've met has had some sort of mental issue, all would see conspiracy theories everywhere, felt they were the only ones smart enough to see beyond it

Look at the states, they are already up to 12% of the population has had it, and that's just the ones who bothered getting a test

Probably skewed towards the people who were anti mask anti social distancing and no doubt anti vax

So let those who don't want it just get it

Problem solved

No travel for them either and a few other restrictions will soon soften their cough

Mr. Karate

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They're going to have the opposite reaction. Constantly talking about how this lockdown can go on all year and well into next will only make people throw up their hands and say "What's the point of getting it if we're never going to be out of lockdown?"

They need to pull the fingers out of their asses and get on the vaccinations. Holohan and Co need to get off TV, stop holding press conferences and interviews and get on with it. Get to the 70% in order to reopen and stay open and hopefully the reluctant will come around. It can't be any worse than making them think the lockdowns will go on forever no matter what they do.

If we stall at 60 or 70% I would absolutely support some kind of certification to be allowed into pubs or other aspects of normal life. It’s complicated, but anti vaxxers shouldn’t get a free ride

The UK should show us where we are likely to stall in terms of percentage uptake

Micky 32

Green shoots of positivity??

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1360320443396337667?s=20

Ramasun

We can't reopen too early because there won't be enough public compliance for another lockdown.

Do it right this time.

GazzaL

Ramasun wrote: »

We can't reopen too early because there won't be enough public compliance for another lockdown.

Do it right this time.

The current lockdown with no plan and no end in sight isn't engendering public compliance.

Get the facking vaccines rolled out and get on with life.

There are loads of OAPs with flights to the Costa del Sol booked who are worried that they may not be allowed to travel.

dalyboy

Ramasun wrote: »

We can't reopen too early because there won't be enough public compliance for another lockdown.

Do it right this time.

Stay locked down to avoid another lock down .. bah haha