When will it all end?

Pcgamer

W123-80's wrote: »

My huge fear is that the vaccines will not be as efficacious as had originally been hoped for.
I have no real concerns over their general safety just the their efficacy.

I think the next thing we might start to see dripped into the media will be stories relating to vaccines needing to be redeveloped in order to deal with different strains etc.
For this reason I think we are in this for at least another 2 years.

This is all obviously based in nothing scientific just my own pessimistic opinion!

I think schools might open after Easter. That's a best case scenario. I suspect they will most likely remain closed until summer holidays.

I think hotels and gastro pubs will probably open in June under strict restrictions.

I don't think wet pubs will open in 2021.

I think level 3/4 type restrictions for the remainder of 2021 once we get out of this lockdown

Hopefully get beer gardens open in the Summer for wet pubs.

landofthetree

Micky 32 wrote: »

Lol, but sure who am i to question the boards experts, you must be correct. BTW if you’re going to post links maybe post more up to date links? Especially regarding vaccines. A lot has change since September regarding vaccines.

We will know pretty soon if it works.



Israel:

1.8 million vaccinated (~21% pop.)

~72% of all 60+ years old

~80% of all 70+ years old

This week we expect to see the effect of the vaccines, by a drop in the relative number of 60+ years old out of the critically ill patients. Our projection is the blue dashed line.


https://mobile.twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1348317646790524933

Hector Savage

daheff wrote: »

Younger people get sick and die from Covid too...it's not just old and frail that die from it.


In my view it'll be mid 22 before we get back to anything like the old normal.
I can see 21 being a lot of lockdowns gradually easing as we vaccinated more people. But until all countries are vaccinated we won't be out of this.

If it gets to a stage where we need annual boosters, well then we might see a number of flare ups for a few years across the globe until it burns out.

Nonsense post, yes young people get it and die but as a statistical impact on the health service it's barely there.
The whole idea of lockdowns is to protect the health service from collapsing - once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated health service won't get slammed.

If they distribute the vacciness efficiently (a big if) we could be out of the worst lockdowns from the summer ... pubs open to a limited capacity at least.

CalamariFritti

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

What are you basing your opinion on that wet pubs will never reopen ever again?

Kermit is kinda our pet Apocalypto. You have to take anything from him with a pinch of salt.

If this wasn't the internet/boards but the real world Kermit would be the guy who stands all by himself in a busy square stood on a soapbox with a large 'the end is nigh' placard in his hands.

wiggle16

Richard Hillman wrote: »

They'll still try and make you wear masks for flu season. I wouldn't be surprised if the pub time limit restrictions remained. Holohan ain't going away unless his book deal is spectacular. Although he probably won't be able to walk away from a role where he can control people.

I think this is very unfair to someone who is just doing his job. His job is not to be a yes-man or to tell people/the cabinet what they want to hear. Blaming him or making out that he has some sort of vendetta is very small minded tbh.

I think the end is in sight and by March we will be over the worst of it, can't see most restrictions going away until late summer. Some things are likely here to stay for quite some time, social distancing and masks etc but Id be optimistinc that another lockdown such as on the current scale won't be necessary once a significant portion of the more vulnerable population is vaccinated and that we should be able to have a normal christmas, all under the proviso that the vaccine supply is reliable.

Micky 32

landofthetree wrote: »

We will know pretty soon if it works.



Israel:

1.8 million vaccinated (~21% pop.)

~72% of all 60+ years old

~80% of all 70+ years old

This week we expect to see the effect of the vaccines, by a drop in the relative number of 60+ years old out of the critically ill patients. Our projection is the blue dashed line.


https://mobile.twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1348317646790524933

I would say a little longer for the results , i believe there could be up to 28 days for full effectiveness.

Sanjuro

Honestly, why give a **** about wearing masks in the future? I would happily take the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask sometimes over the major inconvenience of shutting down society at large.

CalamariFritti

Sanjuro wrote: »

Honestly, why give a **** about wearing masks in the future? I would happily take the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask sometimes over the major inconvenience of shutting down society at large.

I do and I wouldnt.

Sanjuro

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I do and I wouldnt.

So you'd rather shut everything down because you have to wear some cloth on your face?

Deeper Blue

Anyone that thinks things won't go back to normal are living in a fantasy world. The only things that I can realistically see staying are more people WFH and better hand hygiene.

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

What are you basing your opinion on that wet pubs will never reopen ever again?

You won't be getting a reply to that

wiggle16

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I do and I wouldnt.

It is literally just another garment. I don't see what's so objectionable about it. Wearing a mask in public is no different to having to wear a uniform or a shirt and slacks at work instead of a t-shirt and jeans, except that masks have a legitimate function. I will never understand this mindset.

Hector Savage

Sanjuro wrote: »

Honestly, why give a **** about wearing masks in the future? I would happily take the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask sometimes over the major inconvenience of shutting down society at large.

To an extent, on buses and trains, in shops etc sure ... but not on the street ...

John O.Groats

wiggle16 wrote: »

It is literally just another garment. I don't see what's so objectionable about it. Wearing a mask in public is no different to having to wear a uniform or a shirt and slacks at work instead of a t-shirt and jeans, except that masks have a legitimate function. I will never understand this mindset.

Some people do have a legitimate medical reason for not wearing a mask but there are many who object to wearing them as a way of giving two fingers to authority and a minority of tinfoil hat wearing loons who delusionally believe they are a form of control.

dirk_dangler

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

So this is what the big panic is all about?

I dare say you could replace Covid with Alcohol related incidents, and the numbers would be the same in the hospitals every Sunday morning.

The government has banned you travelling 5km from your house, but you can fly in to Ireland from anywhere the world and 54k did just that in the last 2 week of December.

The actions of the government don’t fit with what they are saying , remember the simple rule, People lie, numbers don’t.

The danger to the general public has been horrendously exaggerated.
Heads should roll, but we know they won’t.

ryanch09

dirk_dangler wrote: »

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

So this is what the big panic is all about?

I dare say you could replace Covid with Alcohol related incidents, and the numbers would be the same in the hospitals every Sunday morning.

The government has banned you travelling 5km from your house, but you can fly in to Ireland from anywhere the world and 54k did just that in the last 2 week of December.

The actions of the government don’t fit with what they are saying , remember the simple rule, People lie, numbers don’t.

The danger to the general public has been horrendously exaggerated.
Heads should roll, but we know they won’t.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/patients-treated-in-ambulances-as-letterkenny-hospital-faces-unprecedented-pressure-1.4454821?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fpatients-treated-in-ambulances-as-letterkenny-hospital-faces-unprecedented-pressure-1.4454821

wiggle16

John O.Groats wrote: »

Some people do have a legitimate medical reason for not wearing a mask but there are many who object to wearing them as a way of giving two fingers to authority and a minority of tinfoil hat wearing loons who delusionally believe they are a form of control.

Oh I get that there's people who can't wear them, obvs I've no problem with that.

But the latter two groups I will never be able to fathom. How anyone can be so self-absorbed that they think civic responsibility and basic consideration for other human beings shouldn't apply to them is beyond me.

Even if I believed that wearing masks was of no benefit I would wear one simply because I wouldn't want to make other people uncomfortable or uneasy around me - it's unfair to behave otherwise. There's enough f*cking anxiety and worry going around without people being dicks about something so inconsequential.

TLDR: agreed on all fronts!

bb1234567

dirk_dangler wrote: »

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

So this is what the big panic is all about?

I dare say you could replace Covid with Alcohol related incidents, and the numbers would be the same in the hospitals every Sunday morning.

The government has banned you travelling 5km from your house, but you can fly in to Ireland from anywhere the world and 54k did just that in the last 2 week of December.

The actions of the government don’t fit with what they are saying , remember the simple rule, People lie, numbers don’t.

The danger to the general public has been horrendously exaggerated.
Heads should roll, but we know they won’t.

Course not, because almost nobody agrees with your outlook on what's occurring. Heads will roll because of current high rate of hospitalisaton, if anything, exact opposite of what you probably hope heads should roll for.

Richard Hillman

Sanjuro wrote: »

Honestly, why give a **** about wearing masks in the future? I would happily take the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask sometimes over the major inconvenience of shutting down society at large.

In December I had to wear a mask for 2 hours commuting to and from work and then 8 hours a day in work. 10 hours a day with a mask on. No thanks.

John O.Groats

wiggle16 wrote: »

Oh I get that there's people who can't wear them, obvs I've no problem with that.

But the latter two groups I will never be able to fathom. How anyone can be so self-absorbed that they think civic responsibility and basic consideration for other human beings shouldn't apply to them is beyond me.

Even if I believed that wearing masks was of no benefit I would wear one simply because I wouldn't want to make other people uncomfortable or uneasy around me - it's unfair to behave otherwise. There's enough f*cking anxiety and worry going around without people being dicks about something so inconsequential.

TLDR: agreed on all fronts!

Unfortunately, and as much of the stuff that has been posted on this forum has demonstrated, there are many self entitled selfish me feiner pricks at large.

funnydoggy

Richard Hillman wrote: »

In December I had to wear a mask for 2 hours commuting to and from work and then 8 hours a day in work. 10 hours a day with a mask on. No thanks.

It's not great but I had to do similar and it wasn't too bad. Looking forward to when we don't need to wear them though

Richard Hillman

wiggle16 wrote: »

I think this is very unfair to someone who is just doing his job. His job is not to be a yes-man or to tell people/the cabinet what they want to hear. Blaming him or making out that he has some sort of vendetta is very small minded tbh.

I think the end is in sight and by March we will be over the worst of it, can't see most restrictions going away until late summer. Some things are likely here to stay for quite some time, social distancing and masks etc but Id be optimistinc that another lockdown such as on the current scale won't be necessary once a significant portion of the more vulnerable population is vaccinated and that we should be able to have a normal christmas, all under the proviso that the vaccine supply is reliable.

Yeah mate, and Gene Hackman in Unforgiven was just doing his job, protecting his town from bandits, enforcing local gun laws and preventing unsanctioned death warrants. Doesn't stop him from being the Villain in the whole thing though.

cgcsb

Prediction: Israel will complete vaccinations in the spring or early summer. The UK will complete by Autumn. Ireland and most of the EU will still have rolling lockdowns until December. Decision has to be made on vaccinating people who've already had it. At the moment there are more people getting it than are being vaccinated. At the present rate of infection half the population will have had it already by next year. Present infection rates will drop of course. The world of 2022 will be decades ahead of the world of 2019 in many ways.

Lots of interesting things to consider for the world going forward such as how many other diseases were completely wiped out by global lockdowns, masking and sanatisation. It seems superbugs like MRSA, an existential threat to our ability to produce antibiotics, has been wiped out. Influenza seems to have greatly diminished in global cases, it's ability to mutate has been greatly diminished. Wouldn't be surprised if influenza is wiped out completely this year or next. STI's particularly the transmission of HIV seems to have plummeted.

European cities got greener, lots more emphasis on pedestrian and cycling space.

A brand new world of mRNA based medicine. This vaccine was the ultimate proof of this new technology. The mRNA based medicine can be used to create any type of vaccine and can be used to fight cancer cells in the body with deadly accuracy, this may replace chemo as the go to cancer treatment and have a far higher success rate.

The WFH culture in the western world will lead to greater talk of the post-work world when automation makes more than half of jobs redundant. This was happening anyway but it was resisted by governments creating new manufactured and fruitless work, that might change. Manufactured work, including expansionist health and safety, gdpr, diversity etc., basically fell off the radar during WFH times, despite the fact that sitting on any old chair on front of your desk at home accessing confidential information and assuming your family's genders would have caused heart attacks before the crisis. This is a good thing, job satisfaction and personal fulfillment has plummeted since manufactured work took over in office based employment. A shorter working week will probably be introduced and there'll be greater flexibity, some time at home some time in a physical office. A desk for every staff member is gone.

Warmongering seems to have completely stopped. North Korea and the USA aren't having pissing contests anymore, Russia's grip over US and UK politics seems to have faded into obscurity. China may face internal pressure to ease up a bit. A fresh migration crisis might be on the way for Europe so there'll have to be some new talk about how we're dealing with that.

Alf Veedersane

dirk_dangler wrote: »

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

Jesus wept.

If 0.38% of the people in Kerry who contracted covid in the last 14 days end up in ICU, that's the 6 ICU beds full. If none of them are in use already.

Head for Mallow, Bantry or Limerick and see if they have any capacity.

Geography matters.

wiggle16

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Yeah mate, and Gene Hackman in Unforgiven was just doing his job, protecting his town from bandits, enforcing local gun laws and preventing unsanctioned death warrants. Doesn't stop him from being the Villain in the whole thing though.

What on Earth does that have to do with Tony Holohan?

deathbomber

dirk_dangler wrote: »

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

So this is what the big panic is all about?

I dare say you could replace Covid with Alcohol related incidents, and the numbers would be the same in the hospitals every Sunday morning.

The government has banned you travelling 5km from your house, but you can fly in to Ireland from anywhere the world and 54k did just that in the last 2 week of December.

The actions of the government don’t fit with what they are saying , remember the simple rule, People lie, numbers don’t.

The danger to the general public has been horrendously exaggerated.
Heads should roll, but we know they won’t.

What are you on about, the whole world is in the same situation with the exception of a few countries. This virus is dangerous, i had it my wife had it and we worked(she still does) in related fields. It's not nice !

John O.Groats

wiggle16 wrote: »

What on Earth does that have to do with Tony Holohan?

I imagine it`s related to this piece of rambling nonsense.

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I was watching Unforgiven yesterday and my thoughts was that nobody, absolutely nobody plays a Villain in a position of power like Gene Hackman. I can imagine (with dramatic licence of course) Gene Hackman walking into a dead pub in March 2020, staring the barkeep out of it and then doing a job on him with several pistol whips before flipping the closed sign around.

cgcsb

dirk_dangler wrote: »

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

You realise not every hospital has ICU? Without lockdown the numbers of people in hospital would be multiples of what it is.

dirk_dangler wrote: »

The danger to the general public has been horrendously exaggerated.
Heads should roll, but we know they won’t.

It really hasn't. The new UK strain has under 40 year olds on ventilators with lockdown measures in place.

elefant

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Yeah mate, and Gene Hackman in Unforgiven was just doing his job, protecting his town from bandits, enforcing local gun laws and preventing unsanctioned death warrants. Doesn't stop him from being the Villain in the whole thing though.

The Poseidon Adventure! Gene Hackman played a priest in it.

cgcsb

cgcsb wrote: »

.............. as how many other diseases were completely wiped out by global lockdowns, masking and sanatisation. It seems superbugs like MRSA, an existential threat to our ability to produce antibiotics, has been wiped out. Influenza seems to have greatly diminished in global cases, it's ability to mutate has been greatly diminished. Wouldn't be surprised if influenza is wiped out completely this year or next. STI's particularly the transmission of HIV seems to have plummeted. ...........

I hadn't heard anything about MRSA being wiped out.
Iirc smallpox is the only disease that has ever been wiped out. I'd not heard that covid actions had inadvertently done in a few

cgcsb

Augeo wrote: »

I hadn't heard anything about MRSA being wiped out.
Iirc smallpox is the only disease that has ever been wiped out. I'd not heard that covid actions had inadvertently done in a few

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/mrsa-bacteraemia-monthly-data-by-location-of-onset