When will it all end?

funnydoggy

August 29, 1997.

landofthetree

dirk_dangler wrote: »

It should end now!

The HSE website states there is 45 public hospitals in the country
From Irish times, there are 1,525 patients in hospital on Monday morning with Covid, so that is 34 per hospital.
The number of people in intensive care (ICU) is 128, so 2.8 per hospital.

So this is what the big panic is all about?

I dare say you could replace Covid with Alcohol related incidents, and the numbers would be the same in the hospitals every Sunday morning.

The government has banned you travelling 5km from your house, but you can fly in to Ireland from anywhere the world and 54k did just that in the last 2 week of December.

The actions of the government don’t fit with what they are saying , remember the simple rule, People lie, numbers don’t.

The danger to the general public has been horrendously exaggerated.
Heads should roll, but we know they won’t.

If we just opened up everything how many would need access to hospitals? 5,000? 10,000? 20,000?

cgcsb

cgcsb wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/mrsa-bacteraemia-monthly-data-by-location-of-onset

Potentially decent for the UK, is similar being seen worldwide?

carq

landofthetree wrote: »

If we just opened up everything how many would need access to hospitals? 5,000? 10,000? 20,000?

Interesting question.
If all 'vulnerable' people were vaccinated, what would be the expected no of hospitalisations/ICU / DEATH based on current rate for < 65 healthy population, presuming a monthly vaccination rate of 100000 per month. of this group.

BorneTobyWilde

Once vaccinated it will be normalized. No different than getting the flu, and I'm sure treatments will be over the counter, like the stuff Trump used. Took it and felt better within hours. Then recovered fast.
It will be self treat in the future, with very effective over the counter medicine.

helimachoptor

LordBasil wrote: »

I think the vaccine rollout will accelerate significantly both here and across Europe in the coming months, especially when the Oxford vaccine is approved and many of the current problems have been resolved. There will be growing pressure from the media, business groups and the public to get it going much more efficiently, this has already started to happen.

If I had to guess on the timescales for re-opening of Ireland;

Mid Feb: Schools and Construction.

March: Non-Essential retail, Golf, Tennis

April: Outdoor Dining, Gyms, Larger attendance at weddings and funerals.

May: Indoor dining.

June: Wet pubs, Theatres, Bingo Halls, Cinemas. Family gatherings.

July: Non-essential foreign travel allowed without having to isolate for 2 weeks if you have been vaccinated or get negative Covid test.

August: Work from home recommendations gradually lifted. Capacity limits on public transport increases.Crowds can attend sports events outdoors but not full capacity.

September: On campus attendance for 3rd students. All staff can return to offices. Conferences and exhibitions can take place.

October/ November: Most restrictions lifted as concerts can go ahead and nightclubs open. Full attendance at sporting events.

Christmas as normal. Hopefully....

a lot of people would take this.
And imo, its probably somewhere close to the truth assuming vaccinations happen at a good pace.

hello2020

cgcsb wrote: »

A brand new world of mRNA based medicine. This vaccine was the ultimate proof of this new technology. The mRNA based medicine can be used to create any type of vaccine and can be used to fight cancer cells in the body with deadly accuracy, this may replace chemo as the go to cancer treatment and have a far higher success rate.

The WFH culture in the western world will lead to greater talk of the post-work world when automation makes more than half of jobs redundant. This was happening anyway but it was resisted by governments creating new manufactured and fruitless work, that might change. Manufactured work, including expansionist health and safety, gdpr, diversity etc., basically fell off the radar during WFH times, despite the fact that sitting on any old chair on front of your desk at home accessing confidential information and assuming your family's genders would have caused heart attacks before the crisis. This is a good thing, job satisfaction and personal fulfillment has plummeted since manufactured work took over in office based employment. A shorter working week will probably be introduced and there'll be greater flexibity, some time at home some time in a physical office. A desk for every staff member is gone.

Warmongering seems to have completely stopped. North Korea and the USA aren't having pissing contests anymore, Russia's grip over US and UK politics seems to have faded into obscurity. China may face internal pressure to ease up a bit. A fresh migration crisis might be on the way for Europe so there'll have to be some new talk about how we're dealing with that.

very interesting predictions..

Alf Veedersane

LordBasil wrote: »

I think the vaccine rollout will accelerate significantly both here and across Europe in the coming months, especially when the Oxford vaccine is approved and many of the current problems have been resolved. There will be growing pressure from the media, business groups and the public to get it going much more efficiently, this has already started to happen.

If I had to guess on the timescales for re-opening of Ireland;

Mid Feb: Schools and Construction.

March: Non-Essential retail, Golf, Tennis

April: Outdoor Dining, Gyms, Larger attendance at weddings and funerals.

May: Indoor dining.

June: Wet pubs, Theatres, Bingo Halls, Cinemas. Family gatherings.

July: Non-essential foreign travel allowed without having to isolate for 2 weeks if you have been vaccinated or get negative Covid test.

August: Work from home recommendations gradually lifted. Capacity limits on public transport increases.Crowds can attend sports events outdoors but not full capacity.

September: On campus attendance for 3rd students. All staff can return to offices. Conferences and exhibitions can take place.

October/ November: Most restrictions lifted as concerts can go ahead and nightclubs open. Full attendance at sporting events.

Christmas as normal. Hopefully....

I would like to think that would be the case but I'm just not as hopeful on the vaccines. Donnelly said last week that we would have 470k doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of March. I know there are EU deals with 3 other vaccine manufacturers but I'm not entirely sure the supply timelines will be allow for that level of opening up in the first half of the year and that's even before you take into account the HSE's ability to rollout the vaccinations.

I really hope I'm wrong on all that though because you've laid out a much more palatable vista.

Mysteriouschic

I reckon 2022-2023 before it ends here since we aren't going for a zero covid route it's taking longer.Rolling lockdowns for a while and since they don't know for sure if the vaccine works against the new variant . People will continually be getting infected or some other new virus or strain will be found. Wish it would be sooner many places whos done the zero covid approach are back to normal lives already but they can't do that route here or even stop travel for a while.

victor8600

I think by July 2021 there will be enough people vaccinated to open pubs without much risk The virus will stay with us for years, but will become much less dangerous and more treatable.

Coybig_

There is really no reason for restrictions to continue by the time the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

We will already have extensive data at that point on vaccinations from other countries who are already massively ahead in vaccination programs.

We know that this virus is not a major problem for the majority of the population. As Leo Varadkar said on Today FM earlier, the vaccination of the vulnerable and of front line workers will cover people in a demographic from which 98 percent of deaths have come from.

There was also an acnowledgement that the virus is seasonal - shocker!

So as we approach summer, with a seasonal virus, with all vulnerable vaccinated, with a miniscule threat to other categories, just having emerged from a 3 month lockdown - that should be the last ever lockdown. Anything else is a p*sstake.

LordBasil

Alf Veedersane wrote: »

I would like to think that would be the case but I'm just not as hopeful on the vaccines. Donnelly said last week that we would have 470k doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of March. I know there are EU deals with 3 other vaccine manufacturers but I'm not entirely sure the supply timelines will be allow for that level of opening up in the first half of the year and that's even before you take into account the HSE's ability to rollout the vaccinations.

I really hope I'm wrong on all that though because you've laid out a much more palatable vista.

Yeah, hopefully vaccine rollout intensifies greatly soon. I don't know how much more of these restrictions people can take.

Also I think government may introduce vaccinations earlier for non-vulnerable groups eg. Young People earlier in certain regions of the country which are Covid Hotspots (Border Counties, Dublin, Limerick) in order to bring national case rate down.

mcburns07

Mysteriouschic wrote: »

I reckon 2022-2023 before it ends here since we aren't going for a zero covid route it's taking longer.Rolling lockdowns for a while and since they don't know for sure if the vaccine works against the new variant . People will continually be getting infected or some other new virus or strain will be found. Wish it would be sooner many places whos done the zero covid approach are back to normal lives already but they can't do that route here or even stop travel for a while.

Normal lives yes but they can't leave their own country without quarantining for 14 days when they come. Australia and NZ have done well, but life won't be normal for them as long as it's rampant everywhere else in the world.

Geuze

cgcsb wrote: »

The WFH culture in the western world will lead to greater talk of the post-work world when automation makes more than half of jobs redundant.

Off-topic, but I don't see this happening.

In manufacturing, yes, automation may lead to less employment overall.

Taking the year 2019, we have never had as much automation.

And yet employment was high, and there were labour shortages.



Another example, with all this automation, we still don't have enough ICT in healthcare / law, etc.

I welcome further automation, that drives productivity higher, as this means real wages will rise.


But there will still be labour shortages.

Alf Veedersane

LordBasil wrote: »

Yeah, hopefully vaccine rollout intensifies greatly soon. I don't know how much more of these restrictions people can take.

Also I think government may introduce vaccinations earlier for non-vulnerable groups eg. Young People earlier in certain regions of the country which are Covid Hotspots (Border Counties, Dublin, Limerick) in order to bring national case rate down.

I think they have laid out their priority list and will probably stick to it. I'm not convinced they're able to be proactive, in a sensible way, on the fly.

It would really help of they were a bit more transparent on what they hoped to do and include caveats for when they expect to be in receipt of the vaccines and to what degree.

Pfizer said that they would fulfil the delivery of the 200 million doses to the EU by September 2021.

I'm not sure how long more it will be before the EMA approves the Oxford/AZ vaccine but they have indicated it will be February before they approve, assuming they do.

GSK won't be here until the second half of the year and I'm not sure about J&J.

But you would hope there is enough to vaccinate the most vulnerable by end of April. Just basing this on there being ca. 190k people over 70 in the country and another 220k ish that are 65-69.

They may be slow to open up too quickly as about half of those in ICU and hospital in the last 2 weeks are under 65. A good proportion of those will likely have certain medical conditions but they are further down the list. So when you factor in all the people ahead of them, they will be likely vaccinated in Q2 but until then will likely be a potential risk.

So I would think the actual timeline might be maybe 2 months slower than yours but again that's through the prism of expecting the worst and hoping for the best.

Utopia Parkway

The free money (not that it's actually free) will not last indefinitely so once hospitalisations and ICU numbers begin to decrease to acceptable levels there will be a big push to get people back to relative normal and get them back working, earning and spending. That said I would expect some sort of restrictions in place for the rest of the year as no doubt they will make a hames of the vaccine roll out and it will drag on until the end of the year.

cgcsb

funnydoggy wrote: »

August 29, 1997.

This post has been shamefully overlooked by most

begbysback

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Once vaccinated it will be normalized. No different than getting the flu, and I'm sure treatments will be over the counter, like the stuff Trump used. Took it and felt better within hours. Then recovered fast.
It will be self treat in the future, with very effective over the counter medicine.

You can’t compare us mortals to The Donald, as soon as covid realised where it was it got ta fcuk outta there, nothing to do with treatment.

j@utis

Birdie086 wrote: »

I wonder what we will be arguing, on the internet, about when all this is finally over

Economic crash! Oh, I can't wait for that one. I bet you the pro-lockdowners will be the loudest ones again

mcburns07 wrote: »

In fairness this has been on the cards for years, Covid will just speed it up. Apart from jobs, big retail chains taking up units in town centres and cities is no loss, these should be full of sustainable small local retailers, cafes and restaurants, and people should be able to live affordably in city centres if they choose, not commuting hours in cars every day.

The big retailers are the ones that are making most of out it during lockdowns (with some exceptions), while small businesses are swept under at the alarming rate. How any of them small ones will try again after being pi$$ taken out of them for this long?

John O.Groats

begbysback wrote: »

You can’t compare us mortals to The Donald, as soon as covid realised where it was it got ta fcuk outta there, nothing to do with treatment.

Indeed. I think this might be the first recorded case in medical history of a human infecting a virus.

cgcsb

Geuze wrote: »

Off-topic, but I don't see this happening.

In manufacturing, yes, automation may lead to less employment overall.

Taking the year 2019, we have never had as much automation.

And yet employment was high, and there were labour shortages.



Another example, with all this automation, we still don't have enough ICT in healthcare / law, etc.

I welcome further automation, that drives productivity higher, as this means real wages will rise.


But there will still be labour shortages.

I'm not saying we'll have a post-work world in the next 2 years or even in the next 20 but the thing is it won't happen overnight. The average working week in the western world declined gradually from about 80 hours in 1980 to about 38 hours in 2020. I'd expect this gradual decline to continue, 30 hour weeks could be normal in Europe by 2030 especially when you consider the prolonging of retirement age.

You're right we have more employment than ever but with less and less productive and fulfilling work. In the past 10 years alone office based employees have seen their time increasingly consumed by new unproductive 'processes'.

I see you mention law, this is an area where governments can easily create all sorts of unproductive work with complex processess and procedures.

The point is it'll be something we talk about more post-covid rather than ignore.

hello2020

cgcsb wrote: »

I'm not saying we'll have a post-work world in the next 2 years or even in the next 20 but the thing is it won't happen overnight. The average working week in the western world declined gradually from about 80 hours in 1980 to about 38 hours in 2020. I'd expect this gradual decline to continue, 30 hour weeks could be normal in Europe by 2030 especially when you consider the prolonging of retirement age.

You're right we have more employment than ever but with less and less productive and fulfilling work. In the past 10 years alone office based employees have seen their time increasingly consumed by new unproductive 'processes'.

I see you mention law, this is an area where governments can easily create all sorts of unproductive work with complex processess and procedures.

The point is it'll be something we talk about more post-covid rather than ignore.

may be its the beginning of Asian century as giant Asian countries (China/India/South Korea/Japan etc) are back to work while west is still in lock down ?

BigMo1

I can see a lot of pressure coming on global governments to fully open up economies once vulnerable groups are vaccinated. If for example by the end of March, Ireland has over 90% of vulnerable folks vaccinated, deaths will be basically eradicated and I think there will be clamour from the public and lobby groups to significantly ease restrictions quite soon after that.

niallo27

Older people will continue to die in nursing homes and other settings that have COVID at the time of death, how do we deal with these people. Will they still be counted as COVID deaths. Genuine question, I'm not trying to wind anyone up with the dieing with COVID thing. the vaccine does not stop them getting COVID.

Alf Veedersane

niallo27 wrote: »

Older people will continue to die in nursing homes and other settings that have COVID at the time of death, how do we deal with these people. Will they still be counted as COVID deaths. Genuine question, I'm not trying to wind anyone up with the dieing with COVID thing. the vaccine does not stop them getting COVID.

If Covid-19 isn't deemed to be part of the chain events that ultimately caused death, then it shouldn't be recorded as a covid death even if they have tested positive, as per WHO guidance on classification of deaths.

It's only supposed to be included if it has played a role in the chain of events that caused death.

doublejobbing 2

14 million UK residents targeted to receive at least one dose by mid February. More than one fifth of their population, surely all but covering all their vulnerable, plus some.

In an Irish context that would be about 1 million people in the republic.

Our current target for late February is 135,000. Now, we may be suffering from FG FF setting a deliberately low bar so they look the dogs bollix when they exceed this, and Boris might be playing Billy Big Bollix with his target, but even if those two pan out it looks like our per capita figure will be a joke compared to theirs.

Anyone who thought Brexit was a bad idea might want to rethink that.

BigMo1

doublejobbing 2 wrote: »

14 million UK residents targeted to receive at least one dose by mid February. More than one fifth of their population, surely all but covering all their vulnerable, plus some.

In an Irish context that would be about 1 million people in the republic.

Our current target for late February is 135,000. Now, we may be suffering from FG FF setting a deliberately low bar so they look the dogs bollix when they exceed this, and Boris might be playing Billy Big Bollix with his target, but even if those two pan out it looks like our per capita figure will be a joke compared to theirs.

Anyone who thought Brexit was a bad idea might want to rethink that.

By any objective measure, yes Brexit was a comically bad idea.

If we were out on our own, I personally wouldn't have any confidence at all in the Irish government managing the entire process effectively.

wiggle16

doublejobbing 2 wrote: »

Our current target for late February is 135,000. Now, we may be suffering from FG FF setting a deliberately low bar so they look the dogs bollix when they exceed this, and Boris might be playing Billy Big Bollix with his target, but even if those two pan out it looks like our per capita figure will be a joke compared to theirs.

I would say this is almost certainly the case on both counts.

doublejobbing 2 wrote: »

Anyone who thought Brexit was a bad idea might want to rethink that.

The UK roll out happening quicker is not because of Brexit.

1) the NHS is a far more bloated organisation than even the HSE - they have a lot of people to put to work with their roll-out and they have done.

2) the UK minster for health (whose name escapes me) said at the time that they approved the vaccine in December, earlier than the EU, because of Brexit and being able to do so was because they were free of EU laws.

This was an outright lie because the legislation under which they approved the vaccine for use is EU legislation which allows a country to approve a vaccination program in an emergency without following proper dilligence. the UK does not currently have its own corresponding legislation. It is EU legislation and their roll-out was perfectly acceptable under EU rules.

The EU took the position that all countries should wait until the EMA had approved the vaccine - no country was legally compelled to wait, but all chose to wait for the EMA's decision as they clearly deemed it prudent to do so. Any of them could have done what the UK did. They decided not to take the risk of rolling out without oversight like the UK did - which was purely for political reasons, as the health minister laid bare by lying about it.

The UK's roll-out has nothing in the slightest to do with Brexit. At all.

carq

doublejobbing 2 wrote: »

14 million UK residents targeted to receive at least one dose by mid February. More than one fifth of their population, surely all but covering all their vulnerable, plus some.

In an Irish context that would be about 1 million people in the republic.

Our current target for late February is 135,000. Now, we may be suffering from FG FF setting a deliberately low bar so they look the dogs bollix when they exceed this, and Boris might be playing Billy Big Bollix with his target, but even if those two pan out it looks like our per capita figure will be a joke compared to theirs.

Anyone who thought Brexit was a bad idea might want to rethink that.

The UK did have a 3 week headstart so you have to factor that in.
Even so i expect them to far exceed Ireland when it comes to Vaccines.
Drafting in the Army and pharmacies is the right way to go about it.

PTH2009

With todays news of us been number 1 on the infection rates list I think the egos of NPHET/Dr Tony/Leo and MM will be badly hurt they will want further lockdowns now