When will it all end?

ShineOn7

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

Well unlike you, he's an expert, so thankfully not many people will listen to your childish rants.

All he's an expert in is self publicity

El_Duderino 09

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Do you not see how that is illogical though? If we do achieve critical mass vaccination by September, then why do we have to worry about a fourth wave in the Winter and therefore kick mass gatherings further down the road? That's the part that makes no sense.

No, it’s not a contradiction. He left in load of caveats. IF they reach the target by September then things MIGHT be great. He said winter is a concern and I think it’s pretty obvious why it’s a concern.

I think the September target will most likely not be achieved, but it’s still government policy so he has to talk about it as if it’s likely to be met. It’s true to say they are aiming to meet the target though. Government aims to achieve every target they set but how many projects come in on time and on budget?

I know people don’t tend to read the actual things they say in these statements, they tend to only read the parts they want to read. That was a crafted statement, it wasn’t supposed to be interpreted with all the caveats ignored. I think the September target is unlikely. But if they hit it, then who knows?The winter might be pretty close to normal.

El_Duderino 09

d161 wrote: »

So, I offered to send you my yellow book.



The International Certificate of Vaccination or Prophylaxis (ICVP), also known as the Carte Jaune or Yellow Card, is an official vaccination record created by the World Health Organization (WHO). It was a book not a card btw.

All the fuss over vaccine passports. It's hardly a new idea. Perhaps yellow books are out of date now? I thought you would be au fait with them.


Sorry I thought you did, maybe it was somebody else. Some believe this is possible.

Incidentally, are you not concerned about mutations and the need for new vaccines for these mutations?


That's my problem. You can only consider one approach/solution. Lockdown or vaccine. NPHET are the same.

They, NPHET, have pursued a goal of very low COVID numbers with no consideration what so ever of the social cost.
Why not consider, pareto's principle, i.e. 80% of the result for 20% of the effort. So, try to keep numbers down eg below 1000 a day using less restrictions.

I understand what exponential growth is and I understand there is a time lag in restrictions having an affect. But they said 50 hospitalizations per 1000 infected and we had 100K cases in January but less that 2,000 in hospital.



I understand the reasons for the government wanting the whole population vaccinated but I'm not inclined to pull on the green jersey on this one. The government and NPHET with their disregard for the people lost me a long time ago. Certainly I'll not be giving my kids this vaccine for at least another year or two.

I’m not sure if you’re responding to the things I posted. Yellow books and eradication the virus, am I worried about new virus mutations and only 2 solutions (lockdown or vaccines). I’ve absolutely no idea where you’re getting half of this from because they’re nothing to do with the things I’ve mentioned.

What I have said is that the more people who don’t get vaccinated, the more transmissions there will be. And given that transmissions is a pretty obvious criteria for loosening restrictions, higher transmissions will likely result in longer before restrictions are loosened.
You get that, right?

Pat D. Almighty

ShineOn7 wrote: »

All he's an expert in is self publicity

No, you just said that to make yourself feel better.

Grow up

ninebeanrows

I fear it won’t really end properly until April 2022

Until then we will fear giving our mom a hug

accensi0n

Lundstram wrote: »

Great positivity coming from the UK.. Their exit lockdown plan is clear and concise.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0215/1197328-johnson-lockdown-england/

You're talking shiite.

Dr. Bre

ninebeanrows wrote: »

I fear it won’t really end properly until April 2022

Until then we will fear giving our mom a hug

Why April 2022? Very specific

hynesie08

accensi0n wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2021/0215/1197328-johnson-lockdown-england/

You're talking shiite.

Tomorrow is pancake Tuesday, he's just trying to add a new day.

Waffling Monday.

Parachutes

hopefully this lockdown will be our last means it definitely won't be the last in politician speak.

ShineOn7

Andrewf20 wrote: »

I dragged and dropped the section of the graph on case numbers from mid April last year onwards onto our current downward trend. The 2 slopes pretty much line up and if the curve continues like last year we should down to around 100 cases a day by mid March. By mid April, the numbers could be in the teens or 20s. Back then there was the 2km rule but at least now we have some vaccine.

Mid April last year was at around 700-800 cases per day like now. I am of course assuming testing levels are similar.

Sounds promising and I really hope you're right

But this is a completely different strain we have now. Can comparisons really be made between Wave 1 and Wave 3?

josip

Andrewf20 wrote: »

I dragged and dropped the section of the graph on case numbers from mid April last year onwards onto our current downward trend. The 2 slopes pretty much line up and if the curve continues like last year we should down to around 100 cases a day by mid March. By mid April, the numbers could be in the teens or 20s. Back then there was the 2km rule but at least now we have some vaccine.

Mid April last year was at around 700-800 cases per day like now. I am of course assuming testing levels are similar.

I also hope you're right but the 7 day average looks like it's flattening out to me, or at best very shallow.
859 today vs 978 a week ago.
I think they've 'lost the dressing room' and we're unlikely to get below 400 cases let alone 100.

hatrickpatrick

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

No, it’s not a contradiction. He left in load of caveats. IF they reach the target by September then things MIGHT be great. He said winter is a concern and I think it’s pretty obvious why it’s a concern.

I think the September target will most likely not be achieved, but it’s still government policy so he has to talk about it as if it’s likely to be met. It’s true to say they are aiming to meet the target though. Government aims to achieve every target they set but how many projects come in on time and on budget?

I know people don’t tend to read the actual things they say in these statements, they tend to only read the parts they want to read. That was a crafted statement, it wasn’t supposed to be interpreted with all the caveats ignored. I think the September target is unlikely. But if they hit it, then who knows?The winter might be pretty close to normal.

If they hit it, then why would we need to continue observing social distancing? That's literally all I'm asking. Mass vaccination should mean that it's safe to mingle with groups of people again. If it doesn't, if mass vaccination isn't good enough to allow people to do this, then what is?

That's all I've been asking in these posts. Literally that's all. I'm asking what possible logic there is in saying that once we have a high enough vaccination rate to achieve critical mass / herd immunity, we still have to stay away from crowds? Either the vaccine works, or it doesn't. And again, if the vaccine isn't a good enough solution to re-enable us to engage with large groups of people, then what is? What will be that line in the sand, if not mass vaccination?

manofwisdom

Andrewf20 wrote: »

I dragged and dropped the section of the graph on case numbers from mid April last year onwards onto our current downward trend. The 2 slopes pretty much line up and if the curve continues like last year we should down to around 100 cases a day by mid March. By mid April, the numbers could be in the teens or 20s. Back then there was the 2km rule but at least now we have some vaccine.

Mid April last year was at around 700-800 cases per day like now. I am of course assuming testing levels are similar.

We are testing a lot more now than back then. Wave 2 in October is better to look at and draw comparisons with.

For example October 28th the 7 day average in cases was 866 and by the 28th of November it was 264 cases per day.

So based on that I think by mid March we'll have 250 to 300 weekly case.

ujjjjjjjjj

hynesie08 wrote: »

Tomorrow is pancake Tuesday, he's just trying to add a new day.

Waffling Monday.

I know it's hard to say this for many on here but the UK are doing a good job with the vaccination roleout and are going to be out of this mess relatively soon.

This can only be good news for Ireland so I welcome their success here.

And yes they have made many mistakes with hospital spread and not keeping it out of nursing homes etc etc but they are getting this right and I will say it again, it can only be good news for Ireland so can we not just welcome it ?

hynesie08

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

I know it's hard to say this for many on here but the UK are doing a good job with the vaccination roleout and are going to be out of this mess relatively soon.

This can only be good news for Ireland so I welcome their success here.

And yes they have made many mistakes with hospital spread and not keeping it out of nursing homes etc etc but they are getting this right and I will say it again, it can only be good news for Ireland so can we not just welcome it ?

I have openly said that I hope the uk smash the vaccine rollout, that's not the issue.

The poster being quoted claimed they had "a clear and concise" exit strategy...... That's just a lie.

ujjjjjjjjj

hynesie08 wrote: »

I have openly said that I hope the uk smash the vaccine rollout, that's not the issue.

The poster being quoted claimed they had "a clear and concise" exit strategy...... That's just a lie.

Fair enough, apologies. I think clear and concise is pushing it alright !! But there is a definite shift in messaging in the UK and looks like next week Boris will have a defined set of reopening dates for a phased return.

Can only help keep things ticking along on this side of the pond.......

Always_Running

josip wrote: »

I also hope you're right but the 7 day average looks like it's flattening out to me, or at best very shallow.
859 today vs 978 a week ago.
I think they've 'lost the dressing room' and we're unlikely to get below 400 cases let alone 100.

Nothing shallow about 1000 less weekly cases with close contacts added in recently. If we continue that progress it will be under 400 in a matter of weeks.


You don't get down to current daily average from 5000 cases a day a month ago if the "dressing room" was lost.

ujjjjjjjjj

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Fair enough, apologies. I think clear and concise is pushing it alright !! But there is a definite shift in messaging in the UK and looks like next week Boris will have a defined set of reopening dates for a phased return.

Can only help keep things ticking along on this side of the pond.......

Though all his Governments scientists want to keep social distancing measures for the forseeable future.

the kelt

yer man! wrote: »

Here in The Netherlands we have a lockdown similar to Ireland except no 5km limit but we do have a 9pm curfew, I have to say it's the only thing keeping me sane at the minute. I can drive to the beach and go for a walk or go to any trail or forest that I like as long as I am back home by 9pm. Our case numbers are roughly in line with Ireland at the minute taking into account population size. I had a video chat with my family this weekend in Ireland and it nearly broke my heart, genuine sadness and despair. My parents are the most frustrated, but just said if the 5km limit was eased a bit it would do a world of good, they used to go for walks in parks 15 - 20 km away and have a picnic or go off for a drive around the countryside. I really hope at least that restriction is eased, it would make a massive difference.

It’s amazing how people on this thread actually think we don’t have a curfew here and other countries having a curfew means they have it so much harder than us etc etc.

A time curfew versus a distance restriction, your still restricted in your movements and yes even with these restrictions parts of Europe are getting back to some level of normality quicker than we are despite the fact we are vaccinating at the same rate.

It’s like we are addicted to the misery in this country, no semblance of positivity, day after day after day, hell people didn’t even think it was appropriate to be asking questions as to how many were being vaccinated and have a daily update as to how that was going, ye know a bit of positivity maybe, couldn’t be having that!

As I said in a previous post, when will it end, well it will be ended in practically every other country in the world , definitely in Europe, probably for quite a while before it ends here that’s for sure and we all know it.

plodder

I'd certainly take a 9pm curfew over the 5km restriction we have. I think it would be easier to police as well.

Ginger n Lemon

Another day with absolutely fantastic weather on our hands.

UK are looking to vaccinate all over 50s by early April.

Fans will be back for Caraboa cup and FA cup finals.

Austria lifting lockdown, Italy lifting lockdown, bloody Spanish people have had all their gyms shops bars restaurants open for weeks now.

And I hear Ronan G can do nothing but predict doom and gloom. What a sad state of affairs. Get them "experts" in the bin.

giveitholly

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Another day with absolutely fantastic weather on our hands.

UK are looking to vaccinate all over 50s by early April.

Fans will be back for Caraboa cup and FA cup finals.

Austria lifting lockdown, Italy lifting lockdown, bloody Spanish people have had all their gyms shops bars restaurants open for weeks now.

And I hear Ronan G can do nothing but predict doom and gloom. What a sad state of affairs. Get them "experts" in the bin.

And Paschal Donohue on the radio stating he is unsure if people will be able to take staycations this summer. Last year everyone could go on them but with vaccinations this year it seems they are in doubt. You couldn't make it up

Ginger n Lemon

giveitholly wrote: »

And Paschal Donohue on the radio stating he is unsure if people will be able to take staycations this summer. Last year everyone could go on them but with vaccinations this year it seems they are in doubt. You couldn't make it up

I thought Paschal wudve resigned a long time ago. 20% + average unemployment for 11 months now. National debt sky high. Record number of bankruptcies of SMEs.

But I suppose he has better things to do such as go on radio talks :pac::mad:

BTownB

plodder wrote: »

I'd certainly take a 9pm curfew over the 5km restriction we have. I think it would be easier to police as well.

Couldn't agree more. Curfew is much better than the 5k nonsense.

Andrewf20

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Sounds promising and I really hope you're right

But this is a completely different strain we have now. Can comparisons really be made between Wave 1 and Wave 3?

There are lots of variables that will provide inputs to the data that will favour numbers dropping this year vs last April, but other factors wont help like different virus strains but ultimately the output (i.e. the cases graph so far) still looks very similar to April 2020.

The heavy approach by the government (prolonged level 5) may be an attempt to drive down numbers at a time when they know people are sick to death of this situation and are more likely to flout the rules.

Andrewf20

josip wrote: »

I also hope you're right but the 7 day average looks like it's flattening out to me, or at best very shallow.
859 today vs 978 a week ago.
I think they've 'lost the dressing room' and we're unlikely to get below 400 cases let alone 100.

Lets hope the warmer weather that is coming will help drive the downward trend.

BTownB

Speaking of curfew, this is interesting...

https://twitter.com/annaholligan/status/1361611951986606080

Ginger n Lemon

BTownB wrote: »

Speaking of curfew, this is interesting...

https://twitter.com/annaholligan/status/1361611951986606080

Fantastic news. We need more of this to recover from doom mongering Ronan G inflicted last night

AdamD

Things are seriously bleak when people are wishing for curfews.

BTownB wrote: »

Speaking of curfew, this is interesting...

https://twitter.com/annaholligan/status/1361611951986606080

Good to see

Ginger n Lemon

AdamD wrote: »

Things are seriously bleak when people are wishing for curfews.



Good to see

In a way yeah, but like in Spain curfews means open businesses albeit until 7 or 8 PM. If this was the proposal I'd bite your hand off :pac: