When will it all end?

Aph2016

When we start seeing the UK remove restrictions and get back to normal, I will enjoy watching the government squirm as the pressure mounts and the public demand restrictions are reduced.

GazzaL

accensi0n wrote: »

Really? 100% of people are still wearing masks in my local Dunne's.

I wasn't in Dunnes

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If only the world were so black/white. It's not a case that the vaccine is either 100% effective and 100% of people get the vaccine or else the vaccine is 0% effective and 0% uptake. The reality is likely to be that the vaccine is 90ish% effective and uptake is yet to be seen.

e.g. if 80% of the adult population get the vaccine by the time the weather gets cold towards the end of the year, then the calculation is something like the following.
80% of the adult population get a vaccine which is 90% effective =80%*80%*.90% = 58% immunity. So starting from that base at the start of the cold season would mean they could carry on continue to vaccinate more people into the winter.

That's a huge improvement on last year and would mean we could have much more contact and ewer restricti0ons next winter. And that's good. It's not a fairy tale, magic potion. But it's a realistic likely outcome.

Any particular reason for squaring the 80%? Sure why not cube it?

Anyway, assuming the 80% and 90% are accurate, that gives 72% will be immune. Exposure will also be much, much lower as the wider population also carry less viral load around.

dalyboy

Aph2016 wrote: »

When we start seeing the UK remove restrictions and get back to normal, I will enjoy watching the government squirm as the pressure mounts and the public demand restrictions are reduced.

Exactly
There’ll zero support for restrictions come May/June.

All that’ll be left will be a few sociopathic nut jobs nodding away to their new found medical leaders while the rest of us move back to our normality

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any particular reason for squaring the 80%? Sure why not cube it?

Anyway, assuming the 80% and 90% are accurate, that gives 72% will be immune. Exposure will also be much, much lower as the wider population also carry less viral load around.

I was referring to the adult population, which is about 80% of the population as a whole. Do you understand now?

Just for reference, the vaccine won’t be approved and ready to give to children until late in the year. So we can be pretty sure they won’t be vaccinated by the September deadline, wouldn’t you agree? So that means to get to 80% of the total population vaccinated by September, they plan to vaccinate 100% of the adult population. So they are highly unlikely to meet the 80% target. Wouldn’t you agree?

Pat D. Almighty

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ah ok.. you are on a wind up, best of luck!!

I'm not, you just didn't like the answer you got.

Gestureapo

dalyboy wrote: »

Exactly
There’ll zero support for restrictions come May/June.

All that’ll be left will be a few sociopathic nut jobs nodding away to their new found medical leaders while the rest of us move back to our normality

I wouldn't like to be depending on our lot

Like you said what happens elsewhere will effect change here

gozunda

GazzaL wrote: »

There are huge numbers of people who are ignoring restrictions at this stage. Any slight doubts I had about full normality resuming (e.g. the continued wearing of face masks) were quashed today by what I encountered.

As I said before, there are two parallel worlds in Ireland at the moment. If you think everyone is sat at home twidling their thumbs, think again.

Erm not quite sure what your saying there tbh. Is it that because there are some eejits ignoring restrictions at a time when infection rates were at an all time here - that you're going to do the same or ... ?

Doctor Jimbob

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

and this time they'll be even lower Learning is fun.

They won't be much lower than last summer unless we put everyone in bubbles and nail us all into our homes.

I'm all for restrictions when they're needed as they are at the moment with high numbers. If we end up stuck in level 4/5 with numbers like last summer I'll be paying no heed whatsoever to most of the restrictions.

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They won't be much lower than last summer unless we put everyone in bubbles and nail us all into our homes.

I'm all for restrictions when they're needed as they are at the moment with high numbers. If we end up stuck in level 4/5 with numbers like last summer I'll be paying no heed whatsoever to most of the restrictions.

Selfish idiot

Doctor Jimbob

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

Selfish idiot

Anything to contribute beyond one line insults?

mmclo

glasso wrote: »

Here's an article from the economist on the slightly beyond near-term situation re the virus, vaccines and Covid.


Covid-19 may become endemic. Governments need to start thinking about how to cope

Bah, The Economist with their calm, well researched, rational perspective, I just talk to Joe!

SnuggyBear

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

Selfish idiot

You want people locked away when the cases are on the floor? What kind of madness is that.

saabsaab

dalyboy wrote: »

Exactly
There’ll zero support for restrictions come May/June.

All that’ll be left will be a few sociopathic nut jobs nodding away to their new found medical leaders while the rest of us move back to our normality

Quote from you a few months ago


'I just wonder , if there’s no significant deaths number increases by the end of August will people (even the sheep) start to ask “is this over”.

The government at this stage will be clutching at straws as it will be a clear casedemic (ref mr Cummins) NOT pandemic.

I always remember the end of the wizard of oz . ‘Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain” ....... the great government has spoken (and is a clown show)'


You were wrong then only now there are vaccines ( that you didn't believe in coming so soon)

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Anything to contribute beyond one line insults?

In this case? No, I think I summed by feelings up within the one line insult.

Pat D. Almighty

SnuggyBear wrote: »

You want people locked away when the cases are on the floor? What kind of madness is that.

Its the "kind of madness" that has worked to slow the spread in other countries. Why not give it a try?

Doctor Jimbob

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

Its the "kind of madness" that has worked to slow the spread in other countries. Why not give it a try?

Which countries have kept restrictions with low numbers?

markodaly

gansi wrote: »

Is that the same college that employed that guyfreguson that got all the modeling data wrong on predicted numbers and on top of that got caught with his trousers down breaking lockdown. Here’s hoping they're employing more credible people now!

What college did you and josip and everyone else go to, to study this in detail?

The college of boards.ie? :pac:

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Which countries have kept restrictions with low numbers?

New Zealand is one example. Certain parts of Australia too.

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

I haven't watched the video, but you do realise that "experts" in many fields have been completely wrong innumerable times throughout history? This is not an argument as to why josip is wrong (or right - he may well be full of it, as I said this is a general comment), it's a logical fallacy called "appeal to authority".

Also mathematicians of any sort have a tendency to model ideal conditions and forget about practical human considerations .... for example, everyone is immediately infected, no one has past immunity and the illness progresses exactly the same way in everyone, none of which is true. One of the big criticisms of the Imperial model was that they had no biologists on their team, only physical scientists. Biology is far more messy than physical science.

The need to "appeal to the common man" is also a fallacy.
It is fine to disagree with a scientist, but you must do so using something along the lines of peer-reviewed research or similar. Not one person has done this, not ONE. Instead, we have had comments about her colleague, the college itself, an earlier model, she may or may not have worked on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_probability

Just sayin, "Nah, I think she is wrong" from some gut feeling is just flat earther syndrome.

Doctor Jimbob

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

New Zealand is one example. Certain parts of Australia too.

They've had strong restrictions on travel while keeping most of the country open when numbers are low. Nothing at all like the extended level 5 we seem to be aiming for.

I'd be completely in favour of trying to go down the AUS/NZ route but there doesn't seem to be any appetite for it here.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I was referring to the adult population, which is about 80% of the population as a whole. Do you understand now?

Just for reference, the vaccine won’t be approved and ready to give to children until late in the year. So we can be pretty sure they won’t be vaccinated by the September deadline, wouldn’t you agree? So that means to get to 80% of the total population vaccinated by September, they plan to vaccinate 100% of the adult population. So they are highly unlikely to meet the 80% target. Wouldn’t you agree?

Ah right so you were pulling numbers out of your arse. Got ya loud and clear.

Though why you go between adult and total population is strange, but not separate the elderly, almost like it's to suit your point.
For a disease which has basically no effect on children I think we can worry about vaccinating them once everyone else who wants to be sorted has been sorted.

Once we're in a position that we have a choice between another 3+ years naively trying to get to 0 cases ("under control" :rolleyes: ) or move on with a couple hundred deaths a year among people who've already lived well past median life expectancy then good luck to any government trying to choose the former.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah right so you were pulling numbers out of your arse. Got ya loud and clear.

Though why you go between adult and total population is strange, but not separate the elderly, almost like it's to suit your point.
For a disease which has basically no effect on children I think we can worry about vaccinating them once everyone else who wants to be sorted has been sorted.

Once we're in a position that we have a choice between another 3+ years naively trying to get to 0 cases ("under control" :rolleyes: ) or move on with a couple hundred deaths a year among people who've already lived well past median life expectancy then good luck to any government trying to choose the former.

Lol. No.

Do you really not get it or just don’t want to acknowledge that you didn’t get it first time around?

I “go between” total population and adult population for a good reason. And that reason is that they’re the terms that government uses when they talk
about vaccination. Sometime they say total population and sometimes they say adult population.

Do you know the difference between total population and adult population? And do you know what it means in reference to the government September target?

beggars_bush

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Just stumbled upon this thread. Which is great!

Thank you to whoever started it and particularly to people who shared their experiences over the last few pages.

I WFH. I have a safe job. I am in a relationship.

Yet I absolutely hate my life. Absolutely nothing to do, at all. No end in sight. Last year we had summer to look forward to to travel, then we had xmas to look forward to. I spend 90% + in my home every week..

What have we got to look forward to this year?? getting 50-100 eur PCR tests per person prior to departure and then another 1 prior to arriving back? (hoping they are negative throughout)

As many here have posted already - we are not living.

Also am I the only 1 who finds Gardai at the airport asking citizens where they are going and whether their travel is essential absolutely bizarre? Are we actually being fined for leaving our country and or returning back? Speechless stuff.

I look forward to every day at home with the family
We go for walks, cycles, have fun around the house
We cook new meals, try out new recipes, teach the kids new skills
I've never got to spend so much time with them, its great in that way
And we WFH

GazzaL

gozunda wrote: »

Erm not quite sure what your saying there tbh. Is it that because there are some eejits ignoring restrictions at a time when infection rates were at an all time here - that you're going to do the same or ... ?

I'm saying that lots of people are currently breaking restrictions, and this is increasing. People who think things won't go back to normal are mistaken.

markodaly

markodaly wrote: »

What college did you and josip and everyone else go to, to study this in detail?

The college of boards.ie? :pac:

Seriously it’s been widely covered that the guy got it wrong. I’m actually past caring now and just like you and probably everyone else want to see a route out of this back to a properly functioning society which we don’t have right now and which isn’t good in the long term for any one of us.

ujjjjjjjjj

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They've had strong restrictions on travel while keeping most of the country open when numbers are low. Nothing at all like the extended level 5 we seem to be aiming for.

I'd be completely in favour of trying to go down the AUS/NZ route but there doesn't seem to be any appetite for it here.

Irish border........and the fact that the virus is endemic in our population.

Two reasons why it is not plausible.

josip

markodaly wrote: »

Yea, you are right. Professor Azra Ghani, Epidemiologist from Imperial College London, who studied Mathematics at Cambridge and is elected to the Academy of Medical Sciences, whose entire field of specialty is this subject, modelling outbreaks.... is wrong.

While you josip, random guy on boards.ie and the internet some other dudes are right.....

:P:pac::D;)

Funny you should mention it marko, but not only has she been wrong in the past, but she's admitted it.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/16/905285/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead/

The Covid-19 Response Team based at Imperial College in London revealed on Monday that the government’s experts realized only over the last few days that its policy would “likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths”—potentially 250,000—and that the burden on health systems would exceed their capacities and resources by as much as eight times."

We were expecting herd immunity to build,” Azra Ghani, head of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College, told reporters Monday. “We now realize it’s not possible to cope with that.”

Quantum Baloney

Government have done plenty wrong IMO but at least they never made masks mandatory on the street which is at least a major thing we can be thankful for.

PTH2009

Quantum Baloney wrote: »

Government have done plenty wrong IMO but at least they never made masks mandatory on the street which is at least a major thing we can be thankful for.

weren't they mandatory over the Christmas period ?