When will it all end?

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-o...-world-1152417

Trinity Professor Luke O’Neill...... We are now “taking the first tentative steps towards the endgame” of the coronavirus pandemic........... the Trinity Immunologist said the world could finally leave the pandemic behind in six to nine months.

I reckon we'll see some restrictions throughout the Summer and into Autumn.
We should all going well be able to do some travelling to other counties over the Summer for staycations etc

Perhaps a situation like last August for the Summer of 2021?

With ... 12 weeks between doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine we won't have everyone vaccinated for quite a few months let.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-o...il-may-1150541 ............

You can see now why it took a while for EU to approve the AstraZeneca vaccine, it was not at all clear about best practise for the dosing intervals.

!2 weeks between doses for max efficacy is a bit of a sh1tter if they won't consider folk "vaccinated" until they've the second one complete. Hopefully we get the J&J one soon.

hynesie08

Bigfatmichael wrote: »

Suicides would Jump the roof, hospitals would be 10 times more overwhelmed than their peak with Covid with people detoxing, illegal drug use would spiral.

You don't really live in the real world

I completely agree with him............

Just give me 12 hours to get a van and the name of a grave in Newry that needs tending........

Thespoofer

Thespoofer wrote: »

Guys it's like a roller coaster at this stage the whole lot is blending into one big cloud at this stage.

I'm at the stage now and would like the opinions on what would be the worst case scenario in regards opening up ( any virologists reading this thread ? )

For example if we said there is absolutely no way possible, we can have any major restrictions ( I dont mind the small stuff, masks in shops etc ) after say October, November, December 2021 or even further out?

Just a bit of hope, dont care how far out it is, just something defenite.

Or maybe no one can tell for sure.

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

Yeah that sounds about right. 70-80% of the population vaccinated is a pretty higher bar. They will need to have vaccinated a big proportion of children for that to happen and the vaccines haven’t been approved for children yet. Trials starting now and they hope to have approval by the end of the year. So we’re not realistically talking about reaching 70-80% of the total population by the until the of the year at the earliest.

Maybe things will go better than planned. Who knows. But most likely looking at restrictions into next winter and hopefully have a clear run at 2022 when the weather warms and pretty much everyone is vaccinated except the anti vaxers.

Samsonsmasher

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah that sounds about right. 70-80% of the population vaccinated is a pretty higher bar. They will need to have vaccinated a big proportion of children for that to happen and the vaccines haven’t been approved for children yet. Trials starting now and they hope to have approval by the end of the year. So we’re not realistically talking about reaching 70-80% of the total population by the until the of the year at the earliest.

Maybe things will go better than planned. Who knows. But most likely looking at restrictions into next winter and hopefully have a clear run at 2022 when the weather warms and pretty much everyone is vaccinated except the anti vaxers.

There will still be cases and deaths and this will be used to continue restrictions and lockdowns.

A large portion of society will continue to wear masks use sanitizer and stay at home for the rest of their lives.

They will also demand that everyone else does.

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

Yeap agree with most of this.

Anyone could see weeks ago that this year was going to be a tough one and the pandemic wasn't going to disappear in a few weeks, like some hoped. The end game is coming, but its going to be long and drawn out.

Silentcorner

Can I ask a question, if we have a few dozen cases a day, are we still considering that a pandemic?

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

Yeap agree with most of this.

Anyone could see weeks ago that this year was going to be a tough one and the pandemic wasn't going to disappear in a few weeks, like some hopedThe end game is coming, but its going to be long and drawn out.

Why do you keep posting this condescending exaggerated nonsense? Show me posts where some have said “ in a few weeks”? Or do you post this shyte to make you seem more relevent on here or something?

Samsonsmasher

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

There will still be cases and deaths and this will be used to continue restrictions and lockdowns.

A large portion of society will continue to wear masks use sanitizer and stay at home for the rest of their lives.

They will also demand that everyone else does.

They can stay at home all they want but despite some restrictions we'll be out and about in about 6 months ...... pubs will likely be open also in some shape or form IMO.

Thespoofer

Tazz T wrote: »

I don't think any virologist can help you (although I did immunology at uni ), because no one can predict what the gov will do. We could be in double digits and still have no pubs and be fined for travelling while the rest of Europe is open this summer.

Based on historical epidemiology (a lot of people don't realise that there has been quite a few coronavirus pandemics through history), back in November I reckoned we could reasonably expect this to end in June of this year, but a number of factors meant the 3rd wave started a month early than anticipated. This potentially could be all over in May now.

There may be a blip between now and autumn, as restrictions ease, followed by a blip at Xmas as those first vaxxed (the elderly) require boosters (I suspect this will happen every year and will probably be given at the same time as the annual flu jab, maybe incorporated with it). But there is no historical precedent for a new wave and the vaccine would negate that anyway. Variants are an issue, but when infections are low, variants will be much slower to occur and easier to deal with.

The problem is, while I'm sure NYPHET have the data and the expertise that tells them this may very well be the case, they will play it very safe as will the government. So if it is coming to an end, they'll say it's the restrictions working and continue with the restrictions that are more severe than actually needed. They can't be seen to get it wrong.

Thanks for taking the time to post this.

Thespoofer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

Thanks. Just knowing there will be an end to it regardless of the length of time helps.

El_Duderino 09

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

There will still be cases and deaths and this will be used to continue restrictions and lockdowns.

A large portion of society will continue to wear masks use sanitizer and stay at home for the rest of their lives.

They will also demand that everyone else does.

Maybe. But i suspect this is masochistic nonsense.

For anyone who is interested, the charge of being a doom and gloom monger, has been thrown around a lot recently. The post above is an actual example of a doom and gloom outlook. There has been a lot of solid, realistic good news this week and this poster above is spouting, self pitying, doom and gloom.

Thespoofer

Thespoofer wrote: »

Thanks. Just knowing there will be an end to it regardless of the length of time helps.

An "end" to current restrictions is inevitable, as it is simply unsustainable to continue past 2021 with lockdowns and large suppression of the economy. Regardless of cases, deaths etc. The question with our current situation is how much long-term economic damage will be done between now and that point.

"Worst case scenario" is something much more deadly comes along in the next decade. At the same time, I'd say try to worry as little as possible. Occupy yourself and stay busy. Don't be reading never-ending bad news on the likes of RTE. It's the equivalent of emotional self-harm to some.

Tazz T

Silentcorner wrote: »

Can I ask a question, if we have a few dozen cases a day, are we still considering that a pandemic?

No doubt, it will be called that to justify excessive restrictions, along with any rise in cases, even in double digits will be classified a 'new wave'.

A bit like how recently all the papers were predicting the Beast From The East: The Sequel for weeks. And we woke up one morning to a light layer of snow that disappeared an hour later.

OwenM

Gestureapo wrote: »

If NPHET was in charge of road safety

They'd change the speed limit to 20mph overnite and wipe out road traffic deaths

And you'd still have to wear a mask under your helmet inside your car..... The next bend is crucial

Ginger n Lemon

Weather is gorgeous outside.

seriously how can any1 looking out the window think "yes restrictions should continue for another 6 months, better safe than sorry, maybe Zimbabwean variant could be dangerous we dont know, need more data, stay at home for now"

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Weather is gorgeous outside.

seriously how can any1 looking out the window think "yes restrictions should continue for another 6 months, better safe than sorry, maybe Zimbabwean variant could be dangerous we dont know, need more data, stay at home for now"

Imagine basing restrictions on what the weather is like.

hynesie08

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Weather is gorgeous outside.

seriously how can any1 looking out the window think "yes restrictions should continue for another 6 months, better safe than sorry, maybe Zimbabwean variant could be dangerous we dont know, need more data, stay at home for now"

What part of the country are you in? Because the weather is painfully average here in Dublin?

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Weather is gorgeous outside.

seriously how can any1 looking out the window think "yes restrictions should continue for another 6 months, better safe than sorry, maybe Zimbabwean variant could be dangerous we dont know, need more data, stay at home for now"

Who is talking about the Zimbabwean variant?

radharc

hynesie08 wrote: »

On the same day 1500 people got their first dose and 6500 got their second dose........

On the same day 365,000 people in the UK got their first dose ...

Penfailed

radharc wrote: »

On the same day 365,000 people in the UK got their first dose ...

...and they'll be waiting a while before they're fully vaccinated.

El_Duderino 09

radharc wrote: »

On the same day 365,000 people in the UK got their first dose ...

Yeah the UK is doing great. Miles ahead of almost everywhere in the world.

The post above was in response to a fairly misleading piece of info on the the number of people getting the vaccine on that day.

PTH2009

New slogan will be 'the one last push to get rid of covid' which will keep us in level 4/5 for the next 6 months

Even with the news we might have 1 Million vaccines a word (Leo said it so take it with a grain of salt) its still all doom and gloom

hynesie08

radharc wrote: »

On the same day 365,000 people in the UK got their first dose ...

Jaysus, they were doing 500k+ a day last week...... Heads should roll, not good enough, glacial rollout etc.

El_Duderino 09

PTH2009 wrote: »

New slogan will be 'the one last push to get rid of covid' which will keep us in level 4/5 for the next 6 months

Even with the news we might have 1 Million vaccines a word (Leo said it so take it with a grain of salt) its still all doom and gloom

You are doom and gloom. Made up slogans, made up scenarios, and rubbishing genuinely good news. You are doom and gloom.

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

New slogan will be 'the one last push to get rid of covid' which will keep us in level 4/5 for the next 6 months

Even with the news we might have 1 Million vaccines a word (Leo said it so take it with a grain of salt) its still all doom and gloom

Only for people like you who thrive on the misery.

I'm positively giddy with the news that over 1.2 million Irish people should have a vaccine shot in their arm by the end of March, with our elderly and most vulnerable fully vaccinated.......

El_Duderino 09

hynesie08 wrote: »

Only for people like you who thrive on the misery.

I'm positively giddy with the news that over 1.2 million Irish people should have a vaccine shot in their arm by the end of March, with our elderly and most vulnerable fully vaccinated.......

That was great new. I haven't see the bit about 1.2m vaccinated by the end or march, but the news about the vaccine supply increase is excellent. The doom and gloom merchants are clear to see. Making up bad news stories to whip each other up into a lather, inventing scenarios where people stay indoors for the rest of their lives. It's sad to see this is how they react to genuinely good news.

Ginger n Lemon

hynesie08 wrote: »

Only for people like you who thrive on the misery.

I'm positively giddy with the news that over 1.2 million Irish people should have a vaccine shot in their arm by the end of March, with our elderly and most vulnerable fully vaccinated.......

Very giddy here too. We should probably re open on 1st of April if 1.2m prediction comes through - what do you think?

Or maybe another few months in L4/5 just to be on the safe side? :pac:

CalamariFritti

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Maybe. But i suspect this is masochistic nonsense.

For anyone who is interested, the charge of being a doom and gloom monger, has been thrown around a lot recently. The post above is an actual example of a doom and gloom outlook. There has been a lot of solid, realistic good news this week and this poster above is spouting, self pitying, doom and gloom.

I dont know. It is a pessimistic prediction but its hardly off the charts pessimistic . I think this is a real worry. Its not like we dont have history on over-the-top and hysteria.

CalamariFritti

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Very giddy here too. We should probably re open on 1st of April if 1.2m prediction comes through - what do you think?

Or maybe another few months in L4/5 just to be on the safe side? :pac:

I just heard we will totally open up on April 1st. But dont tell anyone, its supposed to be a big surprise on the day.