2020 NFL Playoffs - Divisional round

peejay1986

Definitely would've preferred the Saints coming to Lambeau, due to Brady's experience with cold weather conditions. However, the Packers have everything needed to get revenge on the Bucs for the Week 6 loss.

Rodgers vs Brady
Alexander vs Evans
Adams vs...whoever dares

I can't wait to watch it.

Xavi6

Foxtrol wrote: »

Feel the Bucs D is very much flattered by the fact Brees can't threaten deep. It will be a completely different story next week with Rodgers. Packers defense isn't as strong but I don't see the Bucs getting such short fields

Fair, Rodgers is a whole different prospect and I hope he carves them up

A State Farm Super Bowl, please and thank you.

The_Kew_Tour

Bucs came of age tonight. Will they be first team to host Super Bowl in backyard? Would not rule them out. I like to see Bills do it even if a rival.

2 of the greats on one side, 2 of the upcoming stars on the other. Roll on next week

LuckyLloyd

BrentMused wrote: »

The right time for Brees to call it a day on his excellent career.

His arm has been deteriorating for years but at this stage it's well and truly cooked.

Not enough arm strength left to try any deep shots and the Saints are now at the point of bringing backups in when they want to go deep.

It was actually at least a year too late. The Saints wasted a good roster on him. Winston or Hill would have given them a higher expectation all year.

BonnieSituation

Brady being this close to a an SB is how I used to feel when Kerry got to an AISF.

I can't bear the lead up into this week. It's gonna be chronic.

Xavi6

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Bucs came of age tonight. Will they be first team to host Super Bowl in backyard? Would not rule them out. I like to see Bills do it even if a rival.

2 of the greats on one side, 2 of the upcoming stars on the other. Roll on next week

Chad Henne is 35 though

Foxtrol

Barney92 wrote: »

How often do you get an immediate premier talent at 30 (I know they moved up to 26 in the end) and 62 in the draft? AJ Dillon has played decently since coming back from Covid. Also Aaron Jones might be leaving at the end of the year, so I'd be happy to have another back ready to go in case he leaves. Maybe the defence would be a bit better with Antoine Winfield Jr, but outside of that I don't see too many who would make the team much better. Patrick Queen maybe but I haven't been massively impressed with him. Love might turn out to be useless but I'm happy enough with them planning for the future. If he comes good in a few years it will have been the right choice. Even if he doesn't I would rather they try to find Rodgers' replacement before he leaves.

The value in QBs and RBs on rookie deals is only really helpful when they are actually playing. With the way Rodgers is performing Love won't see the field next year or even the year after. Outside of some crazy trade or Rodgers completely falling off a cliff, you're now talking at best seeing Love getting his first snaps in the 4th year - after you have to sign up for his 5th year option and most of the value of the rookie deal is gone. As for RBs, you see again and again how you can plug in RBs and have them perform in their first year, they don't need a year on the bench like other positions. You have guys like Robinson playing well and they weren't even drafted, forget about the 2nd round.

There are a litany of players that were picked after 30 that would be an upgrade on what the Packers have as starters or at minimum been good rotational pieces. Imagine Rodgers throwing to Claypool, or most of the 2nd round WRs, rather than a QB sitting at home or their D line being more stout against the run with someone like Raekwon Davis rather than an RB that unless it is a snow game hasn't gotten more than 6 carries in a game. Even the 4th round pick they gave away they could have had L'Jarius Sneed who has started at CB for the Chiefs and played really well (the last one is a bit of an stretch as the 4th round is a gamble but shows why throwing away picks can come back to bite you).

There is planning for the future and what looks like potentially wasting a Superbowl window because you can't assess what you have - to me the Packers are doing the latter with their disastrous draft.

Foxtrol

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It was actually at least a year too late. The Saints wasted a good roster on him. Winston or Hill would have given them a higher expectation all year.

Maybe you have an risk to upside argument with Winston but Hill hasn't shown anything to point to him being a starting caliber QB in the NFL, especially at the age he is. I don't know what they were thinking with that contract they gave him. Given their insanely bad cap situation they are going to be a complete shell of the team we know when they come back next year - such pity they had so many close calls over the last few years.

eagle eye

LuckyLloyd wrote:

It was actually at least a year too late. The Saints wasted a good roster on him. Winston or Hill would have given them a higher expectation all year.

Brees was having a great season up until the injury.

el Fenomeno

Obviously would love to see the Bucs do it but have to make Green Bay favourites. It took 3 turnovers for Tampa to score their 3 touchdowns tonight. Very unlikely they'll get anything from Rodgers.

Should be a great game all the same.

Barney92

Foxtrol wrote: »

The value in QBs and RBs on rookie deals is only really helpful when they are actually playing. With the way Rodgers is performing Love won't see the field next year or even the year after. Outside of some crazy trade or Rodgers completely falling off a cliff, you're now talking at best seeing Love getting his first snaps in the 4th year - after you have to sign up for his 5th year option and most of the value of the rookie deal is gone. As for RBs, you see again and again how you can plug in RBs and have them perform in their first year, they don't need a year on the bench like other positions. You have guys like Robinson playing well and they weren't even drafted, forget about the 2nd round.

There are a litany of players that were picked after 30 that would be an upgrade on what the Packers have as starters or at minimum been good rotational pieces. Imagine Rodgers throwing to Claypool, or most of the 2nd round WRs, rather than a QB sitting at home or their D line being more stout against the run with someone like Raekwon Davis rather than an RB that unless it is a snow game hasn't gotten more than 6 carries in a game. Even the 4th round pick they gave away they could have had L'Jarius Sneed who has started at CB for the Chiefs and played really well (the last one is a bit of an stretch as the 4th round is a gamble but shows why throwing away picks can come back to bite you).

There is planning for the future and what looks like potentially wasting a Superbowl window because you can't assess what you have - to me the Packers are doing the latter with their disastrous draft.

I get that good rookie qbs are more valuable on their rookie deal, similarly RBs. I'm not saying that a rookie RB needs time on the bench. I'm just not too disappointed to have a decent looking player in case Jones leaves.

Maybe they would be slightly better on offence with Claypool, but it's hard to argue that they be that much better given how good they were with the players they have. Maybe the number 1 offence becomes slightly more high-scoring but not much more.

Raekwon Davis seems to have started well in his career, so yes he may have made them slightly better against the run. But even you saying that they could get someone like him is really they would have had to get him. Looking down there don't seem to be any players better than what the Packers have at the minute on the D-line where they could have got them.

Sneed might be their fourth cornerback, and yes maybe he would have made them slightly better on defence. 5/6 other corners chosen in the fourth round and not much to write home about.

Overall, yes they might have gotten marginally better choosing other players this year had they nailed all of their selections. However, I'd rather them take a chance and go with the QB they think will be there for after Rodgers when they get the chance.

cosatron

Foxtrol wrote: »

The value in QBs and RBs on rookie deals is only really helpful when they are actually playing. With the way Rodgers is performing Love won't see the field next year or even the year after. Outside of some crazy trade or Rodgers completely falling off a cliff, you're now talking at best seeing Love getting his first snaps in the 4th year - after you have to sign up for his 5th year option and most of the value of the rookie deal is gone. As for RBs, you see again and again how you can plug in RBs and have them perform in their first year, they don't need a year on the bench like other positions. You have guys like Robinson playing well and they weren't even drafted, forget about the 2nd round.

There are a litany of players that were picked after 30 that would be an upgrade on what the Packers have as starters or at minimum been good rotational pieces. Imagine Rodgers throwing to Claypool, or most of the 2nd round WRs, rather than a QB sitting at home or their D line being more stout against the run with someone like Raekwon Davis rather than an RB that unless it is a snow game hasn't gotten more than 6 carries in a game. Even the 4th round pick they gave away they could have had L'Jarius Sneed who has started at CB for the Chiefs and played really well (the last one is a bit of an stretch as the 4th round is a gamble but shows why throwing away picks can come back to bite you).

There is planning for the future and what looks like potentially wasting a Superbowl window because you can't assess what you have - to me the Packers are doing the latter with their disastrous draft.

were in the nfc championship game and your saying the packers had a disastrous draft. Love is a project at present and if the sole purpose of drafting love was to light a fire under rodgers ass it worked a treat. Aj dillon won us the game against the titans and only for he got a bad case of covid would of being more active this year, Kamal Martin again got a bad injury and had some nice moments, Deguara got a bad injury aswell and Runyan will be guard next year as his looks like one for the future. And for your information packers are in superbowl window every year and draft for need with an eye on the future for as long as ive following them.

letowski

Foxtrol wrote: »

Maybe you have an risk to upside argument with Winston but Hill hasn't shown anything to point to him being a starting caliber QB in the NFL, especially at the age he is. I don't know what they were thinking with that contract they gave him. Given their insanely bad cap situation they are going to be a complete shell of the team we know when they come back next year - such pity they had so many close calls over the last few years.

Yeah I think this is the end of the road for the Saints. I didn't realise that Drew Brees has a $22.6m dead cap hit next season. The franchise is like almost $100m over the cap. They have to completely restructure their roster now.

LuckyLloyd

Foxtrol wrote: »

Maybe you have an risk to upside argument with Winston but Hill hasn't shown anything to point to him being a starting caliber QB in the NFL, especially at the age he is. I don't know what they were thinking with that contract they gave him. Given their insanely bad cap situation they are going to be a complete shell of the team we know when they come back next year - such pity they had so many close calls over the last few years.

I think Hill will be their QB next year and they'll make the playoffs with him. It becomes a different offence when he's playing but he's shown enough to win games with his legs.

They paid him because they wanted that dimension on the roster. Now they will have to go with him because of their cap situation. But they still have enough on hand to win 9 or 10 games and sneak in imo.

Fundamentally though, I just don't think capping out around Brees has proven to be the right move. He hasn't been getting it done when it matters because defences fully focussed on him give him the throws he can't make anymore.

eagle eye wrote: »

Brees was having a great season up until the injury.

He was putting up some stats but his limitations are there. His arm just isn't at that level anymore and they can't small ball their way down the field against playoff competition. Two years in a row beaten at home in the playoffs turning it over speaks for itself.

adrian522

Yeah I agree on Brees. He can no longer throw the ball deep, he is super accurate and an excellent reader of the defense but there is simply no deep threat whatsoever with him

From the second half the Buccs went with tight man to man coverage, crowding the line, meaning Brees hold it too long and taking away the run and they had no answers.

Essentially darting them to go deep. So difficult to go on 12 - 15 play drives over and over again against a good defense.

Brady isn't much better but at least they still take deep shots although usually not completing them, they are at least keeping the defense honest. With The Saints they need to bring in the backup if they want to throw deep.

Realt Dearg Sec

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

3-3 playoffs
176-86 overall

Packers
Bills
Chiefs
Saints

3-1
6-4 in playoffs
179-87 overall

adrian522

adrian522 wrote: »

5-1 coming in.

Packers
Bills
Chiefs
Tampa Bay.

9-1 Now for the playoffs.

Christy42

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think Hill will be their QB next year and they'll make the playoffs with him. It becomes a different offence when he's playing but he's shown enough to win games with his legs.

They paid him because they wanted that dimension on the roster. Now they will have to go with him because of their cap situation. But they still have enough on hand to win 9 or 10 games and sneak in imo.

Fundamentally though, I just don't think capping out around Brees has proven to be the right move. He hasn't been getting it done when it matters because defences fully focussed on him give him the throws he can't make anymore.



He was putting up some stats but his limitations are there. His arm just isn't at that level anymore and they can't small ball their way down the field against playoff competition. Two years in a row beaten at home in the playoffs turning it over speaks for itself.

It will depend on what they do to that roster. It is a very strong overall team and Hill didn't really go against any top tier teams. Atlanta twice, Eagles and a Denver side that didn't have a QB.

Sticking him as the main man will show up his issues more and if they have to revamp a lot of the team for the cap it will put a lot more pressure on Hill.

eagle eye

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He was putting up some stats but his limitations are there. His arm just isn't at that level anymore and they can't small ball their way down the field against playoff competition. Two years in a row beaten at home in the playoffs turning it over speaks for itself.

He broke ribs only a couple of months ago, that's the reason he was struggling I think. He was doing it before the injury.

His completion percentage was at 74% before the injury. Since it his average dropped to 62.5%.

His yards per attempt since the injury is 6.95 yards per attempt, before the injury it was 7.5 yards per attempt.

And he was doing this without Michael Thomas too.

Foxtrol

cosatron wrote: »

were in the nfc championship game and your saying the packers had a disastrous draft. Love is a project at present and if the sole purpose of drafting love was to light a fire under rodgers ass it worked a treat. Aj dillon won us the game against the titans and only for he got a bad case of covid would of being more active this year, Kamal Martin again got a bad injury and had some nice moments, Deguara got a bad injury aswell and Runyan will be guard next year as his looks like one for the future. And for your information packers are in superbowl window every year and draft for need with an eye on the future for as long as ive following them.

The bold was my original point and issue, how good should the Packers be now if they didn't waste premier draft picks.

I call absolute bullsh1t that a team drafted a QB in the first to 'light a fire' under Rodgers - if they did that the coach and GM should be fired on the spot for not being able to motivate him without throwing away draft picks. Even if you buy into that being what happened, surely they should have picked a player that after nearly a full season that would be deemed to be a better option than Tim Boyle.

Nice humble brag about always being in the SB window but I don't see that as much of an achievement when you have a QB in the discussion to be the GOAT - being in contention is the bare minimum that should be expected. Now I understand that winning rings or even making it to SB isn't easy but I feel the Packers have wasted Rodgers' career with their lack of success - which is why their approach frustrates me so much.

The way you're talking is like the Packers have been to the Super Bowl every year or two for the last 15 years, rather than making it once. To me as it is insane not to maximise a year of Rodgers and winning a Super Bowl on a gamble that a 1st round pick might help you 3 or 4 years from now and your 2nd round might help you the following year. It might still all work out and they win it this year, I hope it does, but that doesn't make the process any better.

Foxtrol

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think Hill will be their QB next year and they'll make the playoffs with him. It becomes a different offence when he's playing but he's shown enough to win games with his legs.

They paid him because they wanted that dimension on the roster. Now they will have to go with him because of their cap situation. But they still have enough on hand to win 9 or 10 games and sneak in imo.

Fundamentally though, I just don't think capping out around Brees has proven to be the right move. He hasn't been getting it done when it matters because defences fully focussed on him give him the throws he can't make anymore.

They didn't really have a choice other than sticking with Brees though due to his contract.

I think Hill will be their QB next year but I'd be shocked if they get to 9 or 10 wins with him even if they were able to keep the current team together. You can point out Brees' limitations but Hill has many more of them.

Given their terrible cap situation I don't expect them to be able to keep close to their current team together and they'll enter a near complete rebuild. I'd be surprised if Hill was there the following year with their higher draft pick and reorganised cap.

Barney92

Foxtrol wrote: »

The bold was my original point and issue, how good should the Packers be now if they didn't waste premier draft picks.

On this I do agree in a way, but by the same token if the Jets didn't waste premier draft picks then they'd be class. Just from 2017 and 2016 they could have had the following. Why didn't they just do that?

2017
1 (6) - Patrick Mahomes
2 (39) - Dalvin Cook
3 (79) - Chris Godwin
4 (141) - George Kittle
5 (182) - Aaron Jones
6 (197) - Patrick Ricard

2016
1 (20) - Kenny Clark
2 (51) - Deion Jones
3 (83) - Justin Simmons
4 (118) - Matt Judon
5 (158) - Tyreek Hill
7 (241) - Cory Littleton

I realise it is somewhat of a tangent but saying the Packers wasted premier draft picks when it is unclear whether they did or not is questionable in my view. Could they have added a receiver for Rodgers, sure but the offence was the best in the league. Maybe they could have gotten a better defender than someone starting for them (although they would have had to pick one of the handful of those that might be better than starters). I don't think the Love pick was to light a fire. Rodgers is going to slow down eventually, and even if he doesn't he is going to be more likely to get another injury. The Packers have done a good job in recent years in finding talent that I think they earned the benefit of the doubt on this one. If they had the number one pick through a trade and took a QB I'd be different on this I reckon.

cosatron

Foxtrol wrote: »

The bold was my original point and issue, how good should the Packers be now if they didn't waste premier draft picks.

I call absolute bullsh1t that a team drafted a QB in the first to 'light a fire' under Rodgers - if they did that the coach and GM should be fired on the spot for not being able to motivate him without throwing away draft picks. Even if you buy into that being what happened, surely they should have picked a player that after nearly a full season that would be deemed to be a better option than Tim Boyle.

Nice humble brag about always being in the SB window but I don't see that as much of an achievement when you have a QB in the discussion to be the GOAT - being in contention is the bare minimum that should be expected. Now I understand that winning rings or even making it to SB isn't easy but I feel the Packers have wasted Rodgers' career with their lack of success - which is why their approach frustrates me so much.

The way you're talking is like the Packers have been to the Super Bowl every year or two for the last 15 years, rather than making it once. To me as it is insane not to maximise a year of Rodgers and winning a Super Bowl on a gamble that a 1st round pick might help you 3 or 4 years from now and your 2nd round might help you the following year. It might still all work out and they win it this year, I hope it does, but that doesn't make the process any better.

I’m not going to derail the thread going back and forth, let’s just say I don’t agree with you

Kev8360

Kev8360 wrote: »

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills


Kansas City Chiefs

Tampa Bay Bucanneers @ New Orlean Saints

4-0 this week , 9-1 for playoffs

DDC1990

Kev8360 wrote:

4-0 this week , 9-1 for playoffs

Pick the Bucs this week please.

Foxtrol

Barney92 wrote: »

On this I do agree in a way, but by the same token if the Jets didn't waste premier draft picks then they'd be class. Just from 2017 and 2016 they could have had the following. Why didn't they just do that?

2017
1 (6) - Patrick Mahomes
2 (39) - Dalvin Cook
3 (79) - Chris Godwin
4 (141) - George Kittle
5 (182) - Aaron Jones
6 (197) - Patrick Ricard

2016
1 (20) - Kenny Clark
2 (51) - Deion Jones
3 (83) - Justin Simmons
4 (118) - Matt Judon
5 (158) - Tyreek Hill
7 (241) - Cory Littleton

I realise it is somewhat of a tangent but saying the Packers wasted premier draft picks when it is unclear whether they did or not is questionable in my view. Could they have added a receiver for Rodgers, sure but the offence was the best in the league. Maybe they could have gotten a better defender than someone starting for them (although they would have had to pick one of the handful of those that might be better than starters). I don't think the Love pick was to light a fire. Rodgers is going to slow down eventually, and even if he doesn't he is going to be more likely to get another injury. The Packers have done a good job in recent years in finding talent that I think they earned the benefit of the doubt on this one. If they had the number one pick through a trade and took a QB I'd be different on this I reckon.

I think your Jets point is a completely different discussion. The Jets have picked poor players but the Packers decided last year to ignore helping their current team with their premier picks. Even if you want to make the argument that Love and Dillon are for the future, I'd still say they were bad picks as it is already a poor return for the to still be 3rd string and the end of their first year.

Then if you ignore all of that and see Love as a great signing to cover for Rodgers slowing down in the near future then what the hell were the Packers doing restructuring his contract to make it much more painful to cut or trade him - meaning even if Love turned out to be the next Mahomes and Rodgers fell off a cliff this season they'd but stuck with huge dead cap to move on ($31m dead cap this offseason). Nothing about their approach to last offseason makes sense.

BonnieSituation

DDC1990 wrote: »

Pick the Bucs this week please.

Kerry and a Tom Brady team.

You poor soul!

DDC1990

BonnieSituation wrote:

Kerry and a Tom Brady team.

Kerry and the Bucs maybe but Tom Brady has given me more to celebrate in 6 months than I've had for the last 15 years as a Bucs fan.

Even if they go down the Packers this year and playoff run has been a hell of a ride.

The less said about Kerry this year the better though.

Barney92

Foxtrol wrote: »

I think your Jets point is a completely different discussion. The Jets have picked poor players but the Packers decided last year to ignore helping their current team with their premier picks. Even if you want to make the argument that Love and Dillon are for the future, I'd still say they were bad picks as it is already a poor return for the to still be 3rd string and the end of their first year.

Then if you ignore all of that and see Love as a great signing to cover for Rodgers slowing down in the near future then what the hell were the Packers doing restructuring his contract to make it much more painful to cut or trade him - meaning even if Love turned out to be the next Mahomes and Rodgers fell off a cliff this season they'd but stuck with huge dead cap to move on ($31m dead cap this offseason). Nothing about their approach to last offseason makes sense.

Well it is different, except that you're choosing a select few players who may have improved their defence slightly this year. I'm extending that to if you could identify exactly which were going to be the players to improve your team what team would you get. It is a tangent but the point is that yes there may have been players that would have helped the Packers slightly more this year, but obviously they didn't think so. If a defensive player was sitting there and they thought this guy is going to be way better than Dean Lowry or Kingsley Keke and they decided to go for Love instead then yeah I'd be worried about their decision making process. If however they thought at 30 we might get a slightly better player than Lowry but probably not a massive difference and also that Love could really be a very good quarterback 2/3 years down the line then yes I think that they should take Love over the D Lineman. I'll admit it is somewhat worrying that Love isn't 2nd choice yet, but it must be particularly tough for rookie QBs this year with the stunted preparations. It is different for rookies who are going to start because they'll get all the coaches attention, but for the likes of Love it must be hard.

On the contracts, I don't know the ins and outs of all the dealings but I'd imagine reworking Rodgers' deal allowed them wiggle room in negotiating other contracts (Bakhtiari, Clark, signing Amos, the Smiths, Turner etc.). My understanding is that Rodgers' deal gets less of an issue from 2022 which is sort of when you'd expect the Love pick to start paying off (if it is going to).

On Dillion, he was unlikely to be a huge hit this year given how much of the ball Jones is given (and Williams to a less extent). He was on the COVID reserve list for 5 weeks so I wouldn't be too critical of him. If Jones and Williams were both to get injured I'd be happy to have Dillon starting at the weekend.

Foxtrol

Barney92 wrote: »

Well it is different, except that you're choosing a select few players who may have improved their defence slightly this year. I'm extending that to if you could identify exactly which were going to be the players to improve your team what team would you get. It is a tangent but the point is that yes there may have been players that would have helped the Packers slightly more this year, but obviously they didn't think so. If a defensive player was sitting there and they thought this guy is going to be way better than Dean Lowry or Kingsley Keke and they decided to go for Love instead then yeah I'd be worried about their decision making process. If however they thought at 30 we might get a slightly better player than Lowry but probably not a massive difference and also that Love could really be a very good quarterback 2/3 years down the line then yes I think that they should take Love over the D Lineman. I'll admit it is somewhat worrying that Love isn't 2nd choice yet, but it must be particularly tough for rookie QBs this year with the stunted preparations. It is different for rookies who are going to start because they'll get all the coaches attention, but for the likes of Love it must be hard.

On the contracts, I don't know the ins and outs of all the dealings but I'd imagine reworking Rodgers' deal allowed them wiggle room in negotiating other contracts (Bakhtiari, Clark, signing Amos, the Smiths, Turner etc.). My understanding is that Rodgers' deal gets less of an issue from 2022 which is sort of when you'd expect the Love pick to start paying off (if it is going to).

On Dillion, he was unlikely to be a huge hit this year given how much of the ball Jones is given (and Williams to a less extent). He was on the COVID reserve list for 5 weeks so I wouldn't be too critical of him. If Jones and Williams were both to get injured I'd be happy to have Dillon starting at the weekend.

Packers have been relatively lucky when it comes to injury so it isn't just looking at whether draft picks would be better than starters (something you're doing for 3rd string Dillon but not for all the other picks post 30 that would at least have improved depth if not straight up improved on starters).

Cutting Rodgers in 2022 will still leave $17m in dead cap, with a cap number of nearly $40m if he is on the team. Either they're eating that huge number to move him on, are paying him $40m to sit behind Love, or Rodgers is still starting and you've spent a first round pick on a QB that won't be a starter until at earliest his 4th year - after they'll already have needed to decide to pick up his 5th year. The moves simply do not make sense when they are put together.

Again, it might all work out for the Packers this year and also Love and Dillon may become stars in the future but if they don't win it this year a reason will likely be the mess they made of helping their team this season in the draft.