Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Options
1484951535484

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Who peer reviews your own research?

    anyone can do something they call research



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Certain Rare extremes become normal. This is AGW

    If we keep warming the new extremes will be worse than anything in human history but I’m blue in the face from saying this already. Never been debunked, lots of slow learners in here



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    So what evidence is there that this certain rare extreme has become the norm? It's occurred in 1856, 1893, 1961, 1965, 2020. You say warm SSTs are now the primary factor so why were they not back a century ago? You're only blue in the face because you're not making any sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Countless hundreds of thousands dead from just one single season weather extreme in pre-industrial Europe:

    Winter Is Coming: Europe’s Deep Freeze of 1709 (nationalgeographic.com)

    So I would rethink your 'worse than anything in human history' line because this idea you have of a perfect climate in the past is totally and utterly wrong. The climate of the world today has never been in a more favourable state for human existence.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I can read it and I am not a subscriber, but here is text if others like yourself have an issue:

    Winter Is Coming: Europe’s Deep Freeze of 1709

    In the first months of 1709, Europe froze and stayed that way for months. People ice-skated on the canals of Venice, church bells broke when rung, and travelers could cross the Baltic Sea on horseback. This freakish winter ultimately claimed the lives of a vast number of Europeans and disrupted two major wars—but to this day, there is no conclusive theory for its cause.

    BYJUAN JOSÉ SÁNCHEZ ARRESEIGOR

    10 MIN READ




    This story appears in the January/February 2017 issue of National Geographic History magazine.

    It happened literally overnight in the first few days of 1709. On January 5, temperatures plummeted—not, perhaps, a surprise in European winter. But 1709 was no ordinary cold snap. Dawn broke the next morning on a continent that had frozen over from Italy to Scandinavia and from England to Russia, and would not warm up again for the next three months. During the worst winter in 500 years, extreme cold followed by food shortages caused hundreds of thousands of deaths in France alone, froze lagoons in the Mediterranean, and changed the course of a war. Shivering in England, the scholar William Derham wrote: “I believe the Frost was greater ... than any other within the Memory of Man.”

    French Freeze

    The country most affected by the terrible cold was undoubtedly France. The year 1709 had already started badly. French peasants had been hit by poor harvests, taxes, and conscription for the War of the Spanish Succession. The cold snaps of late 1708 were as nothing to the crash in temperatures that took place over the night of January 5 to 6. In the following two weeks, snow would fall and thermometers in France would drop to a low of -5°F.

    In the absence of weather forecasting, the authorities had no time to prepare for what became known as “Le Grand Hiver,” and thousands succumbed to hypothermia before measures could be taken to help them. Animals were not spared either: Numerous livestock froze in their pens, barns, and coops.


    Bust of Louis XIV by Gian Lorenzo Bernini, Palace of Versailles

    PHOTOGRAPH BY DEA/ALBUM

    The rivers, canal network, and ports froze, and snow reportedly blocked roads across France. In the port of Marseille on the Mediterranean coast, and at various points along the Rhone and Garonne Rivers, the ice was able to support the weight of laden carts, which places it around 11 inches thick. In cities that stopped receiving provisions, accounts circulated of desperate inhabitants forced to burn whatever furniture they had to keep themselves warm. Paris remained cut off from supplies for three months.


    Even the well-off, who could fall back on stocks of food and drink, found that the intense cold rendered them unusable. Bread, meat, and even some alcoholic drinks froze solid. Only hard liquors such as vodka, whiskey, and rum remained liquid. The climatic crisis held both rich and poor in its icy grip. The elite’s sprawling mansions with large windows had been constructed for show, not practicality. In Versailles, the Duchess of Orleans, sister-in-law of King Louis XIV, wrote to a relative in Hanover: “The cold here is so fierce that it fairly defies description. I am sitting by a roaring fire, have a screen before the door, which is closed, so that I can sit here with a fur around my neck and my feet in a bearskin sack, and I am still shivering and can barely hold the pen. Never in my life have I seen a winter such as this one, which freezes the wine in bottles.”


    STATE OF EMERGENCY

    The government of France’s Louis XIV was faced with a catastrophic food crisis triggered by the extremely cold winter. A special commission was appointed, charged with the urgent distribution of grain, presided over by Henri-François D’Aguesseau, depicted in this...


    PHOTOGRAPH COURTESY LIBRARY OF CONGRESS


    Baby, It’s Cold Outside

    Across the rest of Europe, many strange effects of the cold were observed. Numerous witnesses recorded how the abrupt drop in temperature made seemingly solid items brittle. Tree trunks would shatter with a startling cracking sound, as if an invisible woodcutter were hacking them down. Church bells when rung also fractured due to the extreme cold temperatures.

    In London, “The Great Frost,” as it came to be known, iced over the Thames River. The canals and port of Amsterdam suffered a similar fate. The Baltic Sea was solid for four whole months, and travelers were reported crossing on foot or by horse from Denmark to Sweden or Norway. Almost all the rivers in the north and center of Europe froze. Even the hot springs of Aachen in modern-day Germany iced up. Heavily laden wagons trundled across the lakes of Switzerland, and wolves ventured into villages looking for anything left to eat—which sometimes turned out to be villagers who had frozen to death.


    COLD COMFORT

    The poor died in their hovels, and the rich shivered in their grand palaces, such as Versailles near Paris, where one correspondent could “barely hold the pen.”

    PHOTOGRAPH BY RIEGER BERTRAND, GTRES


    In the Adriatic, the freeze left numerous ships trapped in the ice, their crews perishing from cold and hunger. In Venice, ice skates were used in place of the usual gondolas to get around the city. Rome and Florence were completely cut off by the heavy snowfalls. In Spain, the Ebro River iced over, and even balmy Valencia saw its olive trees destroyed by the cold.

    The weather also had political ramifications. Hostilities between France and Britain in the War of the Spanish Succession were delayed until the weather warmed. More significantly, historians regard the victory of Peter the Great’s Russia over Sweden at the Battle of Poltava in June 1709 as a decisive moment in Russia’s transformation into a regional power. Peter owed his victory, in part, to a smaller, weaker Swedish army, many of whose soldiers had perished due to the winter’s frigid temperatures.

    L’ÈTAT, C’EST FROID


    Battle of Malplaquet September 1709, by Louis Laguerre, 1713

    PHOTOGRAPH BY BRIDGEMAN/ACI

    Louis XIV ruled France for 72 years, and 1709 was one of the worst. His country bore the brunt of the deep freeze, its population and resources decimated. At the same time, his army faced major setbacks in the War of the Spanish Succession. In September 1709, France was defeated by Britain at the Battle of Malplaquet.


    Spring Fever

    The glacial conditions, however, were only the first of a series of woes to beset Europe that year. Temperatures remained abnormally low until mid-April, but the snow and ice, when they finally thawed, brought floods.

    Disease thrived throughout the year. A flu epidemic had broken out in Rome in late 1708, and the following winter’s cold and hunger only helped spread the virus, turning into a Europe-wide pandemic in 1709 and 1710. To compound the disaster, plague also arrived that year from the Ottoman Empire via Hungary.

    But of all the ills stalking Europe, hunger was, in many ways, the worst. The consequences of the food shortage lingered throughout that year and into the next. Cereals, vines, vegetables, fruit trees, flocks, and herds were all laid to waste, and the next summer’s harvest had not even been planted. The situation sparked hikes in grain prices, with prices rising sixfold during 1709.

    In France, King Louis XIV organized handouts of bread and obliged the aristocracy to do the same. He also attempted to register all grain stores in order to avoid hoarding, sending out inspectors to ensure that the rules were obeyed. But against the unrelenting misery of the times, such measures must have seemed paltry. Episodes of violence ensued, and peasants who had been reduced to eating soup made of ferns formed gangs to raid bakeries and ambush grain convoys.

    “The Great Frost” and its deadly aftermath unleashed tragic consequences for hundreds of thousands of people. In France, the population dropped in the course of 1709-1710, a period in which there were 600,000 more deaths than an average year at the time, and 200,000 fewer births—a population deficit that hobbled an already weak economy.

    WINTER WASTELAND


    Winter wasteland

    PHOTOGRAPH BY BRITISH MUSEUM/SCALA, FLORENCE

    The Italian painter and engraver Giuseppe Maria Mitelli (1634-1718) depicted the catastrophic events that spread through the whole of Europe: starvation, poverty, deadly temperatures, war, and sickness. Although the wealthy were affected by the cold, the suffering of the poor was much greater on all fronts.

    1. “Hunger and poverty” The diet of the poor, based on cereals and lacking in meat, caused widespread malnutrition and death.

    2. “Great Cold and nakedness” Mitelli vividly depicts how the cold caused shortages of fuel and warm attire.

    3. “War for all” War between Britain and France led to the loss of 30,000 lives at the Battle of Malplaquet in fall 1709.

    4. “Illness and death” Disease preyed on a weakened population, extending the misery well into 1710.


    Cause of the Cold

    Its record as the coldest winter in Europe in half a millennium remains unsurpassed, a freakish freeze that still puzzles climatologists today. Various theories for the event have been put forward. In previous years, a number of volcanoes around Europe had erupted, including Teide (on the Canary Islands), Santorini (in the eastern Mediterranean), and Vesuvius (near Naples). Huge quantities of dust and ash in the atmosphere reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth. The year 1709 also falls within the period known by climatologists as the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), when the sun’s emission of solar energy was significantly diminished. Whether these events combined to create Europe’s glacial catastrophe that winter remains a matter of heated debate.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I’ve already posted evidence tonight that rapid intensification has been increasing, those papers answer your other questions



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Don’t be stupid

    natural variability is underneath the climate change signal.

    in a Normal natural climate we wouldn’t need to argue about what causes extreme global high temperatures constantly

    because the record only gets broken in extremely unlikely conditions. Not predictibly hotter decade on decade



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Heat records are being broken left, right and center, and cold ones are becoming broken less and less.

    But I ask, why is this being sold as a bad thing? Isn't less severe cold (which is unarguably more detrimental to all life on earth) a net positive?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I think you're still missing (or ignoring) my point. I tried, but now I'm also blue in the face.




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    What are you spouting about now?

    Records are being broken in extremely likely situations and even then, at one or maybe two stations at most, though I could be wrong on that. How many stations in Italy for example, broke their high record just recently?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Oneiric3 posted in the lengthy transcript above

    Shivering in England, the scholar William Derham wrote: “I believe the Frost was greater ... than any other within the Memory of Man.”

    But was he peer reviewed? Checkmate!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    We'll let the guy who 'fact-checks' NOAA data (without actually fact-checking them, mind), and screams 'blogger' at every link posted that isn't to his liking, (while he himself posts blatant disinformation on a regular basis) answer that.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The real argument in this thread is against exaggeration or alarmism. Questionable correlation between natural weather events and AGW forcing.


    What credible scientific body has said climate change threatens the collapse of civilisation? Or further to that the extinction of the human species?


    My argument will remain that we lack fundamental understanding, data and technology to make and assess any meaningful climate impacts and differentiate natural/AGW, particularly when changes are a homogeneous global average with a fraction of change. There are vast areas that remain un monitored where inference of temperatures these vast distances is used. On average there is one station per 51,000 square kilometres (10,000 stations over 510,000,000 squared Kilometres) Assuming you discount back yard measurements, unverifiable stations and ships. That’s just land coverage not including volume which is 1.4billion cubic km.

    A further breakdown sees Antarctica has a station for every 284,000km2. The UK is ~240,000km2.


    There are moderates who want change in human behaviour with regards to nature (pollutants, sustainability, ect) We don’t need hyperbole to energise change, nor do we need to elevate climate change above current human suffering. Questioning exaggerating makes you a ‘Skeptic’.

    Scientists and scientific communities should discredit and abandon those how call AGW incontrovertible. No science is incontrovertible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I don’t fact check NOAA data. They’re the big boys, they have quality assurance protocols, and a reputation to uphold, they fact check themselves or in the rare occasion they make mistakes big enough to make a difference , other professional scientists will correct the record.

    I meant ‘check sources’ more than fact check. Does the source used accurately report the facts, was the primary source credible and do they have the expertise and reputation to make them a credible source.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Two points in reply.

    Firsttly, Derham qualified his statement by saying ‘I believe’ therefore making it an opinion rather than a statement of fact.

    secondly, people are misquoted all the time, and quotes are mis-attributed all the time, so if using that quote as evidence in a research paper he definitely would have provided a reference to the primary source if he was a half way decent researcher.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    @Nabber - good post, and I would add that almost everything that happens now-a-days is described as "extreme" and "unprecedented". Take the Covid-19 situation as a case in point in how the "science" community in cahoots with the media disgrace themselves and are never held to account for their ludicrous predictions.

    We were told that 85,000 could die in Ireland back in March 2020. Now, some will point out that the lockdown prevented that number from being reached, however, other countries who had little lockdown restrictions didn't get within an asses roar of these figures (per capita).

    We were told that the vaccines were our way out of the pandemic. Yet we see this is not the case, fully vaccinated people are ending up in ICU and hospitals, etc...

    Basically, what we are told is hyped up to the last and anything contrary to what they say is met with ridicule and at times censorship. Yet they put themselves on the moral pedestal as some sort of self-appointed guardians of humanity.

    Cocky and overconfident with a good dose of arrogance - horrible traits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    What would have happened if that wasn’t just 1 single season caused by a volcanic eruption

    If the crops failed again, and again, and again…

    Climate change isn’t just a freak event, it’s not a cycle that we can wait out, it’s potentially relentless increasingly worse disasters that will make vast areas uninhabitable displacing billions of people. This is not my opinion these are the projections for what will happen if we fail to prevent them from happening.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We evolved in an interglacial planet. The last time the earth was as warm as we’re going to make it, reptiles were the dominant type of life

    life on earth will continue. But not as we know it



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I don't agree with the bit about vaccinated people ending up in hospital. Around 5% of those in hospital are fully vaccinated, and they have an underlying condition. Without the vaccine they would probably be dead. That's the difference it makes.

    I was a bit surprised last night to see the BBC reporting that there were 133 "COVID-related" deaths in the UK yesterday. However, the footnote below said "Died through any cause within 28 days of a positive test". So many of those deaths were unrelated to COVID but still get reported so.

    We've gone off topic here but it does show how stats or "facts" can be misrepresented, even by the experts. I'm sure this reporting protocol got through the medical "peer-review" process and was the consensus approach amongst 97% of medical experts. Sound familiar?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Just out of interest, what parts of, say, Europe are going to become inhospitable? Actually, take the whole Eurasian landmass.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Quoting Danno

    Scientists and scientific communities should discredit and abandon those how call AGW incontrovertible. No science is incontrovertible.”

    Ok. Philosophically certainty is more or less impossible. The longest record for a human holding their breath is an astonishing 25 minutes. Can I say that it is incontrovertible that a human could never hold their breath for a year, or a century or a millennium? Not without qualifying that statement to exclude some currently unknown technology that can remove the requirement to breath or something to that effect


    If the climate scientists were dealing with good faith actors, they would never say things like unequivocal. But they’re dealing with professional PR campaigns that twist and amplify doubt and uncertainty. These bad faith actors mean that nuance and qualifications that could be twisted to distort the message are left out and for good reason. Just because one person held their breath for 25 minutes doesn’t mean that medical advice shouldn’t be to call for help the instant you notice someone stops breathing voluntarily



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Last time I checked, which is a good while ago in all honesty before I became pig sick of this whole C-19 thing, was that most people who died with Covid pre-vaccine era also had 'underlying conditions', and with an average age of 84, which was bang on, or even a little above the national average age of death, though things may have changed since then..

    @Akrasia, you literally dissed those charts from NOAA I posted yesterday and then claimed I copied and pasted them from a 'blog'. I don't read climate blogs, simply because my interest isn't that great, and any link or source I do post I do so with my own judgement and authority, and not yours, so your little 'fact-checks', just like those of the self-appointed upholders of all that is true and virtuous in the media, were ill-judged and wrong.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    There are plenty other examples of extreme weather throughout history that lasted longer than one season. With our current high population it is only a matter of time before another such event occurs which will cause catastrophe.

    Yes, we need to do the things to prevent human caused climate change. But even if we succeed, catastrophic climate change is still 100% guaranteed. We need to change the ways we exist on this planet and if we do that we will future proof our existence and at the same time reduce our impact on the climate. Focusing on carbon is a dangerous distraction which will have a bad end.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Recent years have already seen desertification beginning in Southern Europe. If we allow global temperatures to increase by 3c this is only going to escalate and intensify

    “Europe is increasingly affected by desertification. The risk of desertification is most serious in southern Portugal, parts of Spain and southern Italy, south-eastern Greece, Malta, Cyprus, and the areas bordering the Black Sea in Bulgaria and Romania. Studies have reported these areas to be often impacted by soil erosion, salinisation, loss of soil organic carbon, loss of biodiversity and landslides1. The long period of high temperatures and low rainfall in Europe in the summer of 2018 reminded us of the pressing importance of this problem.”

    https://op.europa.eu/webpub/eca/special-reports/desertification-33-2018/en/

    add to this, low lying areas and cities being inundated by rising oceans, and the population stress from millions of climate refugees from Africa escaping drought famine and deadly heatwaves…

    We’re already committed to some of this due to the warming we’ve locked in already. Our focus needs to be on keeping it from getting so unmanageable that it destabilizes society leading to collapse. Immediate action is required



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I'm seeing The Guardian headline already:

    "Dinosaurs Set to Return Because of Climate Change - Expert"


    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I didn’t ‘diss’ the charts. I said without you checking the baseline, they didn’t prove anything in the context of this discussion



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    But they’re dealing with professional PR campaigns that twist and amplify doubt and uncertainty. These bad faith actors mean that nuance and qualifications that could be twisted to distort the message are left out and for good reason.

    The trouble you see is the scientific community rarely if ever call out these "bad faith actors" for the bull manure they spread. Take the twat who said that British children will never know what snow was - he should have been verbally flogged for that outlandish and demonstratively false prediction - but there was nothing but crickets from the scientific community and there are countless other examples of similar predictions gone wrong. As I've said - it's all hype and bluster and it's allowed to be spun and spun.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We can worry about the next existential crisis after we survive this one.

    and most of the focus on surviving this one includes putting sustainability as a priority. Solving climate change should include protecting biodiversity, reducing waste, monitoring planetary systems more closely to give us advance warning of future crises

    if we don’t stop climate change we’re more or less doomed, if we stop climate change but ruin the biodiversity on our planet we’re also doomed. But if we can figure out how to live sustainably. We’ve secured the future of our species for generations to come



Advertisement