Is 2021 a write off?

Danno

Anyone booking flights would deserve to lose their money, in fact anyone booking a holiday abroad deserves to be fined for stupidity.

The fools who departed last summer brought the virus back here and are directly responsible for the Sept-Oct surge. Ditto for the idiots flying home for Christmas 2020.

This is on you.

Cerveza

Go back to your cave Danno.

basill

Yep the virus would never have been cheap enough to hitch a ride on the thousands of trucks coming into the country from the North or on the ferries from the UK and France.

TallyRand

Danno wrote: »

Anyone booking flights would deserve to lose their money, in fact anyone booking a holiday abroad deserves to be fined for stupidity.

The fools who departed last summer brought the virus back here and are directly responsible for the Sept-Oct surge. Ditto for the idiots flying home for Christmas 2020.

This is on you.

“This is on you” wow big arnie type sign off there!
Shut up, one minute it was all the cheltenham heads who were going to cause a spike, they didn’t.

Then it was ‘kids are superspreaders’, they weren’t.

Now it’s the summer travelers, hmmm must have been a big spike in august, sept so? There wasn’t

Leave off the dramatic language there pal, stop the blame game and do some moderating or whatever floats your boat

Danno

TallyRand wrote: »

“This is on you” wow big arnie type sign off there!
Shut up, one minute it was all the cheltenham heads who were going to cause a spike, they didn’t.

Then it was ‘kids are superspreaders’, they weren’t.

Now it’s the summer travelers, hmmm must have been a big spike in august, sept so? There wasn’t

Leave off the dramatic language there pal, stop the blame game and do some moderating or whatever floats your boat

It was well documented that 60% of Autumn 2020 cases here were traceable to Spain. You can be pretty sure that Spain was only one country of choice that 1.3 million passengers going through Irish Airports between July and September were headed/returning from.

Today 50% of cases here are UK variant and rising.

Tell me again how does the virus get here? Swim?

Mr. Karate

rob316 wrote: »

I think we'll be back enjoying holidays by June. The whole year is certainly not a right off.

They'll have to reopen at some point. People will only tolerate this for so much longer.

Plus the Govt will want tax money to start rolling in at some point to pay for all these lockdowns.

shenanagans

travel abroad will be possible by summer but factor in €250p/p for cpr tests.

you can go. but you'll have to pay out.

according to experts we need 80% of population vaccinated to prevent further lockdowns.

vaccine will protect you but you can still carry and transmit virus .... so testing when travelling won't go away anytime soon.

Danno

basill wrote: »

Yep the virus would never have been cheap enough to hitch a ride on the thousands of trucks coming into the country from the North or on the ferries from the UK and France.

Plane loads of passengers versus single occupancy trucks. :rolleyes:

TallyRand

Danno wrote: »

It was well documented that 60% of Autumn 2020 cases here were traceable to Spain. You can be pretty sure that Spain was only one country of choice that 1.3 million passengers going through Irish Airports between July and September were headed/returning from.

Today 50% of cases here are UK variant and rising.

Tell me again how does the virus get here? Swim?

How does all the sh1t you buy get here? swim?
You might aswell ask How does bad weather get here.

I must check these “well documented” cases that caused a major surge in august......all the outrage junkies have got so much wrong it’s embarrassing, calm down for a little while pal....your finger wagging does nothing.

Also, interesting how people who did travel abroad in the summer are to blame, they must have broke the “rules”? They didn’t!

Don’t be going to spar or centra anytime soon, my arbitrary rules state you are picking up items and handling them amongst other shoppers and checkout staff.....THIS IS ON YOU

boege

Danno wrote: »

It was well documented that 60% of Autumn 2020 cases here were traceable to Spain. You can be pretty sure that Spain was only one country of choice that 1.3 million passengers going through Irish Airports between July and September were headed/returning from.

Today 50% of cases here are UK variant and rising.

Tell me again how does the virus get here? Swim?

You are out by a factor of 10 - total departures plus arrivals to Spain in Q3 2020 was about 150,000 people, which is about 75,000 people travelled. There was nearly as many flights to Poland. Overall numbers were down 87.5% on Q3 2019. Spain was in a mess last summer and very few travelled. The most popular Spanish destination was Malaga and the total out and back figure for Q3 2020 was 11,000.

The vast number of people travelling in and out of the country were traveling to and from UK (~370k). My suspicion is that many of these were work related and I would not be surprised if we find that the Spanish virus arrived to Ireland via the UK. It was the dominant strain in the UK -way more so than here.

Ref: CSO data.

B.A._Baracus

shenanagans wrote: »

travel abroad will be possible by summer but factor in €250p/p for cpr tests.

you can go. but you'll have to pay out.

according to experts we need 80% of population vaccinated to prevent further lockdowns.

vaccine will protect you but you can still carry and transmit virus .... so testing when travelling won't go away anytime soon.

Those two points are the biggest factors.
There's talk about having four million people vaccinated by the end of September (RTE News) so that would be 80%. However let's just wait and see. It's just talk at this point.

2021 is gonna be spent alot in lockdown I feel.
It takes time to vaccinate the nation so until that happens more lockdowns will be in place.

TallyRand

boege wrote: »

You are out by a factor of 10 - total departures plus arrivals to Spain in Q3 2020 was about 150,000 people, which is about 75,000 people travelled. There was nearly as many flights to Poland. Overall numbers were down 87.5% on Q3 2019. Spain was in a mess last summer and very few travelled. The most popular Spanish destination was Malaga and the total out and back figure for Q3 2020 was 11,000.

The vast number of people travelling in and out of the country were traveling to and from UK (~370k). My suspicion is that many of these were work related and I would not be surprised if we find that the Spanish virus arrived to Ireland via the UK. It was the dominant strain in the UK -way more so than here.

Ref: CSO data.

Do you mind? He or her is busy finger wagging.
Why you would mention little things like facts to spoil the outrage is beyond me

shenanagans

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Those two points are the biggest factors.
There's talk about having four million people vaccinated by the end of September (RTE News) so that would be 80%. However let's just wait and see. It's just talk at this point.

2021 is gonna be spent alot in lockdown I feel.
It takes time to vaccinate the nation so until that happens more lockdowns will be in place.

Heard that Professor Staines on radio earlier. His view was that life will not get back to normal until Autumn and we're looking at 2 more lockdowns before then.

Surreptitious

It's only January. I try to take it day by day.

ED E

Ferris_Bueller wrote: »

Surely anyone who is saying the full year will be a write off is on a wind up, I know none of us know exactly when things will get back to normal and maybe some things such as mask wearing and hand sanitizer will be here to stay, but if we are aiming to have everyone vaccinated by the end of September surely we will be back to normal for Halloween at the latest, even if you are a pessimist.

I'm hoping that a relatively normal summer is on the cards. I'm not expecting big festivals or concerts to go ahead but I'm hoping that most social gatherings - weddings, pubs, restaurants will be permitted without restriction by July and August. Hard to know on travel, would love to get away this summer but not going to go booking anything yet.

The optimist in me is hoping that we will see a huge improvement around March time after a few months of lockdown and all of the most vulnerable vaccinated. It will be interesting to see how the government and NPHET react around that time if the virus is still in wide circulation but hospital numbers and deaths are very low.

Nope.


Herd immunity doesn't kick in until around 85% of the vaccinatable population. We won't be near there until autumn. Summers a gonner.

Kermit.de.frog

Danno wrote: »

Anyone booking flights would deserve to lose their money, in fact anyone booking a holiday abroad deserves to be fined for stupidity.

The fools who departed last summer brought the virus back here and are directly responsible for the Sept-Oct surge. Ditto for the idiots flying home for Christmas 2020.

This is on you.

Not only is contracting the disease a high risk but every country is liable to implement full lock downs at any time and closing borders, restricting travel.

Pretty silly to be booking a holiday abroad at the moment if you value your money and your health.

Strumms

ED E wrote: »

Nope.


Herd immunity doesn't kick in until around 85% of the vaccinatable population. We won't be near there until autumn. Summers a gonner.

I’d tend to agree, probably August/September before this is history...as in not a mask in sight, no news bulletins covidcovidcovidcovid.... not a second thought of what you can or need to get / do before you leave your house, constantly observing every fûcker around you..

Ferris_Bueller

ED E wrote: »

Nope.


Herd immunity doesn't kick in until around 85% of the vaccinatable population. We won't be near there until autumn. Summers a gonner.

Okay so maybe we won't be back to 'normal' by Autumn but I still think it's pessimistic to say the summer is a gonner. Herd immunity might have not kicked in by June but if we have almost 50% of the country done by then including the vulnerable and front line workers then surely cases and severe cases most importantly will be very low.

As others have said, last June we had cases down to the single digits at times. A year on with half the country vaccinated and the vulnerable vaccinated surely it means less cases?

You could turn out to be right, not the first time I would be wrong during this pandemic, but I can't see how we get to summer and things aren't looking significantly better.

Sam Hain

Cerveza wrote: »

This time next year the only corona will be the band and the bottles,

Well that's grim , think I'd prefer the virus to either of those.

mohawk

Ferris_Bueller wrote: »

Okay so maybe we won't be back to 'normal' by Autumn but I still think it's pessimistic to say the summer is a gonner. Herd immunity might have not kicked in by June but if we have almost 50% of the country done by then including the vulnerable and front line workers then surely cases and severe cases most importantly will be very low.

As others have said, last June we had cases down to the single digits at times. A year on with half the country vaccinated and the vulnerable vaccinated surely it means less cases?

You could turn out to be right, not the first time I would be wrong during this pandemic, but I can't see how we get to summer and things aren't looking significantly better.

My thinking would be similar to yours. We managed to ease restrictions last summer while cases were low. That was with no vaccine.

I would be thinking we are in level 5 now until after Paddy’s Day. The cases will have fallen by then but it depends on how many cases still in hospital. The patients that end up in ICU especially are admitted for weeks.
Any reopening will be gradual meanwhile more and more of the vulnerable groups will be getting vaccinated. The more vulnerable people that are vaccinated should reduce hospital admissions and most importantly deaths.

By summer the weather will be warm enough to socialise outside which is important when trying to reduce risk of admission.
I think most of us can handle another summer of no matches, concerts, nightclubs etc.

We have decided we aren’t even going to consider going abroad. Booked for a staycation this summer. Free Cancellation. Will reschedule it if needed but for now it’s something to look forward to.

2021 isn’t a write off but it will likely be March/April before level 5 is eased.

weldoninhio

Deleted User wrote: »

Nope i was just a dick, tbh, but appreciated!

I didn't think you wrote anything wrong. It was a decent counter point to the constant dirge of depression we normally get on these threads.

My year hasn't been too bad either. Been working in the office all the way through, so got out of the house daily, was able to meet friends all through the summer for beers on the beach/harbour, the weather was brilliant. Once it got cooler, we'd meet up on a Friday evening in the park across the road from the local who was doing take away pints. I miss live music, and travelling, but other than that, and Xmas being cancelled, I haven't had a bad year.

funnydoggy

We'll be out of this before herd immunity kicks in. Once those at highest risk are protected and the hospitals have capacity, we're going to be in a much better place. The government won't wait for 75%+ of the population to be vaccinated.

JoseJones

Kintarō Hattori wrote: »

The misus seems to think she'll be able to travel to Poland this year. She's aiming for May I think. I can't see it happening myself.

What's stopping her from going before May? Honest question, not trying to be smart!

whisky_galore

Judging by the glacial rollout of vaccine by HSE it probably is.

funnydoggy

whisky_galore wrote: »

Judging by the glacial rollout of vaccine by HSE it probably is.

#2 in Europe?


Okay..

j@utis

Of course, it is, most of it that's for sure, except few summer months when viruses are naturally less prevailent.

whisky_galore

funnydoggy wrote: »

#2 in Europe?


Okay..

Like saying Spain is colder than on a given day in Ireland type reporting.

SheepsClothing

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

My bet is broadly level 5 to late March and level 3 to June or July with a level 2 July August and level 1 for the rest of the year.

This is a fairly realistic timeline for people to be working off. I suspect it may be slightly quicker, but everything open (with limitations) by second half of the summer seems right.

is_that_so

whisky_galore wrote: »

Judging by the glacial rollout of vaccine by HSE it probably is.

Any actual evidence of that, bearing in mind the glacial supply of vaccines?

Tenzor07

I think there's a lot of optimism here on this thread..

I would say the first 6 to 8 months of this year will be almost the same as it was from April to July 2020... very little movement with regards to "non-essential" retail and movements being allowed.. the country was kept Semi-Closed during summer 2020 when we had a few dozen cases and no deaths... so i don't think Holohan will be recommending easing restrictions as "quickly" as last year...

Leo the Leak stated

As well as that, we would anticipate that social distancing - along with restrictions on gatherings - will remain in place for many months yet, probably into the Summer and Autumn, unfortunately. It's going to be a slow reopening with the ability to halt or reverse that, if needs be," he said.