Is 2021 a write off?

sydthebeat

Once EP 2021 goes ahead I'll be happy

funnydoggy

Tenzor07 wrote: »

I think there's a lot of optimism here on this thread..

I would say the first 6 to 8 months of this year will be almost the same as it was from April to July 2020... very little movement with regards to "non-essential" retail and movements being allowed.. the country was kept Semi-Closed during summer 2020 when we had a few dozen cases and no deaths... so i don't think Holohan will be recommending easing restrictions as "quickly" as last year...

Leo the Leak stated

I see your point but this time we'll have the high risk people vaccinated. I can't see this summer being the same as last summer.

Ohmeha

It's all about whether we can keep a lid on cases and get 70%-80% of the population immune. If we achieve this by October then the process of returning to normality will kick off

Any talk of normality and nightclubs open in the summer is total delusion and denial about this virus

Tenzor07

funnydoggy wrote: »

I see your point but this time we'll have the high risk people vaccinated. I can't see this summer being the same as last summer.

There's one thing I've not seen... maybe others on here have..

A Government roadmap for exiting restrictions?

Something which shows projections for vaccinations in 2021, case numbers/R Numbers that are needed to achieve say opening of Churches, sports events(non-"elite"), pubs... Something to give people hope for, something to show the population that there is light at the end of the tunnel instead of the daily positive case count, the numbers in hospitals, the doom and gloom from Holohan...

funnydoggy

Tenzor07 wrote: »

There's one thing I've not seen... maybe others on here have..

A Government roadmap for exiting restrictions?

Something which shows projections for vaccinations in 2021, case numbers/R Numbers that are needed to achieve say opening of Churches, sports events(non-"elite"), pubs... Something to give people hope for, something to show the population that there is light at the end of the tunnel instead of the daily positive case count, the numbers in hospitals, the doom and gloom from Holohan...

I'd love that, you're 100% right!

denismc

Doing the math, to get half the population vaccinated by July we need to be doing over 100k vaccinations a week.
We are currently doing under 40k a week so it will interesting to see if the HSE can up the rate of roll-out otherwise it's going be another long year.

CIARAN_BOYLE

denismc wrote: »

Doing the math, to get half the population vaccinated by July we need to be doing over 100k vaccinations a week.
We are currently doing under 40k a week so it will interesting to see if the HSE can up the rate of roll-out otherwise it's going be another long year.

I think your math is wrong.

Considering that we did about 1.4 million adult flu vaccines in about 6 weeks last year I'm sure we have the capacity.

denismc

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I think your math is wrong.

Considering that we did about 1.4 million adult flu vaccines in about 6 weeks last year I'm sure we have the capacity.

I don't think there were any supply or logistics issues with the flu vaccine, also there seems to be a bit more paperwork attached to the Covid vaccine, and the fact that there is 2 shots required adds more problems.
But I hope you are right and there is a pick up in vaccination rates, the next few weeks will reveal a lot.

dogleapguy

Just for reference, the UK expects to have all over 50s vaccinated (probably first dose only, it doesn't make clear) by end Q1, so Ireland will probably be there or thereabouts. Apparently the first dose slashes the hospital admission rates, which is why the UK have chosen this approach.

People on this thread are thinking of much later dates for this stage of vaccination in Ireland, but it probably isn't going to be the case.

KrustyUCC

Tenzor07 wrote: »

There's one thing I've not seen... maybe others on here have..

A Government roadmap for exiting restrictions?

Something which shows projections for vaccinations in 2021, case numbers/R Numbers that are needed to achieve say opening of Churches, sports events(non-"elite"), pubs... Something to give people hope for, something to show the population that there is light at the end of the tunnel instead of the daily positive case count, the numbers in hospitals, the doom and gloom from Holohan...

No chance the government will commit to that unfortunately but it would be something good to see

KrustyUCC

denismc wrote: »

Doing the math, to get half the population vaccinated by July we need to be doing over 100k vaccinations a week.
We are currently doing under 40k a week so it will interesting to see if the HSE can up the rate of roll-out otherwise it's going be another long year.

You can't vaccinate 100,000 a week if you're not getting 100,000 vaccines a week

Vaccinations will depend on getting the vaccines into the country first

AstraZeneca being approved in Europe will be a huge step forward

Might even help reduce times as well

Luke O'Neill explains how AstraZeneca vaccine could speed up vaccination times

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-explains-how-astrazeneca-vaccine-could-speed-up-vaccination-times-1134899

Icepick

It won't be a write off if you don't stake your life on craving for things in the future and worrying about things that haven't even happened.

Hector Savage

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f

This has been coming for a while, BBC saying will take years to get back to normal, can just visualise the "journalist" ripping the skeleton outta himself as he typed that ..

Theboinkmaster

Danno wrote: »

Anyone booking flights would deserve to lose their money, in fact anyone booking a holiday abroad deserves to be fined for stupidity.

The fools who departed last summer brought the virus back here and are directly responsible for the Sept-Oct surge. Ditto for the idiots flying home for Christmas 2020.

This is on you.

None of that is correct.

Sept-Oct surge was a combination of people coming back from summer hols (country was more sparse with people distributed), going back to school, hospitality re-opening and weather driving more people indoors.

Not from people going abroad.

As regards people flying back Christmas week - i do agree on that one, very wreck less IMO.

As regards booking holidays this summer:

July 2020 we had very low cases - July 2021 we will have 50% at least of the population (and the most important half) vaccinated and be 1 year on dealing with the pandemic and have learned a lot.

It's going to be a great summer and I can't wait to get to the Algarve with my family.

I'll book my flights in March when things are more certain.

I've paid €1,500 hotel deposit (to save the same amount in winter sale by booking early) and if i lose that I think we will all have much bigger problems this summer, so immaterial cost IMO. Risk I'm easily willing to take.

Have an awesome day

Mister Vain

What about all the anti-vaxxers?

rdhma

Some of them will cop on when they find they can't travel or avail of certain services or don't meet conditions of employment.

is_that_so

rdhma wrote: »

Some of them will cop on when they find they can't travel or avail of certain services or don't meet conditions of employment.

We won't be doing that how alluring it is to some people.

Danno

boege wrote: »

You are out by a factor of 10 - total departures plus arrivals to Spain in Q3 2020 was about 150,000 people, which is about 75,000 people travelled. There was nearly as many flights to Poland. Overall numbers were down 87.5% on Q3 2019. Spain was in a mess last summer and very few travelled. The most popular Spanish destination was Malaga and the total out and back figure for Q3 2020 was 11,000.

The vast number of people travelling in and out of the country were traveling to and from UK (~370k). My suspicion is that many of these were work related and I would not be surprised if we find that the Spanish virus arrived to Ireland via the UK. It was the dominant strain in the UK -way more so than here.

Ref: CSO data.

It doesn't matter whether the Spanish variant (not Spanish virus) came here via Spain, UK, or U-fookin-ganda. It came here by the plane loads by people travelling unnecessarily.
The CSO data says well more than 670k travelled through the airports - 1.45 million in fact: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/as/aviationstatisticsquarter32020/

Dr. Bre

Strap yourself in it’s going to be another rollercoaster of a year !

Micky 32

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Strap yourself in it’s going to be another rollercoaster of a year !

For the last time thankfully.

GazzaL

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Strap yourself in it’s going to be another rollercoaster of a year !

Rollercoaster would suggest ups and downs, but by the looks of things, it'll be all downs unless you're in an industry that is benefitting from lockdowns or a politician or civil servant

alentejo

I think at this stage, ensuring that Autumn/ winter 2021 is not the s& i7 fest that this winter has been

Ohmeha

Ohmeha wrote: »

It's all about whether we can keep a lid on cases and get 70%-80% of the population immune. If we achieve this by October then the process of returning to normality will kick off

Any talk of normality and nightclubs open in the summer is total delusion and denial about this virus

Agree with you about nightclubs not being open in the summer. Doubt we'll see them re-open this year. I can't see us reaching that level of immunity in 2021. I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get to 50%. Think a winter lockdown will be the norm going forward. It worked wonders for the hospitals for most of the 2020.

rdhma wrote: »

Some of them will cop on when they find they can't travel or avail of certain services or don't meet conditions of employment.

No jab, no job? That'll be quite the windfall for the legal profession. Travel won't be an issue either.

GazzaL

tara2k wrote: »

Agree with you about nightclubs not being open in the summer. Doubt we'll see them re-open this year. I can't see us reaching that level of immunity in 2021. I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get to 50%. Think a winter lockdown will be the norm going forward. It worked wonders for the hospitals for most of the 2020.



No jab, no job? That'll be quite the windfall for the legal profession. Travel won't be an issue either.

We should deport publicans and bar staff. Shut down the economy for 3 months every year. What a ****ing country.

GazzaL

GazzaL wrote: »

We should deport publicans and bar staff. Shut down the economy for 3 months every year. What a ****ing country.

Deport, nah, give them a few Euro and tax them on it the year after. A lockdown every winter would be cheaper than fixing the HSE.

Silentcorner

WE should probably just write off every year from now on...our "betters" have figured out a way to stop people from dying...ICU beds are expensive so we should just eliminate them altogether.. more money for Management types to tell us how badly behaved we all are from doing things like, you know, venturing out!!!!

If we can go back to normal with 100 deaths per winter I think a large majority will take that.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

If we can go back to normal with 100 deaths per winter I think a large majority will take that.

Sure between 200-500 die of the flu every year and nobody bats an eyelid.

AdamD

Do people genuinely think the younger population will adhere to social distancing when everyone over 60 is vaccinated?

If everything remains shut through summer, it'll be replaced by house parties.

LessOutragePlz

niallo27 wrote: »

Sure between 200-500 die of the flu every year and nobody bats an eyelid.

Don't worry there'll be someone along to tell you about how much deadlier covid is compared to the flu or about how there's loads of people out there suffering from long covid.