Is 2021 a write off?

barney shamrock

Haven't been away for the last 3 years so was hoping to book a trip to New York for late November-early December.
Really not sure about it now as even if we are vaccinated I dont think a sufficient amount will be in America.

Dickie10

i think i heard already a few weeks back body and soul festival in mid june is cancelled, i wouldnt think Electric Picnic will make it.

landofthetree

@MichealLehane
· 1h
At the end of this week there’s a feeling in political circles that few if any international tourists will visit the country this summer, finance supports likely to continue, while wet pubs may not get to re-open until autumn.

niallo27

AdamD wrote: »

Do people genuinely think the younger population will adhere to social distancing when everyone over 60 is vaccinated?

If everything remains shut through summer, it'll be replaced by house parties.

It will be sooner than the summer, it's not practical or realistic to expect the younger generation to stop living for this long and tbh I don't blame them one bit.

BringBackMick

landofthetree wrote: »

@MichealLehane
· 1h
At the end of this week there’s a feeling in political circles that few if any international tourists will visit the country this summer, finance supports likely to continue, while wet pubs may not get to re-open until autumn.

Herein lies the problem, it sounds like groundhog day.

Open up again in autumn when the light is reduced, we return to indoors, our hospitals will face crushing surge in non-covid related illnesses put off due to the epidemic, possibly a return of the traditional flu and covid...

They need to look and examine last summer.

COVID is a seasonal virus, there is no reason not to open up society from May through August even if vaccine uptake is below 40% of the population

Let's hope they don't make the same mistake

GazzaL

BringBackMick wrote: »

Herein lies the problem, it sounds like groundhog day.

Open up again in autumn when the light is reduced, we return to indoors, our hospitals will face crushing surge in non-covid related illnesses put off due to the epidemic, possibly a return of the traditional flu and covid...

They need to look and examine last summer.

COVID is a seasonal virus, there is no reason not to open up society from May through August even if vaccine uptake is below 40% of the population

Let's hope they don't make the same mistake

:pac: With the eejits we have in charge? They don't make any mistakes. Permanent lockdown =

Datacore

It’ll quite likely depend on a few factors:

1) Speed of vaccination. That’s looking pretty positively optimistic. Speed should ramp up as production capacity widens and as new vaccines are signed off by the EMA.

The U.K. is out in front at the moment because they took a bet on AstraZeneca without completion of the same levels of checks. Luckily it has worked without issue. It was one hell of a gamble though.

2) That the virus mutations aren’t huge setbacks. There’s a possibility that we end up with vaccine resistant viruses which would mean having to rework the mRNA vaccines, but it could add months to the schedule.

That to me, is why we need to be very serious about long distance travel. If we could at least get to a “covid free”, vaccinated status at least we could begin functioning and add travel corridors to places with the same status.

Throwing caution to the wind too rapidly with this could mean resetting the clock, which would be a total disaster both socially ans economically.

Danno

BringBackMick wrote: »

Open up again in autumn when the light is reduced, we return to indoors, our hospitals will face crushing surge in non-covid related illnesses put off due to the epidemic, possibly a return of the traditional flu and covid...

This. Nobody is taking stock of how all our immune systems are basically retarded at this stage from not being out and about mixing.

I would hazard a guess that the rise of U65s in hospitals now with Covid is down to weak immune systems. Had the same cohort of U65s caught Covid last April, they wouldn't have darkened the doors of the local hospital.

Silentcorner

Danno wrote: »

This. Nobody is taking stock of how all our immune systems are basically retarded at this stage from not being out and about mixing.

I would hazard a guess that the rise of U65s in hospitals now with Covid is down to weak immune systems. Had the same cohort of U65s caught Covid last April, they wouldn't have darkened the doors of the local hospital.

I'd feel the same, if you catch a virus, you'd want to catch it at a time of the year when your immune system is at it's strongest....from May to Sept...

And if it is true that viral loads are a mitigating factor, then surely catching out in the open on a street is the best place to catch it...why mask up...do people really think that we avoid the flu for the best part of flu season every year, or that our immune system has learned to cope with it by small viral loads that you simply cannot avoid.

A government cannot control a virus endemic in a population
A person will not avoid contact with a virus that is endemic in a population

It's not the virus that is seasonal, our collective immune systems are just weaker depending on the season. (I know, same thing really)

Danno

Silentcorner wrote: »

It's not the virus that is seasonal, our collective immune systems are just weaker depending on the season. (I know, same thing really)

There is something in what you're saying.

It brings me to a thought regarding "poor-ol-Gran" in the nursing home that sadly passed away in Winter 2020 owing to the seasonal flu/Covid-19.

What people are failing to realise is that if poor-ol-Gran caught the seasonal flu in say 2016 and beat it, ditto for 2017, 2018 and 2019 before sadly being just short of strength to limp through 2020 then it was tragic.

If Gran had avoided flu in 2016 and perhaps 2017 too then 2018 would have popped her clogs owing to a weakened immune system from not having the strength built up from previous seasons.

Saving lives and all that malark is put in the patsy file when you think of it like that.

Richard Hillman

landofthetree wrote: »

@MichealLehane
· 1h
At the end of this week there’s a feeling in political circles that few if any international tourists will visit the country this summer, finance supports likely to continue, while wet pubs may not get to re-open until autumn.

Those airports will still be as open as ever. The only reason why traffic was down was because the airlines stopped running.

Silentcorner

Danno wrote: »

There is something in what you're saying.

It brings me to a thought regarding "poor-ol-Gran" in the nursing home that sadly passed away in Winter 2020 owing to the seasonal flu/Covid-19.

What people are failing to realise is that if poor-ol-Gran caught the seasonal flu in say 2016 and beat it, ditto for 2017, 2018 and 2019 before sadly being just short of strength to limp through 2020 then it was tragic.

If Gran had avoided flu in 2016 and perhaps 2017 too then 2018 would have popped her clogs owing to a weakened immune system from not having the strength built up from previous seasons.

Saving lives and all that malark is put in the patsy file when you think of it like that.

Well, the flu rips through the population every season without fail with 2 surges, often different strains and takes a load of people with weak immune systems...each strain takes about 6 weeks to do it's damage and then the storm has passed so to speak.

If you look at the last 10 months, we got it in March (typically late in the flu season, but as it is a new virus there was a heap of weak or unexposed immune systems) ...where we saw an increase in hospitisations and ICU occupancy, THE only metric that matters (as weak immune systems are already either in hospital/care homes and typically don't receive treatment in ICU)...

The hospitalisation and ICU occupancy rates were stable from Sept to Dec...then it ripped through us again where we are now, should be past us in a couple of weeks.

But testing healthy people and counting them as cases is the maddest thing I have ever seen in my life!!!!

twowheelsonly

BringBackMick wrote: »

They need to look and examine last summer.

COVID is a seasonal virus, there is no reason not to open up society from May through August even if vaccine uptake is below 40% of the population

Let's hope they don't make the same mistake

Being a new virus I don't think it's seasonal yet. You only have to look at the Southern Hemisphere to see that it's still rampant in places. South Africa had 15,000 new cases today and they're in the middle of their summer. Brazil had 70,000 new cases today.

Silentcorner wrote: »

The hospitalisation and ICU occupancy rates were stable from Sept to Dec...then it ripped through us again where we are now, should be past us in a couple of weeks.

But testing healthy people and counting them as cases is the maddest thing I have ever seen in my life!!!!

ICU (and hospital in general) cases started creeping up again around the end of October.

If a healthy person tests positive then it's obviously not madness. I know a 49 year old woman who died from it in the last fortnight who would have been regarded as a healthy person up to that point.
Loads in their 40s' and 50s' are suffering badly from it. Others thankfully seem to brush it off but even a lot of those seem to be complaining of loss of smell/taste and extreme tiredness. It'll be interesting to see what the longer term effects are going to be like for some people.

Coybig_

landofthetree wrote: »

@MichealLehane
· 1h
At the end of this week there’s a feeling in political circles that few if any international tourists will visit the country this summer, finance supports likely to continue, while wet pubs may not get to re-open until autumn.

They can jog the absolute f*ck on if they think this is going to be accepted.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated my compliance with this nonsense is over.

Cerveza

Coybig_ wrote: »

They can jog the absolute f*ck on if they think this is going to be accepted.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated my compliance with this nonsense is over.

Tony Little hitler will want to govern all our lives for this year. He says jump and the government says how high.

GazzaL

Any sign of NPHET addressing the obesity epidemic which increases the risk of illness and complications not just from COVID-19 but countless other illnesses? Or are NPHET still promoting booze and takeaways as essential? NPHET even shut gyms in January which is peak membership time.

Richard Hillman

GazzaL wrote: »

Any sign of NPHET addressing the obesity epidemic which increases the risk of illness and complications not just from COVID-19 but countless other illnesses? Or are NPHET still promoting booze and takeaways as essential? NPHET even shut gyms in January which is peak membership time.

They can set up a new NGO to address the post covid issues. Lots of government funding of course, lots of new nanny state taxes, lovely NGO salary packages

basill

No no no yo are bypassing the due democratic process that must take place. First will be a review, lead by an ex judge. They will then co-opt the great and the good and drag it out for a few years. If they can get away with it then publish something inconclusive that necessitates another more far reaching review. Then a committee will need to be formed to consider the findings of these reviews and possibly requiring another more detailed review on certain aspects which are considered worthy. Only then will the government of the day be able to set up a new quango and promote the many mandarins that kept the show on the road all this time.

barney shamrock

barney shamrock wrote: »

Haven't been away for the last 3 years so was hoping to book a trip to New York for late November-early December.
Really not sure about it now as even if we are vaccinated I dont think a sufficient amount will be in America.

The biggest risk to your trip is that the entry restrictions will still be in place. Business travel will open up in a few months. Not so sure about tourism.

Datacore wrote: »

The U.K. is out in front at the moment because they took a bet on AstraZeneca without completion of the same levels of checks. Luckily it has worked without issue. It was one hell of a gamble though.

What checks did they not complete? From my understanding, their non-EU status allowed them to accelerate the process. They didn't have to wait on formal approval from the EU, for example.

Coybig_ wrote: »

They can jog the absolute f*ck on if they think this is going to be accepted.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated my compliance with this nonsense is over.

What are you going to do? The shops, bar, restaurants etc will be shut.

whisky_galore

Cerveza wrote: »

Tony Little hitler will want to govern all our lives for this year. He says jump and the government says how high.

That doesn't always happen but that doesn't suit your hatred of the man.

c68zapdsm5i1ru

Cerveza wrote: »

Tony Little hitler will want to govern all our lives for this year. He says jump and the government says how high.

Pity they didn't listen to him before Christmas.

c68zapdsm5i1ru

Coybig_ wrote: »

They can jog the absolute f*ck on if they think this is going to be accepted.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated my compliance with this nonsense is over.

Why is it nonsense?

timeToLive

Avianna Immense Teeth wrote: »

Why is it nonsense?

After the vulnerable people are vaccinated why wouldn't we open up?

Melanchthon

Avianna Immense Teeth wrote: »

Pity they didn't listen to him before Christmas.

Its because they listened to him that we are in this mess with possibly the worlds highest spike.
He kept Ireland in a tight lockdown all through the late autumn up to Christmas, this following from not fully unlocking the Dublin and some other countries.
Then they expect people to not visit and socialize over Christmas, go talk to a European person they have been able to live at least a bit in 2020, Ireland has had the longest time in internal lockdown in the world from what I have seen.

Holohan would have the country being continuously restricted which is against human nature. Remember though when people were complaining about Cheltenham and cancelling Rugby matches Dr Holohan was indoors at a conference in Dublin with 500 people people from 50 countries talking about the evils of Alcohol. Should give a idea of the mans priorities.

timeToLive

timeToLive wrote: »

After the vulnerable people are vaccinated why wouldn't we open up?

You need to define vulnerable. Are people in their forties with no underlying conditions vulnerable? People who fall into that category have been hospitalised due to Covid. I would love to know what NPHET's definition is. It'd give us a good idea of what lies ahead in 2021.

turbot

Economic damage aside, it seems unlikely things will go back to normal during 2021.

The vaccine is like the flu shot - reducing risks of harmful severity - its not a life inoculation.
Distribution is an issue and many people are stating they'll refuse the vaccine anyway.
We have some treatments that lessen severity - but we're not there yet.
Given the number of people infected globally, the risks of tricky mutations are real.
Brexit complicates this all too.

So its worth assuming that major facets of "life as what once was normal" - such as easy travel, large group events, clubs/pubs/festivals, safe socialising without masks - aren't returning any time soon. If they do, it will be a bonus.

So instead of waiting for:
- Gyms to open to get fit
- Jobs to resume to make money
- Nightclubs / bars to open to date

... find ways to adapt now. If we have some mini festivals by q3 2021, treat those as a bonus for as things stand, they seem unlikely.

nj27

We'll probably see frequent and lengthy lockdowns punctuated by periods of lesser restrictions (still far from normal) until towards the end of 2022/into 2023.

Micky 32

turbot wrote: »

Economic damage aside, it seems unlikely things will go back to normal during 2021.

The vaccine is like the flu shot - reducing risks of harmful severity - its not a life inoculation.
Distribution is an issue and many people are stating they'll refuse the vaccine anyway.
We have some treatments that lessen severity - but we're not there yet.
Given the number of people infected globally, the risks of tricky mutations are real.
Brexit complicates this all too.

So its worth assuming that major facets of "life as what once was normal" - such as easy travel, large group events, clubs/pubs/festivals, safe socialising without masks - aren't returning any time soon. If they do, it will be a bonus.

So instead of waiting for:
- Gyms to open to get fit
- Jobs to resume to make money
- Nightclubs / bars to open to date

... find ways to adapt now. If we have some mini festivals by q3 2021, treat those as a bonus for as things stand, they seem unlikely.

You must be a hoot at parties. Thankfully what you posted is poppycock. The boards experts amuse me these days.

BTW the vaccine isn’t like the ‘flu shot’. For a start the vaccine has a better efficacy than the flu vaccine.

turbot

turbot wrote: »

Economic damage aside, it seems unlikely things will go back to normal during 2021.

The vaccine is like the flu shot - reducing risks of harmful severity - its not a life inoculation.
Distribution is an issue and many people are stating they'll refuse the vaccine anyway.
We have some treatments that lessen severity - but we're not there yet.
Given the number of people infected globally, the risks of tricky mutations are real.
Brexit complicates this all too.

So its worth assuming that major facets of "life as what once was normal" - such as easy travel, large group events, clubs/pubs/festivals, safe socialising without masks - aren't returning any time soon. If they do, it will be a bonus.

So instead of waiting for:
- Gyms to open to get fit
- Jobs to resume to make money
- Nightclubs / bars to open to date

... find ways to adapt now. If we have some mini festivals by q3 2021, treat those as a bonus for as things stand, they seem unlikely.

80-90% of deaths and hospitalizations occur in those over the age of 70. Once those have been vaccinated, it clearly opens the door to a loosening of restrictions.

As the vaccine is novel mRNA-based, it means it can be easily modified within weeks in case any new strains of COVID-19 pop-up.

True, the virus will lurk around and hospitalize people, but so do other viruses each year. That's the level of risk society is willing to accept, and the same will also apply to COVID-19 in time.

Once the end of April comes, we should see an enormous impact of the effect of the vaccine - and with that, a political and necessary demand to loosen restrictions.

Other European countries are likely to un-lock soon, setting the example and taking the risk. Holohan will be advocating for severe restrictions until the very last possible day once other European countries have given him the evidence of what he wants to see, but without taking an ounce of risk himself.

Neames

I think I'm lucky to still have a job. I also am lucky that my employer permits remote working.

My partner is working on the frontline as a nurse and has received her first vaccination.

Our daughter is healthy and is receiving an education albeit through remote learning.

We try and make the most of everything in that we enjoy the small things. The bigger things like getting on a plane for a holiday can wait for another year.

I think we should avoid perceiving 2021 as a write off. Although I will admit this is hard sometimes.