Is 2021 a write off?

DulchieLaois

Now that the hospitality industry has been blamed for the latest strike, what will be blamed next for the high level of cases cause we will be 1-3k daily for d next month ?

funnydoggy

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Covid 0 is the only way out now that'll give us a normal summer. Political will for it isn't there unfortunately.

Zero Covid is unrealistic.

Irish Steve

DulchieLaois wrote: »

Now that the hospitality industry has been blamed for the latest strike, what will be blamed next for the high level of cases cause we will be 1-3k daily for d next month ?

The following is a quote from RTE web site.https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0120/1190840-coronavirus-ireland/

Michael Martin, talking about the recent spike in numbers.

Earlier, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the Government has "broadly" followed advice from the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET).
He said that 6,000 Covid-19 cases a day, which occurred recently, was "not predicted by anyone".
The Taoiseach said the rise in cases was caused by seasonality, the new variant and added that "undoubtedly socialisation is a factor".

He said there were "many super-spreader events that are nothing to do with hospitality".

So, which is it? Are RTE right, or are you right, or are you just trolling to wind people up?

Coybig_

Wow, another acnowledgement toward the seasonality of the virus by a government official.

Makes sense to keep hospitality closed until June then! By which point all vulnerable will have been vaccinated and plenty more after, in the middle of Summer, while we inevitably have 4 or 5 cases a day and a finger wagging Tony telling everyone how concerned he is.

Mr. Karate

Coybig_ wrote: »

Wow, another acnowledgement toward the seasonality of the virus by a government official.

Makes sense to keep hospitality closed until June then! By which point all vulnerable will have been vaccinated and plenty more after, in the middle of Summer, while we inevitably have 4 or 5 cases a day and a finger wagging Tony telling everyone how concerned he is.

Problem is that people have no faith in Government anymore. They'll keep finding some excuse to keep locking down. Reasonably then we should be open in Spring and maybe have some restrictions during Winter, but **** that ****. Tony loves him some lockdowns. Damn the consequences because he and the rest of the cowards in the Dail won't be left holding the bill for all of this [supposedly these lockdowns are costing us over €600 million a day]They'll it the tab at the feet of us "peasants".

aido79

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Problem have no faith in Government anymore. They'll keep finding some excuse to keep locking down. Reasonably then we should be open in Spring and maybe have some restrictions during Winter, but **** that ****. Tony loves him some lockdowns. Damn the consequences because he and the rest of the cowards in the Dail won't be left holding the bill for all of this [supposedly these lockdowns are costing us over €600 million a day]They'll it the tab at the feet of us "peasants".

That's nonsense. People who have no faith in a government don't vote for them come election time so why would they continue to risk losing public support by locking down unless necessary?
They'll lose a lot more support if there's not enough beds in hospitals for covid and non covid patients and people die unnecessarily as a result.

What's your solution?

aido79

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Nonsense

How do we get to zero covid?

aido79

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Strict lockdown for 6 weeks ( we'll be in lockdown until April at least by all accounts may aswell do it properly)
Airport quarantine for incoming travellers for 14 days
Get cases to low double digits and reopen from there. Should be able to track and trace any outbreak from those kinds of numbers. People have no interest in listening to the suggestion ( I was the same). Pretty clear this is the only way forward as yoyos are pointless. Vaccine effects won't be felt til October so there'll be restrictions until September at least.
I was skeptical for long enough but I'm happy to admit I was wrong and these scientists were right all along. Something new needs to be given a try because the last 4 months have been farcical
https://twitter.com/ISAGCOVID19?s=09

Sounds like a great plan in theory but do you think Northern Ireland will commit to 14 day quarantine measures too? If they don't then anything we do is a waste of time.

SnuggyBear

It's a right off lads. I made a lot of progress in life the last few and it came to a crashing halt last march.

GazzaL

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Strict lockdown for 6 weeks ( we'll be in lockdown until April at least by all accounts may aswell do it properly)
Airport quarantine for incoming travellers for 14 days
Get cases to low double digits and reopen from there. Should be able to track and trace any outbreak from those kinds of numbers. People have no interest in listening to the suggestion ( I was the same). Pretty clear this is the only way forward as yoyos are pointless. Vaccine effects won't be felt til October so there'll be restrictions until September at least.
I was skeptical for long enough but I'm happy to admit I was wrong and these scientists were right all along. Something new needs to be given a try because the last 4 months have been farcical
https://twitter.com/ISAGCOVID19?s=09

Good luck sealing with the border.

Irish Steve

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Strict lockdown for 6 weeks ( we'll be in lockdown until April at least by all accounts may aswell do it properly)

We're already in lockdown now, so how would you change it, and more important, how would you ensure that EVERYONE complies with your new strategy?

Airport quarantine for incoming travellers for 14 days

Where do you suggest that's done, and using what facility, and how is is enforced?

Get cases to low double digits and reopen from there. Should be able to track and trace any outbreak from those kinds of numbers.

I think that's been tried, and as soon as it was relaxed, for whatever reason, the numbers came up again pretty quickly, so you need a different strategy urgently, if your ideas are going to work.

For zero covid to work, there will have to be a different approach to the very porous border with the North, and a complete change from using Ro Ro ferries to bring in essentials like food, and there isn't the capacity in the ports or on the ferries to do that.

Looks like we need a different strategy, and I don't have one.

aido79

aido79 wrote: »

Sounds like a great plan in theory but do you think Northern Ireland will commit to 14 day quarantine measures too? If they don't then anything we do is a waste of time.

the uk are introducing it/strongly examining it

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/17/arrivals-in-uk-could-be-asked-to-stay-in-quarantine-hotels-raab-says


I know relations arent great at min,but this would be a terrible mistake to not work together for mutual benefit of both islands

Barbara Tight Ram

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Strict lockdown for 6 weeks ( we'll be in lockdown until April at least by all accounts may aswell do it properly)
Airport quarantine for incoming travellers for 14 days
Get cases to low double digits and reopen from there. Should be able to track and trace any outbreak from those kinds of numbers. People have no interest in listening to the suggestion ( I was the same). Pretty clear this is the only way forward as yoyos are pointless. Vaccine effects won't be felt til October so there'll be restrictions until September at least.
I was skeptical for long enough but I'm happy to admit I was wrong and these scientists were right all along. Something new needs to be given a try because the last 4 months have been farcical
https://twitter.com/ISAGCOVID19?s=09

low digits is not zero covid. Last year there was one case in fab 29th and 3000 known cases in March. So we need to close borders for ever. To date only smallpox has been eradicated,

The virus will become endemic but not pandemic with a vaccinated population. And endemic is a low level background level of cases, but not zero covid.

Why do people keep saying that the vaccines don't stop transmission. In general vaccines definitely reduce transmission, there just isn't enough evidence yet to say it conclusively with these vaccines. But we have multiple vaccines and one of them probably will.

Also we won't need full lockdowns when the vaccinated get to a reasonable percentage of the population. if half the population is vaccinated then it doesn't mean the rate of increase slows by half, it can mean that a rate of increase falls to a rate of decrease. If the R0 value is < 2 then that is exactly what will happen.

When the cases were rising in October/November NPHET estimated an R0 value of 1.8. If half of all people were vaccinated then the R value would have been less than 1, cases would have fallen from a low value to even lower. That was a level 2/3 lockdown.

Once cases drop in summer then if we continue vaccinating we willl probably not need to go to level 5 again, or even level 3. Very large gaterhings of people will be prohibited until we see what happens next Christmas.

aido79

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

The talk over the weekend was UK would be doing that whether they will or not is another issue but should hopefully force our hand if they do.

I have my doubts that they will actually do it.

GazzaL

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

I'm only repeating what the experts have said re effects of vaccines

Thats the whole point of a different strategy. We cab have large gatherings way before Xmas if new policy is implemented along with vaccine rollout. Thiughts of sporting events and concerts etc in the summer sound great now if those in charge can be pushed into this.

As soon as borders re-open in your scenario, we're back to living with COVID. It's not going away. Get the vaccine rolled out and get the **** on with life.

aido79

[Deleted User] wrote: »

the uk are introducing it/strongly examining it

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/17/arrivals-in-uk-could-be-asked-to-stay-in-quarantine-hotels-raab-says


I know relations arent great at min,but this would be a terrible mistake to not work together for mutual benefit of both islands

Do you think they will actually do it? Have you any idea how many arrivals there are in the UK daily? I imagine it would add up to a huge number in quarantine after even the first round of 14 days are up.

I agree though it would be a mistake to not work together to get numbers down. I just see it more as a delay tactic than a solution.

Barbara Tight Ram

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

I'm only repeating what the experts have said re effects of vaccines

You are not repeating what the experts say if you think that they say that vaccines don't stop or reduce transmissions. What the experts are saying is that there is no evidence yet that these particular vaccines stop transmission, this is not the same as evidence that they don't. It is a cautionary statement so people don't abandon masks etc. However vaccine herd immunity has been achieved before, and is probably expected here.

This misreading is common, in a different thread somebody said that Covid immunity only lasted 5 months, because he had read a report on a trial that lasted 5 months. He took "at least 5 months" to mean "only 5 months."

Barbara Tight Ram

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Continue with the failed policy then. Great input

its not the same policy if people are vaccinated. Clearly.

GazzaL

Deleted User wrote: »

its not the same policy if people are vaccinated. Clearly.

It's also based in reality, rather than the fantasy that COVID will disappear off the face of the Earth.

patnor1011

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Strict lockdown for 6 weeks ( we'll be in lockdown until April at least by all accounts may aswell do it properly)
Airport quarantine for incoming travellers for 14 days
Get cases to low double digits and reopen from there. Should be able to track and trace any outbreak from those kinds of numbers. People have no interest in listening to the suggestion ( I was the same). Pretty clear this is the only way forward as yoyos are pointless. Vaccine effects won't be felt til October so there'll be restrictions until September at least.
I was skeptical for long enough but I'm happy to admit I was wrong and these scientists were right all along. Something new needs to be given a try because the last 4 months have been farcical
https://twitter.com/ISAGCOVID19?s=09

Are you for real?
Even during our strictest lockdown over a third of the workforce were out and about as if nothing was going on. They had to to keep the illusion of strict lockdown going. Then they returned from their jobs to home potentially exposing their families.
There is no version of strict lockdown that can work short of nailing every door but that can not happen. It worked for some districts or small cities in China but required a lot of Chinese police and army on the street who were ferried there from other parts of China. Then they spread it over back home.

People should not put the head in the sand regarding lockdowns. They did not work, in fact, it is speculated that they increase transmission as they force people to spend more time confined in small spaces.

Coybig_

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Who has said it'll disappear?

Because if it doesn't disappear, in your master :rolleyes: plan we will have to keep our borders shut permanently?

Because if there is Covid out there, and you want zero Covid, then the only way to make sure the island has 0 covid cases is to keep the border shut.

Back to wonderland with you, you might find another fairytale there.

johnboy1298

Barbara Tight Ram wrote: »

Continue with the failed policy then. Great input

It's not like he's wrong, that's the government plan.

Zero corona isn't possible anymore, if a travel ban and a closed border came into force in summer it may have been do-able but that's long gone. The buy in isn't there anymore to push the numbers that low. Enforcement is focused on 5k rule which achieves very little and economic impact of shutting borders for long enough to get to zero would be huge.

Get the vaccine out there ASAP and get on with life. That is the only game in town. There are more and more getting on with life quietly as it is.

aido79

aido79 wrote: »

Do you think they will actually do it? Have you any idea how many arrivals there are in the UK daily? I imagine it would add up to a huge number in quarantine after even the first round of 14 days are up.

I agree though it would be a mistake to not work together to get numbers down. I just see it more as a delay tactic than a solution.

I think they will,their in dire straits right now,alot worse than here.....nearly 2K dead today and the travel corridor closures ending soon

But you get the delay in,elimate it here,vaccinate population and stop it coming in via only letting vaccinated people in and quarantining the rest...by end of summer,the numbers quaramtineing should be down massively as every country ramps up vaccinations


Its fairly hard to expect all us to stay at home,make massive scrafices.....to just simply let it back into country again via airports/ferries

Coybig_

Coybig_ wrote: »

Because if it doesn't disappear, in your master :rolleyes: plan we will have to keep our borders shut permanently?

Because if there is Covid out there, and you want zero Covid, then the only way to make sure the island has 0 covid cases is to keep the border shut.

Back to wonderland with you, you might find another fairytale there.

14 days with no cases of community transmission is zero covid afaik??

GazzaL

Deleted User wrote: »

14 days with no cases of community transmission is zero covid afaik??

And that'd last for as long as you keep borders fully sealed and everyone under house arrest.

GazzaL

GazzaL wrote: »

And that'd last for as long as you keep borders fully sealed and everyone under house arrest.

or just allow only vaccinated people in

This hyperbole of house arrest is only formalising,whats supposed to be happening anyway



We have all the negative traits of zero covid with all these lockdowns and none of the benefits......snapchats from mates still in oz and nz are in stark contrast to here on NYE

Coybig_

Deleted User wrote: »

14 days with no cases of community transmission is zero covid afaik??

And?

What happens if we achieve "zero covid", open our borders and get a case?

Dickie10

Galway Races manager of course planning for full unrestricted crowds august bank holiday, tullamore show planning full access mid august too

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

I really hope to get away in August but something is telling me Tony wont be happy until 99.999999999999999% of our population is vaccinated and we`ll still be locked down for the summer.

I really hope it doesnt come to pass though.

Vive La Revolution!!

If that's the case.

Jinonatron

Lads zero covid isn’t happening. Even Taiwan has community transmission now and they are an island who sealed borders in December 2019.