Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120931665#Comment_120931665

There isn't going to be a period of normal politics after Trump. The past decade has absolutely shifted the Overton Window and it won't be shifting back just because Trump is gone.

It is now fact that you can lie and commit crimes and still remain in politics, the old consequences no longer apply and going forward a lot of dangerous people are going to take advantage of that fact.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937276#Comment_120937276

As well as I can say, it was not a foregone conclusion that charges were going to be brought at all.

In the eyes of those who believe Trimp to be egregiously the wrong , an unsuccessful prosecution might do more harm than good even if the dangers of no prosecution were also fraught with risk.

Maybe the imperative was to continue the investigation as long as possible to ensure that as much information as possible was gathered.

If it was thought there was the possibility of a "slam dunk " case, then the time given to preparing it might well seem worthwhile in retrospect.

It has been said that a guilty verdict may sink Trump politically whereas a non guilty verdict may have the opposite effect.

So decisions cannot be taken lightly even if the law says a prosecution may be advisable where there is a reasonable chance of conviction.

In this case the bar is probably a bit higher.

Personally I worry that Trump cultists may lie in order to get on the jury and so prevent a guilty verdict,but then to not prosecute even in the face of that possibility carries its own risk.

robinph

Personally I worry that Trump cultists may lie in order to get on the jury and so prevent a guilty verdict,but then to not prosecute even in the face of that possibility carries its own risk.

Someone that far gone to attempt to do such things would surely already have outed themselves through previous activities or social media postings.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937276#Comment_120937276

Because the US justice system is tied up by the rights of the citizen not to self-incriminate and those likely to provide best evidence against Trump were his staff and lawyers who fed him advice and papers that he was still president, though he had lost the election. The investigations had to find a way for federal lawyers to persuade those staff and lawyers to give witness testimony to corroborate, without self-incrimination and jail-time, what Trump's words and actions showed. Due to decisions from the bench, at least one Federal judge displayed a bias toward Trump in the Mar-A-Lago classified documents case.

amandstu

@robinph

"Someone that far gone to attempt to do such things would surely already have outed themselves through previous activities or social media postings."

How confident can we be about that when half the population are prepared to vote for Trump ?(of course,I want that to be true)

aloyisious

Listening to Trump last night when he was at the top of the stairs boarding his plane in Washington after his court hearing "I'm massively ahead of Biden in the polls" made me laugh, bigging himself up when the most optimistic poll for him has them level-pegging. There has to be fine-tuned polling done of all GOP party voters to get a more reliable result than that from Trump's mouth. I doubt if the GOP members kicked off committees because they voted to impeach Trump have vanished from the US.

duploelabs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120939218#Comment_120939218

Trump will only look at polls that favour him. I'm sure the one he's quoting the poll outside Bubbas bait and tackle shop that has more cigarette butts in his ashtray than Biden’s

aloyisious

If one is to believe Mr Lauro, Trump's defence lawyer, he thinks that when he cross-examines Mike Pence on the stand, Pence will confirm that Trump genuinely believed the election was stolen from him and that, along with the line that some lawyers on Trump's presidential team in the White House advised him the election was stolen from him, will be his defence against the indictments accusing him of interfering with the election and the related charges. Mr Lauro claims that Trump only wanted Pence to delay the certification of the election result until it could be investigated and proven to be fraudulent.

That means that if Pence testifies that Trump did not want a delay but a total refusal by Pence to certify the result, Trump will not be able to counter any further testimony from Pence, should any other former member of Trump's team have contacted him and asked him not to certify the result, or if anyone has made the mistake of contacting Pence in the meantime asking him to change his testimony to assist Trump's defence line.

I'm waiting to see/hear if judge Chutkan sitting on the Washington hearing orders Trump not to say or write about the character of the prosecutor or she herself on his website or elsewhere which tends toward character assassination or deliberate attempt outside the bounds of fair comment to provoke an angry response in order to wreck his trial, regardless of Trumps constitutional rights of free speech. Calling the prosecutor deranged is not fair comment in my book.

mm_surf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937699#Comment_120937699

And charges pertaining to the Jan 6th insurrection started March 2021.

M.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937595#Comment_120937595

Or as a correspondent to the online media has pointed out, The Republican majority in the senate merely because Trump is listed as a republican chose not to go along with the facts placed before them by the other party. I don't know if it would be worth asking if that majority then would have taken the same decision if the office-holder had been a democrat.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120947780#Comment_120947780

I hope they do try to run with that because it's a flawed defence as noted by Legal Eagle's review of the actual charges which relate to conspiracy and even if Trump believed that (which as noted in the video there are multiple witnesses highlighting how Trump appears to confirm he lost) does not matter. Funny thing is a lot of his defences have already been tested in court and been ruled against as part of the insurrection cases...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbIhNmoZLJQ

Leroy42

What his lawyers say in the media has nothing to do with the actual trial. Just like the show put on regarding the false ballots that we were presented in the weeks after the election, where Trump's lawyers confidently proclaimed that they had plenty of ironclad evidence of election fraud, these interviews are aimed purely at the public.

Trump knows he has very little hope of winning the legal arguments, so like with his attempt to overturn the election, he has to try to get some of the public on his side. And we see that even in this thread. 'The polls show that X% of Americans believe the charges are false' therefore he should be let away with it. As if public opinion has anything to do with the law.

So that is what all this is about. Nothing the lawyers say on these shows will have any impact on the trials, they will simply claim it was a performance, which it is. Trump is banking on the support of the public to get him away from the legal issues he has.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948250#Comment_120948250

Nice one Rudy, leaving a voice message to a a US Senator [presumably a Republican] with the specifics of what you want him/her to do and the reason/s you want him/her to do it [on behalf of Trump]. As it's on the indictment sheet against conspirator 1, it's plain that that senator provided the voice recording to the prosecutor naming the person who sent the request and the sender's voice is recognizable & identifiable. Now if only the other conspirators did the same/similar at the request of Trump and the prosecutor has the same clear documented evidence against them as well. One thing the US can be grateful for, is that the 1st in line to succeed the president declined to become a co-conspirator as requested by that president.

aloyisious

Judge Eileen Cannon [of the Florida Federal bench] within the past few hours today has questioned the legality of the CONTINUED use of a Washington DC grand jury in the Mar-A-Lago classified documents case which was before her separately as an obstruction case against Trump.

It's reported in various online media sources that she has formally dismissed the case she was hearing against Trump on Monday [today] and ordered the DOJ to explain the use of the DC jury and asked a co-defendant Walt Nauta to "weigh-in" on the issue.

The Justice Department “shall address the legal propriety of using an out-of-district grand jury proceeding to continue to investigate and/or to seek post-indictment hearings on matters pertinent to the instant indicted matter in this district,” she wrote.

It looks like [on the face of it] Judge Cannon is using her court being tasked to handle the obstruction case as a means to scupper the separate case against Trump in Washington, on the basis that there is a link between the two cases, given she has dismissed the Florida case against Trump.

aloyisious

Fulton County, Georgia, DA Fani Willis may be close to adding a 4th indictment to former president Trump's list. The county has put up barricades on the Court House road, closing it off from traffic.

The defamation case Trump submitted against the woman who is suing him in NY has been dismissed by the court it was submitted to. The Trump case was entered after the woman appeared on CNN discussing her claims against Trump.

Quin_Dub

Trump lawyers claiming that they want to move the Jan 6th case from D.C. to West Virginia so they can have a more "diverse" jury pool is objectively hilarious - West Virginia is 92% white.

When they say "Diverse" what they really mean is "White and voted for Trump".

aloyisious

Regretfully it look's like Trump will be the candidate of choice to represent their party in the 2024 election by GOP members and that he may be the person in charge of international relations with most of the other countries around the world. Still there's many a slip twixt cup and lip.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956201#Comment_120956201

Trump was always going to be the GOP candidate unless he is legally prevented from doing so.

Thus far , none of the indictments are for crimes that bar him from standing for office although that might change in the future as I don't think that Jack Smith is done yet in terms of charges.

So he will be on the ballot in 14/15 months time - The question is , will anyone that didn't vote for him the last time vote for him then?

It's really really hard to see how they would , but who knows.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956299#Comment_120956299

Or will less people vote for Biden(or alternative) than last time?

Will it be the economy that counts most?

If the anti Trump field magically dwindled to one ,who might beat him?

Not DeSantis thankfully.He is blessed with a sour personality and so unpopular on a basic level.

Maybe that guy with the Indian name.He has the smarts.

Would the GOP choose him?

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956830#Comment_120956830

Trump on the ballot greatly reduces the "I'm not going to bother voting" risk on the Democrat side I think.

He is a great motivator to get past any potential Biden lethargy or ennui.

Ramaswamy hasn't a hope - He's brown and he doesn't have a "Judeo-Christian heritage" (He's Hindu)- Not a chance the evangelicals pick him.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956830#Comment_120956830

Well GOP candidates also has the issue of Roe vs. Wade to deal with as the Ohio vote has shown is still live and hot issue for people a year later. Basically a majority disagrees with GOP on abortion stance and it's actually helped mobilize as an issue to remove GOP abortion laws that where implemented and Biden has mentioned it as a 2024 issue he'll drive. At the same time for GOP their hardcore voters require that they drive for harsher laws but that's far from a majority support on the issue creating a litimus test of purity again for their candidates.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956971#Comment_120956971

The Abortion issue will absolutely continue to be a drag on GOP voters.

The strict abortion laws being advocated by the Christian Nationalists in the GOP are universally unpopular and so far every time a State wide vote has been taken related to decreasing abortion rights it has been soundly defeated even in strongly GOP states and areas.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956971#Comment_120956971

Yes ,that was on my mind too.

But the economy should help as well you would have thought.

Unemployment at something like an all time low I think I heard.

Just saw this.There was a warrant for o search of Trump's twitter postings in Jan.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/09/politics/special-counsel-trump-twitter-search-warrant/index.html

Jack Smith will be his favourite now -)

aloyisious

It may be that the dislike for DeSantis Florida state policies, running alongside the anti-abortion policies of other GOP politicians, will help persuade those uncommitted people [who have seen what Trump is like on his best of days] to vote democrat. Those policies deprive people of actual existing services and rights, which should create a backlash. It's likely the best ally the democrats have now is Trump with his inability to stop lashing out at people he sees as a threat or disloyal to him, making him appear unstable.

One thing is certain, if Trump gets re-elected, he will probably make major changes to the present set of senior military officers. General Milley wont be around but his replacement General Brown [USAF] appointed by Biden, will be. Trump likes "yes" men as employees and advisors.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120957178#Comment_120957178

The economy is a tough one, you can argue its not in a bad place considering the circumstances of the world, but many people are out their hurting which gives Trump a nice opening.

Obama had a similar issue when he left, a lot of people felt it was not working for them so Trump with his simplistic solutions was able to appeal to them.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120958558#Comment_120958558

The abortion 6 week ban RDS signed in is clearly unpopular and it will hurt him at a national level although its interesting a few GOP governors were able to sign in similar legislation and storm the midterms most notably Kemp and Abbot.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966270#Comment_120966270

The Economy is a confusing one.

By every measure it's going really really well.

Employment up , Average wages are up and even Inflation is down to below 4% and only a little above the target zone.

Wage growth is running slightly ahead of Inflation now too.

BUT - The "perception" is that it is bad, which is largely fed by legacy Inflation and more recently Greed-flation where companies are not dropping the prices back now that inflation has eased back.

If the economy keeps performing for the next year as it is now , it should not be a weapon for the GOP at all.

And if the economy isn't a target , the GOP have nothing but culture war nonsense which simply isn't a vote getter in Swing states.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966270#Comment_120966270

Thing is, people were hurting in 2016 and took a punt on a man who promised a LOT. Those left behind remained thus after 4 years of legislative change that if anything, probably brought more misery - especially through Trumps COVID response.

I have always seen the reasoning someone sick of Washington taking a chance on a "successful" businessman who promised to drain the swamp - but once bitten, twice shy. It's maybe more hopeful optimism on my part but you'd have to imagine with the general population Trump's a known entity.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966270#Comment_120966270

You could phenomenally easily argue its, in fact, in quite a good place. The realities and sentiments on the American economy are wildly divergent to the point that makes zero sense.

The issue is not that people don't think its working for them. Over 70% of people think their personal economic situation is good, but somehow only 30 odd% think the economy is doing well.

aloyisious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966270#Comment_120966270

I saw a mention of how abortion is an issue in Ohio which could hurt the GOP, that the GOP-run state admin brought in "heartbeat" legislation which was then sidelined as un-necessary after the USSC overturned Roe V Wade. Ohio has a system whereby citizens can put forward a proposal, bypassing a legislature vote, to make a change to the state constitution and it seems there is a strong chance a group set up to secure both Pro-LGBT and Abortion rights are entered into the state constitution will use that right to get abortion rights entered onto the state constitution.

Tony EH

The economy is always bad for millions of people in America. When you don't have much and are working two or three jobs to pay your rent and keep the kids fed, the "economy" means fuck all to you. You're still poor, and to be poor in the US is the greatest crime of all over there. It's been this way for as long as I can remember. Millions of "working poor", trapped in a spiral. In the 90's I knew a guy in NYC who'd moved over. He ended up having to work two jobs and he was the super in his building. To a Paddy like me that was, simply, an horrific way to spend one's time in life. He and the family ended up coming back home soon enough when the American Dream™ turned into the nightmare of reality.

Over the decades, none of this has gotten any better and, in fact, it's ended up worse for many people. This is the vein that Trump tapped into in 2016 and he said he was going to do everything he could help those on the lower rungs. But, quelle surprise, he was only using the hardship of people to feather his own nest, because he's an endlessly self serving con man and the people he promised the sun, moon and the stars to are still no better off today than the were in 2016.

When your society is awful, the economy being "great" does little to ease that in real terms. Because it's really only ever "great" for certain people.