Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

Infini

Tell me how wrote: »

You mean the election they won?

What did you see during the 2020 campaign that would have you think they should regret their choice?

They won the presidency but they lost some state legistures as well as a few seats in congress. Granted the situation with covid meant they were not out on the ground as much but what they need is to learn fron where they lost ground and take it back. The Republicans are dangerously deluded, have abandoned reason for baseless conspiracies and just blatently corrupt, you only have to look at how they're out passing voter supression legislation to see they're going for Authoratarianism in the same way they acted up the North against Catholics 60 years ago. Truth is the republican party is dead its the Trump Conspiracy Party now and anywhere its in power it'll corrupt things further.

Tell me how

Infini wrote: »

They won the presidency but they lost some state legistures as well as a few seats in congress. Granted the situation with covid meant they were not out on the ground as much but what they need is to learn fron where they lost ground and take it back. The Republicans are dangerously deluded, have abandoned reason for baseless conspiracies and just blatently corrupt, you only have to look at how they're out passing voter supression legislation to see they're going for Authoratarianism in the same way they acted up the North against Catholics 60 years ago. Truth is the republican party is dead its the Trump Conspiracy Party now and anywhere its in power it'll corrupt things further.

None of this suggests they can't win in 2024, in fact, this is why they have gone this route, because they think it gives them the best chance of doing so.

Itssoeasy

And Joel Greenberg is going to now plead guilty to federal sex trafficking charges so Matt Gaetz week just got worse.

Edit: he’s changing his plea and will appear in court next Monday.

Rjd2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Agreed on Cheney

Here's the thing though.

If trump is still available , he will be the 2024 GOP Candidate and he will pick whoever the hell he likes as VP.

He won't accept an "establishment pick" like Pence a second time around so you literally could have any kind of nutter as his running mate.

Although I suspect that Stefanik would fancy her chances snaking that gig - She's clearly willing to say/do pretty much anything to get ahead.

On that basis , there really isn't all that much wrong with a Biden/Harris ticket again.

It will be an establishment Republican who will run with Trump.

If Trump was to run and somehow win he'd be 78 and its not a sure thing he would last the term. He would pick whoever he is told to be VP.

His presidency was defined by doing what Ryan and Mitch told him to ffs.

So someone like Haley, Tim Scott, Noem are huge runners because the donors adore them and if they want any of them to be vp they will.

I don't think he would go for RDS as two people from Florida is a bit much.

Harris ran an abysmal campaign in 2020 topped up by the fact that she dropped out before her home state as she knew she would get hammered.

She had the Democrat machine behind her and flopped.

Things may change in 2024 but right now she is unproven when it comes to winning competitive elections.

Rjd2

salmocab wrote: »

Cheney is a hardline conservative, apart from saying the election was not stolen she is as conservative as the people who removed her.

She genuinely has nothing in common with even the most moderate Dems.

Once you get past her stance on Trump, its a feast of horrors, incredibly right wing on everything and still an absolute war hawk.

Then of course their is still the still matter of her father been one of the worst people alive who played a huge role in the Iraq war.

No idea who she will pick as VP, maybe Mayor Pete?

Sherrod Brown would be a good play , but obviously the maths of the senate make it a really big call.

salmocab

Rjd2 wrote: »

She genuinely has nothing in common with even the most moderate Dems.

Once you get past her stance on Trump, its a feast of horrors, incredibly right wing on everything and still an absolute war hawk.

Then of course their is still the still matter of her father been one of the worst people alive who played a huge role in the Iraq war.

No idea who she will pick as VP, maybe Mayor Pete?

Sherrod Brown would be a good play , but obviously the maths of the senate make it a really big call.

Cant see mayor Pete, America is not ready for a female person of colour and a gay man ticket.
I do like him though and think in maybe 8/12 years he could be the candidate.

Brian?

marno21 wrote: »

Pure off the wall stuff.

Cheney is more conservative than most of the people who are overthrowing her. She has a better rating with the ACU than her replacement Elise Stefanik.

Cheney and Harris could not be further apart on policy. Their only common ground is in relation to losing candidates of presidential elections mounting insurrections against the US.

I really hope the Dems learn the lessons of 2020 and have someone better than Kamala Harris in mind for the 2024 election also.

It was off the wall, intentionally so.

What lesson do the the Dems need to learn from 2020 exactly? They walked the Presidential election.

Tell me how

Brian? wrote: »

It was off the wall, intentionally so.

What lesson do the the Dems need to learn from 2020 exactly? They walked the Presidential election.

They most definitely won, but it took 4 days for it to be declared. Think that cancels any suggestion of them walking it without even going in to the narrow margin of victory they had in key states.

Brian?

Tell me how wrote: »

They most definitely won, but it took 4 days for it to be declared. Think that cancels any suggestion of them walking it without even going in to the narrow margin of victory they had in key states.

It took a long time to call because of the record turnout and the amount of postal votes. The end result wasn’t close at all. They won Az and Ga for the first time since Clinton. They walked it, it was never actually in doubt.

They won by 7million votes.

Tell me how

Brian? wrote: »

It took a long time to call because of the record turnout and the amount of postal votes. The end result wasn’t close at all. They won Az and Ga for the first time since Clinton. They walked it, it was never actually in doubt.

They won by 7million votes.

I've said this before, 180K going the other way (out of circa 20 million votes) in the key states would have been enough to return Trump.

Ask Hillary what prize you get for only winning the popular vote.

Not to mind, even PP flipped their odds from a Biden win to a Trump win about 5am Irish time on the night of the election.

Leroy42

Tell me how wrote: »

Not to mind, even PP flipped their odds from a Biden win to a Trump win about 5am Irish time on the night of the election.

To get people to put money on Trump thinking they were going to make some money!

Oldest trick in the book. Trump simply was not doing well enough given the sheer amount of postal votes, postal votes that everyone knew were going to go heavily for Biden since Trump had told his supporters not to postal vote.

As soon as Trump came out to claim he had won, no matter what happens, it was effectively over. Trump had already started to look for an excuse and a way to beat the system.

marno21

Ah come on now.

He won Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779) and Wisconsin (20,682) by a combined total of 42,918 votes. Had he not won those 3 states it would have been 269-269, gone to the House and Trump would have won. Had he lost NE-02, another 22,091 votes, he would have lost it 270-268.

65,009 votes was what Biden won by. 7 million is irrelevant, the popular vote doesn't matter.

This is why the Harris etc stuff is annoying. Sure Harris could win by 7 million votes but if those votes are new votes in LA/Chicago/New York it doesn't matter. The electoral college matters and Biden was 65,009 votes away from losing that. We could debate for the night how ****ed that is (Hillary winning by 3 million but Trump winning the EC by ~80k votes in PA/WI/MI is the same) but that's how it'll be in 2024 too.

On a state level, I can see PA going full R by 2024, but hopefully NC will start drifting bluewards to make up for it. AZ/GA will hopefully continue to drift bluewards too.

Leroy42

marno21 wrote: »

Ah come on now.

He won Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779) and Wisconsin (20,682) by a combined total of 42,918 votes. Had he not won those 3 states it would have been 269-269, gone to the House and Trump would have won. Had he lost NE-02, another 22,091 votes, he would have lost it 270-268.

65,009 votes was what Biden won by. 7 million is irrelevant, the popular vote doesn't matter.

This is why the Harris etc stuff is annoying. Sure Harris could win by 7 million votes but if those votes are new votes in LA/Chicago/New York it doesn't matter. The electoral college matters and Biden was 65,009 votes away from losing that. We could debate for the night how ****ed that is (Hillary winning by 3 million but Trump winning the EC by ~80k votes in PA/WI/MI is the same) but that's how it'll be in 2024 too.

On a state level, I can see PA going full R by 2024, but hopefully NC will start drifting bluewards to make up for it. AZ/GA will hopefully continue to drift bluewards too.

Why do you assume that Harris won't win the same votes?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do you assume that Harris won't win the same votes?

I've already said that I fear a drop in turnout will affect Dems more than Republicans.

Also, Republican state level efforts to impact voting in traditional democrat areas cannot be discounted. Nor can the fact that the Republicans will probably be more open to postal voting next time.

Those 3 factors alone could influence Bidens votes should he run in 2024 himself, add in the race baiting, misogny that they'll aim at Harris should she be going for the top office and I can tell you right now I don't expect her to perform as well as Biden did unless things are going very well in the administration throughout 2023/24

Brian?

Brian? wrote: »

It was off the wall, intentionally so.

What lesson do the the Dems need to learn from 2020 exactly? They walked the Presidential election.

As above. There were posts on here for a couple of years about how Trump only won by 70k-odd in 2016, Biden's margin was even slimmer at the end of the day.
Anything but a booming economy in 3 and a half years' time and the Dems are toast. That's how it goes.

Brian?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As above. There were posts on here for a couple of years about how Trump only won by 70k-odd in 2016, Biden's margin was even slimmer at the end of the day.
Anything but a booming economy in 3 and a half years' time and the Dems are toast. That's how it goes.

So let’s say I buy into the the super close election narrative, what lessons do the Democrats need to learn from 2020?

IMO they need to do exactly what they did in 202 to win again: Fight every voter suppression law in the courts and maximise the turnout.

salmocab

Brian? wrote: »

So let’s say I buy into the the super close election narrative, what lessons do the Democrats need to learn from 2020?

IMO they need to do exactly what they did in 202 to win again: Fight every voter suppression law in the courts and maximise the turnout.

Also as manic Moran pointed out recently the carry on of the GOP isn’t winning them any extra votes but may actually marginalise some rational voters (I’m paraphrasing).

Field east

Tell me how wrote: »

I've said this before, 180K going the other way (out of circa 20 million votes) in the key states would have been enough to return Trump.

Ask Hillary what prize you get for only winning the popular vote.

Not to mind, even PP flipped their odds from a Biden win to a Trump win about 5am Irish time on the night of the election.

BUT Trump lost even having held a lot of advantages going into the election , such as:-
- up against a very weak and , as some would say, doddery candidate
-an old and not very energetic candidate
- Biden held practically no rallies as against Trump holding numerous ones
-Biden had a number of failed bids to become president
-Biden had poor record of achievement in his long political career.
-The republicans were in control in a lot of states but still managed to lose them
-Trump was the outgoing peseident so was in pole position.
He apparently knew what the Democrats were apparently up to re trying to get enough votes to win the election so why did the GOP not do the same thing ‘whatever that was’

AND STILL HE LOST

Trump said at one stage that Biden was such a weak candidate that he was wondering would he get any votes at all or words to that effect

Cody montana

Field east wrote: »

BUT Trump lost even having held a lot of advantages going into the election , such as:-
- up against a very weak and , as some would say, doddery candidate
-an old and not very energetic candidate
- Biden held practically no rallies as against Trump holding numerous ones
-Biden had a number of failed bids to become president
-Biden had poor record of achievement in his long political career.
-The republicans were in control in a lot of states but still managed to lose them
-Trump was the outgoing peseident so was in pole position.
He apparently knew what the Democrats were apparently up to re trying to get enough votes to win the election so why did the GOP not do the same thing ‘whatever that was’

AND STILL HE LOST

Trump said at one stage that Biden was such a weak candidate that he was wondering would he get any votes at all or words to that effect

Didn’t he say he’d leave the country if Biden wins?

salmocab

Cody montana wrote: »

Didn’t he say he’d leave the country if Biden wins?

Celebs do that all the time and never do. It’s just big mouthing unfortunately, that’s why Ray D’Arcy is still on the radio.

banie01

Cody montana wrote: »

Didn’t he say he’d leave the country if Biden wins?

He'll shortly be declaring Mar e Lago's succession and his election as president for life

ZeroThreat

banie01 wrote: »

He'll shortly be declaring Mar e Lago's succession and his election as president for life

Surely you mean secession.

Tell me how

Field east wrote: »

BUT Trump lost even having held a lot of advantages going into the election , such as:-
- up against a very weak and , as some would say, doddery candidate
-an old and not very energetic candidate
- Biden held practically no rallies as against Trump holding numerous ones
-Biden had a number of failed bids to become president
-Biden had poor record of achievement in his long political career.
-The republicans were in control in a lot of states but still managed to lose them
-Trump was the outgoing peseident so was in pole position.
He apparently knew what the Democrats were apparently up to re trying to get enough votes to win the election so why did the GOP not do the same thing ‘whatever that was’

AND STILL HE LOST

Trump said at one stage that Biden was such a weak candidate that he was wondering would he get any votes at all or words to that effect

I can't believe some of the retrospective of what went on in last years election. and all of what you have written is fine if you consider his Presidency as being 17, 18, 19 and that the election was possibly held it Jan 2020. But it wasn't 2020 was one of the most significant years for a US Presidency, in history.

First off, Trump himself is no stranger to being viewed as old, or doddery.
But, the absolutely GIGANTIC elephant in the room, which you have completely discounted is Covid.
His reaction to it, in dismissing it, ignoring masks, wanting to prioritize the economy, shifting blame, stealing supplies on their way to other countries, telling the states they were on their own, giving false information on treatment options, undermining medical professionals, threatening to fire Fauci, being focused on the ratings at his press conferences and flat out refusing to take responsibility for it.
All of that before it emerged he made a conscious decision to downplay it at a time when they had the opportunity to get ahead of it in preparation, contracted it himself and then still continued to hold rallies in that environment.
Secondly, the also large, but small in comparison to the beast above, was his response to the BLM protests that erupted last summer. He used it as a political weapon to try to blame Democrats for instigating the protests and he practically begged state Governors to utilize the national guard and to get very tough with people who were attending them.
And several other younger but still large elephants running around the place including his attempt to cancel some members of the White House Press Corp, the 215 indictments tied to his administration, him being impeached, him only paying $750 in tax a couple of years while in the White House, his 'LIBERATE' tweets which emboldened extreme conservatives to plan to kidnap and kill a state Governor as well as storm a number of state houses and to a lesser degree, his regressive policies in relation to the Climate and Iran, his attempt even ahead of the election to detrimentally influence the electoral process with the placement of DeJoy at the head of the USPS who started to try to slow down the receipt and acceptance of postal votes. And finally, in this respect, that he never broached 50% satisfaction rating while in Office.

All that aside, Biden conclusively won the debates with the rules being changed in how they were carried out as it was evident Trump could not control himself.
Biden was very smart in not holding large rallies because A, it showed his respect and awareness of the dangers from mass gatherings, and B it drastically reduced the Trump campaign from utilising doctored videos from the rallies to make him appear weak.

And with all this being said, and as has been pointed out a number of times, he still came within 0.06% of the total ballots cast in being returned (approx 100K out of 155M) if these 100K had been in particular states.

And this is why, looking forward towards 2024, if he is there, I'm not hopeful that he will get the embarrassing hiding he deserves in spite of adding to the mix his undermining democracy, inciting an insurrection and being a total see you next Tuesday in how he handled the transition.

Manic Moran

Field east wrote: »

Trump said at one stage that Biden was such a weak candidate that he was wondering would he get any votes at all or words to that effect

The problem is that whatever about Trump saying that Biden was a weak candidate, would anyone say that Trump was, himself, a particularly strong candidate?

Yes, he has a base which is very loyal to him. but not all those 75million Trump voters actually liked him. There is still a very strong element of "anti-Democrat" in the US which is not going to be countered next time around by "I can't vote for Trump". Unless, of course, he gets the 2024 nomination, I guess.

Christy42

Manic Moran wrote: »

The problem is that whatever about Trump saying that Biden was a weak candidate, would anyone say that Trump was, himself, a particularly strong candidate?

Yes, he has a base which is very loyal to him. but not all those 75million Trump voters actually liked him. There is still a very strong element of "anti-Democrat" in the US which is not going to be countered next time around by "I can't vote for Trump". Unless, of course, he gets the 2024 nomination, I guess.

What else can they do but put him forward? They have 0 policies outside of what he says. They no longer have an identity outside of Trump. Anyone who disagrees with him is purged so you have Trump or a Trump proxy by definition. No one who disagrees is allowed inside the Republican party. Any moderates who have not yet been found will be thrown out or made to swear allegiance.

Not Trump is not a big threat to Democrats. Anti voting laws are where the next election will be lost and won. Trump came close this time around and the gop have stepped up their game since he lost.

banie01

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Surely you mean secession.

I did, and do!
Damn autocorrect!

listermint

Christy42 wrote: »

What else can they do but put him forward? They have 0 policies outside of what he says. They no longer have an identity outside of Trump. Anyone who disagrees with him is purged so you have Trump or a Trump proxy by definition. No one who disagrees is allowed inside the Republican party. Any moderates who have not yet been found will be thrown out or made to swear allegiance.

Not Trump is not a big threat to Democrats. Anti voting laws are where the next election will be lost and won. Trump came close this time around and the gop have stepped up their game since he lost.

The biggest question is how the GOP think they can expand their voter base pursuing policies of alienating other voters and in many ways pushing out people that had a distaste for trumpism but would identify as being pragmatic conservatives.

Is a trump only wagon a valid ticket to get majority votes.

Leroy42

Tell me how wrote: »

I can't believe some of the retrospective of what went on in last years election. and all of what you have written is fine if you consider his Presidency as being 17, 18, 19 and that the election was possibly held it Jan 2020. But it wasn't 2020 was one of the most significant years for a US Presidency, in history.

First off, Trump himself is no stranger to being viewed as old, or doddery.
But, the absolutely GIGANTIC elephant in the room, which you have completely discounted is Covid.
His reaction to it, in dismissing it, ignoring masks, wanting to prioritize the economy, shifting blame, stealing supplies on their way to other countries, telling the states they were on their own, giving false information on treatment options, undermining medical professionals, threatening to fire Fauci, being focused on the ratings at his press conferences and flat out refusing to take responsibility for it.
All of that before it emerged he made a conscious decision to downplay it at a time when they had the opportunity to get ahead of it in preparation, contracted it himself and then still continued to hold rallies in that environment.
Secondly, the also large, but small in comparison to the beast above, was his response to the BLM protests that erupted last summer. He used it as a political weapon to try to blame Democrats for instigating the protests and he practically begged state Governors to utilize the national guard and to get very tough with people who were attending them.
And several other younger but still large elephants running around the place including his attempt to cancel some members of the White House Press Corp, the 215 indictments tied to his administration, him being impeached, him only paying $750 in tax a couple of years while in the White House, his 'LIBERATE' tweets which emboldened extreme conservatives to plan to kidnap and kill a state Governor as well as storm a number of state houses and to a lesser degree, his regressive policies in relation to the Climate and Iran, his attempt even ahead of the election to detrimentally influence the electoral process with the placement of DeJoy at the head of the USPS who started to try to slow down the receipt and acceptance of postal votes. And finally, in this respect, that he never broached 50% satisfaction rating while in Office.

All that aside, Biden conclusively won the debates with the rules being changed in how they were carried out as it was evident Trump could not control himself.
Biden was very smart in not holding large rallies because A, it showed his respect and awareness of the dangers from mass gatherings, and B it drastically reduced the Trump campaign from utilising doctored videos from the rallies to make him appear weak.

And with all this being said, and as has been pointed out a number of times, he still came within 0.06% of the total ballots cast in being returned (approx 100K out of 155M) if these 100K had been in particular states.

And this is why, looking forward towards 2024, if he is there, I'm not hopeful that he will get the embarrassing hiding he deserves in spite of adding to the mix his undermining democracy, inciting an insurrection and being a total see you next Tuesday in how he handled the transition.

The problem Trump will face is that he was still in a position to claim that nobody could do any better.

Biden, so far, is proving that a complete fabrication. It is one thing to stick with what you know for fear of something new, entirely different proposition to what to change what is clearly working for someone that proved a failure in the past.

You are correct that had the election been in Jan 2020 Trump would have won, but it is also fair to say that up until that point Trump hadn't faced a significant test. The economy was doing well, no major incidents in the world etc. The 1st few problems he was faced with he failed, that is a hard stain to wash away.

Trump is now a loser and a failure. The veneer of 'the bestest businessman ever' has been shown to be false.

He ran in 2016 as a new broom, in 2020 as a chance to continue. He lost 2020 because people now know him and didn't like what they saw. And between now & 2024 how is he going to solve that problem?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem Trump will face is that he was still in a position to claim that nobody could do any better.

Biden, so far, is proving that a complete fabrication. It is one thing to stick with what you know for fear of something new, entirely different proposition to what to change what is clearly working for someone that proved a failure in the past.

You are correct that had the election been in Jan 2020 Trump would have won, but it is also fair to say that up until that point Trump hadn't faced a significant test. The economy was doing well, no major incidents in the world etc. The 1st few problems he was faced with he failed, that is a hard stain to wash away.

Trump is now a loser and a failure. The veneer of 'the bestest businessman ever' has been shown to be false.

He ran in 2016 as a new broom, in 2020 as a chance to continue. He lost 2020 because people now know him and didn't like what they saw. And between now & 2024 how is he going to solve that problem?

I think the crux of what I am saying is that American politics is so tribal, that many many people vote a particular almost devoid of any analysis of the candidate and the victory is frequently determined by which side motivated more people to vote.

Everything that you say about Trump is true, and that Covid was a once in a lifetime pandemic, but, he still got 74M people to vote for him with both these facts being very much in the public arena. And yes, we can add to that his behaviour around the election results but I expect that the number of people who were willing to ignore the first two topics but would become so repulsed by the display of the 3rd, that they would switch their allegiance to vote for a Democrat is so small as to be insignificant.

I think many patriotic Republicans would have been repulsed by his behavior and they might not vote in 2024 (should he be on the ticket) but not that they would switch sides.
And this brings me back to the high turnout of 2020, and the likely drop for 2024 and if Trump loses ten million 'patriots' because of his action but Biden loses 11M (without any of these 21M switching their votes to the other side) voters because they think there is no way Trump will win, then we could once again be looking at 'How did this happen' headlines.

And this is why I hope we continue to see the Justice Dept or SDNY progress with meaningful action against him but as I cautioned before, we are not far from those investigations being 'delayed' because of claims that they are politically motivated and Republicans in positions to halt them or throw them out will act forcefully to do so.

WhomadeGod

WhomadeGod wrote: »

If its Trump v kamala Harris in 2024 how does that one play out?

It's 3 years away, so it's pretty impossible to guess. Depends on how America fares post covid. I would say the uncontroversial administration is something a lot of people will find more refreshing than the last few years.