Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Charles Babbage

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You're completely missing the point.

They did not have to invoke it. The political damage was already done. They had provided the unionists and the tories with the pretext they now run with.

This notion that they didn't actually invoke so what's the problem misses the point of the complete undermining of their own position.

This is all a bit of a stretch. The supply of vaccines in NI was entirely coming from the UK anyhow so the EU proposal did not mean anything in practical terms. It was wrong, and was quickly corrected, but it isn't in any way a justification for the carry on now, this is just bad faith by the British.



It will be interesting to see what the EU. In the first instance they will not ratify the UK deal in the European Parliament until this is sorted. No doubt they could themselves pick on something to slow down trade from GB, something of much greater value than M&S sandwiches going to Sprucefield.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Tony Connelly indicating the EU does not agree with UK actions.

Lol, another hot take. It's a simple matter of the UK making a unilateral decision at risk of breaching an international agreement.

Kermit.de.frog

Hurrache wrote: »

Lol, another hot take. It's a simple matter of the UK making a unilateral decision at risk of breaching an international agreement.

We are very vulnerable now.

It's up to the coastal states on the continent what they want to do with our goods.

I don't see them allowing unfettered trade for 6 months with a gaping hole there.

I think they'll impose checks on our goods as a result.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are very vulnerable now.

It's up to the coastal states on the continent what they want to do with our goods.

I don't see them allowing unfettered trade for 6 months with a gaping hole there.

I think they'll impose checks on our goods as a result.

So basically there is nothing the EU can do and we have the Irexit now?

Kermit.de.frog

Enzokk wrote: »

So basically there is nothing the EU can do and we have the Irexit now?

Well, our position in the single market is now at serious risk.

I have mentioned before how easy it would be for the UK to dislodge us.

All they have to do is break their commitments.

If the EU does not agree with this move then defacto that's a hole in the EU internal market between ROI and the rest.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, our position in the single market is now at serious risk.

I have mentioned before how easy it would be for the UK to dislodge us.

All they have to do is break their commitments.

If the EU does not agree with this move then defacto that's a hole in the EU internal market between ROI and the rest.

But there is nothing that can be done at all. We are done, our place is decided not by us but by a hostile 3rd country. Their actions have determined our place in the EU, because that is what you have been posting for the past few hours.

Or, the EU will respond to this action by the UK in an appropriate manner. The same thing will happen that happened with the threat of no-deal and then the IM Bill, the UK will back down and go back to their commitments.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are very vulnerable now.

It's up to the coastal states on the continent what they want to do with our goods.

I don't see them allowing unfettered trade for 6 months with a gaping hole there.

I think they'll impose checks on our goods as a result.

That would be illegal under Single Market rules. Whatever the outcome, they won't go for that one.

Kermit.de.frog

Strazdas wrote: »

That would be illegal under Single Market rules. Whatever the outcome, they won't go for that one.

Oh really? Like I say Tony Connelly mentioned this very risk to us just the other day.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0227/1199634-post-brexit-eu-uk-relationship/

Some officials entertain dark fears that maintaining friction is what the UK would prefer. They even worry that by keeping the Protocol in a state of perpetual turmoil, the UK could end up driving a wedge between Ireland and the so-called "coastal" EU member states (France, the Netherlands, Belgium) which take in Irish exports.

If those countries cannot depend on the checks and controls at Northern Irish ports, might they suggest imposing their own controls on food products coming in from the island of Ireland?

The problem for us is that once a check goes in Ireland ceases from that point to be a full member of the SM.

I don't know why people seem to have overlooked this prospect until recently. It was always a risk.

I see other posters mentioning what the EU might do to the UK in response. What can they do that would be of greater impact than the impact on us as a result of dislodgement from the internal market?

Fact is we are poisoned by geography on this one.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, our position in the single market is now at serious risk.

I have mentioned before how easy it would be for the UK to dislodge us.

All they have to do is break their commitments.

If the EU does not agree with this move then defacto that's a hole in the EU internal market between ROI and the rest.

This is the third time perfidious albion have tried this, what makes you think they'll follow through this time, and with no international repercussions to their economy, many elements of which are already on their knees financially as a result of Brexit and what was actually agreed by them?

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are very vulnerable now.
I think they'll impose checks on our goods as a result.

Why would they punish us? Why not punish the UK?

Hurrache

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why would they punish us? Why not punish the UK?

The Express wrote about it, or something.

Kermit.de.frog

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why would they punish us? Why not punish the UK?

Because of the integrity of the single market. No one on the continent is risking that for us.

The level of solidarity does not go anywhere near that far.

If there is a hole they'll fill it one way or another otherwise the whole bloc is undermined.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Oh really? Like I say Tony Connelly mentioned this very risk to us just the other day.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0227/1199634-post-brexit-eu-uk-relationship/



The problem for us is that once a check goes in Ireland ceases from that point to be a full member of the SM.

I don't know why people seem to have overlooked this prospect until recently. It was always a risk.

I see other posters mentioning what the EU might do to the UK in response. What can they do that would be of greater impact than the impact on us as a result of dislodgement from the internal market?

Fact is we are poisoned by geography on this one.

Punishing Ireland for nefarious actions by the UK Brexiteers would make no sense and would fly in the face of the principles of the Single Market. I suspect the EU would find some way of punishing the Brexiteers instead.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, our position in the single market is now at serious risk.

I have mentioned before how easy it would be for the UK to dislodge us.

All they have to do is break their commitments.

If the EU does not agree with this move then defacto that's a hole in the EU internal market between ROI and the rest.

As it has been since the vote itself. Ireland, the day after, were faced with the choice of sticking with the UK or with the EU. We chose the EU.

Nothing has changed in that regard. The WA was an attempt by the EU to use their considerable leverage to try to get the UK to stick to their commitments under the GFA. They agreed.

THey now seem intent on ignored these commitments, and the commitments in the WA and the trade deal, for their own reasons and to feck everyone else.

That was always a possibility. If the UK continue down this road then a border will have to go up.

But regardless, it is the UK making that decision. No one else. Nothing we, the EU or anyone else can actually do apart from pointing out the consequences of such a decision.

Kermit.de.frog

Hurrache wrote: »

The Express wrote about it, or something.

You don't believe that we are at genuine risk of dislodgment, not of our own doing, from the single market?

And I don't read tabloids. I'm giving my opinion. You can disagree with it wihtout such remarks.

fly_agaric

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So if it's unilateral that means there is now a hole in the single market.

Now the torch is passed to EU coastal states whether they decide to have checks between them and ROI or not.

This is why we are vulnerable.

It's the point I have been trying to get across.

Tony Connelly said in his blog post the other days this is a major risk for Ireland.

I don't think people disagree with you that this sort of thing could spell trouble for Ireland (at least I don't), even up to point of other member states looking to check goods coming out of this country depending on how things develop with the implementation of the protocol combined with UK govt. deregulation efforts/divergence from EU standards as time goes on.

However despite the Commission error with Article 16 I really think they + EU and other member states have done as best they can by Ireland in this situation. Don't know why you cannot see that (dislike of the EU blinding you?).

The bind we could be in (if it turns out badly) is entirely the result of successive UK governments + their decisions which we (or the EU) have had little effect on, + the foul politics of the UK generally.

We are being f-cked by our neighbours basically and the blame falls on them.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You don't believe that we are at genuine risk of dislodgment, not of our own doing, from the single market?

And I don't read tabloids. I'm giving my opinion. You can disagree with it wihtout such remarks.

Of course if's going to be trouble for us, no one has ever denied it since the day Brexit was first mentioned.

But the EU is not going to sit on its hands and allow the UK to breach an international treaty, one which the EU has yet to ratify, with no detriment to themselves and instead kick Ireland out of the single market for simplicity sake.

Kermit.de.frog

Seems like the govt are prepared for this, it will be interesting to see what both the govt and the EU will say.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1367124180232208386

This, to me, if it's entirely unilateral is a breach of the WA. And it puts our place in the SM at risk.

So let's see what the EU has to say. I'd hope they would announce some sort of action tbh or these schenadigans from London I think will get worse.

Quin_Dub

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's kind of a nothing change though when if you are using a phone or smart watch etc. there is no limit (other than unlocking your phone)

I spent €400 on a new dishwasher earlier today (Don't get me started. Old one died HARD and flooded the kitchen!!) and used contactless.

I almost never use my actual card anymore , I use my phone pretty much exclusively (except in Tesco , but that's Tesco , not any EU rule).

The percentage of people using smart devices to pay is only going to continue to grow.

Unlocking your phone is presumably the stronger authentication required. Does it have to be with a pin?

Deleted User wrote: »

UK was never in the Eurozone.

The EBA is separate to the ECB and used to be based in London - it's not limited to the Eurozone.

schmoo2k wrote: »

The limit in the Netherlands in 100 Euros I thought?

According to Google is is 100 cumulative.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Because of the integrity of the single market. No one on the continent is risking that for us.

The usual way to deal with a party breaking a trade agreement is not to punish your own side, but to impose sanctions such as tariffs on the offenders.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The usual way to deal with a party breaking a trade agreement is not to punish your own side, but to impose sanctions such as tariffs on the offenders.

Yes, it would be dealt with it in a nuanced way. Imposing checks on ROI goods would be the sledgehammer approach (almost as if Ireland itself was the transgressor). The clever thing would be to let the goods still come through but apply sanctions to the real culprit until they desist with their rule breaking.

Gerry T

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You're completely missing the point.
They did not have to invoke it. The political damage was already done. They had provided the unionists and the tories with the pretext they now run with.
This notion that they didn't actually invoke so what's the problem misses the point of the complete undermining of their own position.
We were told that this was all about preserving peace, right? That was the mantra. The EU succeeded in getting Britain to a point where they had few credible arguments.
Then they threw all that away in a moment of madness over their incompetence over vaccines.
So for Brits it's not about peace at all. To them it proved NI was just a tool to bash Britain with
I don't agree with that but that's the perception and perception matters.
All due to an amateur mistake, and I accept it was a mistake. But it's us that takes the consequences.
As we see now the Brits naturally have no problem running with it.
I just think it was a dreadful error and only now are we beginning to see the consequences.

So without going over old ground you accept the EU didn't actually invoke Art16, they mentioned it and quickly apologised.
That is not a good enough reason for the UK to then say the internationally agreed treaties are now null and void and the UK is justified in it's proposed actions.
The reality is, it doesn't matter what the UK says or thinks, nobody cares and most people are ignoring the propaganda outside of the UK. All that matters is what the UK does and if the UK proceeds to break the GFA or NI protocol or the future relationship deal then the EU will react with a measured response. This is allowed for in the agreements and the EU can legally impose tariffs or trade sanctions or seek financial compensation. What ever happens IRL will be with the EU, there will be no disruption to trade between IRL and the rest of the EU, with time if this escalates and a border is required on the island of Ireland then that border would be there because of the UK and only the UK. There is nothing and I mean nothing Ireland can do to stop that happening if that's what the UK wants.

But in reality the pain and damage to the UK (England) economy felt by taking such a course leads me to believe the UK (England) will wait to see what the EU response is before it decides to row back and reinstate all checks between NI and GB. It's showmanship by Johnson, school boy stuff, he hasn't the wit to see what's coming. Problems with the EU, USA and many other countries that would not support the UK but haven't been vocal.

Kermit.de.frog

Telegraph reporting that "EU sources" are saying this is a breach of the WA. UK side denying it.

I mean, it clearly is if it's a unilateral extension of grace periods.

The EU needs to react some way IMO.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph reporting that "EU sources" are saying this is a breach of the WA. UK side denying it.

I mean, it clearly is if it's a unilateral extension of grace periods.

The EU needs to react some way IMO.

Once you hear the words 'unilateral action' in relation to a bilateral agreement or treaty, you know there is going to be trouble.

schmoo2k

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Seems like the govt are prepared for this, it will be interesting to see what both the govt and the EU will say.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1367124180232208386

This, to me, if it's entirely unilateral is a breach of the WA. And it puts our place in the SM at risk.

So let's see what the EU has to say. I'd hope they would announce some sort of action tbh or these schenadigans from London I think will get worse.

One frustrating thing here - if the UK add a sticker saying "not for resale outside of NI" and automatically uploaded the shipping manifests to the EU customs DB, then 80% of the issues would be gone...

But I will bite - lets follow kermit down his rabbit hole. If the UK actually break the agreement and ultimately fall back on WTO rules, then yes the EU would want to put in place measures to stop goods flowing from NI to the south and the UK would naturally need something similar, if only to prevent "illegals" getting into the UK. This is the hard border.

Currently the EU are actually not "punishing" the UK or making any new rules to annoy them, they are simply implementing the rules agreed to by the UK and EU. But in this new rabbit hole, the UK preferential agreement would be gone and the EU would be in a position to really apply punitive measures to the UK. On top of that the USA has already stated that they will not consider any trade deals with the UK should they renege on the GFA.

IMO this is why its all huff and puff for the home market, with no follow through...

There is always the possibility that stuff leaving Ireland to go to the mainland EU gets checked to verify that it has not been brought in "via the back door", if there are no checks at the NI border.

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

There is always the possibility that stuff leaving Ireland to go to the mainland EU gets checked to verify that it has not been brought in "via the back door", if there are no checks at the NI border.

That's Ireland detached then from the SM. That is not what people here want so i'd like the EU to act.

They don't seem happy (EU official). They are saying the UK has breached the WA.


https://twitter.com/ShonaMurray_/status/1367140568942448647

Larbre34

I think Kermit you way underestimate EU solidarity with Ireland.

In a politically troubled EU, Ireland is the battleground for the single market, both as an ideology and a functioning entity. As with the Brexit process up to December, Brussels will do anything at all to make sure it works for us, with maximum damage limitation. There is nothing Britain can do by commission or omission to make us any less than an integral part of the single market, the soul of EU ideals.

They might try, but as we've seen for 5 years, Brussels holds the UK's economic bollox in its palm. Any misbehaviour results in a tight squeeze. Not to mention the shyt the UK sectoral interests would send Boris' way if they were further hamstrung by Tory policy.

Nate--IRL--

Deleted User wrote: »

There is always the possibility that stuff leaving Ireland to go to the mainland EU gets checked to verify that it has not been brought in "via the back door", if there are no checks at the NI border.

I don't think any Irish government would countenance that. A Border with the North would be the first option. And it goes without saying, such a situation would only occur if the UK government rip up the WA.

Nate

The Raging Bile Duct

According to Shona Murray, they were looking into extending the grace period anyway so this move seems bafflingly stupid.

https://twitter.com/ShonaMurray_/status/1367140566274818049