Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

It could be just for optics for the unionists but it leaves us in an uncomfortable place really.

They'll keep pulling these stunts keeping the situation unstable.

schmoo2k

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It could be just for optics for the unionists but it leaves us in an uncomfortable place really.

They'll keep pulling these stunts keeping the situation unstable.

To date they just roll back when confronted so no point in worrying about it until something actually happens?

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It could be just for optics for the unionists but it leaves us in an uncomfortable place really.

They'll keep pulling these stunts keeping the situation unstable.

Yes, unfortunately that is the reality of the situation. We are now trying to work with a foreign country, a neighbour, who seems intent of ignoring any semblance of diplomacy or working together.

No one is denying any of that. The issue is who is to blame.

I can only think of the UK being to blame. As despite anything that has been done they always demand something more. Even the transition period from 1 Jan 2021 was a concession by the EU (remember the UK refused to request an actual extension) and yet now, again, that is being thrown back at the EU faces.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They'll keep pulling these stunts keeping the situation unstable

The UK is new to this, and they are dashing in all directions, mostly because this is all still headline news at home.

In time, the UK will learn that it is better to negotiate quietly, less risk you'll have to backtrack or fold when your bluff is called.

joeysoap

If there is any threat to the GFA , Joe Biden might have something to say.



Interesting that last night the BBC News implied that the UK is ‘concerned’ that Biden is considering not modernizing the Nuclear deterrent. This should concern them more

Kermit.de.frog

EU commission saying UK has violated the Protocol/WA

https://twitter.com/Fxglobe_1/status/1367173513824657408

This is because of the unilateral nature of their action.

And here is the statement. They are calling it a breach of international law

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1367172272365174784

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

EU commission saying UK has violated the WA

https://twitter.com/Fxglobe_1/status/1367173513824657408

This is because of the unilateral nature of their action.

They sound very angry in their published statement. No punches pulled.

Kermit.de.frog

Seems there will be a response/action from the EU according to the last sentence of the statement.

Strazdas

The Taoiseach and Simon Coveney sound angry as well. Both have issued statements condemning the move.

Kermit.de.frog

What action is open to the EU here?

In my view they should suspend ratification of the trade agreement until the UK govt is seen to uphold it's commitments they insist on breaking.

Leroy42

Let's see if the UK admit their mistake and cancel it or they continue down this path. Remember the massive furore made of the EU mistake about Art 16, but at least they realised their error and swiftly rowed back, publicly admitting the mistake.

The Uk have until, what tomorrow morning maybe, to admit this is a non-runner.

Charles Babbage

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What action is open to the EU here?

In my view they should suspend ratification of the trade agreement until the UK govt is seen to uphold it's commitments they insist on breaking.

This exactly.



I wonder is there any scope for NI or other EU producers of products being brought from Britain to sue because the UK government has reneged on the Protocol?

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

Let's see if the UK admit their mistake and cancel it or they continue down this path. Remember the massive furore made of the EU mistake about Art 16, but at least they realised their error and swiftly rowed back, publicly admitting the mistake.

The Uk have until, what tomorrow morning maybe, to admit this is a non-runner.

They won't. It appears that the goal here is to collapse the protocol and blame the EU for it.

NeuralNetwork

They're just going to keep doing this. I don't know why anyone would think otherwise.

That element of the Tory/Brexiteers view the EU with absolute contempt and see this all as a game where by they will duck, dive, manipulate and bully their way into a position that they want and there will be no compromise on anything.

Their modus operandi seems to be to negotiate and sign agreements in bad faith with absolutely no sense that they are anything other than a way of manipulating the situation to achieve some parallel objective.

This isn't politics as usual. The rules of the game are simply about what they can get away with.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

EU commission saying UK has violated the Protocol/WA
.....
They are calling it a breach of international law

None of that was ever in doubt as soon as they hinted at it.

It's not that the EU are saying it, everyone following it is saying it, including people in the UK.

Leroy42

The strange thing is, I really doubt the EU would have much issue with an extension. NI is so immaterial, and we are still in the position that nothing really has changed, that given a few extra months would be little concern to the EU.

However, I have the sneaky suspicion that the UK are fully aware of that and that this is nothing more than a manufactured crisis in order to distract from the reality that the UK government are effectively agreeing that Brexit is a mess for NI. Far from not having any forms to fill, as Johnson promised, NI are so negatively impacted that the UK needs longer than then planned transition as they are nowhere near capable of making it work.

NeuralNetwork

How can you even negotiate with a government like this? It is just lies, lies and more lies. If their word is meaningless, they will end up trade deals riddled with penalty clauses that will be enforced if they breech them.

For example, are they going to go into a US trade deal promising the earth, moon and stars to the US trade negotiator and then just rip that up a few weeks later when they decide something like a deal on agriculture is politically uncomfortable?

Or, is this a game they'd only play with the EU because they deem it a joke?

This is trashing the UK's reputation as a trustworthy entity to deal with.

Then what?

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

I have the sneaky suspicion that the UK are fully aware of that and that this is nothing more than a manufactured crisis in order to distract from the reality that the UK government are effectively agreeing that Brexit is a mess for NI. Far from not having any forms to fill, as Johnson promised, NI are so negatively impacted that the UK needs longer than then planned transition as they are nowhere near capable of making it work.

I'd go further and suggest that it's a manufactured crisis to distract from the very likely possibility that GB will have to agree to remain aligned to the EU's S/PS rules for considerably longer than the Brexiters would tolerate if it was agreed without any "payback" - so they're getting their "payback" in first.

It looks to me like an attempt by the Johnson administration (probably not Johnson himself - I think he's too much of buffoon to even know which side of the page any agreement should be signed) to play Big Boy Geopolitics, but based solely on their experience of FPTP campaigning strategies.

Right now, the implementation of Brexit is a mess for British importers and exporters, regardless of whether they're trading across the Irish Sea or the English Channel. But there's a workable way forward for those who can weather the twin storms of Covid and Brexit. However, that hinges entirely on the EP ratifying the agreement, and there's the biggest hammer the EU can swing at GB heads.

All it would take would be the threat of revoking the TCA agreement, and the threat of WTO rules applying to all British goods/people/services moving into the EU from, say, 1st April and every one of those companies that rejoiced in finally having clarity on how to continue to trade with the EU will be furious that they wasted so much time and energy over these last couple of months, only to have it thrown back at them so that a bunch of head-banging Unionists can eat British sausages.

Kermit.de.frog

I don't see how the EU can just let this go. They mention legal action in their statement but I don't know to what extent there is teeth in that.

I don't think it's going to intimidate the tories.

They should suspend ratification of the trade deal until commitments are complied with otherwise this will go on and on.

beerguts

SNIP. No insults please.

Kermit.de.frog

beerguts wrote: »

SNIP

I don't see France accepting 6 further months with a hole in the single market.

I'd be surprised if they didn't implement checks.

Jizique

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't see France accepting 6 further months with a hole in the single market.

I'd be surprised if they didn't implement checks.

That’s what the British are banking on; and yesterday, they had us just where they want us, eating out of their hand with the promise of a role in their World Cup bid

Kermit.de.frog

Jizique wrote: »

That’s what the British are banking on; and yesterday, they had us just where they want us, eating out of their hand with the promise of a role in their World Cup bid

I was not happy with the world cup thing.

That's a blatant bribe from the British side in my view.

I hope the unionist politicians in the north realise where the rethoric is taking that society.

https://twitter.com/AllisonMorris1/status/1367195015999598593

fly_agaric

McGiver wrote: »

Exactly.

There's no moral ground in higher league geopolitics where the Irish Republic, thanks to the EU membership, belongs. UK are a lesser team in that league now.

And as you said, the current UK regime (I'm happy that this term stuck as I started using it right at the beginning of BJ tenure), has zero moral ground, nothing. Zero trust and zero goodwill from the EU left.

The UK regime will be happy if they don't end up with economic sanctions or lawsuits invoked upon them if they continue speculating about unilateral actions and breaking international law.

There's a talk about a reset in the EU-UK relationship in April. Given that Frost is back in the game, I predict it won't help and the relationship gets worse. And after that I expect the EU to lose patience and use legal action to deal with the UK.

Yes, there are very few morals in geopolitics. If the UK government break the agreement they made about NI it will because they wish to do so and see some advantage in it for themselves or the UK.

The fiasco with the EU and Article 16 is irrelevant to that decision and all it might serve as is some (very) thin propaganda cover.
If it hadn't happened, the other pretexts they will bring up (or are bringing up) i.e. problems with getting sausages or soil from GB to NI, how intolerable it is that part of the UK Union should have such customs barriers etc or the hated EU having any say in what goes on there) would have stood on their own and be very popular with supporters and sufficient justification.

I don't like the "R" term really....They are democratically elected according to the UKs systems even if they seem pretty awful from the outside looking in.
Was thinking there today, there's not really too many governments like them in the "West" at present. I suppose govt.'s of Hungary and Poland might be similar but I have less knowledge of them and how they operate obviously as an Irish person stuck in my English language bubble.

Unfortunately I don't believe there's much prospect of any improved/smoother EU-UK relationship until the UK govt. ends and perhaps a lot of the curent gen. Tory politicians depart the scene (as all you'll ever get from pigs [when it comes to the EU] are grunts!). Even if they back down on this gambit, there'll be some other point of friction very soon.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't see how the EU can just let this go. They mention legal action in their statement but I don't know to what extent there is teeth in that.

I don't think it's going to intimidate the tories.

They should suspend ratification of the trade deal until commitments are complied with otherwise this will go on and on.

There are plenty of mechanisms in the agreement itself, well before it needs to be ditched.

But if it does go that far, then WTO it is and if the businesses of the UK think things are difficult now, wait until they actually have tariffs, and quotas etc.

The EU will have protected themselves against this, they are past masters are trade deals

CelticRambler

Those getting their knickers in a twist over what the EU's response might be (or not be) should remember that the NI Protocol is a separate agreement to the TCA. The NI Protocol has been signed, sealed and delivered, with the enforcement measures (procedures, sanctions and resolution) built in. The TCA, on the other hand, has been signed ... and that's it, as far as the EU is concerned. The British might have ratified it (in a rush, without reading it or - as far as we can deduce from subsequent venting - without fully understanding it); but it has not been ratified by the European Parliament, so everything that Johnson bragged about on Christmas Eve as a great deal for Britain can be withdrawn in a metaphorical moment without major consequences for the EU.

Patser

And just to add more fuel to Northern Ireland

https://twitter.com/AllisonMorris1/status/1367195015999598593


These are the Loyalist 'representatives', Foster met with last week basically saying they don't respect the Good Friday Agreement any more as they feel it was breached by the 'border in the Irish Sea


So today we have new breakdown in EU - UK relations, and a new threat of violence in the North

Kermit.de.frog

I trust therefore each and every loyalist paramilitary from these groups released on license as part of the 1998 agreement will hastily be returned to prison to see out their sentences?

They repudiate that agreement after all.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I trust therefore each and every loyalist paramilitary from these groups released on license as part of the 1998 agreement will hastily be returned to prison to see out their sentences?

They repudiate that agreement after all.

Loyalist groups signed up to the GFA...the DUP didn't.

Strazdas

Jizique wrote: »

That’s what the British are banking on; and yesterday, they had us just where they want us, eating out of their hand with the promise of a role in their World Cup bid

Rather pie in the sky. The chances of that bid being successful would be on the slim side. Not much of a bribe if the chances of it happening are not great.