Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Some posts from a Northern Ireland thread seem to have escaped and mixed in with the Brexit thread. But I think I've managed to separate them back out now

Infini

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

How can you even negotiate with a government like this? It is just lies, lies and more lies. If their word is meaningless, they will end up trade deals riddled with penalty clauses that will be enforced if they breech them.

For example, are they going to go into a US trade deal promising the earth, moon and stars to the US trade negotiator and then just rip that up a few weeks later when they decide something like a deal on agriculture is politically uncomfortable?

Or, is this a game they'd only play with the EU because they deem it a joke?

This is trashing the UK's reputation as a trustworthy entity to deal with.

Then what?

Lets be honest so long as the Torys control Britain it's gonna be a constant episode day in and day out of "The Brits are at it again". EU honestly could turn around and refuse to ratify the agreement or even better unilaterally start terminating Brexit related derogations in key area's to deliberaly light a fire under Boris's áss.

Kinda just tired of their games from AstraZenica to everything else. They should just basically turn around and show them exactly what the costs of underhandedness and blatent lying is all about.

Strazdas

Infini wrote: »

Lets be honest so long as the Torys control Britain it's gonna be a constant episode day in and day out of "The Brits are at it again". EU honestly could turn around and refuse to ratify the agreement or even better unilaterally start terminating Brexit related derogations in key area's to deliberaly light a fire under Boris's áss.

Kinda just tired of their games from AstraZenica to everything else. They should just basically turn around and show them exactly what the costs of underhandedness and blatent lying is all about.

There was a good Guardian article recently suggesting Britain needs to be in perpetual friction and tension with the EU. Brexit is a negative ideology and needs a scapegoat / hate figure to survive. It is predicated on relations being bad with the EU.

Akrasia

Infini wrote: »

Lets be honest so long as the Torys control Britain it's gonna be a constant episode day in and day out of "The Brits are at it again". EU honestly could turn around and refuse to ratify the agreement or even better unilaterally start terminating Brexit related derogations in key area's to deliberaly light a fire under Boris's áss.

Kinda just tired of their games from AstraZenica to everything else. They should just basically turn around and show them exactly what the costs of underhandedness and blatent lying is all about.

The EU shouldn’t do anything other than implement the terms of the WA in full

The EU officials actually read it and understand them unlike the vast majority of brexiteers

Let the UK violate it and then use the mechanisms in the WA for redress

Nothing is going to play well in the UK media but on the global stage, the EU will come out on top and be poised to take advantage of the UKs decline globally ( if they choose the path they are currently on)

Larbre34

Read the agreement! Read it and understand it!

Larbre34

Strazdas wrote: »

There was a good Guardian article recently suggesting Britain needs to be in perpetual friction and tension with the EU. Brexit is a negative ideology and needs a scapegoat / hate figure to survive. It is predicated on relations being bad with the EU.

So like a bold child having a tantrum, the best thing the EU can do is ignore them.

And not just passively so, but especially when they come looking to conclude sectoral agreements. They should be told 'we only engage with third countries who conduct their business in good faith. We have not seen good faith from you'

Widdensushi

Larbre34 wrote: »

Read the agreement! Read it and understand it!

You? Me? Eu? UK? Japan?

The UK's goal is for Ireland to put in a hard border. Once we have to do that to protect our EU membership, NI doesn't need a protocol.

2021 will be worse for EU-UK relations than the last five years combined.

Leroy42

Or to push the border issue so close to reality that Ireland will buckle, EU will consider it too small to start a trade war over with Covid still raging.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK's goal is for Ireland to put in a hard border.

I think after the last 5 years we can see that the UK has no goal, no long term plan.

They are stuck with Brexit, a long term losing strategy, and they are focused on tactics that will give them a short term win like a good headline for a day or two.

An utter failure of leadership.

Leroy42

This is where Starmer and Labour need to stand up.

Why are the UK taking this action, and now? What is not able to be ready on time and why?

Why demand transition extension when they ruled it out last year?

Last night on Newsnight the government minister claimed they were defending NI business. Defending from what? And why didn't they realise this when pushing the deal through?

What is the plan for the extension and what will have changed at the end of it?

How does this align with their claim that business needs certainty?

By any view this is an admission by the government that Brexit is going terribly.

dogbert27

Larbre34 wrote: »

Read the agreement! Read it and understand it!

How could you expect them to read and understand it in time when there were other more pressing matters like attending Nativity plays?!

Enzokk

While the announcement of David Frost, sorry Lord Frost :rolleyes:, being the new point of contact for the EU has some advantages, I think it is going to end in tears. He is a bureaucrat and an unelected one at that. He has no accountability and this is a dangerous person to be dealing with as his style is a lot more confrontational. I am sure that Sefcovic has been talking to Michel Barnier to find out what he can learn from him, but it is interesting that once Frost took over there is a flash point immediately.

It is also a stupid move to make. There was scope for movement with proper negotiations, especially when it comes to fishing, but just announcing this unilateral move is not the way to endear the other side to find solutions to your own problems. Why would the EU now try to make it easy for the UK in any area that is still up for negotiation?

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is where Starmer and Labour need to stand up.

Why are the UK taking this action, and now? What is not able to be ready on time and why?

Why demand transition extension when they ruled it out last year?

Last night on Newsnight the government minister claimed they were defending NI business. Defending from what? And why didn't they realise this when pushing the deal through?

What is the plan for the extension and what will have changed at the end of it?

How does this align with their claim that business needs certainty?

By any view this is an admission by the government that Brexit is going terribly.

Would Labour talking about this make a difference to the path Johnson will take? Will Johnson use Labour talking about Brexit to hammer them about it instead of focusing on the 100 000 plus dead due to his incompetence?

That is the only thing Labour will be thinking about when it comes to Brexit.

PeadarCo

https://www.ft.com/content/47fb3fdb-f3bb-403f-b83c-5a324960b1db

Interesting article in the Financial Times. To summarise the writer says that Brexiters will use the EU as a scapegoat for the failures of Brexit. It highlights some of the absurdities of their position such as being outraged by the EU enforcing rules contained in the agreement. Ultimately Brexiters still are not living with the reality that Brexit will not return the UK to being a global superpower akin to the US/China. Instead of looking at what they've done they are scapegoating the EU. Unfortunately for Northern Ireland it's yet again a pawn in the delusions of Brexiters.

Leroy42

No, it won't in of itself change the direction of the government. But it might lead to others asking similar questions. It might lead to pressure on individual MP's to answer the same questions from constituents. It might lead to the media actually doing its job. And it leads to Johnson having to actually account for his decisions, rather than at present be able to basically do anything as he faces no pushback.

One of the reasons, IMO, that the Tories as making such a haims of Brexit, is that they have never been forced to actually put down what the plan is. Brexit means Brexit, Get Brexit Done. The new phrase from last nights Newsnight is Defending NI business.

But they are never pushed on a plan, a goal, what the actual outcome will be.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, it won't in of itself change the direction of the government. But it might lead to others asking similar questions. It might lead to pressure on individual MP's to answer the same questions from constituents. It might lead to the media actually doing its job. And it leads to Johnson having to actually account for his decisions, rather than at present be able to basically do anything as he faces no pushback.

One of the reasons, IMO, that the Tories as making such a haims of Brexit, is that they have never been forced to actually put down what the plan is. Brexit means Brexit, Get Brexit Done. The new phrase from last nights Newsnight is Defending NI business.

But they are never pushed on a plan, a goal, what the actual outcome will be.

No it won't IMO. The only way the government changes their position on Brexit is if the media starts pushing them to change. If The Daily Mail, The Sun, The Express and the Telegraph is still riding the anti-EU train it really doesn't matter what Labour thinks. This should be clear already.

dogbert27

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or to push the border issue so close to reality that Ireland will buckle, EU will consider it too small to start a trade war over with Covid still raging.

How do you mean that Ireland will buckle? Do you think that after 5 years of this mess that the EU will desert Ireland after 2 months of Brexit because the UK can't get their sxxt together still?

If they push the border issue to creating a hard border they are risking the GFA which they have already been warned by the Biden administration will not be seen favourably by the US.

It's all just noise. It's like the "tough" kid in the school yard who'll throw insults and threats at you but if you confront them they back off. And then the next day they'll do exactly the same thing. All noise.

murphaph

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think Kermit you way underestimate EU solidarity with Ireland.

In a politically troubled EU, Ireland is the battleground for the single market, both as an ideology and a functioning entity. As with the Brexit process up to December, Brussels will do anything at all to make sure it works for us, with maximum damage limitation. There is nothing Britain can do by commission or omission to make us any less than an integral part of the single market, the soul of EU ideals.

They might try, but as we've seen for 5 years, Brussels holds the UK's economic bollox in its palm. Any misbehaviour results in a tight squeeze. Not to mention the shyt the UK sectoral interests would send Boris' way if they were further hamstrung by Tory policy.

Not only that but Ireland is a liberal, free and open democracy. Our core values are those of the European Union. The EU is fighting fires in Hungary and Poland which are sadly leaning towards authoritarianism. The last thing the EU will wish to do is open up another front on the west, with a friendly nation with very popular support of EU membership. Sometimes we forget that we are the very poster child of what the EU is all about, from economic development to the peace process. All built on EU principles.

Having said all that, we are the EU too. It's our responsibility to maintain the integrity of our single market too. Ultimately we will implement light touch border controls on commercial vehicles if the Brits break the WA and becomes essentially a hostile party to the agreement. There's only so much we can expect the EU to do for us. Would we accept for example, a free flow of goods, unchecked from the occupied areas into the Republic of Cyprus government controlled area of Cyprus? Not likely.

Sterling hasn't suffered on yesterday's unilateral move. It's been steadily strengthening against the euro for weeks. Today is no different.

murphaph

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

How can you even negotiate with a government like this? It is just lies, lies and more lies. If their word is meaningless, they will end up trade deals riddled with penalty clauses that will be enforced if they breech them.

For example, are they going to go into a US trade deal promising the earth, moon and stars to the US trade negotiator and then just rip that up a few weeks later when they decide something like a deal on agriculture is politically uncomfortable?

Or, is this a game they'd only play with the EU because they deem it a joke?

This is trashing the UK's reputation as a trustworthy entity to deal with.

Then what?

It's a good point actually. The Brits see the EU as a ragtag bunch of silly foreigners, to be messed about at will.

The rest of the world sees the EU as something much more akin to an economic superpower and a "USE" (even though it isn't).

The rest of the world sees a UK disregarding a treaty it has signed with a "big player". How much faith can other countries place in a UK that thumbs its nose at an EU they view in this way?

It's all about perception.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Sterling hasn't suffered on yesterday's unilateral move. It's been steadily strengthening against the euro for weeks. Today is no different.

Couple of factors here:

Britain has previously announced its intention to violate various agreement it has made in the course of Brexit, and then backed down. The markets may reckon that they are crying wolf again.

Plus, the announcement of intended breach is getting little traction (outside Ireland) — so far, at any rate — because it's buried in the budget.

Plus plus, it's still not clear what the reaction of the EU will be.

On the one hand, they've put out a statement expressing extreme displeasure and they could get quite nasty about it, if they chose to.

On the other hand, what the UK is threatening to do unilaterally - extending an arrangement that is already in place - doesn't look, in itself, to be a grossly bad idea. While the announcement of unilateral implementataion is classic Brexiter performative self-harm, the markets are used to the EU being the grown-up in the room, and they may think that there's a sporting chance that the EU will engage with the UK about the issue, and come up with some agreed tweak to the grace periods, so that the UK won't actually implement anything unilaterally.

Seth Brundle

Apparently Simon Coveney is after saying the following on Morning Ireland, which, while we all think it, is quite a statement for a government rep to make...
"EU is negotiating with a partner it cannot trust"

Headshot

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Apparently Simon Coveney is after saying the following on Morning Ireland, which, while we all think it, is quite a statement for a government rep to make...
"EU is negotiating with a partner it cannot trust"

Fair play to him, calling a spade a spade

BJs party is really rotten

fash

To me, the UK is using NI as it was intended - as a lever to destabilize its neighbour to gain concessions and gain some level of control - the same plan as Russia has with Crimea/eastern Ukraine, Abkhazia / South Ossetia in Georgia.
The UK is going to continue to do this to gain concessions until NI is no longer under its control. It is in our interest that that happens as soon as possible.

Edit: to add, it was only while the UK was part of the single market asking with Ireland that Ireland and the UK's interests coincided and there was some level of harmony. So long as the UK has control, I don't see the UK not making use of NI as a tool to gain concessions.

Seth Brundle

My above post about Simon Coveney was reported by Tony Connelly.
Tony is also saying that it looks like the EU will take legal action against the UK. The UK could find itself out in the cold very soon. I'd be curious to know what, if anything, Biden has said on the matter overnight.

Tony lists some avenues for legal action in the following twitter thread...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1367419215955828736

timetogo1

Ah well, at least it'll allow the UK to blame the EU for their own shortcomings for a few more years.
* I know that the blame is misplaced but it works for the Express / Mail / Telegraph readers.

Seth Brundle

Tony Connelly is also reporting that in the NI Assembly Ag Committee hearing, Perm Sec of DAERA Denis McMahon is saying the permanent checkpoint facilities would not be completed before the end of March 2022 despite the Uk government committing that they would be completed by mid-2021

J Mysterio

Nothing about this on the BBC. Kuenssberg hasn't mentioned it either. UK news focusing on Harry and Meghan, and trying to bury Sturgeon.

Amazing the vilification and condemnation thrown Sturgeons way when we have had countless scandals effectively ignored with Johnson, Hancock, Patel, Raab, etc. etc. etc. What a silly place.

dogbert27

J Mysterio wrote: »

Nothing about this on the BBC. Kuenssberg hasn't mentioned it either. UK news focusing on Harry and Meghan, and trying to bury Sturgeon.

Amazing the vilification and condemnation thrown Sturgeons way when we have had countless scandals effectively ignored with Johnson, Hancock, Patel, Raab, etc. etc. etc. What a silly place.

The one thing that cannot happen on a Tory watch is the breaking of the United Kingdom. Sturgeon is a serious threat so they are throwing everything at her to make her resign.
Hope she holds tough and follows the example of Boris et al and not resign.