Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

You’re still ignoring the question, but that’s not surprising seeing as you’ve convinced yourself that it didn’t happen.

Neither the EU nor the U.K. consulted us in either situation. This is a fact! Therefore as per my original point, the same. And also as per my original point, what annoys me the most about both times!

You keep repeating it.
There was effectively a proposal which was then put to us and we said absolutely not. Should they have asked us before they came up with the proposal?

Leroy42

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

You’re still ignoring the question, but that’s not surprising seeing as you’ve convinced yourself that it didn’t happen.

Neither the EU nor the U.K. consulted us in either situation. This is a fact! Therefore as per my original point, the same. And also as per my original point, what annoys me the most about both times!

OK, lets for the sake of argument go with your POV.

And what? What do you want done about this?

CelticRambler

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Neither the EU nor the U.K. consulted us in either situation. This is a fact! Therefore as per my original point, the same. And also as per my original point, what annoys me the most about both times!

Everyone is agreed that the UK didn't consult anyone about anything- the very definition of "unilateral action" and for which they have brought the threat of legal action against themselves; so you can stop harping on about that.

The Brexit referendum was announced in 2015; in 2015, the Irish government made it clear to the EU that they wanted to be consulted at every step of the way, should the result be in favour of Leave. It was, and we were consulted to such an extent that the whole of Brexit is predicated on the NI Protocol being enacted and enforced in a way that was and is acceptable to the Irish government. The proof: Britain has just exposed itself to legal action and international condemnation by disrespecting the Protocol, exactly as the Irish government would have wished; and the ratification by the EP of Johnson's Oven Ready Deal has been suspended.

What more do you want in the way of consultation? How many telephone calls over how many years do you think is sufficient? Because as far as the AZ-related non-event of January is concerned, the Irish government made one call to Brussels to point out that the draft proposal had a flaw, and the problem went away.

I'm not convinced the current Irish government is doing as good a job as the previous one, but the foundations laid by Varadkar, Coveney & Co. from 2015 to 2020 are probably the best any government has put in place to ensure Ireland's sovereignty since the creation of the state.

IN other Brexit related news, one of the trade barriers with the US appears to be getting closer to being resolved.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56279525

The US has agreed to suspend tariffs on UK goods including single malt whiskies that were imposed in retaliation over subsidies to the aircraft maker Airbus.

Tariffs will also be lifted on UK cheese, cashmere and machinery.

The duties will be suspended for four months while the two sides seek a long-term settlement.

On 1 January, the UK dropped its own tariffs on some US goods, put in place over a related dispute about US subsidies to Boeing.

NeuralNetwork

fash wrote: »

1. To gain concessions elsewhere (e.g. financial equivalence);
2. To keep Brexit going as a grievance issue for local politics;
3. To keep the NI protocol open as a grievance issue so that there is no "status quo" of being in the EU when NI gets to vote on the thing.

I think you also have to factor in a political and media culture that just hates the EU and has a notion that any agreement is not binding.

My view of the U.K. is that it’s England and some other countries that are considered irrelevant bolted onto England.

The result of that is Brexit is seen as something that England should be able to achieve and these pesky problems in the “Celtic fringes” are an annoyance to be bulldozed out of the way.

English politics and British politics are effectively one and the same thing while Northern Irish, Scottish ans incredibly Welsh politics are seen as at best a side show or at worst an irrelevance.

They may not have any objective or rational reason for doing what they’re doing. It’s just they’ve decades of storing up anti European sentiment and they aren’t moving away from that.

You’ve also got to look at the fact that they pushed Brexit thing, seemingly not even aware that they had an EU land border and not only that, but one of the most unstable and contested borders that has a huge role in what was one of the worst civil conflicts in modern Europe and one which only really began to end in the 1990s

None of that registers in England as they don’t see how it’s relevant to them or why they should care because their notions of the U.K. is that it’s England. It’s as simple as that really and I think that’s why Northern Ireland will continuously get dragged to around and damaged by this process.

As for their future relationship with with the EU, I’m just not sure how it will progress. They can’t just keep agreeing with fingers crossed behind their backs. It’s already destroyed their reputation as a trustworthy partner. Whether they’ll continue to treat treaties like that with other entities like the USA is still an open question.

I do think though it’s probably time Biden looked at what a government that looks like the GOP meets Downton Abbey is up to in Northern Ireland.

FrancieBrady

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

You’re still ignoring the question, but that’s not surprising seeing as you’ve convinced yourself that it didn’t happen.

Neither the EU nor the U.K. consulted us in either situation. This is a fact! Therefore as per my original point, the same. And also as per my original point, what annoys me the most about both times!

The EU made a mistake...are you reading posts? A 'mistake' that they owned up to and apologised for.

CelticRambler

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

unionists are never going to accept that they were sold a pup by endorsing Brexit.

They weren't so much sold a pup, as directly involved in selling the pup, thinking that it was a some kind of pure-bred designer dog that'd make them their fortune.

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

You’ve also got to look at the fact that they pushed Brexit thing, seemingly not even aware that they had an EU land border and not only that, but one of the most unstable and contested borders that has a huge role in what was one of the worst civil conflicts in modern Europe and one which only really began to end in the 1990s

None of that registers in England as they don’t see how it’s relevant to them or why they should care because their notions of the U.K. is that it’s England. It’s as simple as that really and I think that’s why Northern Ireland will continuously get dragged to around and damaged by this process.

As for their future relationship with with the EU, I’m just not sure how it will progress. They can’t just keep agreeing with fingers crossed behind their backs. It’s already destroyed their reputation as a trustworthy partner.

For the most part I agree with your synopsis, but I think that sooner or later - probably sooner - Tory-Brexit-England will reluctantly and begrudgingly realise that NI is always going to be the rock that stops their imperial bulldozer. Even if they can (unjustly) blame the EU for frustrating their dream of The One True Brexit, at some point they'll have make a choice between semi-permanent alignment with the EU to keep NI quiet, or to cut it off from the UK. That point, I think, will come in the run-up to the next Westminster elections.

Hurrache

Italy apparently has triggered the EUs export restriction against AstraZeneca, wonder will we get the same hysterics from Australia as we did from the UK that some are still harping on about.

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1367491763196358670

NeuralNetwork

Doubtful. The US has completely banned exports of vaccines and the U.K. appears to have de facto done the same but when the EU tries to restrict them to supply its domestic market, despite having one of the most dramatic outbreaks of COVID on the planet, we are apparently acting irrationally or somehow evil.

Australia is an extremely wealthy country with hardly any COVID issues. Italy has just barely recovered from one of the worst COVID outbreaks on the planet, but somehow the Italians are wrong and the Americans and British deserve no comment when they regulate exports like this.

The hypocrisy of it is beyond belief at times.

ancapailldorcha

Halfandhalf, no more provocative comments please. Your post has been removed.

NeuralNetwork

So the EU proposed to do something, made a bit of a PR disaster for itself but backtracked publicly and within hours before even beginning any process to trigger anything.

The U.K. is just proposing to ride roughshod ahead with a breech of an agreement, not even using a process.

People commented upon, discussed and were very angry with what the European Commission did. They apologised. They put protocols in place to ensure any moves involving the NI border would trigger an immediate consultation with Ireland.

But somehow the EU is bad and we should be utterly unable to step beyond that issue?

That makes absolutely no sense.

Brussels Sprout

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

So the EU proposed to do something, made a bit of a PR disaster for itself but backtracked publicly and within hours before even beginning any process to trigger anything.

The U.K. is just proposing to ride roughshod ahead with a breech of an agreement, not even using a process.

People commented upon, discussed and were very angry with what the European Commission did. They apologised. They put protocols in place to ensure any moves involving the NI border would trigger an immediate consultation with Ireland.

But somehow the EU is bad and we should be utterly unable to step beyond that issue?

That makes absolutely no sense.

It's almost as if it's a bad-faith, bode sides-ism argument.

eire4

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

So the EU proposed to do something, made a bit of a PR disaster for itself but backtracked publicly and within hours before even beginning any process to trigger anything.

The U.K. is just proposing to ride roughshod ahead with a breech of an agreement, not even using a process.

People commented upon, discussed and were very angry with what the European Commission did. They apologised. They put protocols in place to ensure any moves involving the NI border would trigger an immediate consultation with Ireland.

But somehow the EU is bad and we should be utterly unable to step beyond that issue?

That makes absolutely no sense.

Gaslighting that is basically what is going on and I think we will be seeing more and more gaslighting from the UK directed towards the EU to continue the Tory deflection as to what the UK has actually done to itself via brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

Winters wrote: »

Cant help but think this is all a media distraction from the budget announced yesterday by Sunak. The Brits reacting rather than having a long term plan.

Thing is the rules don't apply until next month so no change on the ground yet. So they can burn goodwill for a while yet.

Deleted User wrote: »

IN other Brexit related news, one of the trade barriers with the US appears to be getting closer to being resolved.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56279525

It's a four month suspension of tariffs for trade talks.

It comes three months after the UK dropped tariffs on US goods because that's how the special relationship works these days.


The budget means pandemic payments continue and suggests next year will be good but worse the years after that. The lockdown ending with the vaccine rollout.

My spidey sense is tingling. Too much feel good news coming out. It's unlikely but I can't rule out an early general election if it looks like the local elections are going well.


Meanwhile there's another ferry added to the Rosslare Dunkirk route.

An early election is extremely unlikely, why go to the polls when they already have a large majority.
It would not make any sense at all and would be seen as destabilising the current market trends.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

An early election is extremely unlikely, why go to the polls when they already have a large majority.
It would not make any sense at all and would be seen as destabilising the current market trends.

Because there's only so far they can go before hitting the self-imposed trade barriers that they agitated for repeatedly and doggedly in the form of Brexit.

Global Britain isn't going to happen tomorrow or a year from now if it is even possible. Right now they've presided over the swift development and administration of a vaccine and enjoy an unfit for purpose press which is ignoring the number of dead which is 124,000 as far as I know at the time of writing.

Recovery will be slow everywhere but in the UK, the stories aren't going to stop of businesses going bust because of Brexit. They're so desperate now they're even stooping to taking out fake news articles in the media which previously were working for them for nothing.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

An early election is extremely unlikely, why go to the polls when they already have a large majority.
It would not make any sense at all and would be seen as destabilising the current market trends.

Indeed, but the Tories also seem to be permanently in campaign mode (somewhat bizarrely seeing as the next election is not for over three years). Everything they do seems aimed at the base, especially the xenophobic and jingoistic voters.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: This is a forum for original posts. Please do not just paste outrageous text from other sites here. Thanks.

MBSnr

It seems the UK Gov has set aside funding in the budget to allow British citizens living outside of the UK to continue voting after 15 years. I’m not sure of the logic here, and I know it’s been on the cards for years before Brexit, but perhaps they assume that the majority that would be fussed to register and vote would be Conservative leaning. Would have been interesting to know how the 233k aboard registered in 2019 voted. Surely they’d be regretting their get Brexit done vote now if they did indeed vote Tory?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56265898

CelticRambler

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, but the Tories also seem to be permanently in campaign mode (somewhat bizarrely seeing as the next election is not for over three years). Everything they do seems aimed at the base, especially the xenophobic and jingoistic voters.

This is exactly how Trump & the GOP reacted to his election in 2016 - the campaigning never stopped; instead it became a substitute for meaningful governance. This is the fate that awaits the British people ... only without a meaningful opposition, so it seems.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

This is exactly how Trump & the GOP reacted to his election in 2016 - the campaigning never stopped; instead it became a substitute for meaningful governance. This is the fate that awaits the British people ... only without a meaningful opposition, so it seems.

Yes, you could argue it's straight out of the Trump playbook. Stay in campaign mode, strive to have a divided society and aim all of the propaganda at your own crowd. It seems a disastrous way to run a country, they just want power for power's sake.

Leroy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

An early election is extremely unlikely, why go to the polls when they already have a large majority.
It would not make any sense at all and would be seen as destabilising the current market trends.

Plan for an election in Q3, win it and you get 2 years back on the clock. Wait another year or two and who knows what could happen but polls currently show they would win a majority.

Johnson doesn't really care if its 40 or 80, its not enough to turn ones nose up at a potential extra 2 years

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Plan for an election in Q3, win it and you get 2 years back on the clock. Wait another year or two and who knows what could happen but polls currently show they would win a majority.

Johnson doesn't really care if its 40 or 80, its not enough to turn ones nose up at a potential extra 2 years

He has a clear run whenever he decides to go for it. Starmer's Labour is spineless.

Kermit.de.frog

I have noticed a marked uptick in articles and opinion pieces in the tory press in the last few days on the NI protocol.

I'm sure the govt here are more than aware of the campaign once again underway in GB against it and the briefing going on.

54and56

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

The EU publicised it’s plan, that’s how we found out! The decisions had been made before we found out. The two situations are the same.

Let me put it this way. Did either the EU or the U.K. contact us BEFORE deciding on a plan. No!!

Do you not understand the difference between actions which were proposed without consultation but not actioned (EU) and actions which were announced and implemented without consultation or are you being deliberately obtuse?

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I have noticed a marked uptick in articles and opinion pieces in the tory press in the last few days on the NI protocol.

I'm sure the govt here are more than aware of the campaign once again underway in GB against it and the briefing going on.

They can talk all they like, but have backed themselves into a corner. Everymove they have made over the last 5 years have let them weaker than before.

Of course they have options, but none of them solve the problem or are without serious negative consequences.

Cookie_Monster

Hurrache wrote: »

Italy apparently has triggered the EUs export restriction against AstraZeneca, wonder will we get the same hysterics from Australia as we did from the UK that some are still harping on about.

As someone living down this end of the world in New Zealand I can tell you Yes, there certainly is the same level of hysteria in Aussie news blaming the EU for being evil etc and hurting Australia.
I mean, its where Rupert Murdoch is from to be fair and Daily Telegraph and Herald Sun etc influence the news there

Peregrinus

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

As someone living down this end of the world in New Zealand I can tell you Yes, there certainly is the same level of hysteria in Aussie news blaming the EU for being evil etc and hurting Australia.
I mean, its where Rupert Murdoch is from to be fair and Daily Telegraph and Herald Sun etc influence the news there

As someone living in Australia, my perception is different. The story's not getting a lot of traction; it's being eclipsed by scandals of sexual predation at senior levels of government.

Plus: There's a general awareness that Australia has very low rates of Covid inefctions and deaths whereas Italy has had an unspeakably awful experience, which leads to a recognition that of course Italy is going to prioritise supplies to its own vaccination programme over exports to Australia; what government wouldn't in those circumstances?

The Australian government has expressed "disappointment" but has said that this won't affect the rollout of vaccination (which is stil at a very early stage here — much earlier than Europe). The shipment which has been embargoed wasn't factored into Australia's distribution plan for the coming weeks. And Australia's domestic production capacity — also of the AZ vaccine — comes on stream this week, so the need for imports is reduced.

So, all in all, not a big story. The usual professional outrage merchants are having a lash at it, but it's not getting much of a grip.

Australia operated its own export controls and bans for Covid-related supplies from March to December last year — not for vaccines, which until now Australia has not been producing, but for PPE, which we do produce. So we can't get too sniffy about others doing the same.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He has a clear run whenever he decides to go for it. Starmer's Labour is spineless.

Well, look what happened to the last guy? Although he was also spineless, any deviation from the norm is punished.

The British press is almost completely a propaganda outfit these days, and will be for decades. To some extent this kind of nationalism has echoes over here. Before 1916 most people were opposed to full independence. The executions changed all that but what happened next, after independence was a hardening of attitudes on both sides. A few years later and we are in a trade war with a country that then took 90% of our exports. That was insane but ... nationalism.

If you look at the Tory press you will see they are talking about the EU vaccine “disaster”. Most people in small countries should be aware that if it were a free for all then we would be worse off. Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the U.K. would get most of the supply. The EU agreement is fair. Without it all the big countries would be hoarding supply like the U.K.

Then there’s the total talking down of the EU economy. Yet it is the U.K. that was the worst performing last year , circa -11.5% drop. Where does that get them? Back to 2008 or before?

They condemn the EU for being protectionist yet, with one or two exceptions the U.K. have only managed to get trade agreements that are just a rollover from the EU agreements and then not all of them. A trite phrase is that the U.K. can now trade with the rest of the world where “95% of the growth is”. As if the EU couldn’t trade with the rest of the world. In fact the EU is inking up agreements with Canada, and South America right now. And has some kind of deal with China - which is where most of the growth is. The telegraph condemns that too. It’s all over the place.

Not that the EU is perfect. In fact the Canada deal might be a problem. It’s just that the attacks on it aren’t grounded in reality.

Seth Brundle

The UK Ambassador to Ireland has written a letter to the Irish Times which is obviously quite biased but also fails to mention so many things in its justification for the UK's actions...

Already in January we were seeing challenges in the operation of the protocol.
The EU’s decision at the end of the month to invoke Article 16 significantly undermined cross-community confidence.
...
we are taking a series of strictly temporary operational steps, reflecting the reality on the ground that more time is needed for business to adapt to the significant changes that were agreed only in mid-December.
These measures are lawful and consistent with a progressive and good faith implementation of the protocol
...
The measures will ensure that we can pursue the necessary discussions with the EU without immediate deadlines or cliff edges, and in order that we can seek rapidly to agree “workable solutions on the ground”, as both sides envisaged last month.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/british-ambassador-on-the-ni-protocol-1.4501531