Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

20silkcut wrote: »

But politically it turned out very successful for him.
He remained in power for a full decade after the economic war.

And finished up as President.

So the lesson (or warning) is that a Nationalist policy can remain popular even as it does a lot of economic damage.

Brexit and anti EU policies in the UK could be with us for a long time. Even if Labour were to get their act together for the next election and win, the Tories in opposition and their tame press would be even louder and Brexitier than they are now. Very hard for any UK politician to move closer to Europe any time soon, like the next 10 years.

Peregrinus

From an economic point of view De Valera's policies (and, before them, C na G policies) were damaging, there's no two ways about it.

You can argue the toss about whether they had some value from a nation-building point of view. That's a similar argument to the one Brexiters make with regard to sovereignty, but I don't think the parallels are very close. The effect on UK sovereignty of its EU membership was utterly trivial compared to the limitations on Irish sovereignty when Dev came to power, so there was a much stronger case in Ireland for accepting economic costs in order to do something about that. (I'm not saying it was a good case, but it would have been a much more plausible one than the one Brexiters make today.)

But I would say that I think the turning point actually came in the 1950s, not the 60s or 70s. New policies were adopted then which led to Ireland' long-term economic performance outstripping the UK from that point. It's just that we were so far behind that the effects of this didn't really start to show until the 60s/70s, and it was several decades before we could really see the benefit of it.

CelticRambler

the UK Ambassador wrote:

The measures will ensure that we can pursue the necessary discussions with the EU without immediate deadlines or cliff edges

:pac: :pac: :pac: Remind me again which Prime Minister repeatedly laid down unnecessary deadlines (all of which he missed) and insisted on sticking to avoidable cliff-edges? It wasn't the guy at the helm of the good ship Brexit-Britain, was it? :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The UK Ambassador to Ireland has written a letter to the Irish Times which is obviously quite biased but also fails to mention so many things in its justification for the UK's actions...



https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/british-ambassador-on-the-ni-protocol-1.4501531

Most of the "disruption" they talk of is complete and utter nonsense.

You'd think every shelf was devoid of food. This is not true. In fact most of the problems were exactly the same in GB at the beginning of January.

I see the local Larne County Council run by unionists rejected an invite to EU officials to come and see all this disruption the other day.

Why might one ask?

Because there is literally nothing to see.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

If you look at the Tory press you will see they are talking about the EU vaccine “disaster”. Most people in small countries should be aware that if it were a free for all then we would be worse off. Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the U.K. would get most of the supply. The EU agreement is fair. Without it all the big countries would be hoarding supply like the U.K.

How is the small country of Israel so far ahead of everyone else?
As well as that, the UK has administered 4 times as many doses per capita than the EU. "Fair" isn't all that matters. If there were zero vaccines across the EU that would be equitable and fair, we'd all be equal. But we wouldn't be happy, or at least I'd hope people wouldn't be so blind.
Despite the massive buying power of the bloc we're trailing the incompetent Brits massively. Hell even the yanks are at 3x the rate of the EU. The vaccination program so far has been shambolic.

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The UK Ambassador to Ireland has written a letter to the Irish Times which is obviously quite biased but also fails to mention so many things in its justification for the UK's actions...



https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/british-ambassador-on-the-ni-protocol-1.4501531

The joke is that the EU was apparently looking at some sort of extension, even before the UK actions. If they had just gone to the EU as the protocol outlines a extension could have been agreed with the need for all this drama.

This isn't about this particular issue though, this is still about the UK figuring out what they want from Brexit. The trade deal isn't even signed yet and they are undermining it already. There will need to be consequences from this for the UK or they will take it as a sign that they can do this again in the future.

It really is a shortsighted move by the UK and the kicker is that this was so unnecessary. If anything the steps they have taken has meant the discussions that need to take place to make it easier for business in NI will now be fractious and complex.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

The British press is almost completely a propaganda outfit these days, and will be for decades.

The phrase "client journalism" has never been used as much since Brexit, and took a jump when Covid arrived.

PeadarCo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How is the small country of Israel so far ahead of everyone else?
As well as that, the UK has administered 4 times as many doses per capita than the EU. "Fair" isn't all that matters. If there were zero vaccines across the EU that would be equitable and fair, we'd all be equal. But we wouldn't be happy, or at least I'd hope people wouldn't be so blind.
Despite the massive buying power of the bloc we're trailing the incompetent Brits massively. Hell even the yanks are at 3x the rate of the EU. The vaccination program so far has been shambolic.

The thing about the UK at least compared to Ireland is that the UK has opted for a different strategy for vaccinations. Most of the percentages you hear relate to the number of people who have got their first vaccine. Take a look at N Ireland only a tiny number relative to the Republic have got both doses. The strategy that each country opts for vaccinating people has nothing to do with the EU. Its irrelevant to the Brexit debate.

Hurrache

A good insight from a former UK negotiator with the EU. He's pretty critical of the UK in the thread, says they agreed to the protocol just to break the impasse at the time and win an election, but are now coming out swinging looking for a refund as they got their use out of it, which they need to stop.

https://twitter.com/NashSGC/status/1367583559297425412

20silkcut

20silkcut wrote: »

De Valera s actions in the 1930’s were very brexiteer-esque.
And from a very much weaker position.
And it worked out quite well for him in the end.
Even though the country went backwards until the mid 60’s.
With regard to brexit what conclusion do we take from that?

That it was the abandonment of De Valera’s policies that kick started economic growth?

ArmaniJeanss

Deleted User wrote: »

An early election is extremely unlikely, why go to the polls when they already have a large majority.
It would not make any sense at all and would be seen as destabilising the current market trends.

One reason may be if Johnson has made it known internally that he isn't going to stay beyond say, summer 2023.
So there'd be a temptation to get one more victory out of him sometime next year (he remains their biggest electoral asset) rather than face into a May 2024 election with a newbie PM.

Obviously the idea that Johnson would willingly give up this gig is something that splits people in two camps - those who think he'll aim to be the longest serving PM and those who think he'd happily take a 'Lordship' whilst making a fortune travelling around the world.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How is the small country of Israel so far ahead of everyone else?
As well as that, the UK has administered 4 times as many doses per capita than the EU. "Fair" isn't all that matters. If there were zero vaccines across the EU that would be equitable and fair, we'd all be equal. But we wouldn't be happy, or at least I'd hope people wouldn't be so blind.
Despite the massive buying power of the bloc we're trailing the incompetent Brits massively. Hell even the yanks are at 3x the rate of the EU. The vaccination program so far has been shambolic.

The fact is that the U.K. press is upping their one temporary advantage from being outside the EU and ignoring the larger collapse in their economy and the greater proportion of deaths. And as is pointed out fairly regularly they have a different strategy. Which isn’t necessarily a bad one. The EU is catching up on first vaccinations at any rate.

Leroy42

So temporary measures to deal with a crisis is perfectly reasonable and acceptable if the UK do it, but if the EU even think about it then it is significantly undermining cross-community confidence!

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

How is the small country of Israel so far ahead of everyone else?
As well as that, the UK has administered 4 times as many doses per capita than the EU. "Fair" isn't all that matters. If there were zero vaccines across the EU that would be equitable and fair, we'd all be equal. But we wouldn't be happy, or at least I'd hope people wouldn't be so blind.
Despite the massive buying power of the bloc we're trailing the incompetent Brits massively. Hell even the yanks are at 3x the rate of the EU. The vaccination program so far has been shambolic.

Being outside the EU means sod all. The government took multiple gambles that happened to pay off. There is no Brexit dividend in the vaccine story.

Kermit.de.frog

Another unilateral easement today

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1367771393681727490

This undermines our own epidemiological position within the single market.

The EU should be coming down like a ton of bricks.

The threat of mere legal action is not going to discourage the tories.

steddyeddy

For me the actions of the British government aren't the most surprising thing here. It's the fact that a large amount of the British public think that the UK are the victims in all of this.

timetogo1

steddyeddy wrote: »

For me the actions of the British government aren't the most surprising thing here. It's the fact that a large amount of the British public think that the UK are the victims in all of this.

I wonder how big that percentage is. I understand the Express / Daily Mail readers but I've some colleagues in work that live in the UK or are from the UK, pretty much all of those think this is a mess and don't blame the EU.
Obviously I'm in some bubble though and a lot of my peers would be in London.

steddyeddy

timetogo1 wrote: »

I wonder how big that percentage is. I understand the Express / Daily Mail readers but I've some colleagues in work that live in the UK or are from the UK, pretty much all of those think this is a mess and don't blame the EU.
Obviously I'm in some bubble though and a lot of my peers would be in London.

I worked in the lab in England and most of my colleagues thought the UK was at fault. Some didn't but their views on the EU matched up well with views on immigrants ect.

I don't think it's as simple as education = vote remain though. There's a lot of people I know who studied law ect at Oxford who support Brexit. I mean just look at the Brexit cheerleaders, a substantial number of whom attended Oxford.

serfboard

timetogo1 wrote: »

I've some colleagues in work that live in the UK or are from the UK, pretty much all of those think this is a mess and don't blame the EU.

And you'll find plenty of similar opinions on Twitter from non-London types.

Despite what the oligarch newpaper owners and their client politicians think, not every Brit is a fool.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Some off topic posts have been removed.

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Being outside the EU means sod all. The government took multiple gambles that happened to pay off. There is no Brexit dividend in the vaccine story.

Multiple gambles of which only one has so far appeared to have paid off, the others contributing greatly to the calamitous number of deaths and economic damage. That single, solitary apparent success remains very much to be seen given the amount of people who have admitted to breaking covid restrictions because they are half-inoculated and think "that's it; back to normal". The UK governments gamble around 12 week waiting times may very well come back to haunt given there seems to be such poor attempts to communicate to people that they have to wait 12 weeks before they are considered immunized and even then that will only really work once the vast majority of people have also had their two shots; herd immunity and all that, so in the meantime it is most certainly not back to normal.

The British press are spinning _harder than a hard thing_ regards Brexit and spinning so hard that they're just out of control at this point. Pravda would be blushing by comparison to be frank.

reslfj

Deleted User wrote: »

How is the small country of Israel so far ahead of everyone else?....

Israel sold the medical data for their entire population to Pfizer in return for enough early doses for all that want to be vaccinated (very few orthodox Jews).

This is not going to happen in the EU.

Nor will/would it be offered to individual EU members and especially not to any of the larger countries (lack of production capacity)

Lars

joeysoap

Also I was told by someone who would have some knowledge in the area that they ran 24 hour clinics

Kermit.de.frog

This quite a stunning statement

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1367793912342020098

They say they "recognise the need to ensure biosecurity on the island of Ireland" and then go ahead to undermine it in the same statement anyway.

Have they taken leave of their senses over there, or what?

J Mysterio

Brendan Boyle of the Ways and Means Committee outlines US view of UK lawbreaking.

Boyle is a strong friend of Ireland.

The UK are really not paying attention. Even the presenter here is like 'there was a problem, so we fixed it - easy'. Well, no, that's not how international law and diplomacy works.

https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1367755169035878400?s=20

The UK would want to backtrack quickly, but I think I saw in this thread earlier today that they are further breaking the rules as we speak. Lord give me strength.

cantwbr1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This quite a stunning statement

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1367793912342020098

They say they "recognise the need to ensure biosecurity on the island of Ireland" and then go ahead to undermine it in the same statement anyway.

Have they taken leave of their senses over there, or what?

Are the restrictions in the Protocol stricter than the pre-existing phytosanitary rules that were in place for years

Hurrache

I think the reality is that Johnson used the agreement to win an election and play to his base, didn't realise WTF was actually in it, they didn't allow a debate in parliament, and now realise how awful Brexit is and trying to provoke the EU in returning to the negotiating table as they don't have the courage to hold their hands up to how much of a mess they're in.

And what perfect timing this is with their concerted witch hunt of Sturgeon. Will he media lead with calls for his resignation?

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1367827893942902784

Leroy42

One thing that continues to baffle me is that with all this talk of the Eu needing to be pragmatic, for the unilateral implementation of extended transition, ministers saying they are defending the UK.

It all shows just how poor the deal actually was that Johnson, the government and the HoC signed up to yet nobody seems to be asking the government that question.

Why sign up to a deal that was so much against the interests of the UK (ok we all know they signed it to win an election but they cant say that).

schmoo2k

Leroy42 wrote: »

One thing that continues to baffle me is that with all this talk of the Eu needing to be pragmatic, for the unilateral implementation of extended transition, ministers saying they are defending the UK.

It all shows just how poor the deal actually was that Johnson, the government and the HoC signed up to yet nobody seems to be asking the government that question.

Why sign up to a deal that was so much against the interests of the UK (ok we all know they signed it to win an election but they cant say that).

I suspect Boris is playing a long game:
1. He really wants a hard WTO style Brexit, but knew the Tory party wouldn't vote for it.
2. So he pushes through any old deal at the 11th hour as a populist "I got Brexit done" - even though the EU were offering extensions for the UK to review the deal.
3. Spin machine goes into overload, every bad detail that gets enforced is EU not playing fair
4. He will now keep needling the EU until they tear up the agreement, he gets what he wants at the same time appealing to the core Brexit supporters.

Its like breaking up with your girlfriend by being meaner and meaner until they break up with you.

Seth Brundle

Personally, I think that he rushed through the current agreement without too much thought.
Now that he realises it doesn't suit him, by getting some or all of the EU to not ratify it, he will try and negotiate for a new agreement (which he hopes will be more favoourable for him).