Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

^^^^
excellent post and thanks for linking the "we all partied." I've already seen some FF apologists trying to deflect with the same "we all partied" for their disastrous "meaningful christmas".

That journalist is stoking confrontation, but then that's how Bojo advanced his profile with the public, setting the public against the EU.

BonnieSituation

yagan wrote: »

^^^^
excellent post and thanks for linking the "we all partied." I've already seen some FF apologists trying to deflect with the same "we all partied" for their disastrous "meaningful christmas".

That journalist is stoking confrontation, but then that's how Bojo advanced his profile with the public, setting the public against the EU.

That's the thing, she's actually completely correct in what she's saying. It's just that you sometimes should keep that to yourself.

fly_agaric

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's worrisome that he is so easily led as seen during the A16 meltdown. So this will not inspire confidence.

He was not great on that alright, IMO the "both sides" comment was poor.

However I think there's a wider problem in that politicians here have no experience at all of malice directed at Ireland from the UK govt. really.

All they know is positive relations, the GFA, British PMs making apologetic noises about the past, the Queen visiting, hands across the water and all that good stuff.

We've had years of revisionism and apologetics about the violent birth of this country + the part of their political forebears in it as well, so its going to be quite hard for them (and maybe the civil service/"institutional" state too) to wrap their noodles around the new era where the UK government is not to be trusted at all.

edit: I suppose you could argue the pre Brexit period and how the UK approached it should have been a learning experience, but Theresa May handled alot of that. I think this govt. + the PM are considerably worse (from an Irish pov).

PeadarCo

yagan wrote: »

^^^^
excellent post and thanks for linking the "we all partied." I've already seen some FF apologists trying to deflect with the same "we all partied" for their disastrous "meaningful christmas".

That journalist is stoking confrontation, but then that's how Bojo advanced his profile with the public, setting the public against the EU.

What do the FF actions of nearly two decades ago(the decisions that led to the banks going bust occurred in the early to mid 00's) have to do with Brexit?

yagan

fly_agaric wrote: »

He was not great on that alright, IMO the"both sides" comment on that was poor.

However I think there's a wider problem in that politicians here have no experience at all of malice directed at Ireland from the UK govt. really.

All they know is good relations, the GFA, British PMs making apologetic noises about the past, the Queen visiting, hands across the water and all that good stuff.

We've had years of revisionism and apologetics about the violent birth of this country + the part of their political forebears in it as well, so its going to be quite hard for them (and maybe the civil service too) to wrap their noodles around the new era where the UK government is not to be trusted at all.

Not to go off topic but I think since the Belfast Agreement Fianna Fail actually lost their reason to exist, trading in their soul to bankers and developers at the Galway tent and now all they've left is tactics and no strategy.

Martin is trying to be on both sides in the biggest geopolitical displacement in Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall, which is actually contrary to our interests as we're firmly in the EU camp.

Perhaps that tweet is a trap for Martin to set up himself as appearing pro british at a time when British nationalists in NI are disowning democracy, which if happens could finally cause the FF split that many survivors like O'Cuiv and McGuinness have been hinting is inevitable.

BonnieSituation

fly_agaric wrote: »

He was not great on that alright, IMO the"both sides" comment on that was poor.

However I think there's a wider problem in that politicians here have no experience at all of malice directed at Ireland from the UK govt. really.

All they know is positive relations, the GFA, British PMs making apologetic noises about the past, the Queen visiting, hands across the water and all that good stuff.

We've had years of revisionism and apologetics about the violent birth of this country + the part of their political forebears in it as well, so its going to be quite hard for them (and maybe the civil service too) to wrap their noodles around the new era where the UK government is not to be trusted at all.

How come Varadkar, Kenny, Coveney et al could handle the UK so with a bit more force and aplomb?

Even Gilmore's performances post-Crash were better than what FF have been offering up.

It has nothing to do with "lack of experience of their malice" to paraphrase your goodself, it's to do with a ability.

BonnieSituation

PeadarCo wrote: »

What do the FF actions of nearly two decades ago(the decisions that led to the banks going bust occurred in the early to mid 00's) have to do with Brexit?

It's 13 years ago and it's very relevant.

The same actors are on the stage so we have to be able to trust that they know their lines. Unfortunately it feels more like an Ed Wood movie than something from Scorsese and I really don't want to have to buy a ticket.

PeadarCo

Hurrache wrote: »

I think the reality is that Johnson used the agreement to win an election and play to his base, didn't realise WTF was actually in it, they didn't allow a debate in parliament, and now realise how awful Brexit is and trying to provoke the EU in returning to the negotiating table as they don't have the courage to hold their hands up to how much of a mess they're in.

And what perfect timing this is with their concerted witch hunt of Sturgeon. Will he media lead with calls for his resignation?

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1367827893942902784

The problem is we are facing a situation where Brexiters won't face up to the compromises inherent with any trade deal never mind when dealing with the UKs biggest trade partner the EU. A better deal ie less disruption for business involves pooling more sovereignty with the EU. The less sovereignty pooled the more difficult trade will be. This compromise is never going to go away.

The issues faced by many businesses are a direct result of going it alone. Yes they might be able to reopen the deal but in the grand scheme of things so what. They will never be able to have their cake and eat it. So even a new trade deal with the EU is going to face the same compromise. The question when will the opposition/people in the UK grow up to the reality of what trade talks involve.

All they are doing is sabotaging any future trade deals with the EU and other countries. Who will trust the UK after all this rubbish?

yagan

PeadarCo wrote: »

What do the FF actions of nearly two decades ago(the decisions that led to the banks going bust occurred in the early to mid 00's) have to do with Brexit?

My point is under FG there was never any ambiguity about Ireland's place in the EU during the Brexit discussions.

Now we have a party leading government that shamelessly went from boasting about the cheapest bailout in history to blaming the EU for it when the guarantee blew up in their face!

Coveney sees the bigger picture, our long term future in the EU, whereas Martin merely reacts without the bigger picture, making our relationship ambiguous. Telling the French that looking after their interests is Brit Bashing was an absolute own goal.

Martin doesn't seem to have internalised how serious a divergence Brexit is in Europe.

PeadarCo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's 13 years ago and it's very relevant.

The same actors are on the stage so we have to be able to trust that they know their lines. Unfortunately it feels more like an Ed Wood movie than something from Scorsese and I really don't want to have to buy a ticket.

Well the finance minister who announced the bank bail out is dead. Bertie and Cowen are long gone from public life particularly Cowen. I understand having issues with the current government but don't see what relevance actions of 13 plus years ago have to do with Brexit. FF today is a pale shadow of the party that dominated Irish politics for decades.

BonnieSituation

yagan wrote: »

My point is under FG there was never any ambiguity about Ireland's place in the EU during the Brexit discussions.

Now we have a party leading government that shamelessly went from boasting about the cheapest bailout in history to blaming the EU for it when the guarantee blew up in their face!

Coveney sees the bigger picture, our long term future in the EU, whereas Martin merely reacts without the bigger picture, making our relationship ambiguous. Telling the French that looking after their interests is Brit Bashing was an absolute own goal.

Martin doesn't seem to have internalised how serious a divergence Brexit is in Europe.

FF were members of the UEN until 2009 and had to be dragged to join ALDE.

Their own Euroscepticism isn't ever commented upon, but it's clear that it bubbles under the surface when you see how they've handled anything EU related the last year.

FF are at death's door to my mind so it's not surprising that MM is trying to drag the arse out of his occupancy of Merrion St. They won't be back.

But to go back to the substantive point; the malevolent govt across the water combined with a pliant top dog here has potential to create a perfect storm of horror for us.

Just thank Christ that Coveney stayed in DFAT.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Take the Irish stuff to a different thread please. Thanks.

fly_agaric

BonnieSituation wrote: »

How come Varadkar, Kenny, Coveney et al could handle the UK so with a bit more force and aplomb?

Even Gilmore's performances post-Crash were better than what FF have been offering up.

It has nothing to do with "lack of experience of their malice" to paraphrase your goodself, it's to do with a ability.

Yeah I don't disagree they are just better (at that aspect of politics) than Martin.
Delivering speeches/comments with the right note and acting statesmanlike is one thing.

How to actually respond and act + what decisions to make if the UK carries on down the path it seems to be on is a much harder problem, and would be where my comment comes in.

It is outside of their past experience, outside all our experience really.

edit: didn't see post above when I submitted this - apologies

Kermit.de.frog

The Irish Times this evening hinted at what I have been warning about regarding Ireland and the single market and our vulnerability.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/irish-times-view-on-the-northern-ireland-protocol-british-government-waives-the-rules-1.4502412?mode=amp

What now? EU legal action is unlikely to be speedy enough to effect a reversal before October when the revised grace period is due to expire, although pressure from member states on Ireland to introduce retaliatory Border checks to protect the internal market may also be unlikely to kick in in that timeframe.

MICKEYG

We may be heading for a hard brexit after all. If this comes to pass maybe now is the time for politicians in the south and nationalist parties in the north to approach the Republican paramilitaries and say
"Lads, we may need to set up a border on the island. We understand that this is against all you stand for, but hold tight. When hard brexit kicks in and it's implications hit people's pockets, a united Ireland through the ballot box will be inevitable"

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times this evening hinted at what I have been warning about regarding Ireland and the single market and our vulnerability.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/irish-times-view-on-the-northern-ireland-protocol-british-government-waives-the-rules-1.4502412?mode=amp

ANd then a hard border will have to go up. End of. There is no way around it.

The WA and trade deal were a compromise from both sides, if one side (the UK in this case) no longer want to honour that compromise then we are back to stage 1, where we were 5 years ago.

Al TM was fond of saying, nothing has changed. The Brexit vote meant that the border situation was going to change. The WA was the best way, agreed by all, to avoid the worst, but not all if the issues.

But the issues still exist and lamenting the fall towards this worse option does not make it go away. And there is almost nothing that Ireland or the EU can go about it if the UK have their faces set on that particular course.

Sam Russell

MICKEYG wrote: »

We may be heading for a hard brexit after all. If this comes to pass maybe now is the time for politicians in the south and nationalist parties in the north to approach the Republican paramilitaries and say
"Lads, we may need to set up a border on the island. We understand that this is against all you stand for, but hold tight. When hard brexit kicks in and it's implications hit people's pockets, a united Ireland through the ballot box will be inevitable"

That is nonsense. There is no way the Irish Gov could possibly take that approach.

We have friends in Europe and Friends in Washington. They will be there for us. They both can speak softly and carry a big stick.

Leroy42

What other approach is there? Is the UK decide that they will no longer apply the WA, then what? Having friends if great, but it doesn't change the facts.

If the UK pull out of the WA, then a border has to go up.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

What other approach is there? Is the UK decide that they will no longer apply the WA, then what? Having friends if great, but it doesn't change the facts.

If the UK pull out of the WA, then a border has to go up.

The withdrawal from the WA and NI protocol would be viewed as a default. That would be huge and result in sanctions. Not a good place for anyone.

Mr.Nice Guy

Leroy42 wrote: »

What other approach is there? Is the UK decide that they will no longer apply the WA, then what? Having friends if great, but it doesn't change the facts.

If the UK pull out of the WA, then a border has to go up.

The UK want a trade deal with the US. They won't get that by taking such a position. Brendan Boyle reiterated that on Newsnight:

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1367617743210561538

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

If the UK pull out of the WA, then a border has to go up.

If the UK pull out of the WA, the TCA becomes null and void. Then an even harder border goes up in the English Channel - tariffs and quotas on everything.

ath262

CelticRambler wrote: »

If the UK pull out of the WA, the TCA becomes null and void. Then an even harder border goes up in the English Channel - tariffs and quotas on everything.

plus extensive compliance checks on food items (SPS), various regulatory checks, control over haulage, flights and aviation certification, financial company dealing etc

Leroy42

Yes, all that is true, but a hard border would still need to go up to protect the SM and to enable Ireland to remain within it.

Not getting a trade deal from the US won't change that. Having tariffs and quotas won't change that. Extensive compliance checks etc won't change it.

The UK must know all the negatives to not going with the WA, and yet they seem entirely focused on making the WA out as the worst possible outcome. I am merely saying that if that is where they want to go, there really is nothing that anyone can do about it. We will of course continue to point out the absurdity of that choice, but they seem to be of the mindset that once it is hurting someone else then they win.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, all that is true, but a hard border would still need to go up to protect the SM and to enable Ireland to remain within it.

Not getting a trade deal from the US won't change that. Having tariffs and quotas won't change that. Extensive compliance checks etc won't change it.

Tariffs, quotas and compliance checks won't make the requirement for a hard border go away, but putting those checks in place on the English Channel, where the infrastructure is up and ready and well away from antsy Unionists, will be a hell of a lot quicker to bring onstream than any checks on the island of Ireland; and the effect on GB business of such new barriers, when they're still struggling to understand and cope with the current controls, would be devastating.

In such a scenario, Johnson & Co could blame the EU all they wanted, but everyone whose personal and business life is up-ended will find out, one way or another, that it was a deliberate choice to sacrifice their financial wellbeing so that a bunch of cantankerous Paddies could eat British egg sandwiches. As was pointed out in earlier posts, at the end of the day, this is English politics at play, and English voters won't be happy if they know that Johnson/Gove/Frost's stupidity cost them their jobs.

Leroy42

Yes, but you are failing to take into account that sovereignty seems to be valued at the same, or even maybe higher, than the costs. And it is easy to argue why when the benefits of sovereignty are so easy stated as Global Britain and future trade deals. They have been living of it for the last 5 years, why stop now?

So while we can all agree that the WA, a border between NI and GB is the least of the two evils, that is looking at this logically, when I am not sure that that is how they are thinking at all. This seems to be less about reality and more about some fancy notion of itself.

If, and at the moment it is a big if, but if the UK do continue to put sovereignty above economics then there really is only one outcome, a Hard border on the island.

FWIW, I don't think they will get to that point. History of the last 5 years tells us that they will kick and scream and act the hard man but ultimately they are aware of the real issues that they will face, economically and then politically, of they go down that route. That is exactly why they went with the WA in the 1st place, although it apparently was something no PM could ever agree to.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times this evening hinted at what I have been warning about regarding Ireland and the single market and our vulnerability.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/irish-times-view-on-the-northern-ireland-protocol-british-government-waives-the-rules-1.4502412?mode=amp

Tony Connelly again raising this issue today (listen from 23 minutes)...

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0305/1201293-podcast-brexit-republic-unilateral-thinking/

It's quite worrying really.

reslfj

CelticRambler wrote: »

If the UK pull out of the WA, the TCA becomes null and void. Then an even harder border goes up in the English Channel - tariffs and quotas on everything.

The EU is very reluctant to engage in any punishment action let alone a (trade, rule, regulation) war with the UK. There are no winners.

But make no mistake. The EU knows better than anyone how trade wars works and how they are managed so the other side will pay most of the bills.
The result of almost any EU-UK confrontation will end as bad-BAD.

Even if the UK breaks the NIP, a wise Admiral will try to choose the site for confrontation where the other side is the weakest.

If forced into a confrontation the EU will NOT 'fight' on the island of Ireland, but between English ports / airports and the European Continent.

Such a fight will be about trade and ultimately about money, where the UK doesn't have a chance in hell.
Germany alone has a far larger economy with much less debt. And Germany is not alone having a good economy within the EU.

Lars

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Tony Connelly again raising this issue today (listen from 23 minutes)...

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0305/1201293-podcast-brexit-republic-unilateral-thinking/

It's quite worrying really.

What are you worried about?

Either Ireland will effectively join UK outside the SM or it puts up a border and remains within it.

They way around that choice was the WA but if the UK won't live with that then we are back to where we started.

All indicators point to Ireland choosing EU, so a border.

Its not what anyone wants, but is always was and remains the likely outcome if the UK continues down this path.

View

CelticRambler wrote: »

Tariffs, quotas and compliance checks won't make the requirement for a hard border go away, but putting those checks in place on the English Channel, where the infrastructure is up and ready and well away from antsy Unionists, will be a hell of a lot quicker to bring onstream than any checks on the island of Ireland; and the effect on GB business of such new barriers, when they're still struggling to understand and cope with the current controls, would be devastating.

In such a scenario, Johnson & Co could blame the EU all they wanted, but everyone whose personal and business life is up-ended will find out, one way or another, that it was a deliberate choice to sacrifice their financial wellbeing so that a bunch of cantankerous Paddies could eat British egg sandwiches. As was pointed out in earlier posts, at the end of the day, this is English politics at play, and English voters won't be happy if they know that Johnson/Gove/Frost's stupidity cost them their jobs.

If the WA and EU-U.K. FTA collapse then Ireland must put up a hard border. Failing to do so would be both a breach of WTO and a massive breach of EU rules by us.

The issue of checks elsewhere in the EU is irrelevant to the requirements on us to honour our WTO and EU obligations. France operating tough checks does not excuse us for failing to operate any checks (or “lip-service” ones) - rather we must operate equally tough checks.

And, no there is no excuse. We have known for years that Brexiters are willing to play games over NI, so there is absolutely no excuse for us not having had a comprehensive detailed plan for a hard border drawn up and ready to go if needed. As with the Emergency Services, you may never want to have to call them out but that doesn’t mean there is any excuse for not having them ready to roll should you need them to do so.

Kermit.de.frog

Leroy42 wrote: »

What are you worried about?

Either Ireland will effectively join UK outside the SM or it puts up a border and remains within it.

They way around that choice was the WA but if the UK won't live with that then we are back to where we started.

All indicators point to Ireland choosing EU, so a border.

Its not what anyone wants, but is always was and remains the likely outcome if the UK continues down this path.

I don't think the govt will choose the single market (or at least "full" membership) over a border and likely return to violence.

I also don't think US administration would accept it from Ireland any more than they do the UK - assuming it's us choosing a border.

I think we'll be dragged out or as Tony Connelly puts it - some sort of yellow pack membership. I think that is where this is going tbh.

This country has sharp decisions to make soon if the UK don't start taking things more seriously.

And i'm highly critical of MM. He is not tough enough for this. He wants to be all things to all people and all about concensus.

There is going to winners and losers here.

It's either us or the unionists and the tories.

Who is it going to be?

He needs to start understanding this is binary. It can't be fudged.

Leo understood it.