Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Wolf359f

Just a question. Most of the talk is referencing Ireland and the UK and a border and being under pressure from the EU about maintaining the integrity of the single market. What happens when someone like China refuses Irish milk and in turn EU in the form of baby formula as they cannot (or more so the EU) guarantee it's all EU/SM milk derived. Same for other EU countries who export worldwide. When does it become a serious issue of trust, not only with the EU, but also EU customers. If there was an issue/outbreak like BSE in the UK and the EU cannot guarantee meat from the UK has entered the Irish food chain and in turn the EU, that can have serious ramifications EU wide.
The foundation of the SM was regulatory alignment, if one country goes off book, it can cause massive knock on effects.

I know food is highly regulated and tracked in the EU, I was just using it as an example. Substandard widgets produced in the UK, shipped to NI (without checks)and introduced into the SM via Ireland (without checks) and exported worldwide?

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't think the govt will choose the single market (or at least "full" membership) over a border and likely return to violence.

I also don't think US administration would accept it from Ireland any more than they do the UK - assuming it's us choosing a border.

I think we'll be dragged out or as Tony Connelly puts it - some sort of yellow pack membership. I think that is where this is going tbh.

This country has sharp decisions to make soon if the UK don't start taking things more seriously.

And i'm highly critical of MM. He is not tough enough for this. He wants to be all things to all people and all about concensus.

There is going to winners and losers here.

It's either us or the unionists and the tories.

Who is it going to be?

He needs to start understanding this is binary. It can't be fudged.

Leo understood it.

The Single Market has existed for 25 years. The idea of a full EU member withdrawing or semi withdrawing or being forced out of it because of SM rules sounds utterly bonkers / insane - the rules were never drawn up with the intention of forcing countries to leave against their will.

Junkyard Tom

If Britain goes to a North Korea style Brexit then whatever would have to happen in Ireland as regards borders would be a picnic compared to the south coast of England. The British government would come under severe pressure internally and externally to solve the crisis and the first order of business, from our perspective in the EU, would be sorting out trade arrangements in Ireland.

Akrasia

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't think the govt will choose the single market (or at least "full" membership) over a border and likely return to violence.

I also don't think US administration would accept it from Ireland any more than they do the UK - assuming it's us choosing a border.

I think we'll be dragged out or as Tony Connelly puts it - some sort of yellow pack membership. I think that is where this is going tbh.

This country has sharp decisions to make soon if the UK don't start taking things more seriously.

And i'm highly critical of MM. He is not tough enough for this. He wants to be all things to all people and all about concensus.

There is going to winners and losers here.

It's either us or the unionists and the tories.

Who is it going to be?

He needs to start understanding this is binary. It can't be fudged.

Leo understood it.

‘You don’t think’ wrong. Our government won’t sacrifice our future over threats of violence from a group of cowardly unionist thugs

Our future is an independent nation in a union of equals, not the subservient lapdog of an expired empire

Anything the British do to try to spark violence in the north will just make a United Ireland more likely to happen sooner and on better terms for the Irish

‘Great Britain’ has been an anachronism for quite a while soon it will be a subject in history class

Timistry

5 years now of these nonsense. Time for the EU to flex both the financial and legal muscle and lay down the law as was agreed.

Severely punish any deviations, again, as agreed.

View

Akrasia wrote: »

‘You don’t think’ wrong. Our government won’t sacrifice our future over threats of violence from a group of cowardly unionist thugs

Our future is an independent nation in a union of equals, not the subservient lapdog of an expired empire

Anything the British do to try to spark violence in the north will just make a United Ireland more likely to happen sooner and on better terms for the Irish

‘Great Britain’ has been an anachronism for quite a while soon it will be a subject in history class

So far, in the Brexit process, we are doing a pretty good impression of being a “subservient lapdog of an expired empire“ as we have prioritised cuddling up to Brexit Britain over standing up for our EU neighbours, while insisting that they stand up for us. Case in point our refusal to join Schengen and our insistence on having borders with our fellow EU countries, so that we can continue to be part of the U.K. CTA (and it is a U.K. CTA as they call the shots on it).

Nate--IRL--

View wrote: »

So far, in the Brexit process, we are doing a pretty good impression of being a “subservient lapdog of an expired empire“ as we have prioritised cuddling up to Brexit Britain over standing up for our EU neighbours, while insisting that they stand up for us. Case in point our refusal to join Schengen and our insistence on having borders with our fellow EU countries, so that we can continue to be part of the U.K. CTA (and it is a U.K. CTA as they call the shots on it).

Schengen and the CTA are not part of the Brexit process.

Nate

Strazdas

View wrote: »

So far, in the Brexit process, we are doing a pretty good impression of being a “subservient lapdog of an expired empire“ as we have prioritised cuddling up to Brexit Britain over standing up for our EU neighbours, while insisting that they stand up for us. Case in point our refusal to join Schengen and our insistence on having borders with our fellow EU countries, so that we can continue to be part of the U.K. CTA (and it is a U.K. CTA as they call the shots on it).

The CTA is not just about borders and passports but about social welfare, healthcare, housing benefits and the right to vote in the other country. If you scrapped the CTA, you would get rid of all the above.

Kermit.de.frog

On to trade for a moment. The Welsh ports are being absolutely skittled. I believe Holyhead area constituency was pro Brexit too and has a pro Brexit MP.


https://twitter.com/Rosslareuroport/status/1367386795038683138


And here is a British "expat" store that has to fill up on Irish goods because they can't get supplies from the UK.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1367879492971229189


All this would appear to indicate catastrophic supply chain difficulties for the UK in to the EU.

Wolf359f

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

On to trade for a moment. The Welsh ports are being absolutely skittled. I believe Holyhead area constituency was pro Brexit too and has a pro Brexit MP.


https://twitter.com/Rosslareuroport/status/1367386795038683138


And here is a British "expat" store that has to fill up on Irish goods because they can't get supplies from the UK.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1367879492971229189


All this would appear to indicate catastrophic supply chain difficulties for the UK in to the EU.

I have to say, I knew we would need extra ferry capacity to bypass the landbridge, but I think the sheer amount of extra sailings is way past what I ever imagined. Maybe the holly head sailing was so short, we never realized how many a day they do?

I'd say without the pandemic, or past it, it may make a lot of Irish people consider a nice week holiday driving through France and Spain.

Kermit.de.frog

Wolf359f wrote: »

I have to say, I knew we would need extra ferry capacity to bypass the landbridge, but I think the sheer amount of extra sailings is way past what I ever imagined. Maybe the holly head sailing was so short, we never realized how many a day they do?

I'd say without the pandemic, or past it, it may make a lot of Irish people consider a nice week holiday driving through France and Spain.

For decades there was the mindset that we had to use the land bridge for some reason. I guess it was just embedded.

It's been exposed now that that was never the case (at least in the last 20 to 30 years). It was just something we did.

The hauliers won't go back to that now.

Charles Babbage

View wrote: »

So far, in the Brexit process, we are doing a pretty good impression of being a “subservient lapdog of an expired empire“ as we have prioritised cuddling up to Brexit Britain over standing up for our EU neighbours, while insisting that they stand up for us. Case in point our refusal to join Schengen and our insistence on having borders with our fellow EU countries, so that we can continue to be part of the U.K. CTA (and it is a U.K. CTA as they call the shots on it).

This is not because of a craven attitude to the Empire but because that Empire continues in the northern part of the country.



But then, you already know that.

The idea of checks between Ireland and the EU to protect the Single Market is plausible, but I cannot see trade between the UK-EU continuing under TCA terms while that was happening. It would be such an extreme event, and a complete defeat and humiliation for the EU, I imagine trade embargoes between GB and the EU would happen before it.

For some reason, many Irish people still think the EU doesn't care about Ireland or its smaller members in general. The same EU that nearly went No Deal and spent years focusing on Ireland. It doesn't make sense that within months, the EU would simply tell us to check all exports while maintaining good relations with GB.

blah blah Article 16 blah blah.

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

The idea of checks between Ireland and the EU to protect the Single Market is plausible

That's Ireland defacto out of the single market. Against it's will.

It's a risk but right now there is a hole in the single market and the coastal countries in Europe won't tolerate that for very long.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's Ireland defacto out of the single market. Against it's will.

It's a risk but right now there is a hole in the single market and the coastal countries in Europe won't tolerate that for very long.

The TCA won't be ratified if that looks like an option. That would make the UK's access to the European market for goods too similar to an existing member. And I think the EU would go even further and impose sanctions for not following the WA which has been ratified. US pressure would also be involved.

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

The TCA won't be ratified if that looks like an option. That would make the UK's access to the European market for goods too similar to an existing member. And I think the EU would go even further and impose sanctions for not following the WA which has been ratified. US pressure would also be involved.

Yes but we are very vulnerable - it only takes one country to raise the question and we are in serious trouble.

The only option is for the EU to act.

They meekly threaten legal action (that will take years).

They need to go further imo.

zell12

Indo leads today with bread and pizzas set to rise 9% due to Brexit 'rule of origin' tariffs, apparently nobody eats sliced pans on the continent
There is just one Irish flour mill, in Portarlington, Co Laois, which is run by Odlums and which produces ‘retail’ flour, or packets of flour, for consumers.
https://www.thejournal.ie/cost-of-bread-flour-5351803-Feb2021/

Jizique

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All this would appear to indicate catastrophic supply chain difficulties for the UK in to the EU.

Things are pretty bad across channel esp fish, shellfish and animal products, so perhaps the English are thinking they might as well go the full Monty as wont be much worse and can all be blamed on EU intransigence anyway.
FT reporting a big drop in trade anyway.
Brexit was always going to last forever, the idea it was “finished” in Dec was always a joke, and Ireland was always going to be the plaything of the Brexiteers, they want to destroy our economy, just like the loyalist terrorists in the DUP and UVF do.

rock22

zell12 wrote: »

Indo leads today with bread and pizzas set to rise 9% due to Brexit 'rule of origin' tariffs, apparently nobody eats sliced pans on the continent
There is just one Irish flour mill, in Portarlington, Co Laois, which is run by Odlums and which produces ‘retail’ flour, or packets of flour, for consumers.
https://www.thejournal.ie/cost-of-bread-flour-5351803-Feb2021/

Then it would make it more economic to import the wheat directly from US or Canada and bypass UK.
A lot of commodities have traditionally been imported via UK because that made economic sense. Now economics might suggest importing directly to Ireland.

Surely these are the changes to supply chains that our government would have foreseen and planned for?

Leroy42

This appears to be the level of thinking in the Tory Party atm.

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1368081226540662784?s=19

As usual, lots of notions about reopening talks, reexamine the NIP, but as usual no actual idea of how to solve the problem. Apart from get the EU to give in.

yagan

Strazdas wrote: »

The CTA is not just about borders and passports but about social welfare, healthcare, housing benefits and the right to vote in the other country. If you scrapped the CTA, you would get rid of all the above.

Actually joining Schengen doesn't nullify the CTA as the residency rights betwixt the UK and Ireland are independent pieces of domestic law.

As is we start sharing information via the Schengen Information System this month.

_Puma_

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If Britain goes to a North Korea style Brexit then whatever would have to happen in Ireland as regards borders would be a picnic compared to the south coast of England. The British government would come under severe pressure internally and externally to solve the crisis and the first order of business, from our perspective in the EU, would be sorting out trade arrangements in Ireland.

This is the key bluff by the tory brexit Demagogues. Exploiting this is our only weapon against this type of "diplomacy" someone like Frost is going to bring to the table.

They are relying on us doing nothing. Time to get real by the Irish government in reacting to what brexit means for us and the future of our state.

Ireland should be focusing on explortitary talks with other European leaders about what can be implemented at our ports to ensure the integrity of the SM and implemented rapid. We should be looking at what kind checks can be carried out on a rolling "soft" boarder basis to avoid us breaching the GF agreement ourselves.

There is no other valid way out of this. The destruction of the good Friday agreement (by making it superflous) and the folding in of the ROI into a new British customs territory is their goal. Then they will begin real diplomacy with the European Union.

We will not be allowed to become casualties of brexit, the goodwill is there from our colleagues in Europe. To allow it to happen will be a failure on our part.

The Tory state should be made feel the ramifications both in the courts and in their international trade and diplomacy. Our soft diplomacy power should now be put to good use against them especially with the US.

MM and our government have performed very poorly so far since January with reacting to this new tory "diplomacy". The world cup nonsense, the non reaction to the statements by loyalist terrorists, even our statement on the "threat" of the article 16 invocation should have been handled better internally. It all played into this new Tory diplomacy.

Tony Connelly got it spot on this morning. "A worrying collapse in trust" but for those paying attention its just the outcome of this new diplomacy by the people in power in brexit Britain.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

‘You don’t think’ wrong. Our government won’t sacrifice our future over threats of violence from a group of cowardly unionist thugs

Our future is an independent nation in a union of equals, not the subservient lapdog of an expired empire

Anything the British do to try to spark violence in the north will just make a United Ireland more likely to happen sooner and on better terms for the Irish

‘Great Britain’ has been an anachronism for quite a while soon it will be a subject in history class

If it came to it I would choose a hard border over being forced into closer alignment with UK. They do not respect us or have our best interests at heart and we would end up back to being dependent on them.

Capt'n Midnight

yagan wrote: »

Actually joining Schengen doesn't nullify the CTA as the residency rights betwixt the UK and Ireland are independent pieces of domestic law.

As is we start sharing information via the Schengen Information System this month.

Schengen would mean a hard border like Turkey - EU, unless NI did wot Gibraltar did.

And the DUP would have conniptions.

20silkcut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If it came to it I would choose a hard border over being forced into closer alignment with UK. They do not respect us or have our best interests at heart and we would end up back to being dependent on them.

100% we would be behind Scotland , Wales and Northern Ireland in the pecking order we’d be bottom of the food chain. There is absolutely no future for this country in such a strategy. We’d be back to the 19th century. We’d be west Britain on the periphery miles from anywhere.
Tory/ unionist attitude to the Republic of Ireland ranges from indifference to disrespect all the way down to hatred on the extremes that are being consulted in the current events.
We have nothing to gain.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's Ireland defacto out of the single market. Against it's will.

It's a risk but right now there is a hole in the single market and the coastal countries in Europe won't tolerate that for very long.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes but we are very vulnerable - it only takes one country to raise the question and we are in serious trouble.

The only option is for the EU to act.

They meekly threaten legal action (that will take years).

They need to go further imo.

Mod: Dial back the soapboxing please. You don't need to make the same point over and over again.

looksee

rock22 wrote: »

Then it would make it more economic to import the wheat directly from US or Canada and bypass UK.
A lot of commodities have traditionally been imported via UK because that made economic sense. Now economics might suggest importing directly to Ireland.

Surely these are the changes to supply chains that our government would have foreseen and planned for?

I don't want to go down an off-topic rabbit hole, but it isn't quite as simple as that. The kind of bread we prefer to eat depends on the type of flour used and North American wheat is quite different to Irish/European wheat - not better or worse but different when it comes to making the bread that Irish consumers prefer. There is an article here https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/food-and-drink/our-daily-bread-ireland-s-grain-growers-and-millers-1.3612824

The point I am making is that there are not always easy and obvious solutions to problems that arise.

CelticRambler

looksee wrote: »

I don't want to go down an off-topic rabbit hole, but it isn't quite as simple as that.

<snip>

The point I am making is that there are not always easy and obvious solutions to problems that arise.

Not necessarily easy or obvious, but the article refers to another chapter of Anglo-Irish tension - the Famine - during which we used wheat donated by an Arab prince to effect a long-term adjustment to our bread-making tradition.

It will be interesting to look back, in fifteen or twenty years' time, and see to what extent Brexit permanently shifted Irish consumer habits towards either the Continent, or indeed towards one or more of the emerging markets beloved of the Brexiters.

Akrasia

View wrote: »

So far, in the Brexit process, we are doing a pretty good impression of being a “subservient lapdog of an expired empire“ as we have prioritised cuddling up to Brexit Britain over standing up for our EU neighbours, while insisting that they stand up for us. Case in point our refusal to join Schengen and our insistence on having borders with our fellow EU countries, so that we can continue to be part of the U.K. CTA (and it is a U.K. CTA as they call the shots on it).

All of the decisions made relating to Schengen were made way before Brexit was even a realistic possibility
We were trying to maintain a delicate peace on our island and if we entered Schengen without the UK, it would have caused a border to appear again with NI which would have breached the Good Friday Agreement.

The past 5 years has shown that the UK are perfectly happy to screw us over the first chance they get so while we will do our best to preserve the GFA, if the British make that impossible we’re not going to sacrifice our EU membership to uphold a BiLateral international treaty that one side is constantly violating and using as a stick to beat us with

Ireland are not to be bullied anymore, we have powerful allies and the British are making themselves more and more isolated with every utterance from their political leaders

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but you are failing to take into account that sovereignty seems to be valued at the same, or even maybe higher, than the costs. And it is easy to argue why when the benefits of sovereignty are so easy stated as Global Britain and future trade deals. They have been living of it for the last 5 years, why stop now?

So while we can all agree that the WA, a border between NI and GB is the least of the two evils, that is looking at this logically, when I am not sure that that is how they are thinking at all. This seems to be less about reality and more about some fancy notion of itself.

If, and at the moment it is a big if, but if the UK do continue to put sovereignty above economics then there really is only one outcome, a Hard border on the island.

FWIW, I don't think they will get to that point. History of the last 5 years tells us that they will kick and scream and act the hard man but ultimately they are aware of the real issues that they will face, economically and then politically, of they go down that route. That is exactly why they went with the WA in the 1st place, although it apparently was something no PM could ever agree to.

They went with a WA because they needed it to secure the election. There are Tories in the driving seat who genuinely do want a no deal Brexit and are maneuvering to bring it about. You can see this quite clearly, why else would they announce another breach of the WA the day before the EU parliament were meeting to advance the formal ratification of the TCA