Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

A Dub in Glasgo

redcup342 wrote: »

CN22 is for Commerical Items (i.e. if you sold the card)

You don't need CN22 for Gift Cards of a personal nature.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Not true. While CN22 is not needed for a simple card or letter, it is required for all goods or gifts for which the weight is under 2kg and the value less than £270 / 380€. A greetings card does not need CN22, a gift card does.

CN23 is recommended for similar sized packages of commercial value.

Seems like the post office staff and members of the public have some learning to do about customs declarations

fly_agaric

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Collapse of uk-eu trade deal is exactly what hardcore Tori Brexiteers want. They then get to blame the EU, what we have is a resumption of the drift to an ever more extreme Brexit as Tories realised that if they can get away with killing 150odd thousand of their subjects they can get away with most hardcore version of brexit too.

I don't think so. I think they could be willing to pay that price in the end though. I think the strategy is the same one it always was - use NI problem as leverage over the EU, maybe wedge Ireland out of the EU or at least damage our relationship with the EU if it pays off.

As mentioned Covid really does mask alot, it so awful it already allowed them to brush impacts of Brexit under the carpet to an extent. It's a bit like a war situation as well with people rallying around the govt. and provides opportunities to push things through that would not fly in normal times.

No matter what happens they will blame the EU and Ireland. That is a constant.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

My proposal above does not give them that satisfaction, Eu/uk trade remains but a huge non tariff wall is build on our side by ensuring imports from uk to Eu get strangled.

I don't think it helps really. The effect of the trade agreement collapsing is similar (in fact they've already had a taste of such new barriers to trade post Jan 1st?). If the UK really do push things far enough for that to happen, probably nothing we or the EU can do will make them implement the NI protocol.

Strazdas

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I think economic realities are being masked by COVID. There’s a very harsh dose of reality, and an entirely self inflected one, coming at some stage this year. You simply cannot disrupt supply chains to the level that has happened and expect things not to go very badly wrong.

That’s ultimately what will drive a pragmatic solution. There’s no real way of spinning away from that. It’s just practical reality.

It's also being (deliberately) covered up by their media. Very few stories at all about Brexit or the collapse in exports. There's been virtually nothing in the press for weeks.

Patser

The EU still has a very big card to play in this : the future relationship for the Finance Services industry. This is still up in the air, and the UK is already crying foul that the EU is bullying them there.

I wouldn't be surprised if the UKs posturing of the NI protocol is to try get a bargaining chip in these negotiations.

IMO:
The EU should stop all negotiations about Finance, cite that the agreement has not been ratified by the Council yet (due to the unilateral Protocol breaches) and simply say that without that ratification nothing can be done to sort the UKs access to European markets. Have London panicking, make their trading status uncertain. Make it clear that until you stop acting silly buggers about the agreement, there is no certain agreement. Talk as adults, we'll talk to you then

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

It's also being (deliberately) covered up by their media. Very few stories at all about Brexit or the collapse in exports. There's been virtually nothing in the press for weeks.

I don't think it's being covered up at all. I think that covid is just too big a story for people to pay much attention to Brexit. People here are well aware of the problems caused by the Conservatives' insistence on leaving both the single market and customs union without a plan.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think it's being covered up at all. I think that covid is just too big a story for people to pay much attention to Brexit. People here are well aware of the problems caused by the Conservatives' insistence on leaving both the single market and customs union without a plan.

But there is a significant cohort who are aware and simply don't care. Taking back control trumps any of that Remoaner stuff.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But there is a significant cohort who are aware and simply don't care. Taking back control trumps any of that Remoaner stuff.

I think that this is now wide off the mark. It's true that this was indeed once the case. However, now Brexit is just.... done. It is what it is and people want to move on. The debate isn't going to change to rejoining until the British believe that some form of Brexit has been fully implemented and tried for many years.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think that this is now wide off the mark. It's true that this was indeed once the case. However, now Brexit is just.... done. It is what it is and people want to move on. The debate isn't going to change to rejoining until the British believe that some form of Brexit has been fully implemented and tried for many years.

In what way is it wide of the mark? This is the cohort who elected the Tories and will elect them again. Johnson champions Brexit - and gets elected. Uses populist and nationalistic tactics to create division between the UK and the EU again and - gets re-elected. Other people may move on but this cohort won't. Their nationalism has been stirred up and is being fomented and exploited. Very clever tactics by the Tories and Cummings.

redcup342

CelticRambler wrote: »

Not true. While CN22 is not needed for a simple card or letter, it is required for all goods or gifts for which the weight is under 2kg and the value less than £270 / 380€. A greetings card does not need CN22, a gift card does.

CN23 is recommended for similar sized packages of commercial value.

A gift card or voucher has no value in itself.

If you write the Coupon Code on the Greeting card it doesn't become a gift card or increase its value

Hence no CN22 required or at least thats the Case here in Germany anyway.

I'm assuming why that's Royal Mail would have told the person above they needed a CN22

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think it's being covered up at all. I think that covid is just too big a story for people to pay much attention to Brexit. People here are well aware of the problems caused by the Conservatives' insistence on leaving both the single market and customs union without a plan.

The only story that is being covered is the marvellous success the vaccine strategy has turned out to be and how much Global Britain is beating the world with its roll out of vaccines.

No mention of the thousands of cases and deaths that still mount up, and how Global Britain is leading the world in both cases per million and deaths per million. [62,000 cases/m and 1,800 deaths/m - some countries worse on one or other total but in the same ball park]. These figures are many times ours.

Bigus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think it's being covered up at all. I think that covid is just too big a story for people to pay much attention to Brexit. People here
are well aware of the problems caused by the Conservatives' insistence on leaving both the single market and customs union without a plan.

There’s more concern for Megan, Harry and Oprah than Covid or the economy, it’s a lovely distraction for all concerned and should provide ample cover for at least 10 days.

Then the headlines will be all on “un lock down”, and then how bad the EU is doing on vaccines and Brits will have to look beyond the EU for holidays, just as well we got Brexit done or we’d still be in lockdown !

CrabRevolution

Sam Russell wrote: »

The only story that is being covered is the marvellous success the vaccine strategy has turned out to be and how much Global Britain is beating the world with its roll out of vaccines.

No mention of the thousands of cases and deaths that still mount up, and how Global Britain is leading the world in both cases per million and deaths per million. [62,000 cases/m and 1,800 deaths/m - some countries worse on one or other total but in the same ball park]. These figures are many times ours.

It's amazing how the narrative can be spun. In all likelihood we will catch up with the UK on vaccines in a small few months, yet even after our catastrophic last 2 months our death rate will never get anywhere as high as theirs. But we're being told now that the UK are a shining example internationally for handling the pandemic.....?

fly_agaric

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Not really if trade deal collapses then exporters into uk get screwed, Tories will not police imports into uk anytime soon giving a huge advantage to Eu businesses to dismantle uk industry

Yes that's true.

However I'm sure the UK will retaliate at some point anyway if they feel their exports are being hobbled by your sort of special additional checks/procedures etc (as opposed to the natural outworkings of leaving the EU that they have suffered so far).

Making exporters to the UK suffer still requires UK government to get their border controls/Customs systems up and running.

They still don't seem to be doing very well with that however given (afaik) they are still not applying proper customs procedures to their imports from EU.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In what way is it wide of the mark? This is the cohort who elected the Tories and will elect them again. Johnson champions Brexit - and gets elected. Uses populist and nationalistic tactics to create division between the UK and the EU again and - gets re-elected. Other people may move on but this cohort won't. Their nationalism has been stirred up and is being fomented and exploited. Very clever tactics by the Tories and Cummings.

That was well over a year ago.

That cohort isn't going away but we won't be hearing about taking back control in the next election. Johnson is going to have the sort of problems then that can't be solved with a three word maxim.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That was well over a year ago.

That cohort isn't going away but we won't be hearing about taking back control in the next election. Johnson is going to have the sort of problems then that can't be solved with a three word maxim.

He will have a three word maxim if Cummins is around. 'Labour doesn't Work' might be useful.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

He will have a three word maxim if Cummins is around. 'Labour doesn't Work' might be useful.

Cummings isn't coming back. They've managed to get what they want done without him and he's too toxic. There is no advantage in restoring him.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In what way is it wide of the mark? This is the cohort who elected the Tories and will elect them again. Johnson champions Brexit - and gets elected. Uses populist and nationalistic tactics to create division between the UK and the EU again and - gets re-elected. Other people may move on but this cohort won't. Their nationalism has been stirred up and is being fomented and exploited. Very clever tactics by the Tories and Cummings.

Can a government remain popular in a deeply divided country and with one half of that country full of hate? That's the €64,000 dollar question.

Jizique

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes that's true.

However I'm sure the UK will retaliate at some point anyway if they feel their exports are being hobbled by your sort of special additional checks/procedures etc (as opposed to the natural outworkings of leaving the EU that they have suffered so far).

Making exporters to the UK suffer still requires UK government to get their border controls/Customs systems up and running.

They still don't seem to be doing very well with that however given (afaik) they are still not applying proper customs procedures to their imports from EU.

They are “considering postponing” the introduction of border checks, according to B’berg, which Sam Lowe finds “very predictable”

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Can a government remain popular in a deeply divided country and with one half of that country full of hate? That's the €64,000 dollar question.

I think it's a bit of an overstatement to say that one half of the country is full of hate.

Regarding the next election, Labour are in an impossible position as the government is currently implementing social democratic policies put of necessary so Starmer has very little to work with.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it's a bit of an overstatement to say that one half of the country is full of hate.

Regarding the next election, Labour are in an impossible position as the government is currently implementing social democratic policies put of necessary so Starmer has very little to work with.

I'm referring here mainly to the 'culture wars' and anti-immigration views etc (which the Tories deliberately seem to be stoking, Trump style).

CrabRevolution

CrabRevolution wrote: »

It's amazing how the narrative can be spun. In all likelihood we will catch up with the UK on vaccines in a small few months

Show me some projections please. We're doing 80k a week, they're doing 3-4 million. They're ahead and going at a similar rate to keep the gap the same.

fash

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think that this is now wide off the mark. It's true that this was indeed once the case. However, now Brexit is just.... done. It is what it is and people want to move on. The debate isn't going to change to rejoining until the British believe that some form of Brexit has been fully implemented and tried for many years.

I read (and found credible) the argument that now they are outside the EU, as a natural function of being outside the EU they will feel the EU as a negative force - it isn't pleasant being an EU neighbour. Apparently pro EU sentiment in Switzerland is now far lower than when they originally held a referendum etc. - which if it followed through would mean the UK would never rejoin - but might end up in a pragmatic Swiss+/- style arrangement (but without the hundreds of treaties).

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm referring here mainly to the 'culture wars' and anti-immigration views etc (which the Tories deliberately seem to be stoking, Trump style).

It's still an overstatement. The Conservative party hasn't won an outright majority of the vote in several decades.

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

Show me some projections please. We're doing 80k a week, they're doing 3-4 million. They're ahead and going at a similar rate to keep the gap the same.

Irish govt say that by end of June, 82% of over 18s will have one dose and 55% will have two doses.

UK govt say by end of July, all over 18s will have one dose. No projection on second dose.

Ireland is hobbled by vaccine availability, but our allocation doubles from first week of April.

Feb 23rd: https://www.newstalk.com/news/government-reveals-updated-timeline-for-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-1155044
Mar 4th: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

CelticRambler

Patser wrote: »

the future relationship for the Finance Services industry. This is still up in the air, and the UK is already crying foul that the EU is bullying them there.

I wouldn't be surprised if the UKs posturing of the NI protocol is to try get a bargaining chip in these negotiations.

If that's their plan, it's up there with their greatest delusions. Financial services require regulation; regulation in one territory requires the (mutual) recognition of regulation in the other; mutual recognition requires trust; trust is seriously undermined by unilateral breaches of agreements, especially when the sole real justification for the supposedly necessary breach is the breachers' failure to put in place the regulatory and supervisory measures it agreed to.

Until the UK gets its act together, every time they ask for equivalence in any domain, the EU will reply: "How can we trust you? Look at what you did with respect to NI."

Padre_Pio

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Irish govt say that by end of June, 82% of over 18s will have one dose and 55% will have two doses.

UK govt say by end of July, all over 18s will have one dose. No projection on second dose.

Ireland is hobbled by vaccine availability, but our allocation doubles from first week of April.

Feb 23rd: https://www.newstalk.com/news/government-reveals-updated-timeline-for-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-1155044
Mar 4th: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

In the 2 weeks since that Newstalk article we've missed our targets by over 15% and this week's target has been cut to match the last 2 weeks. And the chart in that article shows around 3 weeks now just nudging over 100k per week here which as it turns out didn't happen.
The projections are for a) Companes who've consistently missed targets and b) Johnson and Johnson who haven't been approved yet.

As for the no projection for the 2nd jab in the UK if they're doing a 12 week gap then by the end of July that'll be all adults done once and anyone with the first jab by the end of April will have both jabs done by the end of July which would be over 60%. If anything they'll be slowing down if they only hit those targets while we're depending on sources which have already let us down.
We'll catch up when they're winding down and trying to clear up the tardy patients.

Leroy42

All true, but despite the lack that inspiring rollout of vaccines (hardly a surprise) Ireland still continues to be on the higher end of the countries. We are being compared to the UK and US, both of which are doing exceptional jobs in regards to the vaccines.

But in the end the gap between the time frames will not be all that much. It will certainly feel very long, as looking over at the Uk opening up sooner than we can will be a hard thing to stomach, but we will get there. And the overall effect will have been much less in terms of % of deaths etc.

That is what will be the legacy of this. In the short term vacines are the new battle ground, but by this time next year it won't make any difference and the uK will be regarded has having done an awful job of dealing with the pandemic.

Also bear in mind that EU roll-out is the only show in town for Ireland. We saw with PPE, that smaller countries would simply be out fought if left to their own devices. So as annoying as the slower roll-out is, the only other alternative is none at all.

Kermit.de.frog

Johnson just told the BBC the NIP is a "great deal"

https://twitter.com/FinancialJuice/status/1368964202052911105

Ordinarily that would send some blood pressures stratospheric but he's not to be trusted so.

NeuralNetwork

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson just told the BBC the NIP is a "great deal"

https://twitter.com/FinancialJuice/status/1368964202052911105

Ordinarily that would send some blood pressures stratospheric but he's not to be trusted so.

Did Biden ring him?

It's not the first time he's flown kites only to find they've been struck by lightening.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote:

In the 2 weeks since that Newstalk article we've missed our targets by over 15% and this week's target has been cut to match the last 2 weeks. And the chart in that article shows around 3 weeks now just nudging over 100k per week here which as it turns out didn't happen. The projections are for a) Companes who've consistently missed targets and b) Johnson and Johnson who haven't been approved yet.

OT - but JJ is approved in the US, last week in Canada and now it's the EU's turn (the usual order of approvals). It will be approved this week or the next latest. We'll be getting substantial deliveries within 3-4 weeks.

Pfizer and Moderna are using Merck, Bayer, Sanofi and GSK to produce extra doses, we'll be getting higher quantities. And Novavax is next after JJ in 2-3 months.

We'll likely have oversupply of vaccines by July is my prediction and this is in line with the Irish Gov predictions.