Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

Dover based freight forwarders, John Shirley Ltd described their view of a silver lining arising from Brexit (which I'm inclined to agree with)...

https://twitter.com/JohnShirleyLtd/status/1369256005939380227

Meanwhile, Andy Woodcock, Political Editor of Britain's The Independent newspaper puts a difficult question to the PM who kind of bluffs and waffles through a form of response.
Unfortunately, not enough journos follow up on the waffle so this practice by the Pm looks as if it will continue for some time.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1368977072694194185

Lemming

yagan wrote: »

They're already encountering problems getting people to turning up for the second jab as people are seeing the death numbers falling and hearing Boris talking about reopening for good as signs that the danger has passed for them.

Many vulnerable people in England are more concerned about how soon they can get back to Benidorm rather than getting fully innoculised.

Deleted User wrote: »

The vulnerable are unlikely to refuse the second jab if they're in fear of getting the virus.
If they're not fully vaccinated, then they may be refused entry, so I don't expect many of that particular group refusing.

I've seen social media posts from people I know who have received their first jab and they're all about the bursting into tears and how it's "back to normal" now, etc. missing the painfully f*cking obvious that it takes over a week (closer to two afaik) for the first jab to have any sort of effect, they're still only part-vaccinated, and everyone else around them who hasn't received even that initial vaccination still has to be accounted for.

Not helped by reports in the news of NHS nurses who got vaccinated then contracting Covid a few days later and then proclaiming how they "didn't know" they could still catch the virus after being vaccinated ...

The lack of awareness amongst the public around the whole subject is not surprising given how badly the Tories have mismanaged the whole sorry tragedy. That NHS staff are ignorant of the matter just blows my mind though, and makes you question what hope the general public have. It is unsurprising that so many people are not turning up for vaccinations or missing second appointments, etc. because they think that first dose means life resumes apace at 0-60 in 2.7 seconds.

Leonard Hofstadter

This nonsense about the UK doing much better than us really has got to stop.

They're ignoring how clincial trials work and how the vaccines were designed.

For all the talk about their 'progress', we have a much higher percentage of people fully vaccinated than they do.

Of course I hope for the sake of humanity that their approach pays off, and if the data eventually show that 12 weeks is either the optimum strategy or has no adverse effects, then of course we've got to consider it, but we must always follow the science and how the trials were designed, not make it up as things go along and say 'ah sure it will be grand'. This is a deadly virus that has cost us all so much already, and I want it to be over for good.

Their wilful ignorance of the science could prolong the misery because there could be more mutations (which are more resistant to vaccines) or they just might not be as well protected as we are because we've done the right thing. If it doesn't work then it's just a licence for the anti vaccine idiots to spew even more of the BS they're already spewing.

Like I say, I hope it pays off, but you do the trials first on volunteers, then say it's safe for the public at large, not the other way around.

I note that we've had a much sharper rate of decline and we have fewer daily cases per head of the population than we do, despite all the extra people who have gotten a first dose. We've also managed to send kids back to school a week before them, too, and so far NPHET aren't reporting any concerns, so that is good news.

Strazdas

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

This nonsense about the UK doing much better than us really has got to stop.

They're ignoring how clincial trials work and how the vaccines were designed.

For all the talk about their 'progress', we have a much higher percentage of people fully vaccinated than they do.

Of course I hope for the sake of humanity that their approach pays off, and if the data eventually show that 12 weeks is either the optimum strategy or has no adverse effects, then of course we've got to consider it, but we must always follow the science and how the trials were designed, not make it up as things go along and say 'ah sure it will be grand'. This is a deadly virus that has cost us all so much already, and I want it to be over for good.

Their wilful ignorance of the science could prolong the misery because there could be more mutations (which are more resistant to vaccines) or they just might not be as well protected as we are because we've done the right thing. If it doesn't work then it's just a licence for the anti vaccine idiots to spew even more of the BS they're already spewing.

Like I say, I hope it pays off, but you do the trials first on volunteers, then say it's safe for the public at large, not the other way around.

I note that we've had a much sharper rate of decline and we have fewer daily cases per head of the population than we do, despite all the extra people who have gotten a first dose. We've also managed to send kids back to school a week before them, too, and so far NPHET aren't reporting any concerns, so that is good news.

All that has actually happened with vaccines is that the UK started its vaccination programme before the EU (before everyone in fact) and is around 5-6 weeks ahead. In the general outlook of the pandemic, it's not actually that big a story. The impact of the UK being a few weeks ahead will prove negligible as the year progresses.

timetogo1

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

This nonsense about the UK doing much better than us really has got to stop.

It'll never stop though will it. We'll be hearing how Brexit enabled the UKs tremendous vaccine victory forever. I know that rubbish was debunked on day one but you still hear MPs saying it now as a Brexit benefit. They have to have something to point to and claim victory.

I know the MPs know better but it doesn't seem to matter anymore in the UK. They can say anything and a certain demographic will just believe it.

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Meanwhile, Andy Woodcock, Political Editor of Britain's The Independent newspaper puts a difficult question to the PM who kind of bluffs and waffles through a form of response.
Unfortunately, not enough journos follow up on the waffle so this practice by the Pm looks as if it will continue for some time.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1368977072694194185

Jebus, not only is that a non-answer, of which many politicians are very good at, but it is painfully clear that Johnson hasn't a rashers and is just trying to bluff his way out.

The journalist nailed him, and he knew it.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

Jebus, not only is that a non-answer, of which many politicians are very good at, but it is painfully clear that Johnson hasn't a rashers and is just trying to bluff his way out.

The journalist nailed him, and he knew it.

The fact that he nailed him with such an obvious question with facts that we have been discussing here for weeks and have been comprehensively covered across all media since the 1st of January is what’s really startling about it.

It’s like asking the emperor why is he walking around naked.

View

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Problem is the EU has let itself down extremely badly in recent months. As countries in the EU now move to do their own thing on vaccines for obvious reasons we are now placed in yet another dilemma

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1369253553899003906

Accepting vaccines from Britain would hopelessly undermine any pushback to Britain on their own behaviour.

On the other hand how would it look if we refuse internally?

It does not matter how pro or anti EU you are, it's been a dreadful few months for the bloc and people should be angry and asking real questions.

I mean it's embarrassing at this point.

I think we should source vaccines ourselves. We are sovereign country, we have that right. Obviously keep the stock coming from the EU.

If every country in the EU had foreseen this they would have told the EU commission, upon their request to act on their behalf, a simple "no".

Under no circumstances should we accept vaccines from Britain.

We'd look utterly ridiculous and we'd be compromising our own broader interests.

The only way that the EU “let itself down badly” was in trusting AZ to deliver vaccines on the schedule that AZ promised and in accordance with the commitment that AZ made that there was no other contract in existence that would prevent them from doing so.

Short of engaging in espionage to discover that AZ had lied, it is hard to see what the EU could reasonably have done to discover that and switch its sourcing to alternative suppliers.

Kermit.de.frog

Anyone listen to this?

Lord Mogg of Somerset seems to be of the impression that there is an active negotiation of the protocol going on. In his podcast he talks about how Britain wants to get it's way. He claims it was meant to be light touch and not a border in the Irish Sea.

(from about 8 mins)

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1369258441554952196

The protocol and the WA have already been negotiated.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone listen to this?

Lord Mogg of Somerset seems to be of the impression that there is an active negotiation of the protocol going on. In his podcast he talks about how Britain wants to get it's way. He claims it was meant to be light touch and not a border in the Irish Sea.

(from about 8 mins)

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1369258441554952196

The protocol and the WA have already been negotiated.

He knows he sold them out, now trying to backtrack and rewrite history.

View

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone listen to this?

Lord Mogg of Somerset seems to be of the impression that there is an active negotiation of the protocol going on. In his podcast he talks about how Britain wants to get it's way. He claims it was meant to be light touch and not a border in the Irish Sea.

(from about 8 mins)

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1369258441554952196

The protocol and the WA have already been negotiated.

That just shows that either he had no idea what he was voting for at the time or he did know and is now actively trying to misrepresent matters.

Either way, who cares? They aren’t in the EU and we wouldn’t pay any attention to what an idiot backbencher in Norway or Iceland was going on about, and they are both a lot closer and friendlier to all EU countries than Brexit Britain is.

Winters

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

This nonsense about the UK doing much better than us really has got to stop.

They're ignoring how clincial trials work and how the vaccines were designed.

For all the talk about their 'progress', we have a much higher percentage of people fully vaccinated than they do..

I think the UK just took a risk. They had nothing to lose and took a risk.

But the thing with risk is that you win some and you lose some. The last risk they took in this area was herd immunity and after that different approaches to controlling the spread.

Faced with an enormous death toll and one of the worst deaths per population in the world I think they saw early vaccine approval and a different rollout of the AZ vaccine as their only way out.

Brexit and its aftermath is no different. They will take risk after risk. Some will work out and some wont.

Ramasun

murphaph wrote: »

If the "banking bailout loan" we got from the UK is anything to go by they would charge us more than they paid for the vaccines themselves. Let us stick with our own EU programme. Supply in the EU is due to be ramped up significantly. It's really not as bad as people are making out. We'll be talking crossing the vaccination finish line a matter of weeks after the UK, nothing worse than that.

Using vaccines as an overt means of soft power is ugly. All the bad kids are doing it like Russia, China and Israel. I don't honestly see the UK going that way.

Igotadose

Winters wrote: »

I think the UK just took a risk. They had nothing to lose and took a risk.

Brexit and its aftermath is no different. They will take risk after risk. Some will work out and some wont.

Brexit wasn't sold as a risk, now, was it?

And, 'nothing to lose' doesn't seem like a good philosophy by which to run a country.

Both lines fairly preposterous, frankly.

An Ciarraioch

Extraordinary collapse in UK exports to Germany and Italy YOY in January - 56% for the former and 70% for the latter:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/09/uk-germany-trade-slumps-brexit-covid

Charles Babbage

McGiver wrote: »

OT - but JJ is approved in the US, last week in Canada and now it's the EU's turn (the usual order of approvals). It will be approved this week or the next latest. We'll be getting substantial deliveries within 3-4 weeks.

Pfizer and Moderna are using Merck, Bayer, Sanofi and GSK to produce extra doses, we'll be getting higher quantities. And Novavax is next after JJ in 2-3 months.

We'll likely have oversupply of vaccines by July is my prediction and this is in line with the Irish Gov predictions.

And by July we'll have CureVac, who in turn have made arrangements with various suppliers like GSK and Novartis and are only supplying the EU initially. The problem by June and July will be putting the shots in people's arms.

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

If there were any surplus, it would be diverted into doing the second jab for the vulnerable people first.

The UK hasn't vaccinated everyone, therefore there is no surplus.

When there is a surplus in June, we'll have plenty of vaccines.

McGiver

Charles Babbage wrote:

And by July we'll have CureVac, who in turn have made arrangements with various suppliers like GSK and Novartis and are only supplying the EU initially. The problem by June and July will be putting the shots in people's arms.

Yep. And Curevac is both mRNA and German so this is going to be a largely "EU first" and also very efficacious vaccine.

McGiver

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Problem is the EU has let itself down extremely badly in recent months. As countries in the EU now move to do their own thing on vaccines for obvious reasons we are now placed in yet another dilemma

Not really. The only country doing their own thing is Hungary. Which should be thrown out of the EU until they restore a normal liberal democracy and fulfil the Copenhagen criteria.

Thank God/Nature/Universe/(insert your deity) the Orban's junta left the EPP finally.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Accepting vaccines from Britain would hopelessly undermine any pushback to Britain on their own behaviour.

That I agree with.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

On the other hand how would it look if we refuse internally?

Do you mean in Ireland?

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

It does not matter how pro or anti EU you are, it's been a dreadful few months for the bloc and people should be angry and asking real questions.

Why dreadful? Why angry?

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I think we should source vaccines ourselves. We are sovereign country, we have that right. Obviously keep the stock coming from the EU.

Alright. From where? From the Chinese or the Russians? Those are vaccines not approved by the EMA.
And you're aware that the European vaccine digital ID, which is coming and will be required for travel within the EU, will not consider vaccines not approved by the EMA as valid.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

If every country in the EU had foreseen this they would have told the EU commission, upon their request to act on their behalf, a simple "no".

Incorrect. It was the EU22 small-medium member states who asked the Commission to handle vaccine procurement. Else the EU5 large members would have hoarded all the vaccines and the EU22 would have been screwed.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Under no circumstances should we accept vaccines from Britain.

That I agree with.

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

We'd look utterly ridiculous and we'd be compromising our own broader interests.

Agreed.

McGiver

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

As countries in the EU now move to do their own thing on vaccines for obvious reasons we are now placed in yet another dilemma

Oh yeah and on Hungary and Sinovac (unapproved Chinese vaccine Orban's junta are pushing).

According to a recent survey in Hungary only 27% of the population would take the vaccine. The % rises to 45% amongst the Orban's Fidesz party voters. Not exactly stellar either.

Hungary has been already told that vaccines not approved by the EMA won't be valid for the EU digital vaccine ID.

Now think about the whole thing again...

wexfordman2

McGiver wrote: »

Not really. The only country doing their own thing is Hungary. Which should be thrown out of the EU until they restore a normal liberal democracy and fulfil the Copenhagen criteria.

Thank God/Nature/Universe/(insert your deity) the Orban's junta left the EPP finally.


That I agree with.


Do you mean in Ireland?


Why dreadful? Why angry?


Alright. From where? From the Chinese or the Russians? Those are vaccines not approved by the EMA.
And you're aware that the European vaccine digital ID, which is coming and will be required for travel within the EU, will not consider vaccines not approved by the EMA as valid.


Incorrect. It was the EU22 small-medium member states who asked the Commission to handle vaccine procurement. Else the EU5 large members would have hoarded all the vaccines and the EU22 would have been screwed.


That I agree with.


Agreed.

And if the UK ever did offer Ireland surplus vaccine, Ireland should immediately decline and ask the UK to get them to.dontate them to the EU pot vaccines.

Keeps us clean and doesn't make it look petty, and end up.owing the UK.

An Claidheamh

SNIP.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

There is another thread for discussion of the political dimensions of covid:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058163781

There is also a thread on general British politics. There are also some threads on EU unity but if people want to discuss a discrete aspect of that, I suppose another thread can be opened.

This thread is about Brexit. I accept that they have left the EU so it is somewhat of a rump discussion about the impact of same etc. But it isn't a free for all.

It's very simple really, before you post, as yourself "is my comment mostly about Brexit, or is it mostly about covid?"

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0309/1203027-coveney-congree-brexit/


Good move. This is where the UK can be hurt. It's the only reason they signed up to the protocol in the first place in my opinion.

If Congress and the State Department (they already know) can be further encouraged to push the tories in a certain direction it can only help.

McGiver

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Good move. This is where the UK can be hurt. It's the only reason they signed up to the protocol in the first place in my opinion.

As I said, Coveney should be talking to Biden. And he's up to speed, not like Martin. First class foreign minister. FG gov not great on many things but foreign relations they can do well.

Šefčovič is joining Coveney in the US talks. That's also good.

Also, legal action is coming, as expected. All of EU27 support it.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-back-legal-action-against-uk-over-post-brexit-grace-period-extension/

eoinbn

McGiver wrote: »

As I said, Coveney should be talking to Biden. And he's up to speed, not like Martin. First class foreign minister. FG gov not great on many things but foreign relations they can do well.

Šefčovič is joining Coveney in the US talks. That's also good.

Also, legal action is coming, as expected. All of EU27 support it.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-back-legal-action-against-uk-over-post-brexit-grace-period-extension/

Send a former member of a communist party and a self proclaimed marxist to talk to the US Congress. That will go well.
It is absolute insanity that the faith of Europe depends on the clowns that we send to the EU. The whole project needs to be completely rethought or scrapped.

Kermit.de.frog

TBH Coveney strikes me as the most competent and able of our politicians hands down.

If Sinn Féin, for example, won the last election who would we have?

I'd take Coveney any day of the week. Intelligent, competent and doesn't suffer fools. Good media performer on British tv too which is why he is singled out I guess for special treatment by the Brits and unionists.

He is so superior to any of their ministers it's not even a joke.

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

Also, legal action is coming, as expected. All of EU27 support it.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-back-legal-action-against-uk-over-post-brexit-grace-period-extension/

From the end of that article (and in line with speculation on this thread ):

For some diplomats, however, the U.K.'s decision could have deeper implications for London: "There is some encouragement for the Commission to take into account recent developments around the Northern Ireland protocol when taking a decision on equivalence on financial services,” said a senior EU diplomat.

“It is very clear that the U.K. needs these equivalence decisions more than the EU. Some member states might actually rather be happy to have a pretext to help some more bankers from London to relocate to the EU," added the senior diplomat.

Dublin being one of the significant players in the financial services sector, it'd be quite ironic if the Unionists' desperate determination to eat sandwiches made with British eggs on British bread resulted in British banking jobs moving to the Republic. :rolleyes:

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

TBH Coveney strikes me as the most competent and able of our politicians hands down.

If Sinn Féin, for example, won the last election who would we have?

I'd take Coveney any day of the week. Intelligent, competent and doesn't suffer fools. Good media performer on British tv too which is why he is singled out I guess for special treatment by the Brits.

He is so superior to any of their ministers it's not even a joke.

Coveney is in exactly the right place in that government.

yagan

eoinbn wrote: »

Send a former member of a communist party and a self proclaimed marxist to talk to the US Congress. That will go well.
It is absolute insanity that the faith of Europe depends on the clowns that we send to the EU. The whole project needs to be completely rethought or scrapped.

In fairness the Trump circus trashed Washington on its way out.

The USA matters in that it is the only nation the UK truly respects and will ultimately heed. Indian road rules, bigger vehicles have right of way.