Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

Boris Johnson refusing to meet SF on his visit to the north today.

https://amp.independent.ie/news/boris-johnson-refuses-to-meet-sinn-feins-mary-lou-mcdonald-on-northern-ireland-visit-40188200.html?__twitter_impression=true

I'm no SF supporter but the UK govt seems determined to send out all the wrong optics.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson refusing to meet SF on his visit to the north today.

https://amp.independent.ie/news/boris-johnson-refuses-to-meet-sinn-feins-mary-lou-mcdonald-on-northern-ireland-visit-40188200.html?__twitter_impression=true

I'm no SF supporter but the UK govt seems determined to send out all the wrong optics.

It won't benefit him to meet them as he will only be challenged on Brexit. This way he is avoiding a confrontation which would end up in the media.

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

that's about as much use as favourable terms for the import of culinary snails to Ireland.

Ireland is one of Europe's biggest exporters of culinary snails, ahead of France and just behind the UK. Oh, wait ... nope. The UK has just voted to kill off access to the Single Market for its snail exports, so Irish snail producers are being encouraged (by Teagasc) to increase production over and above the massive increase in recent years. It was a Polish lady that set the ball rolling in Ireland. Funny how this European Union thing generally works as a positive force.

Deleted User wrote: »

Japan is but only one country outside the EU, there are hundreds of other countries out there that you could have mentioned, many of which are still growing rapidly.

This "growing rapidly" slogan is pure spin. The vast majority of the countries concerned are "growing rapidly" from a point of dire poverty, so even a whopping 1000% increase in their GDP will only bring them up to the level of places like Leitrim or the Shetland Islands or the back end of Romania.

Furthermore, a lot of the growth that's talked about in this regions is not in traditional European and American industries, but new technologies that are dominated by individual companies which have a turnover that dwarfs the GDP of the emerging nation they're exploiting serving.

For one single country going it alone to be able to take advantage of all the opportunities is pure delusion; but a bloc of countries sharing talent, research and commercial and diplomatic clout will be able to secure a slice of the pie, to the benefit of all member states.

Hurrache

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It won't benefit him to meet them as he will only be challenged on Brexit. This way he is avoiding a confrontation which would end up in the media.

I don't think his visit is open to the general media though, all done in house with a photo set up and released by his government, same goes for TV coverage. It's all very controlled, so if there was an embarrassing moment for him at any meeting, we won't be seeing it. So I saw mentioned yesterday anyway.

It's ridiculous, but not unexpected, that he refuses to meet the joint first minister though. Coward.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

This "growing rapidly" slogan is pure spin. The vast majority of the countries concerned are "growing rapidly" from a point of dire poverty, so even a whopping 1000% increase in their GDP will only bring them up to the level of places like Leitrim or the Shetland Islands or the back end of Romania.

Furthermore, a lot of the growth that's talked about in this regions is not in traditional European and American industries, but new technologies that are dominated by individual companies which have a turnover that dwarfs the GDP of the emerging nation they're exploiting serving.

For one single country going it alone to be able to take advantage of all the opportunities is pure delusion; but a bloc of countries sharing talent, research and commercial and diplomatic clout will be able to secure a slice of the pie, to the benefit of all member states.

100% : it's like saying that a new chain of five or six supermarkets is "growing rapidly" compared to Tesco, Dunnes and SuperValu and the one that any prospective stakeholder should be concentrating on.

The Brexity types making these claims seem to be economically illiterate. Anyone who thinks ditching the nearby 450m people EU Single Market for small and emerging economies 10k miles away is a good idea hasn't a clue.

jm08

Peregrinus wrote: »

And the blue cheese market in Japan has been stagnant since for ever. They don't eat the stuff; they consider it revolting. Sales are almost entirely to a few high-end specialty restaurants.) Even if the UK has secured world-beatingly favourable terms for the import of blue cheese to Japan, that's about as much use as favourable terms for the import of culinary snails to Ireland. No matter how favourable the terms of import, you're not going to sell very much.

I think the issue maybe that dairy isn't traditionally big in Japan and that a large proportion of the population are lactose intolerant.

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

I think the issue maybe that dairy isn't traditionally big in Japan and that a large proportion of the population are lactose intolerant.

I think that's true for many SE Asian peoples, cows milk consumption is mainly a western habit, so dairy products to those places would most likely be consumed by westerners who live there, thus it's such a small market.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson refusing to meet SF on his visit to the north today.

https://amp.independent.ie/news/boris-johnson-refuses-to-meet-sinn-feins-mary-lou-mcdonald-on-northern-ireland-visit-40188200.html?__twitter_impression=true

I'm no SF supporter but the UK govt seems determined to send out all the wrong optics.

According to rte news, she would not see him unless under her terms.


https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0312/1203612-northern-ireland-politics/

Deputy First Minister and Sinn Féin's leader in Northern Ireland Michelle O'Neill has said she will not be seeing the prime minister as her request for a meeting involving herself and her party leader Mary Lou McDonald was not facilitated.

BonnieSituation

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/uk-to-depart-from-gdpr/5107685.article

Depending how far Uk is planning on departing from gdpr, this is going to be another kick for uk services

Gdpr is already a huge subject in my current employer with many man hours put in as it’s becoming a worldwide standard almost

I think we can add that to the list of de facto standards developed in the EU to improve the quality of life of its citizens.

Imagine that.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

According to rte news, she would not see him unless under her terms.


https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0312/1203612-northern-ireland-politics/

She's the dFM. And he's visiting her jurisdiction for want of a better word, so he should facilitate that meeting. I know it's easy to go all "buh SF" on this like Tommie is wont to do.

An Claidheamh

BonnieSituation wrote: »

She's the dFM. And he's visiting her jurisdiction for want of a better word, so he should facilitate that meeting. I know it's easy to go all "buh SF" on this like Tommie is wont to do.

Tommie is probably hoping to be grand marshall in the norn iron centenary parade, retire on a high

McGiver

Deleted User wrote: »

Just look at the current range of EVs that are starting to come out of China, they're already there.
Give it about a decade or so and the streets here will be full of them, many with badges of defunct western car makers, the same way as old electrical goods labels are appearing on new Chinese products already.

Agree.
China is with carmaking where Japan was 50 years ago and Korea 25 years ago. Give it 5 years and you'll see Chinese cars in Europe everywhere.

They already dominate soft tech (electronics).

rock22

At last , labour are waking up and starting to ask questions about the disastrous Trade deal.

Perhaps now we will see the media take a bit more interest in the after-effects of Brexit

schmoo2k

rock22 wrote: »

At last , labour are waking up and starting to ask questions about the disastrous Trade deal.

Perhaps now we will see the media take a bit more interest in the after-effects of Brexit

While it is satisfying, the worst thing for ROI would be the UK reverting to a hard Brexit and forcing the EU to decide if they need to setup customs between NI and ROI or ROI and mainland EU...

Enzokk

Seems like UK business that export to the EU aren't happy that they are being drowned in red tape but companies exporting to the UK are not facing the same issues,

https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1370299228384268288?s=20

Not really surprising, then again this is the party of "F%^k Business!".

BonnieSituation

schmoo2k wrote: »

While it is satisfying, the worst thing for ROI would be the UK reverting to a hard Brexit and forcing the EU to decide if they need to setup customs between NI and ROI or ROI and mainland EU...

We are the EU?

Oafley Jones

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We are the EU?

Also, ROI is a football team.

schmoo2k

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We are the EU?

Err yes - if UK renege on the WA, then the EU (us) will be forced to put up a border somewhere?

If the EU put up a border between NI and ROI then we end up being the ones breaking the GFA.

Equally putting the border up between Ireland and mainland would not be acceptable...

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like UK business that export to the EU aren't happy that they are being drowned in red tape but companies exporting to the UK are not facing the same issues,

https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1370299228384268288?s=20

Not really surprising, then again this is the party of "F%^k Business!".

And yet realities have still not sunk in over there, from the article:

Richard Burnett, head of the Road Haulage Association, said postponing import controls also risks weakening the U.K.’s negotiating leverage when asking for similar easements from the EU.

said Shane Brennan, the lobby group’s chief executive. “It’s not clear how this action will give the EU an incentive to be more willing to discuss ways to reduce the burdens on U.K. exporters.”

It does not matter what UK does; EU are not going to lower their standards for UK. What is now in place are the standard controls for a third party country; there's no negotiation about easements because UK can't be trusted as a trading partner (and this is before we'd even start talking about what UK would have to give up for equivalence etc.). The fact that this still has not sunk in yet is honestly worrying; this is the new normal and it's not going away. The sooner UK businesses realizes that and act accordingly the better; because that's the kick up the butt of actual consequences that can start to force the broader population to realize what's going on.

Ramasun

schmoo2k wrote: »

While it is satisfying, the worst thing for ROI would be the UK reverting to a hard Brexit and forcing the EU to decide if they need to setup customs between NI and ROI or ROI and mainland EU...

The worst thing for Ireland right now would be a border poll.

The UK is signed up to two International treaties and it's their responsibility to honour them.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1370477712867987457


Reminder, the UK has already signed up to the protocol.

Also the FT reported today that several member states are talking of counter measures (financial services most likely) if the UK continues down the path it's on which is breaking the law.

Akrasia

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

How much is that in brexit red buses per week?

Jokes aside looking through newspaper headlines in UK, nothing...

This is just going to be swept under carpet, what I really wonder is how the farmers and food producers over there are not squealing murder outside downing street

about 107 million per week in lost revenue for British exporters. not to mention the additional costs involved in those exporters who managed to get their goods over the border, higher duty, reduced prices as the goods may have degraded due to increased transport times

And what percentage of that export figure was made up from increased transport costs Logistics costs have increased for some businesses by more than 400%
The cost of transport is included in the value of exports as anyone who has had to pay duty on a shipment from outside the EU knows.

How much have they had to pay in warehousing costs to hold more stock because JIT supply chains are no longer viable, How much have they had to pay in extra administration to complete declarations and pay fees and charges for paperwork to be filed and validated?

And then there are have the increased costs from importing goods from the EU, or outside the EU, and then having to pay tariffs to export to the EU because they no longer satisfy the rules of origin

The costs of having to have an EU based office in many cases.....

Of the 6 or 7 billion the UK managed to export to the UK, the actual profit margins on those transactions will be significantly lower in a lot of cases

Its an absolute nightmare for any business who relies on the EU market for raw materials, or as a market for their goods and services

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Office for Budget Responsibility is a UK government agency whose job is to provide independent and authoritative economic forecasts and analysis of the public finances. Although publicly funded and overseen by the Treasury, it acts independently of political control. This is intentional, since its job is includes evaluating the Government's performance against its fiscal targets, and scrutinising government policy costings.

Their analysis is that, given the terms of the WA and the TCA, Brexit will result, long-term, in a 4% hit to UK productivity . That is, every year into the indefinite future, UK GDP will be 4% lower than it would have been, but for Brexit.

UK GDP for 2019 was £2.173 trillion, so that translates to an annual cost to the UK national economy of £87 billion (in 2019 pounds). It means a hit to government finances - i.e. tax receipts lower than they would otherwise have been - of about £40 billion.

(OBR hasn't modelled the extent to which these costs might be offset by improvements to productivity from better trade deals that the UK might negotiate with the rest of the world. It can't model those trade deals, because none of them exist yet. But other modelling suggests that, on the most optimistic view of possible future trade deals, less than 10% of the Brexit hit can be offset.)

The full economic impact of Brexit hasn't hit yet, obviously. We've seen the trade disruption but the full costs - business failures, unemployment, etc - will only unfold over time. OBR estimates than in 2021, the adverse impact on government finances will be only (!) £30 billion; it will rise in later years.

Treasury quietly accepts OBR/s analysis; it has used it in support of the budget introduced this week.

The budget includes £29 billion of tax increases. This is presented as something necessary to finance Covid-related expenditure. But, in fact, it would more or less what would have been needed simply to keep government finances unchanged post Brexit, even if there had been no Covid, no pandemic and no associated extraordinary expenditure. The Covid-related expenditure comes on top of that and, realistically, is being financed entirely by borrowing.

40 billion per year in extra taxes is £660 for every man woman and child in the UK

The Median per capita income in the UK is £8902.48, so to pay for the 40bn a year tax shortfall caused by brexit, it's 7.5% of this median income per year

Or basically £1.50 out of every £20 in post tax income for the median income household is eaten up by the costs of brexit. Forever. (actually, could be even more if the Tories push a greater burden onto lower income families and reduce their benefits or pensions or student grants, or charge higher council tax etc etc etc etc)

And while these taxes are forced to go up, what's happening to wages? Well, there's a recession, wages go down, emigration is no longer an option because freedom of travel is ended, so unemployment goes up, no money to pay the dole for these young people hung out to dry, so what happens next?

Brexit is just such a stupid idea, implemented by the worst people imaginable and the public have been so poorly informed that they won't even know they're screwed until they get the results of the STD test when it's way way too late to fix the damage.

Akrasia

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/uk-to-depart-from-gdpr/5107685.article

Depending how far Uk is planning on departing from gdpr, this is going to be another kick for uk services

Gdpr is already a huge subject in my current employer with many man hours put in as it’s becoming a worldwide standard almost

Are you flipping kidding me?

I work in an industry that involves transferring a large volume of personal information between servers in the EU, and our clients in the UK

If the UK depart from GDPR, we, as data processers, won't be able to send personal data held inside the EU to the UK base data controllers, without having to have individual data processing agreements with every single client.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/law-topic/data-protection/international-dimension-data-protection/standard-contractual-clauses-scc_en

Its going to make any UK company who has subsidiary offices in the EU have to basically agree to emulate GDPR within their own organisation or lose access to their employee's personal information

The penalties for breaching GDPR are very severe

Frank Bullitt

The Daily Express doing what they do best and spin more than a washing machine.

How anyone can buy this paper is beyond me.

JamesFlynn

Akrasia wrote: »

about 107 million per week in lost revenue for British exporters.
...
Its an absolute nightmare for any business who relies on the EU market for raw materials, or as a market for their goods and services

Agreed, and the damage is done and it's over.

The British will complain and fight the details but this is what they voted for and their government negotiated and committed to. They are now a third country to Europe by their own choice.

If the European Commission cave in to British demands to pretend everything is as it was before Brexit, then why on earth would any country stay in the EU?

Happily a Biden/Harris US will maintain international agreements. I suspect the British don't understand that the Irish also have a voice in Washington.

Brexit might well be in the long term a great strategic move, we just won't know for 50 years. I personally think the U.K. has been taken over by empire nostalgic deluded nationalists (they think India, Kenya, etc want them back). it's idiocy, but hey, good luck to them.

It's over.

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

Just look at the current range of EVs that are starting to come out of China, they're already there.
Give it about a decade or so and the streets here will be full of them, many with badges of defunct western car makers, the same way as old electrical goods labels are appearing on new Chinese products already.

The MG ZS Ev coming this year is exactly this export model
A chinese company trading a chinese product in the EU under a recognisable British brand

The Renault are going to resell Chinese EV cars under their Dacia and Renault brands
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/renaults-made-china-dacia-ev-angers-french-unions

While the EU car manufacturers were focused on falsifying diesel emissions tests, the Chinese were developing the technolgy to mass produce the next generation of transportation technology

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

40 billion per year in extra taxes is £660 for every man woman and child in the UK

Cost of Brexit so far is about £200Bn

Foreign Aid cuts of £30bn are lined up, by reducing both the % of GDP donated and by reducing GDP growth.

Akrasia

JamesFlynn wrote: »

Agreed, and the damage is done and it's over.

The British will complain and fight the details but this is what they voted for and their government negotiated and committed to. They are now a third country to Europe by their own choice.

If the European Commission cave in to British demands to pretend everything is as it was before Brexit, then why on earth would any country stay in the EU?

Happily a Biden/Harris US will maintain international agreements. I suspect the British don't understand that the Irish also have a voice in Washington.

Brexit might well be in the long term a great strategic move, we just won't know for 50 years. I personally think the U.K. has been taken over by empire nostalgic deluded nationalists (they think India, Kenya, etc want them back). it's idiocy, but hey, good luck to them.

It's over.

We've reached the end of the beginning, we're starting on the beginning of the middle, and are nowhere near the beginning of the end

This 'Get Brexit Done' mantra may end up being the biggest own goal in history

It's like ending a siege by simply opening the gates of the city and letting the murderous hoard of zombies inside to kill everyone because people are sick of talking about the siege.

Infini

Ramasun wrote: »

The worst thing for Ireland right now would be a border poll.

The UK is signed up to two International treaties and it's their responsibility to honour them.

I agree that the UK needs to live up to its commitments but at the same time we also need to prepare for this eventuality as well, the truth is the UK is on the path to disintegration with these Tory Charlatans in charge, I wouldn't want something like a border poll rushed but neither would I want to see nothing done about this possibility either, we need planning and at least some sort of preperation for the possibility of this passing.