Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

breezy1985

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

As a dilletante in comparison to a lot of posters here, I will say that UK does not seem to have suffered much YET in relation to Brexit. But many other countries including our own seem to be affected.

I do understand that procurement of vaccines was not EU led and any EU country could have arranged our own supplies, but as a tiny nation in the scheme of things we probably had to rely on central distribution by EU.

So to reverse the story, how has Brexit affected the EU. It doesn't seem to have affected UK yet.....

Pure waffle.
The average wage in the UK is about 10k lower than here which was fine when sterling was 80p to E1 but its almost dropped to parity and is really only going one direction. Add to that multiple business already complaining about supply chain issues and big losses due to lack of foreign trade

Piehead

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

As a dilletante in comparison to a lot of posters here, I will say that UK does not seem to have suffered much YET in relation to Brexit. But many other countries including our own seem to be affected.

I do understand that procurement of vaccines was not EU led and any EU country could have arranged our own supplies, but as a tiny nation in the scheme of things we probably had to rely on central distribution by EU.

So to reverse the story, how has Brexit affected the EU. It doesn't seem to have affected UK yet.....

Have a look here for impacts to the UK - positive and negative so far......

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-dossier/

breatheme

sondagefaux wrote: »

The rollout of the vaccination in the UK has been far faster than anywhere in the EU to date.

The UK is also counting first jabs as vaccines when that's not truly vaccinated. If you need two jabs of a vaccine to be vaccinated, you're only half-vaccinated. And EU countries are respecting the manufacturer's recommendation to space the vaccine 21/28 days, while in the UK it may take up two 12 weeks to get the second shot. Almost a full three months.

The implications of this have not been tested and we don't know what will happen.

At best, you may have not fully immune people in the UK spread across a larger portion of the population and enough to gain herd immunity.

At worst, it may lead to a vaccine-resistant Covid strain.

Spanish Eyes

Thanks for replies to someone who does not see much downside for UK now.

Perhaps it will filter through eventually to UK, but for the moment all I can see is customs duty etc. on good procured from UK, whereas they can source a lot of their goods at home. Well maybe salads, tomatoes, and other EU food might be an issue I get that. Along with other stuff too.

The fact is, it is not making any traction at all for UK. Even the expats/immigrants to places like Spain and France seem grand.

ilovesmybrick

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Even the expats/immigrants to places like Spain and France seem grand.

That's great, I must tell my colleagues from the UK in Austria that thet don't need to worry about the registration and bureaucratic stuff they're trying to work through since it's all grand.

Just because it seems fine because the focus is on COVID doesn't mean there aren't problems cropping up. The issue is the EU media really doesn't give a fig about Brexit anymore, and the UK media is happy to ignore it to focus on the pandemic.

Spanish Eyes

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

That's great, I must tell my colleagues from the UK in Austria that thet don't need to worry about the registration and bureaucratic stuff they're trying to work through since it's all grand.

Just because it seems fine because the focus is on COVID doesn't mean there aren't problems cropping up. The issue is the EU media really doesn't give a fig about Brexit anymore, and the UK media is happy to ignore it to focus on the pandemic.

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

ilovesmybrick

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

I'm going to work on the assumption that you, and the millions of others, understand the massive disruptions in trade and travel that have been caused by COVID...

No, the issues are not only on the EU side. I honestly don't know how you have come to that assumption but as a small example the bookdepository halted deliveries to the EU for a few weeks, and when they restarted prices bumped. This was not an EU issue per se, this was an issue that the UK is now a third country and can no longer trade seamlessly.

In work due to the issues with trades in services we are now moving a 50k contract from the UK to a supplier in the EU. It might be small beans in the grand scheme of things, but the transition to third party status for the EU made utter crap of a lot of our financial procurements and tax payments this year that have made the past few weeks a right balls, so we're moving every contract we can away from UK suppliers.

The UK can laugh their socks off all the want at the moment, and they have been, but it is temporary. I have said this before on this thread, there are an awful lot of countries in the EU that have no historical trade system with the UK that are frankly pissed off at this nonsense. As the only Irish person in my institute I warned our admin of the potential problems with some of our UK suppliers (who still haven't updated their information) and it only became apparent when contracts began to be sent back this week, and now we've been told to cut out any UK contract we can.

I'm not going to say it's necessary, I'm not going to say it's required. But why would you bother dealing with the nonsense that Brexit has caused getting services with the UK when you can just go through any of the other 27 countries?

joeysoap

breezy1985 wrote: »

Pure waffle.
The average wage in the UK is about 10k lower than here which was fine when sterling was 80p to E1 but its almost dropped to parity and is really only going one direction. Add to that multiple business already complaining about supply chain issues and big losses due to lack of foreign trade

It’s not much use now anyhow, but as a ‘border’ resident I keep an eye on sterling. It’s staying remarkably strong.

Ps anyone with ‘Paper’ notes should get rid of them as soon as possible. A lot of Newry shops won’t take them now .

Back to topic

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

... I could easily see Norway and Iceland vetoing their entry unless they gave cast iron guarantees they wouldn't try and wreck the association, now or at any point in the future.

the EU /all 27 member states are EEA members too. The UK can't join the SM and/or the CU without EU approval (all members) in addition to Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

With such major questions it is not (just) a matter of a legal possibility, it is above all a matter of power - and the EU has that big time.

Lars

sondagefaux

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

If someone in the EU can't import from the UK, that means someone in the UK can't export to the EU.

Even the most superficial examination should bring that realisation to mind.

Now think of what that means for jobs and investment in the most affected UK sectors.

There are plenty of examples in the previous few pages.

sondagefaux

joeysoap wrote: »

It’s not much use now anyhow, but as a ‘border’ resident I keep an eye on sterling. It’s staying remarkably strong.

Ps anyone with ‘Paper’ notes should get rid of them as soon as possible. A lot of Newry shops won’t take them now .

Back to topic

Strong compared to when? In the months before the Brexit referendum, £1.00 was worth in and around €1.30.

It's rarely broken €1.15 since then.

I dunno, maybe 2016 is regarded as ancient history these days. :rolleyes:

Peregrinus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off.

If they are, they're laughing too soon.

What we're seeing at the moment is the difficulty EU consumers have in buying from the UK. As Sondagefaux points out, that translates directly into difficulties that UK producers have in selilng into the EU. They're not laughing about that. And, as the UK sends a much greater percentage of what i produces to the EU than the percentatge of its consumption that the EU buys from the UK, this is a much bigger problem for UK producers than it is for EU consumers.

But the other reason why you're selling difficulties in UK > EU trade rather than the other way around is that, despite having been demanding Canada-stuyle trading rules for the past 12 months, it turns out - big surprise here - that the UK is wholly unprepared to apply Canada-style rules. So they've given themselves a six-month extension; they won't be applying the new rules to EU > UK trade until July. When they do, UK consumers will feel the squeeze that the UK producers are now feeling.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

Credit where credit is due; the UK were ahead of the game in approving vaccines, and they are ahead of the game in organising distribution of vaccines.

As regards procurement, AstraZenica seems to be prioritising deliver to the UK over delivery to the EU, and saying that their contracts with both entities provide for this. The EU takes a different view of the contracts. As the contracts haven't been published, we don't know which of these competing views is closer to the truth.

But, assuming AstraZenica is correct, what we have here is an orthodox example of the "prisoner's dilemma" problem. The UK contract stipulated that, in the event of shortage of supply, the UK would get priority over other countries; the EU contract did not. In game theory terms, the UK's first move was unco-operative, while the EU's was co-operative. Since the EU has suffered as a result, game theory (and common sense) predicts that the EU's next move will be unco-operative (as will the UK's). Vaccines sourcing becomes a beggar-my-neighgbour process, with countries prioritising not to increasing the supply of the vaccine to meet demand, but securing priority access to such vaccine as is being produced. E.g. the EU is talking about banning the export of vaccine if there is unmet demand in the EU. (Exports bans for medicines are common enough, and the UK has many in place.) This is bad for everyone (including the UK, as the vaccine is produced in the EU), but the whole point of the prisoner's dilemma is to identify areas where competition destroys value, rather than creating it. This is one such area.

This isn't a brexit-related issue, since the UK negotated and signed its VACCINE contracts while fully subject to EU rules, in full compliance with those rules, and could freely do what it is doing today even if were still a member of the EU. But there may be a lesson here that is indirectly relevant to Brexit; in so far as Brexit seeks to have the UK compete with the EU rather than co-operate in the EU, any benefits that accrue to the UK may be very transient.

listermint

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

There's millions of tons of fish that haven't left the UK since Dec 31st.

Pork farmers can't sell their pigs the same for lamb.

Nissan yesterday cut a further 160 jobs in the factory they the UK government gave them billion stipend to keep open.

Countless vehicle manufacturers including home grown ones aren't opening production lines in the UK they are doing it in eastern europe.

The city of London yesterday was told New York now has open equivalency access into the EU financial market. This will absolutely devastate jobs in London and any associated with it.

Millions of people have left the UK over the last 12months.


The UK press aren't covering any of this because they are owned lock stock by Tory backers.


You are absolutely under informed and positively gleeful in being so. It's bizarre. I'd be embarrassed to display such ignorance on a subject and do it with such confidence.

Things are most certainly not going well. And there's no light coming down the tunnel. The light touch eu approach ends in about 5 months...

Hurrache

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The fact is, it is not making any traction at all for UK. Even the expats/immigrants to places like Spain and France seem grand.

Any facts around the reality of Brexit gain no traction in the UK because of their absolutely awful media, baring 1 or two exceptions. They didn't report the reality of it coming up to the vote, and they're not reporting the reality after they left.

You've really lapped it up anyway, despite pages of issues they're having on this thread alone.

Akrasia

Lemming wrote: »

News just in: CEO of company on 100% indemnity gravy train in not-rocking-the-boat shocker ...

As for the politics; the problem here is AZ's explanations to the powers that be were (are still?) not up to snuff, combined with their CEO making misleading public statements about their contractual obligations, has led to a severe case of distrust. EU member states are understandably fuming given they have coughed up considerable funding.

The vaccine was trialed and tested based on the 3 week window between the first injection and the booster
Doesn't matter what the CEO says, there isn't data to support his claim that the booster is 'optimal' after 8/9 weeks

Not to mention the fact that it leaves all of those people with only partial protection for an additional 6 weeks during which they can still get sick, die, pass on the virus to others etc

sondagefaux

sondagefaux wrote: »

If someone in the EU can't import from the UK, that means someone in the UK can't export to the EU.

Even the most superficial examination should bring that realisation to mind.

Now think of what that means for jobs and investment in the most affected UK sectors.

There are plenty of examples in the previous few pages.

Market realignments will eventually work through these issues.
Instead of exporting widgets and nearby traders are importing the same type of widgets from another country, the manufacturer will sell directly to the trader, thus localising the market. A lot of export/import is simply sending like for like in both directions.


Localisation as opposed to globalisation will reduce the losses for many of those adversely affected by the new customs rules.

prawnsambo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

What you're describing as problems on the EU side are minor inconveniences. Can't shop from Amazon UK (you can actually, it's swings and roundabouts with UK VAT removed and IE VAT added and keep it under €150) but immediately have access to DE and FR etc. UK buyers don't have that option. And if they try and buy from the EU, they are immediately faced with extra charges for paperwork and waiting time by freight forwarders plus customs clearance charges. That's if the EU site will ship there at all; many have just said Nein, Non and Nada. And the problem for the UK is that they import an awful lot of stuff, so all those charges get added on to the price. So their choice is to pay more if they can get it at all or do without.

This is a huge issue for small businesses that import from the EU and also sell there. They're screwed both ways. Food exports are particularly hard hit. Online sales of food and ingredients to the EU are gone. The only choice for these companies is to move that part of their business to an EU state. And that's not easy either since FoM is gone too.

Professor Moriarty

listermint wrote: »

There's millions of tons of fish that haven't left the UK since Dec 31st.

Pork farmers can't sell their pigs the same for lamb.

Nissan yesterday cut a further 160 jobs in the factory they the UK government gave them billion stipend to keep open.

Countless vehicle manufacturers including home grown ones aren't opening production lines in the UK they are doing it in eastern europe.

The city of London yesterday was told New York now has open equivalency access into the EU financial market. This will absolutely devastate jobs in London and any associated with it.

Millions of people have left the UK over the last 12months.


The UK press aren't covering any of this because they are owned lock stock by Tory backers.


You are absolutely under informed and positively gleeful in being so. It's bizarre. I'd be embarrassed to display such ignorance on a subject and do it with such confidence.

Things are most certainly not going well. And there's no light coming down the tunnel. The light touch eu approach ends in about 5 months...

As if by magic.... This morning Reuters, probably the most independent news source in the world, is leading with a few articles on the economic impact of Brexit on the UK. This is most unusual as they normally lead with US news. Here is the article

From the article:

British factories reported the steepest increase in supplier delivery times among the six “flash” preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys published by IHS Markit last week for France, Germany, Japan, Australia and the United States as well as the United Kingdom.

“This was almost exclusively linked to both Brexit disruption and a severe lack of international shipping availability,” IHS Markit said.


Within the article, Australia, Japan, Germany, US, UK and France are compared under three different metrics on graphs (they are too big so here is the analysis):

Supplier delivery times index: Average 17. UK worst at 27.
Export orders index drop (50+ = growth): Average 44. UK worst at 39.
Factory competitiveness in the EU: UK has averaged 0 over the past 20 years with its worst being a brief dip to -20 in 2000. Today: -41


This is an allied 'Factbox' article outlining other impacts of Brexit on the UK economy.

BonnieSituation

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

How can you still post such naive stuff?

Liberalbrehon

Piehead wrote: »

Have a look here for impacts to the UK - positive and negative so far......

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-dossier/

That link is scary on the issues visible so far. Jesus, what have the British done to themselves and others. For what? GB will be a changed country in 2030. Certainly won't be going back to the glory days, whenever they were.

Lemming

Akrasia wrote: »

Not to mention the fact that it leaves all of those people with only partial protection for an additional 6 weeks during which they can still get sick, die, pass on the virus to others etc

Read part of a random article yesterday on my phone's news app (so fvcked if I can find it again ... ) about two UK nurses getting infected despite having had their initial vaccine shots. The article wasn't exactly clear on how long after, but I see to recall one of them saying something about a few days, but it does underscore the ignorance of a lot of people that as soon as they have that jab they're good to party. Also raises the question of just how big a gamble is the UK's present strategy of delaying the booster jab

J Mysterio

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I did say I was skimming the surface of this. Seems fine to me and millions of others now despite Covid. Apart from the Amazon.UK site and imports from UK all is well, but I have moved to the German .de site now. Supporting EU lol.

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off. Just look at vaccine procurement, they are ahead of the posse for sure, no denying it, the EU is lagging behind now.

Bunch of articles in the Irish Times for you to read.

Brexit protocol-driven scarcities drive North towards discontent
NI stability at risk as empty shelves, VAT and red tape stir up constitutional anxieties

Amazon stops alcohol sales in the North due to Brexit rules – report
Online retailer said to be preparing to delist more products

Credit analysts say UK economy will shrink as Brexit deal ‘lacks substance’

Jim Allister says NI protocol points towards push for united Ireland

More articles there still. All saying UK economy shrinking amid increased trading difficulties, NI/ GB, EU/ GB trading difficulties as a result of Brexit.

NI moving towards UI. Scotland moving to independence.

UK sure laughing their socks off alright. What a success.

Akrasia

sondagefaux wrote: »

If someone in the EU can't import from the UK, that means someone in the UK can't export to the EU.

Even the most superficial examination should bring that realisation to mind.

Now think of what that means for jobs and investment in the most affected UK sectors.

There are plenty of examples in the previous few pages.

Exactly
Not being able to import an item from a UK supplier is usually an inconvenience for the importer, they have to find a new supplier

Not being able to export to a customer in the EU is a potentially existential crisis for the exporter because without customers, no business is viable, and if you lose a significant percentage of your customer base overnight,you're facing insolvency or a serious rationalisation process to cut your business back down to size

Brexiteers promised that they would be able to replace lost trade with the EU with better access to the rest of the world. That has not materialised, quite the opposite has happened. The UK lost thousands of bilateral arrangements that they had as part of EU SM and CU membership, so they are trading with many countries under WTO rules, that, 'Shock' are not as favourable as the likes of Farage would have had you believe

Many businesses are finding that import and export tariffs are the least of their worries, it's everything else that goes along with it, the paperwork, the inspections, the certifications, the quotas, new procurement procedures, Rules of Origin, the logistics, the changes in regulations that are making it economically unviable to export to previously lucrative markets

And the worst thing, is that there is no discernable strategy for the UK to extricate itself from this mess of their own making. They haven't got any trade strategy apart from some kite flying about a new vaguely racist trading block made up a few of their ex colonies who aren't primarily brown skinned

And even if they managed to get their trading block up and running within the lifetime of the Tory government, (a mammoth task that has practically zero chance of actually happening) it would be nowhere even remotely close to replacing the lost markets from leaving the most prosperous trading block on earth

Zubeneschamali

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

In fairness, all the issues seem to be on the EU side, but temporarily hopefully, all down to importing from the UK.

The UK are laughing their socks off.

Difficulties exporting from the UK are no laughing matter for them. Barriers to trade means less trade means less money.

EU customers will adapt, start sourcing from other EU countries. UK customers will just have to pay more since the UK cannot make all its own stuff. UK exporters will go broke.

prawnsambo

Akrasia wrote: »

And even if they managed to get their trading block up and running within the lifetime of the Tory government, (a mammoth task that has practically zero chance of actually happening) it would be nowhere even remotely close to replacing the lost markets from leaving the most prosperous trading block on earth

And it would be far more expensive to sell there. The other problem with these new markets is that they have matured and have their own trading blocs and supply chains that follow the rule of gravity in trade. Their suppliers are closer, have less barriers and associated costs. It's literally starting from scratch with economies that are fractions of the size of the EU.

Akrasia

Lemming wrote: »

Read part of a random article yesterday on my phone's news app (so fvcked if I can find it again ... ) about two UK nurses getting infected despite having had their initial vaccine shots. The article wasn't exactly clear on how long after, but I see to recall one of them saying something about a few days, but it does underscore the ignorance of a lot of people that as soon as they have that jab they're good to party. Also raises the question of just how big a gamble is the UK's present strategy of delaying the booster jab

And the biggest fear of all, that partially vaccinated people are potential incubators for the virus and lead to a higher risk of mutations leading to vaccine resistant strains

The UK, and any other country that decide to boost their figures by partially vaccinating people are playing a dangerous game of russian roulette that could set the whole world back to square 1

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

EU customers will adapt, start sourcing from other EU countries. UK customers will just have to pay more since the UK cannot make all its own stuff. UK exporters will go broke.

UK relearns how to make stuff, localisation instead of globalisation, then the requirements for "frictionless" trade become less important.
Too many traders have taken the easy option of getting it cheaper from China or the from the EU rather than looking closer to home, they may now need to reconsider those choices.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

UK relearns how to make stuff, localisation instead of globalisation, then the requirements for "frictionless" trade become less important.
Too many traders have taken the easy option of getting it cheaper from China or the from the EU rather than looking closer to home, they may now need to reconsider those choices.

This is ridiculous. The UK abandoned their manufacturing sector instead of adapting and supporting it. The Germans did the opposite but they manufacturing high technology goods. Goods are produced in China because they have to be to keep costs down. According to this, a US-produced iPhone would cost $2,000 and that was in 2014.

Globalisation is here to stay. There's been too much regional specialisation and benefit from it for it to change. The EU is attempting to manage it which is what successive British governments should have done in their own backyard. Trying to turn back the clock now would just destroy the British economy and turn it into a third world state.

If you want localism, go to Cuba.

Igotadose

Deleted User wrote: »

UK relearns how to make stuff, localisation instead of globalisation, then the requirements for "frictionless" trade become less important.
Too many traders have taken the easy option of getting it cheaper from China or the from the EU rather than looking closer to home, they may now need to reconsider those choices.

What do they eat in the meantime, as the UK is not self-sufficient in food production?

And where do they get their kettles and washing machines?

"Relearning" means disruption and turmoil. All to reach parity to where they were a year ago. While watching the rest of the world whizz by.

Zubeneschamali

[Deleted User] wrote: »

UK relearns how to make stuff, localisation instead of globalisation, then the requirements for "frictionless" trade become less important.

And then they conquer Mars.