Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

View

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If they force a border on this island, they can forget an FTA with the EU and USA. It would be eminently stupid but political stupidity is custom and practice for Johnson and his populists.

In the short term that’s true.

Obviously had the U.K. opted to end the (U.K.) CTA, let’s say, ten or twenty years ago, the existence of a border would not now be an obstacle to a post-Brexit FTA.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

Obviously had the U.K. opted to end the (U.K.) CTA, let’s say, ten or twenty years ago, the existence of a border would not now be an obstacle to a post-Brexit FTA.

Worth remembering that the only thing that stopped them was the opposition by a certain highly vocal, persistently aggrieved section of the NI population, an orange-coloured tail that somehow manages to repeatedly wag the red-white-and-blue dog.

Jizique

CelticRambler wrote: »

Worth remembering that the only thing that stopped them was the opposition by a certain highly vocal, persistently aggrieved section of the NI population, an orange-coloured tail that somehow manages to repeatedly wag the red-white-and-blue dog.

The desire to fall out over soil is a strange one, given that the ban has been in place since 1972, before either Ireland or the UK joined the old EEC

ArmaniJeanss

This is low-content stuff, but I do so love these vox-pop type articles from amongst the immigrants in Spain.
This one in yesterdays Times is centred on Benidorm - with opinion ranging from 'we tried to warn you' to 'if only we'd all stuck together there would have been sunny uplands and I'll bash the head off anyone who says otherwise'.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tempers-fray-among-expats-as-brexit-rules-cast-shadow-over-costa-sunspots-fb5c37dbp?shareToken=c418fba9ec6378966d793bca8c668c00

I don't think it's behind a paywall.

roosterman71

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is low-content stuff, but I do so love these vox-pop type articles from amongst the immigrants in Spain.
This one in yesterdays Times is centred on Benidorm - with opinion ranging from 'we tried to warn you' to 'if only we'd all stuck together there would have been sunny uplands and I'll bash the head off anyone who says otherwise'.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tempers-fray-among-expats-as-brexit-rules-cast-shadow-over-costa-sunspots-fb5c37dbp?shareToken=c418fba9ec6378966d793bca8c668c00

I don't think it's behind a paywall.

Not behind a paywall. Still not calling themselves immigrants either it seems

Times Article wrote:

The Brexit vote was nearly five years ago, but the battle continues in Spain where the largest British expatriate community in Europe

Igotadose

roosterman71 wrote: »

Not behind a paywall. Still not calling themselves immigrants either it seems

Great quotes in that article:

Times Article wrote:

“We were warning about the consequences of Brexit, but nobody took any notice. Now our lives have changed for ever."

“We are very sad as we adore our house in Spain. We never imagined that Brexit would stop all this. It is awful.”

Spain's attractive. Raised in NYC myself, so tengo un poco de Espanol, and driving on the right side is not bother. Of course, we're EU citizens. Might be some cheap 2d-hand housing for sale in Spain.

Not sure I'd want to be surrounded by a bunch of angry British expats though. As always when you disagree with them they go full hooligan.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Worth remembering that the only thing that stopped them was the opposition by a certain highly vocal, persistently aggrieved section of the NI population, an orange-coloured tail that somehow manages to repeatedly wag the red-white-and-blue dog.

The orange tail is wagging nothing. There was a spell when the DUP had real influence over proceedings and could have used that for the benefit of NI as a whole. They could have insisted that any deal retain NI's access to EU funding and the single market as well as farmers' subsidies and come across as defenders of NI's interests. Instead, they settled for a grubby little bribe.

Now, they're back to what they were which is a convenient prop for Tory Europhobes to use and abuse as they see fit. Even now, they can't see it. Some of their values would be considered abhorrent by many people in the mainland.

Ultimately, the only people who care about Unionists are the security personnel and intelligence analysts who're monitoring for potential terrorist threats.

The DUP took a blinding, once-in-a-lifetime hand and played it appallingly.

yagan

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is low-content stuff, but I do so love these vox-pop type articles from amongst the immigrants in Spain.
This one in yesterdays Times is centred on Benidorm - with opinion ranging from 'we tried to warn you' to 'if only we'd all stuck together there would have been sunny uplands and I'll bash the head off anyone who says otherwise'.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tempers-fray-among-expats-as-brexit-rules-cast-shadow-over-costa-sunspots-fb5c37dbp?shareToken=c418fba9ec6378966d793bca8c668c00

I don't think it's behind a paywall.

That bit about a previous mass exodus from a British housing state in Spain when their dodgy box couldn't show Coronation Street was hilarious.

When Brexiters in Spain talk of their contribution to the Spanish economy as leverage in Brexit talks what they overlook is that they're talking about their own British ghetto economy, which by the sounds of it is mostly cash in hand.

The unregistered Brits on the costas will be the April fools once their 90 tourist days are up.

yagan

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Sorry for being gloomy but in politics we do have an example of where the neo fascist path uk is embarking down leads

When did they ever stop being fascists?

If they weren't shooting their civilians on UK streets like in Northern Ireland or dropping bombs on civilians in Iraq they were dodgy regime weapons outfitters.

fly_agaric

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I mentioned many times before that UK after brexit is following the path that Russia took 25 or so years ago, and is now beginning a slide to an oligarchic dystopia where corruption is rife, the average person is miserable and poorer and the media is neutered.

Yet some people did not like my Moscow on Thames analogy

But the alarm bells should have been ringing when Tories somehow spun being against human rights as a good thing

And today we have this https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/priti-patel-is-about-to-rush-through-draconian-crackdowns-on-the-right-of-peaceful-protest-257419/

UK will imho endup like Russia. A pariah state on periphery of Europe, with ultra nationalist carry on, economic isolation, domestic apathy due to brainwashing media, an ever oppressive “democracy” and dreams of past empire which it can not get over. Rattling the gates to Europe to remind everyone they might still be relevant.

Sorry for being gloomy but in politics we do have an example of where the neo fascist path uk is embarking down leads

Christ, you'd hope not. It is a very depressing thought if it actually ever gets that bad. Geographically/geopolitically, we're in the position the Baltic states [+ Finland?] are in.
I don't think public, politicians, administrators are in any way ready for that, or IMO ever likely to be able to cope with that level of challenge to the security/stability of this country.

ZeroThreat

fly_agaric wrote: »

Christ, you'd hope not. It is a very depressing thought if it actually ever gets that bad. Geographically/geopolitically, we're in the position the Baltic states [+ Finland?] are in.
I don't think public, politicians, administrators are in any way ready for that, or IMO ever likely to be able to cope with that level of challenge to the security/stability of this country.

TBH if it ever got to that stage in the UK, we'd be annexed in a heartbeat. We have virtually no defences against any sort of hostile action by a much larger aggressor.

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I mentioned many times before that UK after brexit is following the path that Russia took 25 or so years ago, and is now beginning a slide to an oligarchic dystopia where corruption is rife, the average person is miserable and poorer and the media is neutered.

Yet some people did not like my Moscow on Thames analogy

But the alarm bells should have been ringing when Tories somehow spun being against human rights as a good thing

And today we have this https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/priti-patel-is-about-to-rush-through-draconian-crackdowns-on-the-right-of-peaceful-protest-257419/

UK will imho endup like Russia. A pariah state on periphery of Europe, with ultra nationalist carry on, economic isolation, domestic apathy due to brainwashing media, an ever oppressive “democracy” and dreams of past empire which it can not get over. Rattling the gates to Europe to remind everyone they might still be relevant.

Sorry for being gloomy but in politics we do have an example of where the neo fascist path uk is embarking down leads

One very dangerous thing is that their right media now sees it as their sole job to keep Johnson and his Brexit govt in power. The idea of them changing sides and urging their readers to vote against him and the Tories at any point seems utterly unthinkable. So you are already into the scenario of a corrupt government backed by a deeply corrupt press. This is a very dodgy situation for any democracy to find itself in.

yagan

ZeroThreat wrote: »

TBH if it ever got to that stage in the UK, we'd be annexed in a heartbeat. We have virtually no defences against any sort of hostile action by a much larger aggressor.

We joined the EUs common defence pact, Pesco back in 2017.

Plus if we have to reinstate customs posts we'll also be a Frontex border.

If there's a major collapse in GBP as there was for the Rubal back in 1998 then our more challenging problem may become one of economic refugees from Britain.

NeuralNetwork

There’s been an element in the U.K. on the right wing of the Tories and throughout the right leaning press that spent its life bemoaning the ECHR and role of the European institutions in human rights law in general.

So I suspect a lot of the “red tape” being cut may relate to rolling back progressive legislation, some of which may be EU or Council of Europe inspired but some was also genuinely domestic U.K. progress too.

They could well end up attempting to unwind much of the progress that’s been what made Britain an attractive place to live.

It’s easy to forget that the things that made modern Britain a success were the building blocks of socially progressive policies around opening up decent education to all - comprehensive schools, polytechnics, a plethora of universities that were free to access. Then you’d decent social housing, fair welfare supports and of course the NHS.

If you start unravelling all of that you begin to unravel to fabric of post WWII Britain. Those were the foundations of the modern, thriving society that we are familiar with. It cast aside the grim days of extremes of a stratified class system, it was open to immigration and integration and it grew into an interesting and vibrant society.

How it thinks its future is in some imagined version of the 1950s and extreme nationalism is beyond me. It’s a recipe for total disaster and it seems the train just keeps rolling on without anyone to apply the brakes, which were rather cunningly removed.

It’s rapidly turning into a place I don’t even recognise anymore.

VinLieger

ZeroThreat wrote: »

TBH if it ever got to that stage in the UK, we'd be annexed in a heartbeat. We have virtually no defences against any sort of hostile action by a much larger aggressor.

What world are you living in? Neither the EU nor the US would allow that to happen.

yagan

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It’s easy to forget that the things that made modern Britain a success were the building blocks of socially progressive policies around opening up decent education to all - comprehensive schools, polytechnics, a plethora of universities that were free to access. Then you’d decent social housing, fair welfare supports and of course the NHS.

The previous generations could also be fobbed off to bust heads in the colonies, but after Suez the old social tension relief valve of Empire was gone.

Some of old territorial habits spilled over to the costas, but now with that avenue cut off it does feel like chickens coming home to roost.

Seth Brundle

Tony Connelly is reporting that the EU will launch their legal action today.
Will things get even more messy now or will the UK begin to sit up straight? (Personally I think the UK want this to help drive their anti-EU nonsense campaign which they think will somehow give them a moral upper hand or something)

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371366928393109504

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371366933732462594

fly_agaric

ZeroThreat wrote: »

TBH if it ever got to that stage in the UK, we'd be annexed in a heartbeat. We have virtually no defences against any sort of hostile action by a much larger aggressor.

In fairness, post I was responding to was I think trying to make analogy of UK falling down into a sort of "managed democracy"/autocracy analogous to Russia run by very corrupt & autocratic politicians who control the media.

Being realistic now (!), the UK is never going to be a "western Russia" in way you suggest (and I implied) because it will imo always be allied strongly to the US and in NATO for however long that alliance lasts.

It could certainly become a country that is quite unfriendly and hostile to its neighbours (i.e. us) without going to extreme length of war or annexations.
That negative outcome of Brexit would still require a very different policy & mindset here to cope with it.
A "Western Turkey" (?) might be closer to the mark but even that is putting it a bit strong + it would of course require considerable further deterioration in relationships from where we are now.

NeuralNetwork

yagan wrote: »

That bit about a previous mass exodus from a British housing state in Spain when their dodgy box couldn't show Coronation Street was hilarious.

When Brexiters in Spain talk of their contribution to the Spanish economy as leverage in Brexit talks what they overlook is that they're talking about their own British ghetto economy, which by the sounds of it is mostly cash in hand.

The unregistered Brits on the costas will be the April fools once their 90 tourist days are up.

I lived in North of Spain and speak Spanish, but had my first experience of one of those resorts with Spanish friends of mine who’d a holiday home in a village that had been morphed into Blackpool by the Med and it was genuinely eye opening. None of them spoke Spanish and few has any awareness of anything about Spain. There was definitely a bubble economy of British expats shopping in shops run by British expats for British expats and a lot of discussion about “the locals” in weirdly superior tones.

A friend of mine who was working in one of those towns was saying he got a telling off for mispronouncing something in English and he was furious about being lectured by someone about his English fluency while working *in Spain* in a Spanish business.

There was definitely a huge cash in hand economy going on and it just felt very strange to be in Spain yet it might as well have been an Essex housing estate. All they were focused on is the weather and it really wasn’t even a very attractive place.

There was a huge contrast to brits I know in the north of Spain, in Madrid and also in France who just want to be part or Spanish or French life and integrated extremely well.

The other aspect of it is that most of those regions are quite keen to move up the value chain and that kind of tourism may actually not be worth that much to their economies. There are concerns about burden of British pensioners on the healthcare system and their having relatively low spending power. So while they’re welcoming to tourists, it’s a mistake to think they’re not doing their sums and looking at impact of types of tourism and more so long term migration of pensioners to their regions.

There’s a big issue with non resident residents who work cash in hand too and I could see that being cracked down on as it will be far easier to track if they’re nor EU citizens. They also will not want non EU citizens competing for jobs, which often are suited to younger people - Spain still has very high youth unemployment. So I would say life could get a lot less easy going on the Costas as time goes on.

Spanish officialdom can be fairly officious by any standards, so when they start checking for NIEs, residency permits, work permits etc etc they don’t mess around.

NeuralNetwork

I don’t think the comparison to Russia is accurate but I do think the U.K. could become a rather big problem if it continues down this road. However, I think people are also underestimating the other side or British politics. It may yet wake up and the whole country might get dragged back to a more even keel.

Brexit is very much a tool of distraction though and has allowed a lot of unpleasant stuff to happen on plain sight. That’ll eventually wear thin and while I don’t think you’ll see them rejoin the EU, they might end up being a sane neighbour again.

The problem is the parliamentary maths are such that it won’t happen until the next general election, which is a long way to go!

CelticRambler

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I mentioned many times before that UK after brexit is following the path that Russia took 25 or so years ago, and is now beginning a slide to an oligarchic dystopia where corruption is rife, the average person is miserable and poorer and the media is neutered.

Yet some people did not like my Moscow on Thames analogy

As analogies go, I prefer the term Serbia-on-Thames, but otherwise I share your pessimistic outlook - with two corrections: it's England that's going down the "Russia" route, not the UK. The UK is following the Soviet Union model, with the peripheral states indicating that they will cede from the bloc at the earliest opportunity and apply for membership of the EU.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I think we will see a brain drain into Ireland from UK, just like the smarter people left Russia as the future got darker and darker.

yagan wrote: »

If there's a major collapse in GBP as there was for the Rubal back in 1998 then our more challenging problem may become one of economic refugees from Britain.

Well, yes and no to both points. Yes, the "smarter" people are likely to pack their bags and leave (not necessarily to Ireland, as many of these "smart" people are migrants from other EU countries, and others will opt for pastures in faraway places)

But a collapse in GBP will only really affect people who have a transnational existence. If your whole life is based on GBP transactions, buying (or selling) everything from a tin of beans to the family home, then the value of GBP versus the EUR won't have much of an influence on your decision-making. Now there may be some people who realise that what they can earn in the Eurozone would buy them a bigger, better house back in Brexitland, but being non-EUropeans, they won't have the right to work anywhere other than, possibly, Ireland.

redcup342

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Where are all the shocked pikachu face posters now that popped in to this thread around the article 16 fiasco and row back?

How can the inaction of UK in implementing what they agreed to in what was called the best deal ever be spun?

Seems they are playing for time in hope that the news cycle moves on, by time European court finds them in breach years could have passed.

It's not a court persay, it's Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

It merely sits in The Hague but the location bears no relevance to it being in Europe.

There is a clause in the agreement to issue a ruling in 6 months.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:12020W/TXT&from=EN

Article 172 - Paragraph 2

Within 10 days of the establishment of the arbitration panel the Union or the United Kingdom may submit a
reasoned request to the effect that the case is urgent. In that case, the arbitration panel shall give a ruling on the urgency
within 15 days from the receipt of such request. If it has determined the urgency of the case, the arbitration panel shall
make every effort to notify its ruling to the Union and the United Kingdom within 6 months from the date of its
establishment.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Where are all the shocked pikachu face posters now that popped in to this thread around the article 16 fiasco and row back?

How can the inaction of UK in implementing what they agreed to in what was called the best deal ever be spun?

Seems they are playing for time in hope that the news cycle moves on, by time European court finds them in breach years could have passed.

It's not about buying time.

The Conservative party, once it was captured by the Eurosceptics, Europhobes, nationalists and its far right fringe have now decided that perpetual conflict with the EU is the way forward.

This has been the bread and butter of English nationalism for decades now but there's now no reason for them to hold back since they enjoy unfettered control over this country.

What'll happen is that whatever arbitration method is in place will be triggered and ultimately result in the UK being found to be in the wrong and forced to backtrack but by that point, the Tories will have found another pointless fight to pick with the EU to serve as tabloid fodder.

This is how it's going to be. I foolishly thought the country would progress but we're still banging on about Europe. Even after they've gotten what they pursued so doggedly, they have no idea what they actually want so we get this tedious political theatre.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not about buying time.

The Conservative party, once it was captured by the Eurosceptics, Europhobes, nationalists and its far right fringe have now decided that perpetual conflict with the EU is the way forward.

This has been the bread and butter of English nationalism for decades now but there's now no reason for them to hold back since they enjoy unfettered control over this country.

What'll happen is that whatever arbitration method is in place will be triggered and ultimately result in the UK being found to be in the wrong and forced to backtrack but by that point, the Tories will have found another pointless fight to pick with the EU to serve as tabloid fodder.

This is how it's going to be. I foolishly thought the country would progress but we're still banging on about Europe. Even after they've gotten what they pursued so doggedly, they have no idea what they actually want so we get this tedious political theatre.

Spot on.

NeuralNetwork

CelticRambler wrote: »

As analogies go, I prefer the term Serbia-on-Thames, but otherwise I share your pessimistic outlook - with two corrections: it's England that's going down the "Russia" route, not the UK. The UK is following the Soviet Union model, with the peripheral states indicating that they will cede from the bloc at the earliest opportunity and apply for membership of the EU.






Well, yes and no to both points. Yes, the "smarter" people are likely to pack their bags and leave (not necessarily to Ireland, as many of these "smart" people are migrants from other EU countries, and others will opt for pastures in faraway places)

But a collapse in GBP will only really affect people who have a transnational existence. If your whole life is based on GBP transactions, buying (or selling) everything from a tin of beans to the family home, then the value of GBP versus the EUR won't have much of an influence on your decision-making. Now there may be some people who realise that what they can earn in the Eurozone would buy them a bigger, better house back in Brexitland, but being non-EUropeans, they won't have the right to work anywhere other than, possibly, Ireland.

GBP sinking would have a massive impact on average person due to a dramatic fall in purchasing power. It’s fine if you assume all those products are sourced in the U.K. - they’re not many of them are ultimately priced in USD or EUR and none of their energy imports are really priced in GBP, so it’s a big issue.

CelticRambler

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It’s easy to forget that the things that made modern Britain a success were the building blocks of socially progressive policies around opening up decent education to all - comprehensive schools, polytechnics, a plethora of universities that were free to access. Then you’d decent social housing, fair welfare supports and of course the NHS.

If you start unravelling all of that you begin to unravel to fabric of post WWII Britain. Those were the foundations of the modern, thriving society that we are familiar with. It cast aside the grim days of extremes of a stratified class system, it was open to immigration and integration and it grew into an interesting and vibrant society.

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I think people are also underestimating the other side or British politics. It may yet wake up and the whole country might get dragged back to a more even keel.

Decades ago, I predicted that the reunification of Ireland would come about through economic factors rather than any amount of paramilitary flag-waving. I still believe that that's what'll prompt, and see carried, a border poll; but now I'd extend that to include Scottish independence - sooner rather than later - and eventually some kind of Welsh autonomy.

Again, what you've described is the future for England, rather than Britain. The other constituent nations have political parties that are not so deeply rooted in the bipolar Westminster tradition, and all the while they see their freedoms curtailed, their standards of living being eroded as a result of decisions made by unelected bureaucrats in Westminster :rolleyes: the risk of them taking a secessionist stance reduces. The "other side" of English politics doesn't have the same advantage; and neither do they have an electorate that's sufficiently engaged in the political process around which to build a sufficiently disruptive campaign.

View

yagan wrote: »

We joined the EUs common defence pact, Pesco back in 2017.

Plus if we have to reinstate customs posts we'll also be a Frontex border.

If there's a major collapse in GBP as there was for the Rubal back in 1998 then our more challenging problem may become one of economic refugees from Britain.

PESCO isn’t a defence pact.

If we wake up tomorrow morning to discover we are being invaded, there is no obligation on any other EU member state to lodge diplomatic protests about it, much less to provide us with any actual military defence assistance.

dogbert27

CelticRambler wrote: »

Decades ago, I predicted that the reunification of Ireland would come about through economic factors rather than any amount of paramilitary flag-waving. I still believe that that's what'll prompt, and see carried, a border poll; but now I'd extend that to include Scottish independence - sooner rather than later - and eventually some kind of Welsh autonomy.

Again, what you've described is the future for England, rather than Britain. The other constituent nations have political parties that are not so deeply rooted in the bipolar Westminster tradition, and all the while they see their freedoms curtailed, their standards of living being eroded as a result of decisions made by unelected bureaucrats in Westminster :rolleyes: the risk of them taking a secessionist stance reduces. The "other side" of English politics doesn't have the same advantage; and neither do they have an electorate that's sufficiently engaged in the political process around which to build a sufficiently disruptive campaign.

It was written in a script on Star Trek the Next Generation in the early 90's that Irish reunification happened in 2024!

The scene had to be cut out to be shown in the UK and Ireland at the time.

It could actually be a real prediction!

CelticRambler

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

GBP sinking would have a massive impact on average person due to a dramatic fall in purchasing power. It’s fine if you assume all those products are sourced in the U.K. - they’re not many of them are ultimately priced in USD or EUR and none of their energy imports are really priced in GBP, so it’s a big issue.

I accept that - but if GB is adopting the "failed state" model, then what the average Englander currently buys will be replaced by cheaper non-European, below-standard stuff, no doubt imported from those emerging markets we hear so much about. For reasons of political expediency, we're very likely to see non-British corporations and sovereign wealth funds dicate terms and conditions that allow them to put red-white-and-blue stripes on their packaging, and disguise absolute price rises with creative marketing.

View

VinLieger wrote: »

What world are you living in? Neither the EU nor the US would allow that to happen.

Of course they would. Other countries aren’t going to provide any form of military associate to us unless we have a formal defence treaty with them. The best you could hope for is that they’d go “tut, tut” as happened when parts of Ukraine and Georgia were invaded.