Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

NeuralNetwork

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

GBP sinking would have a massive impact on average person due to a dramatic fall in purchasing power. It’s fine if you assume all those products are sourced in the U.K. - they’re not many of them are ultimately priced in USD or EUR and none of their energy imports are really priced in GBP, so it’s a big issue.

£ at the moment is still slowly rising in value relative to the € & €, still a long way short of where it was in 2016 but still creeping up.

dogbert27

View wrote: »

Of course they would. Other countries aren’t going to provide any form of military associate to us unless we have a formal defence treaty with them. The best you could hope for is that they’d go “tut, tut” as happened when parts of Ukraine and Georgia were invaded.

THe Ukraine and Georgia are not part of the EU and do not have the same historic links with the US that Ireland does.

It would be suicidal for the UK to try and annex us.

It would be like Russia trying to take Finland. It's not going to happen.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: What happens to Ireland in the event of an invasion isn't a valid topic for this thread. Please take that debate elsewhere. Thanks.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not about buying time.

The Conservative party, once it was captured by the Eurosceptics, Europhobes, nationalists and its far right fringe have now decided that perpetual conflict with the EU is the way forward.

This has been the bread and butter of English nationalism for decades now but there's now no reason for them to hold back since they enjoy unfettered control over this country.

What'll happen is that whatever arbitration method is in place will be triggered and ultimately result in the UK being found to be in the wrong and forced to backtrack but by that point, the Tories will have found another pointless fight to pick with the EU to serve as tabloid fodder.

This is how it's going to be. I foolishly thought the country would progress but we're still banging on about Europe. Even after they've gotten what they pursued so doggedly, they have no idea what they actually want so we get this tedious political theatre.

Brexit was never about building something new - it was fuelled by "hatred of the other" and was far more about tearing something down. People who bought into the Global Britain idea were naive....most Brexiteers are very negative and reactionary (IMO), they are not visionaries.

NeuralNetwork

dogbert27 wrote: »

It was written in a script on Star Trek the Next Generation in the early 90's that Irish reunification happened in 2024!

The scene had to be cut out to be shown in the UK and Ireland at the time.

It could actually be a real prediction!

It was shown on Sky One and BBC in the 2000s though as the sensitivity about the issue had long since died down. I somehow don't think there was much risk of all the peace-loving, diplomatic, Picard-focused Trekkies joining the 'RA somehow. It just shows how extreme things were in the early 90s on this island though.

It worries me that there seems to be such a short memory in present-day British politics about how fragile that situation is and how much effort was put in through the 1990s to get the peace process to work and the Good Friday Agreement to happen.

It's remarkable that even though the UK is a signatory to it, the process seems better understood on the continent and in the USA.

I think the Tories seem to see the GFA and also devolution as a product of Blair era Labour and something to be 'undone'. The world seems to revolve around their "blue vs red" arguments. It's a terrible shame that it was ever allowed to be rolled into Brexit and it just shows the total lack of statesmanship in the UK at present. I mean, you could have fully trusted the Tories to protect the NI peace process, even under Cameron and even Theresa May did mental and political gymnastics to protect it. She took it seriously, even if she got herself into all sorts of contortions with the DUP.

However, now it's just all up in the air, anything goes and it looks like the stability of Northern Ireland is just another plaything.

From a perspective of anyone outside their bubble: Imagine for a moment, playing with the stability of a region that has been utterly vexed with a very recent conflict that lasted for decades and that was painstakingly resolved through years and years of careful diplomacy, and then for a large, supposedly sensible country to use it as a political football, knowing full well how unstable it could potentially still be and how much damage that could do.

It's an absolute disgrace and I think it needs to be called out a lot more directly. It's like they're living in a parallel universe where everything's just an abstract concept to be written into a tabloid headline.

Hyperbollix

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It worries me that there seems to be such a short memory in present-day British politics about how fragile that situation is and how much effort was put in through the 1990s to get the peace process to work and the Good Friday Agreement to happen.

It's remarkable that even though the UK is a signatory to it, the process seems better understood on the continent and in the USA.

However, now it's just all up in the air, anything goes and it looks like the stability of Northern Ireland is just another plaything.

It's not really a case of there being a loss of memory about NI or the fragile peace process, every one of those MPs know exactly what the implications for the North could be when it comes to Brexit. They just don't care.

This isn't a Tory government like we've seen in our lifetimes. Theresa May might well turn out to be the last "serious" Tory PM we see in No.10 for quite a while. They have been taken over by populists and charlatans who have no compunction about using any and all parlour tricks to get what they want from power. Much like the Republicans in the US, they are now simply a nationalist populist front for two things. Funneling wealth from the poorest to the richest and gorging on the fat of the state through cronyism and corruption on an epic scale. Just look at the NHS track and trace fiasco over there and that is the tip of the iceberg.

As has often been said about Trump, his undoing was his indolence and incompetence. Had he made a fist of the pandemic he would likely be in power today. Boris et al were smarter than that and have now managed to snatch victory from the worst kind of defeat with the vaccine rollout. The enormous mismanagement of the crisis by the govt in 2020 and the record death toll will be erased this year I imagine. He will be Churchill reborn.

NeuralNetwork

Undoubtedly. There’s a cult of personality around Boris which has yet to wear thin. It’s like they see him as having a sort of roguish, upper class charm. I can’t say I understand it.

He’s basically Trump with a different accent and a broader vocabulary (often far too broad).

Enzokk

UK response to the action taken by the EU,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371494224764542980?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371494227142660097?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371494229415985154?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371494231882227715?s=20

So nothing to see here, all is normal. I like how they seem to suggest that this is normal and a way for business to adapt to a new deal. So why would they not allow for a further transition as the deal was being negotiated? They are being silly again, then again what do you expect. They want their cake and they want to eat it, again. Get out from under the ECJ and EU, but keep the trading arrangements as though you are in the EU.

BlitzKrieg

Deleted User wrote: »

£ at the moment is still slowly rising in value relative to the € & €, still a long way short of where it was in 2016 but still creeping up.

Isnt that on the back of the vaccine rollout? If anything was to upset that rollout (like the whole blood clotting fiasco) it could tip £ back in a downward trend?

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

£ at the moment is still slowly rising in value relative to the € & €, still a long way short of where it was in 2016 but still creeping up.

Some in the currency markets say that is due to the Chinese trying to cool their economy, and buying GBP rather than USD as they have reasons not to want/be seen to be buying USD right now.

ujjjjjjjjj

CelticRambler wrote: »

Some in the currency markets say that is due to the Chinese trying to cool their economy, and buying GBP rather than USD as they have reasons not to want/be seen to be buying USD right now.

General reaction to the vaccine roleout and the UK now clearly will be the first European country of any substance to get back open. Also slow recovery from the drops related to Brexit which the market sees as something in the rear view mirror to an extent.

Analysts also see an upside for Sterling in comparison to the Euro due to inflation concerns, slow growth and debt issues in the Eurozone. Not saying that the UK won't face these problems too but Forex is relative not absolute trading.

Grain of truth in the Chinese thing too thing as many big currency movers just ain't liking the Euro ATM and prefer to pile into the riskier currencies be it AUD, NOK, NZD, CAD etc etc.

johnnyskeleton

The textbook explanation of an increase in Sterling vs the Euro would suggest higher demand for Sterling over Euro, typically as a result of a UK Trade surplus or other factors i.e. that the UK is selling more to the EU than vice versa. This textbook explanation does not necessarily account for large scale currency speculation etc.

Thus, in theory an increase in sterling makes EU exports to the UK cheaper while making imports of UK goods more expensive.

If Sterling is rising on the basis of speculation or investor confidence or Chinese currency trades, the net effect is that it will only make the UK's trade deficit to the EU worse in relative terms (albeit the scale of the reduction in trade is likely to mean that even a proportionately larger deficit is still smaller in absolute terms).

CelticRambler

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

General reaction to the vaccine roleout and the UK now clearly will be the first European country of any substance to get back open. Also slow recovery from the drops related to Brexit which the market sees as something in the rear view mirror to an extent.

Any UK vaccine-related boost will be short lived as the UK loses its advantage compared to the rest of Europe/the world, either because those other countries administer more and/or better vaccines; or because the UK overplays the re-opening gamble and loses when a vaccine resistant strain hammers the country once again.

And the market might see Brexit in the rear-view mirror, but if so, that's a big mistake, as the full effects of Brexit haven't been felt yet, having been largely masked/deferred by Covid.

So all-in-all, a heck of a lot of speculation on the back of wishful thinking; very little sound economic logic.

Leroy42

I think part of it is that the market see that the UK are basically going to try to continue to get their cake. They are pushing the EU to see how they will react and the bets, certainly from the UK side, is that the EU won't have the stomach for an actual trade war and a compromise will once again be found.

So they will have freedom to set lower standards whilst still having access.

ujjjjjjjjj

CelticRambler wrote: »

Any UK vaccine-related boost will be short lived as the UK loses its advantage compared to the rest of Europe/the world, either because those other countries administer more and/or better vaccines; or because the UK overplays the re-opening gamble and loses when a vaccine resistant strain hammers the country once again.

And the market might see Brexit in the rear-view mirror, but if so, that's a big mistake, as the full effects of Brexit haven't been felt yet, having been largely masked/deferred by Covid.

So all-in-all, a heck of a lot of speculation on the back of wishful thinking; very little sound economic logic.

It's is just the market.....wouldn't get too worried about it being logical.

For what it's worth I think the UK will do quite well out of the vaccine head start economically and the Brexit issues are over stated and companies in the UK are getting their heads around the new paperwork etc. Will smooth out in time.

But hey ho it's more fun bashing so they are fooked and it's a total disaster and the worlds fifth largest economy will be in the toilet by the weekend.

Professor Moriarty

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

It's is just the market.....wouldn't get too worried about it being logical.

For what it's worth I think the UK will do quite well out of the vaccine head start economically and the Brexit issues are over stated and companies in the UK are getting their heads around the new paperwork etc. Will smooth out in time.

But hey ho it's more fun bashing so they are fooked and it's a total disaster and the worlds fifth largest economy will be in the toilet by the weekend.

UK exports to its largest export market fell by 40% in January.

54and56

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It was shown on Sky One and BBC in the 2000s though as the sensitivity about the issue had long since died down. I somehow don't think there was much risk of all the peace-loving, diplomatic, Picard-focused Trekkies joining the 'RA somehow. It just shows how extreme things were in the early 90s on this island though.

It worries me that there seems to be such a short memory in present-day British politics about how fragile that situation is and how much effort was put in through the 1990s to get the peace process to work and the Good Friday Agreement to happen.

It's remarkable that even though the UK is a signatory to it, the process seems better understood on the continent and in the USA.

I think the Tories seem to see the GFA and also devolution as a product of Blair era Labour and something to be 'undone'. The world seems to revolve around their "blue vs red" arguments. It's a terrible shame that it was ever allowed to be rolled into Brexit and it just shows the total lack of statesmanship in the UK at present. I mean, you could have fully trusted the Tories to protect the NI peace process, even under Cameron and even Theresa May did mental and political gymnastics to protect it. She took it seriously, even if she got herself into all sorts of contortions with the DUP.

However, now it's just all up in the air, anything goes and it looks like the stability of Northern Ireland is just another plaything.

From a perspective of anyone outside their bubble: Imagine for a moment, playing with the stability of a region that has been utterly vexed with a very recent conflict that lasted for decades and that was painstakingly resolved through years and years of careful diplomacy, and then for a large, supposedly sensible country to use it as a political football, knowing full well how unstable it could potentially still be and how much damage that could do.

It's an absolute disgrace and I think it needs to be called out a lot more directly. It's like they're living in a parallel universe where everything's just an abstract concept to be written into a tabloid headline.

The Tories, particularly their current leadership, don't like the GFA but are forced to accept it through gritted teeth.

Check out the 58 page pamphlet Michael Gove wrote castigating the agreement as a akin to the appeasement of the Nazis.

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/michael-gove-good-friday-agreement-peace-process-northern-ireland-235438

Without strong bi-partisan support in the US for the GFA the Tories would quite happily water it down in pursuit of their great isolationist Brexit project.

ujjjjjjjjj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

UK exports to its largest export market fell by 40% in January.

Speculation that is largely due to massive stock piling in the previous month and initial paperwork and procedure problems which will smooth out.

Time will tell as the next few months figures pop out.

Look bottom line is I personally hope the UK booms as it can only be good for Ireland but I understand there is a pack of hyenas in Ireland who just want it all to come crashing down in a giant steaming pile of sh*te despite it being a bad thing economically for Ireland.

Professor Moriarty

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Speculation that is largely due to massive stock piling in the previous month and initial paperwork and procedure problems which will smooth out.

Time will tell as the next few months figures pop out.

Look bottom line is I personally hope the UK booms as it can only be good for Ireland but I understand there is a pack of hyenas in Ireland who just want it all to come crashing down in a giant steaming pile of sh*te despite it being a bad thing economically for Ireland.

The problem with the UK booming after Brexit is that it may well lead to the disintegration of the EU as other populists in major countries point to the UK's success. Disintegration of the EU is not in Ireland's interest.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

UK exports to its largest export market fell by 40% in January.

Don't forget that much of that was due to stockpiling in the previous months as many were aware of the new difficulties.

ujjjjjjjjj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The problem with the UK booming after Brexit is that it may well lead to the disintegration of the EU as other populists in major countries point to the UK's success. Disintegration of the EU is not in Ireland's interest.

That is a moot point.....and another can of worms which I could spend all night debating with you......Have a read of Ashoka Mody's Book 'Euro Tragedy' and it might open up some interesting perspectives for you but let's not digress too much.

Well if I was offered two options and only from the point of view of what is better for Ireland:

A) UK turns into a sh*t show and collapses economically post Brexit.
Booms and in the next decade shows good economic growth.

I pick B every time and twice on a Sunday.

ujjjjjjjjj

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't forget that much of that was due to stockpiling in the previous months as many were aware of the new difficulties.

Time will tell, like anything one month isn't exactly a yardstick.

We will know more about a year after Covid is over and dusted. With Covid muddying the waters I think we may have to wait until 2022 to get a decent idea of where the UK's trade situation actually lies.

Leonard Hofstadter

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

That is a moot point.....and another can of worms which I could spend all night debating with you......Have a read of Ashoka Mody's Book 'Euro Tragedy' and it might open up some interesting perspectives for you but let's not digress too much.

Well if I was offered two options and only from the point of view of what is better for Ireland:

A) UK turns into a sh*t show and collapses economically post Brexit.
Booms and in the next decade shows good economic growth.

I pick B every time and twice on a Sunday.

A is clearly better for us, with UK exports representing about 6% of our overall exports. The % share of EU exports as a ratio of the % share of UK exports has gone up dramatically since the referendum five years ago.

Note that I don't want the UK to fail, it's clearly an important trading partner and I have family as well as English friends over there so I have no desire to see them suffer (especially when none of them voted for the crapshow that is Brexit) but given the choice the success of the EU will always win out for me - especially given the solidarity they've shown us on the border. I hope as a nation we won't forget this when one of our European friends wants our support on something be it against the UK, or some other third country.

ujjjjjjjjj

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

A is clearly better for us, with UK exports representing about 6% of our overall exports. The % share of EU exports as a ratio of the % share of UK exports has gone up dramatically since the referendum five years ago.

Note that I don't want the UK to fail, it's clearly an important trading partner and I have family as well as English friends over there so I have no desire to see them suffer (especially when none of them voted for the crapshow that is Brexit) but given the choice the success of the EU will always win out for me - especially given the solidarity they've shown us on the border. I hope as a nation we won't forget this when one of our European friends wants our support on something be it against the UK, or some other third country.

Sorry I just don't understand your logic here.

The UK doing well post Brexit doesn't mean the EU does badly.

If the EU Does well economically in the next 10 years and the UK post Brexit does well too it's a win win for Ireland especially considering the North.

If the UK does badly it isn't good for Ireland and if the EU struggles as a trading zone it isn't good either.

Considering it's a market of 60 million plus English speakers on our doorstep them doing well can't do us any harm.

Last figures I saw were 11% of our goods exports were to the UK and 6% of services.

Professor Moriarty

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

That is a moot point.....and another can of worms which I could spend all night debating with you......Have a read of Ashoka Mody's Book 'Euro Tragedy' and it might open up some interesting perspectives for you but let's not digress too much.

Well if I was offered two options and only from the point of view of what is better for Ireland:

A) UK turns into a sh*t show and collapses economically post Brexit.
Booms and in the next decade shows good economic growth.

I pick B every time and twice on a Sunday.

It is most certainly not a moot point. Nor is it as simple and binary as you suggest. It is an existential matter for the EU as an institution. It is very much in their interests, and consequently Ireland's interests, that Britain does not prosper as a result of Brexit. That's very different from total economic collapse.

ujjjjjjjjj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is most certainly not a moot point. Nor is it as simple and binary as you suggest. It is an existential matter for the EU as an institution. It is very much in their interests, and consequently Ireland's interests, that Britain does not prosper as a result of Brexit. That's very different from total economic collapse.

Can't agree with you there - bar keeping the Eurocrats in some building in Brussels happy and keeping the laughing hyenas in Ireland giggling away, Britain struggling post Brexit does nothing for Ireland other than depress the North, reduce a market for us and also remove employment and emigration options for Irish people.

Professor Moriarty

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Can't agree with you there - bar keeping the Eurocrats in some building in Brussels happy and keeping the laughing hyenas in Ireland giggling away, Britain struggling post Brexit does nothing for Ireland other than depress the North, reduce a market for us and also remove employment and emigration options for Irish people.

The EU crumbling would be awful for Ireland. Much worse than than having the UK limp along for a while as a warning to others.

View

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is most certainly not a moot point. Nor is it as simple and binary as you suggest. It is an existential matter for the EU as an institution. It is very much in their interests, and consequently Ireland's interests, that Britain does not prosper as a result of Brexit. That's very different from total economic collapse.

It most definitely isn’t an existential matter for the EU whether the U.K. prospers or not, just as it isn’t whether Norway, Switzerland or Ukraine does.

Decisions in the EU are made by its members based on what is in their interests, not based on the (supposed) successes or failures of non-members.

murphaph

Not sure if already posted today:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_1132

Professor Moriarty

View wrote: »

It most definitely isn’t an existential matter for the EU whether the U.K. prospers or not, just as it isn’t whether Norway, Switzerland or Ukraine does.

Decisions in the EU are made by its members based on what is in their interests, not based on the (supposed) successes or failures of non-members.

None of those countries were members of the EU. If the UK, a significant member of the EU and the first member of the EU to leave, is seen to prosper outside the EU, this will encourage populist nationalists such as Le Pen and Salvini to push for exit. It's how Johnson got elected - an anti-EU stance. They will happily copy his playbook to get elected.