Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Britain is now about to set out their future international strategy, and it does not include the EU.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56410532
The government is pledging to reshape an "outdated international system" to better protect the UK's interests and values, in a year-long review of post-Brexit foreign and defence policy.


New alliances should be formed as the UK shifts focus towards Indo-Pacific countries such as India, Japan and Australia, it says.

Seems crazy to concentrate on dealing with countries on the opposite side of the planet!

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

Britain is now about to set out their future international strategy, and it does not include the EU.







Seems crazy to concentrate on dealing with countries on the opposite side of the planet!

It's impossible to not sound flippant but spiritually Britain has left this planet.

Nostalgia is a hell of an hallucinogenic.

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems crazy to concentrate on dealing with countries on the opposite side of the planet!

Well it's well known Japan, Australia etc. are emerging markets with potential big growth ahead of them compared to EU due to a young population etc. :pac:

Seriously though I can see some reasoning behind it from a "London does services" perspective but it's a Thatcher pick axe to any manufacturing. The problem with that is of course that a) London will dominate their economy (and hence policies) even more than now and b) London's service industry is not exactly work intensive (i.e. few employees by comparison to manufacturing) and very much specialized (i.e. limited number of people to recruit locally and will require more immigration of specialists). This does not bode well for the "red wall" areas and young people in general; either you go through the right universities and courses or you will be forced into a low income job (if they can get a job at all). This will drive further segregation between them (London service workers and the support sphere) vs. us (rest of the UK) and take UK further down the road ala USA (with all the fun benefits that come with that ala QAnon etc. and Trump style politicians etc.)

54and56

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems crazy to concentrate on dealing with countries on the opposite side of the planet!

What choice do you have when you've lost the respect of your European neighbours and actual world powers like the US, China, Russia etc no longer take you seriously or fear you in the slightest e.g. China and Iran completely ignoring UK demands for (ironically) the Hong Kong treaty to not be unilaterally changed / re-interpreted by China or for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to be released etc?

The rump of UK Empire nostalgists are currently running the Tory party so playing to role of big dog to emerging Indo-Pacific countries appeals to their sense of self importance. It'll be a great way to spunk even more tax payer money which will achieve the square root of SFA. India will play along as they have nothing to lose and it'll look good domestically for the old colonialists to be treating them so seriously. Australia will benefit from having a Western ally to play war games with and there's no downside to Japan to have another friend to play with but the US will continue to be their main security partner.

The UK are acting like a child who can't get anyone else in the secondary school playground to play the game they want to play so they are taking their toys and
heading back to the national school playground where the younger children will be temporarily impressed that one of the "big" boys from the secondary school wants to play with them that is until they realise the big boy playing with them is smallest of the big boys and is only playing with them because the actual big boys can't be arsed listening to their whining and are delighted to see him take his toys and go play with the kids.

ujjjjjjjjj

McGiver wrote: »

Yeah sure and YTY UK GDP January 2020 vs January 2021 is -9.2% (vs -7.8 predicted). That's the worst drop in GDP since before the WW2.

Surely it's nothing to do with Brexit, it's Covid and stockpiling.

Try harder.

Don't have to try harder, in time over the next few months and years we will see.

Trying to analyse figures right now and draw massive conclusions is just brain dead bearing in mind Covid etc.

CelticRambler

It would appear that the "outdated international system" (wha' ???) they don't like will be replaced with a 'Mercia-lite gung-ho military system, complete with a "situation room", additional "deterrent" nuclear weaponry and a shiny new battleship steaming off into furthest reaches of the Empire.

I'm sure the underpaid nurses, minimum wage cleaners and miscellaneous dole-collectors in Austerity England will be greatly reassured by this show of strength. Much better for morale than anything those poncey bureaucrats in Brussels ever did for them. :rolleyes:

View

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Don't have to try harder, in time over the next few months and years we will see.

Trying to analyse figures right now and draw massive conclusions is just brain dead bearing in mind Covid etc.

When your exports to non-EU countries marginally increase and those to EU ones drop off a cliff, Covid clearly isn’t an important factor in explaining the discrepancy - unless, that is, Brexit somehow cured Covid in all countries except EU ones. :-)

CelticRambler

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Don't have to try harder, in time over the next few months and years we will see.

Trying to analyse figures right now and draw massive conclusions is just brain dead bearing in mind Covid etc.

... and in an earlier post, you asked if we should trust voters to make sensible decisions with far-reaching consequences? :pac:

In the last 24 hours, in more than a dozen posts, you have offered nothing other than a Brexit-worthy belief that all will be well because you hope it will be well, and because you believe that out-of-date statistics prove that it couldn't not go well.

If you truly care about Ireland's future economic health, do you not think it's worth your while to get your head around the current figures, and the forecasts, and the actual barriers now facing those who trade with the UK - real, long-term barriers?

ujjjjjjjjj

CelticRambler wrote: »

Really? :rolleyes: Brexit was won on the back of "Europe" problems that didn't exist, and domestic problems that had nothing to do with the EU, and which the British government chose not to fix. Brexit happened because the UK's political system is dysfunctional and easily manipulated.

Blaming the EU for not listening to calls for vague and ill-defined reforms from a country that can't stick to a set of rules it agreed only a few weeks previously is real cloud-cuckoo stuff.

And the cherry on the cake is that the Tory party has recreated in London all the worst aspects of the EU that it supposedly wanted reformed.

Not a case of blaming the EU for Brexit or blaming anyone, politics is never a simple case of one side being 100% to blame for anything. Never has been.

Camerons attempt to nudge the EU a certain direction (in essence and in simplistic terms slowing centralisation and giving more opt outs for nations) didn't work (whether it was a wise idea or not) and if you read Camerons book and much othr work written it was a point which tipped the scales towards Brexit.

Was the UK right to slow centralisation of EU powers ? Up to you to make that decision.

Worth reading up on Camerons letter to Tusk in 2015, some interesting stuff there.

In essence what I am saying is as the EU increasingly moves away from a free trade area to a more centralised quasi federal government (and I am not saying this negatively, just a matter of fact as the EU does more stuff together and less as individual nation states) it opens the door to nationalism and extreme groups gaining more traction. Forget thr UK and look across Europe and right wing groups in particular are much stronger now than they were 20 years ago.

Is this the fault of the EU or is there a blame game, that is up to you but there are clearly defined links.

The wise in the EU will see Brexit as a warning shot of potential further problems and pi**ing all over the UK is only going to add fuel to the fire for Nationalist and anti EU groups across Europe.

ujjjjjjjjj

CelticRambler wrote: »

... and in an earlier post, you asked if we should trust voters to make sensible decisions with far-reaching consequences? :pac:

In the last 24 hours, in more than a dozen posts, you have offered nothing other than a Brexit-worthy belief that all will be well because you hope it will be well, and because you believe that out-of-date statistics prove that it couldn't not go well.

If you truly care about Ireland's future economic health, do you not think it's worth your while to get your head around the current figures, and the forecasts, and the actual barriers now facing those who trade with the UK - real, long-term barriers?

No just asking for a pause on the endless Brexit bashing on this thread, the type of stuff being posted about the UK being a spoilt child etc etc, zillion posts on here about it.

Brexit isn't good for Ireland, EU membership is clearly something Ireland wants but Brexit is now done and it is a time for reconciliation to benefit all.

Yes the UK needs to settle down and play its part here but there is a role for Ireland and the EU too.

In the next decade we follow one of two paths.

I) Accept Brexit and do all we can to smooth the processes and barriers to trade and be a calming influence in Europe re Brexit.

II) Leave em stew, cut em off and escalate problems.

Second choice is good fun and we can all have a good laugh at it but I just don't see where it gets us due to trade, social and political links with the UK and yes the North.

I hope it all settles down and Ireland the EU and the UK prosper.

If you want I can leave the thread and leave you to it but sometimes it helps to take another view and ask long term what is best for Ireland. Ireland is in a unique place to be a bridge and it can only benefit everyone of us.

CelticRambler

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

In the next decade we follow one of two paths.

I) Accept Brexit and do all we can to smooth the processes and barriers to trade and be a calming influence in Europe re Brexit.

II) Leave em stew, cut em off and escalate problems.

Option 1: how can we - a small island nation on the periphery of Europe - do anything to "smooth the processes and barriers to trade" that our nearest neighbour is has decided for itself to put in place? This neighbour is a wannabee superpower, just about to declare itself back in the game of nuclear proliferation and increasing its military presence on the far side of the world.

This is where your attitude of hopeful appeasement, in the hope - just hope, not backed up by facts or figures - in the hope that Ireland might pick up a few crumbs from its former colonial master is so out of step with modern Europe.

Brexit deserves to be bashed, because there is no evidence that it has any benefits - not even for the UK - and although you may choose to look the other way, Brexit is not done, and won't be "done" for a very long time yet.

Pablo Escobar

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

The wise in the EU will see Brexit as a warning shot of potential further problems and pi**ing all over the UK is only going to add fuel to the fire for Nationalist and anti EU groups across Europe.

I think the example the UK is setting is the perfect antidote to anti-EU groups and nationalism. To partly use your phrase, 'the wise' aren't going to look to the UK as a reason to exit.

And the EU is not p*ssing all over the UK. The EU isn't implementing anything that the UK hasn't already agreed to. The UK even helped set the rules.

Seth Brundle

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

The wise in the EU will see Brexit as a warning shot of potential further problems and pi**ing all over the UK is only going to add fuel to the fire for Nationalist and anti EU groups across Europe.

In what way is the EU "pi**ing all over the UK"?

What has the UK been forced to do that they did not agree to?

Professor Moriarty

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

No just asking for a pause on the endless Brexit bashing on this thread, the type of stuff being posted about the UK being a spoilt child etc etc, zillion posts on here about it.

Brexit isn't good for Ireland, EU membership is clearly something Ireland wants but Brexit is now done and it is a time for reconciliation to benefit all.

Yes the UK needs to settle down and play its part here but there is a role for Ireland and the EU too.

In the next decade we follow one of two paths.

I) Accept Brexit and do all we can to smooth the processes and barriers to trade and be a calming influence in Europe re Brexit.

II) Leave em stew, cut em off and escalate problems.

Second choice is good fun and we can all have a good laugh at it but I just don't see where it gets us due to trade, social and political links with the UK and yes the North.

I hope it all settles down and Ireland the EU and the UK prosper.

If you want I can leave the thread and leave you to it but sometimes it helps to take another view and ask long term what is best for Ireland. Ireland is in a unique place to be a bridge and it can only benefit everyone of us.

With respect, yet again you offer two simplistic binary scenarios. We can maintain the integrity of the EU, its laws, regulations and borders while continuing to trade in a friendly manner with the UK. If that sees the UK's economy take a hit then that has nothing to do with Ireland/EU. How big or small that hit is out of Ireland/EU's control.

serfboard

54and56 wrote: »

India will play along as they have nothing to lose and it'll look good domestically for the old colonialists to be treating them so seriously.

Don't forget that India has already said that the price of any deal to be done with them, is more visas for Indians to the UK.

No doubt the British public will be delighted to see more brown Hindu & Muslim Asians on their streets, since, according to the tabloids, it was white Christian Europeans that they had a problem with ...

murphaph

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

I think the example the UK is setting is the perfect antidote to anti-EU groups and nationalism. To partly use your phrase, 'the wise' aren't going to look to the UK as a reason to exit.

The AfD's losses in the State elections in Germany over the weekend would tend to support this view. Vigilance is still required but right wing populists have been found out in most places they've gained real power.

fly_agaric

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

No just asking for a pause on the endless Brexit bashing on this thread, the type of stuff being posted about the UK being a spoilt child etc etc, zillion posts on here about it.

Brexit isn't good for Ireland, EU membership is clearly something Ireland wants but Brexit is now done and it is a time for reconciliation to benefit all.

Yes the UK needs to settle down and play its part here but there is a role for Ireland and the EU too.

In the next decade we follow one of two paths.

I) Accept Brexit and do all we can to smooth the processes and barriers to trade and be a calming influence in Europe re Brexit.

II) Leave em stew, cut em off and escalate problems.

Second choice is good fun and we can all have a good laugh at it but I just don't see where it gets us due to trade, social and political links with the UK and yes the North.

I hope it all settles down and Ireland the EU and the UK prosper.

If you want I can leave the thread and leave you to it but sometimes it helps to take another view and ask long term what is best for Ireland. Ireland is in a unique place to be a bridge and it can only benefit everyone of us.

A fairly rational post and agree with much of it but unfortunately there's no one there running the UK right now who appears very interested in reconciliation + working together any more (unless it is entirely on their terms).

The evidence given by their recent actions around NI protocol is the opposite.
Seems like they might make things as awkward as they can for Ireland (to inflict damage on the EU) + force some tough choices.

This is the policy of the UK PM and his ministers we are talking about - not some Irish randomers on a website firing jibes at the UK or laughing at the self-harming going on in pursuit of Brexit.

You can't reconcile with the people who are deliberately trying to harm you really until they stop doing that.

Well you could I suppose, but nobody (or no country) wants to be Christ on the Cross suffering on behalf of or for others (the Brexiters/UK gov in this analogy). It is more sensible to be wary, and to protect yourself when necessary.

yagan

It is tiresome to hear posters here say that the lack of upsides to Brexit is Brexit bashing.

I'm sure a Brexiter living in England could point out what they felt were Brexit benefits, but not being convinced by their argument and holding differing outlook is not Brexit bashing.

Kermit.de.frog

A peculiar circle of protocol logic going on here

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1371838024594681865

So Northern Ireland is one of the poorest parts of the UK but it's advantage is deteriorating.

Anyone?

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A peculiar circle of Brexit logic going on here

https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1371838024594681865

So Northern Ireland is one of the poorest parts of the UK but it's advantage is deteriorating.

Anyone?

It's Sammy. Unicorns, Leprechauns, Pixies, Sammy.

View

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Not a case of blaming the EU for Brexit or blaming anyone, politics is never a simple case of one side being 100% to blame for anything. Never has been.

Camerons attempt to nudge the EU a certain direction (in essence and in simplistic terms slowing centralisation and giving more opt outs for nations) didn't work (whether it was a wise idea or not) and if you read Camerons book and much othr work written it was a point which tipped the scales towards Brexit.

Was the UK right to slow centralisation of EU powers ? Up to you to make that decision.

Worth reading up on Camerons letter to Tusk in 2015, some interesting stuff there.

In essence what I am saying is as the EU increasingly moves away from a free trade area to a more centralised quasi federal government (and I am not saying this negatively, just a matter of fact as the EU does more stuff together and less as individual nation states) it opens the door to nationalism and extreme groups gaining more traction. Forget thr UK and look across Europe and right wing groups in particular are much stronger now than they were 20 years ago.

Is this the fault of the EU or is there a blame game, that is up to you but there are clearly defined links.

The wise in the EU will see Brexit as a warning shot of potential further problems and pi**ing all over the UK is only going to add fuel to the fire for Nationalist and anti EU groups across Europe.

The EU a union of sovereign nations that do things together. That is NOT remotely the same as a “more centralised quasi federal government”, so your argument is fundamentally flawed.

The defining characteristics of a federal government is that it has THE monopoly on diplomacy, passport issuance, border control, coast guard, and control of the military forces etc on behalf of the federation. There is no federation anywhere in the world where two-thirds of the states are in a defence alliance, such as NATO, while the other third of the states are (militarily) non-aligned!

ujjjjjjjjj

View wrote: »

The EU a union of sovereign nations that do things together. That is NOT remotely the same as a “more centralised quasi federal government”, so your argument is fundamentally flawed.

The defining characteristics of a federal government is that it has THE monopoly on diplomacy, passport issuance, border control, coast guard, and control of the military forces etc on behalf of the federation. There is no federation anywhere in the world where two-thirds of the states are in a defence alliance, such as NATO, while the other third of the states are (militarily) non-aligned!

Yup absolutely agree the EU as it stands isn't a federal state - but perceptions of more power moving to the centre and control of areas national governments always had (currency, standards etc etc) can give a perception of creeping federalism and this can be leveraged by nationalist groups etc etc. I don't think anyone will say that there hasn't been a move towards the EU having more power/control/influence (and of course this is by agreement) than it did say 25 years ago - simple examples being the single currency, environmental matters and many standards. So it is federal no but it's easy to portray it as a move towards federalism.

So it's something to be carefully looked at or there is always the risk of rising anti EU sentiment especially in times of economic problems.

Seth Brundle

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Yup absolutely agree the EU as it stands isn't a federal state - but perceptions of more power moving to the centre and control of areas national governments always had (currency, standards etc etc) can give a perception of creeping federalism and this can be leveraged by nationalist groups etc etc. I don't think anyone will say that there hasn't been a move towards the EU having more power/control/influence (and of course this is by agreement) than it did say 25 years ago - simple examples being the single currency, environmental matters and many standards. So it is federal no but it's easy to portray it as a move towards federalism.

So it's something to be carefully looked at or there is always the risk of rising anti EU sentiment especially in times of economic problems.

So a perception can lead to a perception?
People will always see what they want to see!

schmoo2k

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

Yup absolutely agree the EU as it stands isn't a federal state - but perceptions of more power moving to the centre and control of areas national governments always had (currency, standards etc etc) can give a perception of creeping federalism and this can be leveraged by nationalist groups etc etc. I don't think anyone will say that there hasn't been a move towards the EU having more power/control/influence (and of course this is by agreement) than it did say 25 years ago - simple examples being the single currency, environmental matters and many standards. So it is federal no but it's easy to portray it as a move towards federalism.

So it's something to be carefully looked at or there is always the risk of rising anti EU sentiment especially in times of economic problems.

Standards (on goods) I would associate with a single market
Single Currency I would associate with free movement

Other standards and green initiatives, will generally be for the greater good (which also means they will be potentially unpopular) - which is good for local politicians as they don't have to be the "bad person" who introduces them.

What seems to have happened in the UK is that there has been a misrepresentation on these standards as a whole and portrayed in a way to make people deliberately angry about a few select ones.

Seth Brundle

The UK government chipping away at basic standards but to be honest is anyone surprised that this would happen?

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1371864234305466369?s=19

Jizique

serfboard wrote: »

Don't forget that India has already said that the price of any deal to be done with them, is more visas for Indians to the UK.

No doubt the British public will be delighted to see more brown Hindu & Muslim Asians on their streets, since, according to the tabloids, it was white Christian Europeans that they had a problem with ...

Was reading an interesting piece on the Russians and Belorussians they are planning to fly in to pick their fruit - the brits giving out about labour camps in China is a joke when you see their conditions, having to pay for accommodation etc and as no free movement, they can’t leave

54and56

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

In the next decade we follow one of two paths.

I) Accept Brexit and do all we can to smooth the processes and barriers to trade and be a calming influence in Europe re Brexit.

II) Leave em stew, cut em off and escalate problems.

The spoilt child analagy is mine and isn't intended as mindless Brexit bashing. In my opinion it accurately describes how the UK are actually behaving.

I also think option 1 would be great but without genuine trusted engagement by the UK any efforts Ireland would undertake to smooth things over would just be appeasement and the problem with appeasement is that it actually rewards and encourages the party being appeased to undertake more objectionable behaviour not less.

In my view as long as the UK continues to act in bad faith in breach of the GFA, WA and/or TCA their behaviour needs to be called out for what it is (I chose to describe it using a spoilt child analagy) and firmly challenged using all legal and soft power options available to Ireland and the EU/USA (the latter as guarantors of the GFA) until such behaviour stops (might require a new UK government) and they start to earn back the trust they've lost through being good trustworthy and honourable neighbours rather than the delinquent bad actors they currently are.

Leroy42

ujjjjjjjjj, what do you think would actually satisfy the UK?

IMO nothing short of full benefits of EU membership without any of the responsibilities will ever be enough.

Both Gove and Frost have stated they want and end to the EU itself. Replacing it, one assumes, with a global order where the UK retake their place at the head of globe.

When one is dealing with that level of thinking there really is nothing the EU can reasonably do to satisfy the UK

HalfAndHalf

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The UK government chipping away at basic standards but to be honest is anyone surprised that this would happen?

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1371864234305466369?s=19

Like the EU and China you mean.......or does that not count?

HalfAndHalf

Leroy42 wrote: »

ujjjjjjjjj, what do you think would actually satisfy the UK?

IMO nothing short of full benefits of EU membership without any of the responsibilities will ever be enough.

Both Gove and Frost have stated they want and end to the EU itself. Replacing it, one assumes, with a global order where the UK retake their place at the head of globe.

When one is dealing with that level of thinking there really is nothing the EU can reasonably do to satisfy the UK

Now what is it they say about assumptions again?