Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

schmoo2k wrote: »

In which case it is a bit unfair to say (or allude that) the UK is banning exports as (to be fair) they were very quick to get contracts with many potential vaccine providers (they have ordered more than 350 million doses at a premium price point?), even before we knew which ones would be successful or not?

We don't slam the Israelis for their "testing" contract with Pfizzers.

Depends. If you think "vaccine nationalism" is a bad thing, then you can criticise the UK, because they have been practising vaccine nationalism in a way that the EU has not. On the other hand, if you think vaccine nationalism is fine, then you won't criticise the UK (but you might criticise EU for failing its citizens by not practising vaccine nationalism).

That's an oversimplification, obviously. Governments do have particular duties to their citizens which are greater than their duties to the world at large; you can't see that as an entirely negative thing. Equally obviously, if everybody practices vaccine nationalism, we all suffer; it's a variation on the arms race problem.

But one thing we can say is this: the UK's undoubted success in rolling out vaccination for its citizens is owed not only to the UK government's early and comprehensive contracts, but also to the fact that they can source signficant supplies from countries that are not so aggressive in cornering the market. If every country in Europe had pursued the same policy as the UK did, the UK's vaccination programme would have been much less successful - not just relatively, but absolutely. They simply wouldn't have the vaccine supplies that they have now.

dogbert27

Peregrinus wrote: »

What AZ has actually said is "Our UK domestic supply chain is not experiencing any disruption and there is no impact on our delivery schedule".

The thing is, AZ's UK domestic supply chain is not sufficient to deliver the requirements of the UK's vaccination programme; the programme is reliant on a combination of domestic product and imports. And there are problems in AZ's production outside the UK - reportedly, in India - which will impact its delivery of vaccines to the UK.

But this just proves how disingenuous AZ are. As a company they do have production issues and if these production issues are now affecting the UK then the UK's success of a roll out had nothing to do with Brexit.

Peregrinus

dogbert27 wrote: »

But this just proves how disingenuous AZ are. As a company they do have production issues and if these production issues are now affecting the UK then the UK's success of a roll out had nothing to do with Brexit.

The UK's success of a rollout has had nothing to do with Brexit.

But it seems a bit harsh to criticize AZ over this; they've never claimed it had anything to do with Brexit and, presumably, don't care either way. They are perhaps being a teeny bit disingenous in pointing to their sound UK supply chain while not saying anything about less sound supply chains elsewhere but, hey, commercial companies always point to their successes and keep quiet about their failures.

If AZ are to be criticised, it's for over-promising. They have an awful lot of disappointed customers, because they led them to expect supplies that, in the event, AZ hasn't been able to deliver. I get that things happen in the rollout of new pharmaceuticals that have to be tested, unforseen developments, yadda, yadda, yadda, but AZ should have factored all that in when projecting likely supplies, and should have been a lot more explicit about the uncertainty of their projections and the margins for variation. But I dare say they have already realised this.

schmoo2k

Peregrinus wrote: »

Depends. If you think "vaccine nationalism" is a bad thing, then you can criticise the UK, because they have been practising vaccine nationalism in a way that the EU has not. On the other hand, if you think vaccine nationalism is fine, then you won't criticise the UK (but you might criticise EU for failing its citizens by not practising vaccine nationalism).

That's an oversimplification, obviously. Governments do have particular duties to their citizens which are greater than their duties to the world at large; you can't see that as an entirely negative thing. Equally obviously, if everybody practices vaccine nationalism, we all suffer; it's a variation on the arms race problem.

But one thing we can say is this: the UK's undoubted success in rolling out vaccination for its citizens is owed not only to the UK government's early and comprehensive contracts, but also to the fact that they can source signficant supplies from countries that are not so aggressive in cornering the market. If every country in Europe had pursued the same policy as the UK did, the UK's vaccination programme would have been much less successful - not just relatively, but absolutely. They simply wouldn't have the vaccine supplies that they have now.

...and Ireland would have less than they have now (possibly). IMO the EU could have moved quicker and placed orders with more companies, but I suspect the current rollout will be ok as we come into the summer months, next October will tell the real story on how well the vaccine has gone (if last years pattern is anything to go by).

If you ignore the UK and US the EU are doing "ok".

But again to be fair, the UK were one of the worst hit by Covid and acted swiftly, if the AZ vaccine had not materialized they would still have been in pretty good shape relative to the EU and USA.

(Preemptive remark: We all know why the UK was badly hit by Covid).

Peregrinus

schmoo2k wrote: »

...and Ireland would have less than they have now (possibly). IMO the EU could have moved quicker and placed orders with more companies, but I suspect the current rollout will be ok as we come into the summer months, next October will tell the real story on how well the vaccine has gone (if last years pattern is anything to go by).

If you ignore the UK and US the EU are doing "ok".

But again to be fair, the UK were one of the worst hit by Covid and acted swiftly, if the AZ vaccine had not materialized they would still have been in pretty good shape relative to the EU and USA.

(Preemptive remark: We all know why the UK was badly hit by Covid).

Yeah. One of the reasons the UK has been successful is that they have thrown money at vaccination. They invested heavily in four different vaccine programmes; as it happens, all four have produced effective, approved vaccines, but it could easily have been different. As this strategy has played out for the UK, they have been able to start early and run a very rapid programme, with the downside that the unit cost of each vaccinatin is very high (but nobody minds about that). But as it might very easily have played out, only (say) two of the four vaccines might have come to market; the UK programme might be much slower; and the unit cost would have been even higher.

Other relevant factors:

Because the UK has a comprehensive and high-quality health service, they can roll out a vaccination programme very quickly. Other countries, even blessed with a similar supply of vaccines, might not be so well-positioned to deliver them so quickly on such a scale.

And, as you point out, because the UK has has such a torrid time so far, getting a vaccination programme going as fast as possible, even at horrendous price, wasn't a difficult decision. Here in Australia vaccination has hardly begun, and it will be well into next year before the rollout is complete, but as we've had a total of 29,000 Covid cases as against the UK's 4.3 million, the urgency is not the same.

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yeah. One of the reasons the UK has been successful is that they have thrown money at vaccination.

And once again, it's worth pointing out another reason the UK has been "successful" is that they've also thrown out the rule book. As of this week, there are now more than 2.25m people fully vaccinated in France, versus 1.75m in the UK.

Brexit or no Brexit, the Covid horse the UK gambled on is still running, and there's a lot of ground yet to cover before the finish line.

Hurrache

He was made a mockery of, which he's regularly on the receiving end, because of those comments by political commentators in the UK and throughout Europe, with many pointing out that when questioned he admitted to have never even read the GFA.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/17/dominic-raab-accuses-eu-of-trying-to-erect-irish-sea-border

I mean why are the media not asking obvious question which arise, did Raab actually read the document his boss Boris signed?

No democratic checks and balances on these guys, as there are none in UK. And also compliant media who let them get away with stupidity time and time again and murder when it comes to Covid death toll

Because the media is pro-Brexit. It wants this as much as the Brexiter ideologues do. What else are they going to do? Hold the government to account and foment a Labour victory in 2024?

There are checks and balances but many of these are conventional and therefore not legally enforceable. This was fine when everyone was playing by the rules but now that these conventions have been eroded then the system of checks is dramatically weakened. There are also the courts and the House of Lords but these alone are insufficient.

Junkyard Tom

To think, the London Olympics was only in 2012, the British 'brand' was fairly strong then, and now, in less than a decade, it's in tatters.

An Ciarraioch

In January last year, the UK had a trade surplus with us of approximately €400m, which this year has been transformed into a deficit of the same amount:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjanuary2021/

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In January last year, the UK had a trade surplus with us of approximately €400m, which this year has been transformed into a deficit of the same amount:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjanuary2021/

Interesting to see that Ireland's trade with China - on both the import and export sides of the balance sheet - is now almost exactly the same as with GB.

Brussels Sprout

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

To think, the London Olympics was only in 2012, the British 'brand' was fairly strong then, and now, in less than a decade, it's in tatters.

This is something I think of a lot. It's not just the UK either. In that same year the Euros were held jointly in Poland and Ukraine. Five matches, including a semi-final, were held in Donetsk in the purpose built Donbass Arena. A mere 2 years later that stadium was literally shelled as part of the war between Ukraine and Russian backed separatists. To this day that region is still closed off to the rest of the Ukraine, so much so, that the local football team, Shaktar Donetsk, plays their home games in Kiev.

A stable democracy is like a bridge. It's integrity cannot be taken for granted just because it has stood the test of time. It needs regular maintenance, otherwise it's natural state is to fall into disrepair and ultimately, complete failure.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Unless it pertains directly to Brexit, please use the Coronavirus forum to discuss vaccines and their names. Thanks.

wexfordman2

Martin doffing the cap again, Boris has even managed to recruit him:-



https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1412803/Boris-Johnson-news-vaccine-blockade-European-Union-allies-BBC-Andrew-Marr-Brussels-vn





"BORIS JOHNSON has recruited "key allies" inside the EU as Britain pushes back against Brussels' plan to block vaccine exports to the UK"

"But, Boris Johnson does seem to have done a good job in recruiting allies in Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland - all of whom are much more reluctant to engage in this trade war."

Seth Brundle

As it is the express, you can be fairly sure that the truth has been quite embellished!

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As it is the express, you can be fairly sure that the truth has been quite embellished!

I doubt the Express would have embellished the truth. They have nothing to do with truth - their stock in trade is found in the fiction department.

Leroy42

Of course the likes of Ireland and Netherlands want closer links to the UK.

They are not siding with them, they are trying to work Johnson to see sense.

There will have to be an agreement on SPS, and the UK need to work out a way to sell it as a win for them.

Making it look like Ireland etc 'forced' the EU to offer it, despite it having always been on the table, is just the start of that process.

wexfordman2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As it is the express, you can be fairly sure that the truth has been quite embellished!

As it's Michael Martin, and we have heard his utterrings, then, sadly there is truth to it.

He has actually spoken out against the EU's position on export bans, and if you recall just a few weeks back he told the EU to cool down the rhetoric with regards the UK.

He has been recruited, well and truly, it would seem to me.

As regards the express, even a stopped clock is right some of the time

murphaph

The Express thinks the likes of Ray Bassett are key figures. Safe to ignore, especially the headlines, which are often unrelated to the contents.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Of course the likes of Ireland and Netherlands want closer links to the UK.

They are not siding with them, they are trying to work Johnson to see sense.

There will have to be an agreement on SPS, and the UK need to work out a way to sell it as a win for them.

Making it look like Ireland etc 'forced' the EU to offer it, despite it having always been on the table, is just the start of that process.

Exactly. Geography necessitates cooperation for both sides. Denmark, the Netherlands and Ireland are the closest and friendliest nations in the EU to the UK for a reason.

The Express will try to spin this as some sort of masterful divide and conquer diplomacy but cordial relations are good for all parties.

CelticRambler

wexfordman2 wrote: »

Martin doffing the cap again, Boris has even managed to recruit him ...

Any chance you could provide actual evidence to support this claim of doffing the cap and/or recruitment, other than one Brexit-supporting British media outlet reporting the comments of a second Brexit-supporting British media outlet on a third British media outlet's broadcast?

yagan

Spain get ready to deport Brexit overstayers.
https://global247news.com/2021/03/09/spain-expects-to-deport-in-excess-of-500-brits-from-the-costa-del-sol-costa-blanca/

Special undercover units have been set up by the police who are preparing ‘special tactics’ to catch Brits who have outstayed their welcome and have not become or applied to be Spanish residents.
The Spanish police since last month have been in training on how to capture evaders after March 31st with prepared detention centres already set up to take offenders before issuing large fines and preparing deportation back to the UK.
” There will be the standard procedures of roadblocks etc, for paperwork inspection but there will also be regular inspections in bars and clubs, especially those operated by Brits, we will see raids too on suspects harbouring what essentially will be illegal British immigrants”

500 is just the starting point as estimates are in the tens of thousands for Brits living cash in hand unregistered in Spain and Portugal. British businesses there that relied on seasonal British staff are screwed.

wexfordman2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Any chance you could provide actual evidence to support this claim of doffing the cap and/or recruitment, other than one Brexit-supporting British media outlet reporting the comments of a second Brexit-supporting British media outlet on a third British media outlet's broadcast?

I wouldn't pay much heed to the DE, but like I said, even a stopped watch is right twice a day. MM has in the very recent past made 2 hugely significant statements which pit Ireland alongside the UK against the EU, this being the second.

The first was his uttering a few weeks back where he stated that the EU needed to "dial down the rhetoric " with regards the UK and brexit.

That statement in the midst of the UK clearly twice trying to break international law and agreements the EU fought hard and with a united front for irelands interest, economic and political, in addition to a fairly obvious UK intervention in the supply chain for the EU vaccine program.

I wouldn't trust MM ad far as I could spit.

Professor Moriarty

wexfordman2 wrote: »

I wouldn't pay much heed to the DE, but like I said, even a stopped watch is right twice a day. MM has in the very recent past made 2 hugely significant statements which pit Ireland alongside the UK against the EU, this being the second.

The first was his uttering a few weeks back where he stated that the EU needed to "dial down the rhetoric " with regards the UK and brexit.

That statement in the midst of the UK clearly twice trying to break international law and agreements the EU fought hard and with a united front for irelands interest, economic and political, in addition to a fairly obvious UK intervention in the supply chain for the EU vaccine program.

I wouldn't trust MM ad far as I could spit.

Who would you trust to deal with Brexit as it currently stands?

CelticRambler

wexfordman2 wrote: »

I wouldn't pay much heed to the DE, but like I said, even a stopped watch is right twice a day.

You might say that you wouldn't pay much heed to the DE, but you've gone to the trouble of posting a link to a DE article citing a DM reporter on a Sky programme as your single justification for claiming that Micheál Martin has been "recruited" by Johnson as a UK ally within and against the EU.

But other than your own distrust of him, and an on-the-record comment by him to the effect of "calm down, lads" several weeks ago, what other, factual evidence do you have to back up this claim that the UK has "allies" within the EU that might undermine the TCA and/or NIP?

wexfordman2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who would you trust to deal with Brexit as it currently stands?

Coveney and varadkar over MM any day.

Professor Moriarty

wexfordman2 wrote: »

Coveney and varadkar over MM any day.

Me too but I don't see MM as terrible. He's okay.

wexfordman2

CelticRambler wrote: »

You might say that you wouldn't pay much heed to the DE, but you've gone to the trouble of posting a link to a DE article citing a DM reporter on a Sky programme as your single justification for claiming that Micheál Martin has been "recruited" by Johnson as a UK ally within and against the EU.

But other than your own distrust of him, and an on-the-record comment by him to the effect of "calm down, lads" several weeks ago, what other, factual evidence do you have to back up this claim that the UK has "allies" within the EU that might undermine the TCA and/or NIP?

Well, apart from the two factual instances I've already given you, that would be about it. If MM wanted the EU to "calm down the rhetoric ", a word in their ear would have done it rather than loud mouthing across the media.

Any sign of disunity within the EU at this time with respect to the UK, brexit and covid vaccines is destabilising in the extreme, and the brits will seize upon it.

wexfordman2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Me too but I don't see MM as terrible. He's okay.

Yeah, but we need more than OK right now.

CelticRambler

wexfordman2 wrote: »

Any sign of disunity within the EU at this time with respect to the UK, brexit and covid vaccines is destabilising in the extreme, and the brits will seize upon it.

I think you're spending too much time reading British media. Here in continental Europe, no-one cares about Brexit any more. It's done, the Brits are "out" and there's definitely no destabilising happening. Our biggest concern with the vaccines is whether or not to use the AZ one (now restricted in France to the over 55s) and the spread of the Kent Covid variant.

wexfordman2 wrote: »

Yeah, but we need more than OK right now.

To do what?