Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

But now that the EU are considering retaining vaccine for the use of EU citizens , we have MM parroting the same line as Johnson that we need to compromise etc.

How do you know that it's not Johnson parroting MM? Johnson is an SNIP. who doesn't know what he's talking about most of the time. Only today, he's saying that Britons shouldn't go travelling to continental Europe, because continental Europe is suffering a "third wave" and the Brits might bring it home. He is obviously completely oblivious to the fact that this "third wave" is being caused by the Kent variant, the only thing Britain has successfully exported to the EU in any quantity since January.

So either he doesn't trust his government's vaccination strategy, or he doesn't trust the vaccines, or he just doesn't want anyone travelling to the EU and having to face the first hard evidence of what it means to be be third-class country citizens in Europe.

rock22

schmoo2k wrote: »

The UK hasn't refused to export any vaccines - AZ are prioritizing which products go where...

De facto, the UK government has banned export of AS vaccine because they have a clause which only allows export after the UK orders are fulfilled.

He was silent on a compromise when we were waiting for vaccine even though we were exporting vaccine to the UK. It is only when the EU attempt to rebalance the supply of vaccine that he is talking about a compromise.

Clearly MM is more concerned about continuing the supply to the UK than he is about deaths here in the EU.

schmoo2k

rock22 wrote: »

De facto, the UK government has banned export of AS vaccine because they have a clause which only allows export after the UK orders are fulfilled.

He was silent on a compromise when we were waiting for vaccine even though we were exporting vaccine to the UK. It is only when the EU attempt to rebalance the supply of vaccine that he is talking about a compromise.

Clearly MM is more concerned about continuing the supply to the UK than he is about deaths here in the EU.

Big difference between a contract with a single company and banning exports...

They may have similar contracts with other companies not even in the UK?

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

Clearly MM is more concerned about continuing the supply to the UK than he is about deaths here in the EU.

There's nothing "clearly" about it. Maybe he's more concerned about the impact on Ireland-based pharma companies if their trade with other countries, not the UK, is suspended?

Besides, there's nothing wrong - or particularly Anglophilic - about him expressing an opinion on EU policy. He is, after all, a member of the EU Council. From the little I know of him, I don't think he's a great statesman and I wouldn't vote for him - but I do happen to think he's right: tit-for-tat export bans (explicit or implicit) are not helpful in the context of a trans-national public health crisis.

Capt'n Midnight

An effect of Brexit on Wales. Forestry becoming worth more than sheep farming ? Not as bad as it might have been as there is a deal to be ratified.

Brexit could transform Wales from sheep farms to forest

Infini

ongarite wrote: »

UK trade with Ireland and EU in January down massively YOY.
Have to wait another month to see if there was a slight rebound.

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1373974501998915585

What I dont understand is how this sort of trade implosion is not yet having an effect on the UK in terms of currency etc. Their trade with the rest of Europe has essentially collapsed to a fraction of its pre~brexit levels yet sterlings gradually fallen over the last few months. Something like that should be having a serious affect on the UK but so far it hasnt. Or is is just too early to tell because of corona still having an effect?

View

schmoo2k wrote: »

Big difference between a contract with a single company and banning exports...

They may have similar contracts with other companies not even in the UK?

If a government completely ties up the supply of a product in short supply that amounts to a de facto ban on exports of that product. The difference between that and a formal ban on exports is effectively non-existent.

View

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's nothing "clearly" about it. Maybe he's more concerned about the impact on Ireland-based pharma companies if their trade with other countries, not the UK, is suspended?

Besides, there's nothing wrong - or particularly Anglophilic - about him expressing an opinion on EU policy. He is, after all, a member of the EU Council. From the little I know of him, I don't think he's a great statesman and I wouldn't vote for him - but I do happen to think he's right: tit-for-tat export bans (explicit or implicit) are not helpful in the context of a trans-national public health crisis.

Which Covid vaccines are being manufactured and exported from Ireland?

Because, if there aren’t any (as I believe), that argument excusing MM is moot, and we are just left with him being completely craven.

Gerry T

Has anyone a link to the UK-AZ contract, I've had a look at the EU one and would be interested in what the UK one says, searched everywhere and coming up blank. But from what I'm picking up there is some interesting info, but want to see if its correct.
1. The EU signed their contract with AZ 1 day before the UK did. 27th and 28th of August last yr.
2. The contract mentions the UK specifically as a supplier of vaccines to the EU.
3. The contract does say "best endeavours", but it's suggested that this is also in the UK contract and the assertion that the UK-AZ contract stipulates that the UK order must be completed first is not correct.

Not directly linked to brexit but if the EU does block vaccine deliveries to the UK then the UK will most likely stop the shipment of needed vaccine ingredients to the EU and then the EU looks to escalate and where it goes we don't want to think. But mixed with brexit tensions, legal proceedings over the NI protocol and it's a right mess.

Infini

Gerry T wrote: »

Has anyone a link to the UK-AZ contract, I've had a look at the EU one and would be interested in what the UK one says, searched everywhere and coming up blank. But from what I'm picking up there is some interesting info, but want to see if its correct.
1. The EU signed their contract with AZ 1 day before the UK did. 27th and 28th of August last yr.
2. The contract mentions the UK specifically as a supplier of vaccines to the EU.
3. The contract does say "best endeavours", but it's suggested that this is also in the UK contract and the assertion that the UK-AZ contract stipulates that the UK order must be completed first is not correct.

Not directly linked to brexit but if the EU does block vaccine deliveries to the UK then the UK will most likely stop the shipment of needed vaccine ingredients to the EU and then the EU looks to escalate and where it goes we don't want to think. But mixed with brexit tensions, legal proceedings over the NI protocol and it's a right mess.

Someone pointed it out on reddit but in truth what the UK would be holding back on could be sourced elsewhere in Europe so they wouldnt be stuck for them. That being said AZ sent vaccines made in Europe to the UK and the UK has not sent those back. They were meant to supply both Europe and the UK across all 4 manufacuring facilities as well but all of what is being made in the UK isnt being sent back to Europe like it should but yet they're getting vaccines made in Europe. This is the whole problem. If they're not willing to reciprocate then why should they be benefiting at Europes expense?

murphaph

Gerry T wrote: »

Has anyone a link to the UK-AZ contract, I've had a look at the EU one and would be interested in what the UK one says, searched everywhere and coming up blank. But from what I'm picking up there is some interesting info, but want to see if its correct.
1. The EU signed their contract with AZ 1 day before the UK did. 27th and 28th of August last yr.
2. The contract mentions the UK specifically as a supplier of vaccines to the EU.
3. The contract does say "best endeavours", but it's suggested that this is also in the UK contract and the assertion that the UK-AZ contract stipulates that the UK order must be completed first is not correct.

Not directly linked to brexit but if the EU does block vaccine deliveries to the UK then the UK will most likely stop the shipment of needed vaccine ingredients to the EU and then the EU looks to escalate and where it goes we don't want to think. But mixed with brexit tensions, legal proceedings over the NI protocol and it's a right mess.

https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/SupplierAttachment/77bb967f-0194-452a-bdae-9999aecc753d

Link from here:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/17/europe/uk-astrazeneca-vaccine-contract-details-intl/index.html

schmoo2k

Infini wrote: »

Someone pointed it out on reddit but in truth what the UK would be holding back on could be sourced elsewhere in Europe so they wouldnt be stuck for them. That being said AZ sent vaccines made in Europe to the UK and the UK has not sent those back. They were meant to supply both Europe and the UK across all 4 manufacuring facilities as well but all of what is being made in the UK isnt being sent back to Europe like it should but yet they're getting vaccines made in Europe. This is the whole problem. If they're not willing to reciprocate then why should they be benefiting at Europes expense?

Its AZ not sending them back (due to contract obligations?) - if the EU have a dispute, its with AZ and they should be taking them to court? Its like when the UK broke their contract with the EU, who are now taking them to court.

Sure there could be another debate about ethics and vaccine nationalism, but if two entities enter two separate contracts with one company and that company decides to prioritize one contract over the other when it can't fulfil both, then the argument is with the company and not the third party entity...

Personally I don't think its a good look for the EU to ban exports, especially if we are still on target to be fully vaccinated before October which is potentially the next really big wave.

Lumen

Having read a few Twitter threads, some people seem to be arguing that:

- The UK's acquisition by unclear means of additional vaccine flow compared to the EU was perfectly legitimate, and the EU should suck it up.

- The EU using its own legal powers to control the flow of vaccines is illegitimate, and constitutes a metaphorical act of war against the UK.

I've seen various theories advanced about why supply was tilted towards the UK, including reference to an earlier (May) contract, but nothing concrete or properly referenced.

The whole argument is pathetically ill informed and polarised.

rock22

schmoo2k wrote: »

Its AZ not sending them back (due to contract obligations?) - if the EU have a dispute, its with AZ and they should be taking them to court? Its like when the UK broke their contract with the EU, who are now taking them to court.

Sure there could be another debate about ethics and vaccine nationalism, but if two entities enter two separate contracts with one company and that company decides to prioritize one contract over the other when it can't fulfil both, then the argument is with the company and not the third party entity...

Personally I don't think its a good look for the EU to ban exports, especially if we are still on target to be fully vaccinated before October which is potentially the next really big wave.

That is exactly what EU are thinking of doing, banning AZ from exporting vaccines from it's EU plants.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

Which Covid vaccines are being manufactured and exported from Ireland?

Because, if there aren’t any (as I believe), that argument excusing MM is moot, and we are just left with him being completely craven.

Vaccines are made from many component parts and processes. Blanket bans such as the one being proposed have a habit of encompassing such products and services.

I'm just making the point that those criticising MM and accusing him of acting as some kind of Trojan horse on Johnson's behalf say that his words and actions "clearly" and "obviously" demonstrate this, when it's not at all clear that that's what's going on.

fly_agaric

rock22 wrote: »

That is exactly what EU are thinking of doing, banning AZ from exporting vaccines from it's EU plants.

Yes, waiting for the outcome of a future court case against AstraZeneca to take any action (if it does try to export more vaccines to the UK after already treating them preferentially on their order vs the EU while underdelivering) screams complete weakness to me.

I'm sure other MNCs, not to mention countries like the UK will take appropriate note of it for the future in their dealings with the EU.

Panrich

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, waiting for the outcome of a future court case against AstraZeneca to take any action (if it does try to export more vaccines to the UK after already treating them preferentially on their order vs the EU while underdelivering) screams complete weakness to me.

I'm sure other MNCs, not to mention countries like the UK will take appropriate note of it for the future in their dealings with the EU.

I don’t think that AstraZeneca will emerge from this as a role model for how to do business with the EU once the dust finally settles. I think that the knives are being sharpened in Brussels and the longer term effects for AZ might be significant.

CelticRambler

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, waiting for the outcome of a future court case against AstraZeneca to take any action (if it does try to export more vaccines to the UK after already treating them preferentially on their order vs the EU while underdelivering) screams complete weakness to me.

That's one way of looking at it.

The other way is to read between the lines: Monday, AZ publishes the result of their trials in the US saying "our vaccine is great"; Tuesday, the US regulators say "uhhhhh ... this data doesn't look quite right". There are ways of making life difficult for MNCs other than pursuing them through the courts, and regulators talking to regulators (including sharing information that isn't quite robust enough to make public) is one way.

Given that the EU is on the cusp of taking delivery of alternative vaccines that are significantly more effective than the AZ product, there's nothing to be gained by wasting resources trying to aggressively punish AZ right now when there are more vials sitting on EU shelves than can be administered to EU citizens. They'll get their comeuppance soon enough when some debilitating side-effect comes to light and the EU points out that we didn't grant them immunity like the British did.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Perhaps Michael can explain why an over 70 relative nearby with health conditions living in isolation for a year out of fear hasn’t got a vaccine, while uk who vaccinated half the adults with at least one doze and vaccinated more people yesterday than Ireland done in 3 months should continue to get preferential treatment?

This politically will backfire on Fianna Fáil (adding another entry to my grudge book). Perhaps he should have made more vaccines conditional on uk implementing what they agreed for with regards NI?

Don't derail the thread please. Take Covid discussion to the Coronavirus forum if it doesn't relate directly to Brexit.

fly_agaric

Panrich wrote: »

I don’t think that AstraZeneca will emerge from this as a role model for how to do business with the EU once the dust finally settles. I think that the knives are being sharpened in Brussels and the longer term effects for AZ might be significant.

I hope not. If they get EU money upfront, deliver ~ 30 % of what was promised (and that late) with 0 consequences/consequences arriving so late (legal action) it will not matter, while also being able to keep other customers around the world very sweet it seems like an attractive model for MNCs dealing with the EU & member states!
I'm sure the company are well aware they've burned a lot of bridges but probably don't care.
Anyway - will stop as this point as it is all only tangentially related to Brexit.

CelticRambler

In more not Brexit developments: Marine LePen was interviewed on French radio this morning. She didn't mention the le Brexit once, or make even the slightest suggestion that France think about quitting the EU, despite criticising it several times over in the space of twenty minutes. There's an election coming up here in a year's time; it might be a bit early to say for certain, but I think the hard right has decided that "Frexit" is not going to be vote winner.

dogbert27

CelticRambler wrote: »

In more not Brexit developments: Marine LePen was interviewed on French radio this morning. She didn't mention the le Brexit once, or make even the slightest suggestion that France think about quitting the EU, despite criticising it several times over in the space of twenty minutes. There's an election coming up here in a year's time; it might be a bit early to say for certain, but I think the hard right has decided that "Frexit" is not going to be vote winner.

She gave up on Frexit in 2017 and no says that she wants France within the EU but with a more far right agenda.

Gerry T

murphaph wrote: »

https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/SupplierAttachment/77bb967f-0194-452a-bdae-9999aecc753d

Link from here:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/17/europe/uk-astrazeneca-vaccine-contract-details-intl/index.html

Thanks, that's great, I'll have a look later this evening.

murphaph

dogbert27 wrote: »

She gave up on Frexit in 2017 and no says that she wants France within the EU but with a more far right agenda.

This is the next thing we need to be vigilant about. These nutters trying to make the EU itself an instrument of right wing populism. One would hope the way the EU is structured would make this impossible but something to watch out for. We saw how one recently departed member state was happy to send right wing populists as a good chunk of their MEP's to to EUParl. If the parliament is to have a greater say, then it's important that that doesn't become a trend.

yagan

I remember Le Pen trying to quell voter fears about leaving the EU and eurozone by saying the reintroduced Franc would be linked to the Euro, which was seen through easily as mere tokenism.

It is interesting how Brexit has made anti EU movements in individual countries now turn to eachother for unity within the EU!

Seth Brundle

The Food and Drink Federation in the UK have provided some numbers as to the low volume of exports in January due to Brexit - whilst in some ways the're not altogether surprising, they should come as a shock to the people fo the UK...

Salmon shipments declined 98% from the same period a year earlier, while sales of beef fell 92%, according to data compiled by UK lobby group the Food and Drink Federation (FDF).
...
While the coronavirus pandemic has had an impact on sales, “much” of the decline is due to new red tape faced by firms since Brexit, the FDF said.
...
The total value of food and drink exported to the EU from the UK in January 2020 was £1bn, according to the FDF. This fell to £256m in January 2021, it said.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40249283.html

Funny, I'd have thought that the UK would have been able to export a lot more than £1bn in a month in terms of food and drink.


Edit: more info on this from the FDF @ https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media/news/food-and-drink-federation-published-january-food-and-drink-trade-snapshot/

Padre_Pio

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The Food and Drink Federation in the UK have provided some numbers as to the low volume of exports in January due to Brexit - whilst in some ways the're not altogether surprising, they should come as a shock to the people fo the UK...

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40249283.html

Funny, I'd have thought that the UK would have been able to export a lot more than £1bn in a month in terms of food and drink.

You can't say this is just COVID.

People aren't eating and drinking 75% less than preCOVID, even with bars and restaurants closed.

CelticRambler

Padre_Pio wrote: »

You can't say this is just COVID.

People aren't eating and drinking 75% less than preCOVID, even with bars and restaurants closed.

Especially as the CSO figures indicate that Ireland's export to the EU of food & drink for the corresponding periods was only down by 10%.

Capt'n Midnight

UK steel industry looking for handouts from the magic money tree.
EU has gone shields up on dumping. Despite the deal there are still quotas on how much steel the UK can export to the EU.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56479298

Former British prime minister David Cameron was a paid advisor to Greensill Capital

...
Remember, in political currency, every car, aerospace, steel and defence job seems worth 10 times as much as every job in retail or services.

J Mysterio

Festival of Brexit: full steam ahead for 2022. Huzzah

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2021/mar/24/festival-of-brexit-first-events-for-divisive-120m-project-announced