Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

What benefit is it to them to have a brain drain like that? It might be easy to manipulate a dense population but if there's nobody with smarts left to drive on the economy, they're snookered.

The Tory's number one priority is staying in power and if making the UK poorer constantly gets them reelected then it's literally a no brainer.

There's as many UK voters over the age of 55 as there are under 55, but the over 55s tend to vote at a much higher rate. So if appealing to a nostalgia for a misremembered past has got them reelected twice since the Brexit vote I can't see them changing the record on the gramophone.

I won't be surprised if they start building replica Spitfires to be flown over every town on the weekends etc....

ancapailldorcha

yagan wrote: »

The Tory's number one priority is staying in power and if making the UK poorer constantly gets them reelected then it's literally a no brainer.

There's as many UK voters over the age of 55 as there are under 55, but the over 55s tend to vote at a much higher rate. So if appealing to a nostalgia for a misremembered past has got them reelected twice since the Brexit vote I can't see them changing the record on the gramophone.

I won't be surprised if they start building replica Spitfires to be flown over every town on the weekends etc....

The bigger problem is that the right is generally much more tolerant of differences and stable than the left here. Softer liberal Tories will continue to vote for Johnson whereas the Labour equivalent may vote Lib Dem or stay at home altogether.

Leading up to the end of 2019, it was all I could to keep from spitting up every time I heard the government of national unity trope. The idea that Jo Swinson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon governing together with a single digit majority in harmony is truly beyond parody when they not only wanted mutually exclusive things but Swinson was more focused on slagging Corbyn than Johnson.

The result is that all Johnson really needs to do is very little compared to the mountain that Starmer has to climb. Come 2024, the papers will repeat the lines about the Scottish tail wagging the English dog, Starmer wanting to break up the union and undo Brexit, etc. And, it'll work unless Johnson does something truly disastrous.

CelticRambler

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

What benefit is it to them to have a brain drain like that? It might be easy to manipulate a dense population but if there's nobody with smarts left to drive on the economy, they're snookered.

An economy based largely on consumption by the masses doesn't need too many "smarts" to make the rich richer. In fact, the fewer people you have challenging the KoolAid marketing campaigns with logical, well-founded, evidence-based arguments, the better. So keep the young people distracted with protests in favour of "wokeness"; bamboozle them about the more serious stuff with incessant lies, spin and revisionist history; and play dirty with the opposition parties at exactly the right moment in exactly the right constituencies to romp home to yet another victory on the back of a minority vote.

That gets you another four years to siphon off yet more millions from the KoolAid drinkers. It's worked before, it'll work again.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

And, by sheer coincidence, one of my older voter (anti-Brexit) British friends told me last night that she's making plans to emigrate to Australia next year, taking advantage of the fact that her qualifications are on the "desperately needed" list for Oz.

I reckon at least some in the shadows of the Tory party are counting on a slow exodus of those who can see what's happening, leaving an increasing proportion of the "hard of thinking" to be manipulated and exploited.

The brain drain is a very real risk for Brexit UK right now. Countries that go down the protectionist and isolationist route nearly always see a big outflow of people (usually the brightest). Both East Germany and Dev's Ireland in the 1950s saw net migration and depopulation of their respective countries.

It's almost laughable that Leave voters were concerned about high net immigration when we see what is probably coming next.

View

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The bigger problem is that the right is generally much more tolerant of differences and stable than the left here. Softer liberal Tories will continue to vote for Johnson whereas the Labour equivalent may vote Lib Dem or stay at home altogether.

Leading up to the end of 2019, it was all I could to keep from spitting up every time I heard the government of national unity trope. The idea that Jo Swinson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon governing together with a single digit majority in harmony is truly beyond parody when they not only wanted mutually exclusive things but Swinson was more focused on slagging Corbyn than Johnson.

The result is that all Johnson really needs to do is very little compared to the mountain that Starmer has to climb. Come 2024, the papers will repeat the lines about the Scottish tail wagging the English dog, Starmer wanting to break up the union and undo Brexit, etc. And, it'll work unless Johnson does something truly disastrous.

Labour were never interested in the government of national unity idea. They preferred to lose to the Conservatives than to work with the other opposition parties to unseat them. As the other major beneficiary of FPTP they had, and have, no interest in upsetting the duopoly they share with the Conservatives.

A government of national unity didn’t have to last long. All that was needed was:
1) find a compromise candidate for PM - maybe the then “unacceptable to Labour” Kier Starmer or even someone “neutral” like Caroline Lucas (who wouldn’t have been in the running for PM in subsequent),
2) elect them to office, thus turning Johnson into the biggest self-inflicted failure of a PM in modern British history,
3) cancel Brexit, thus leaving the hardline Brexiters looking like idiots for having engaged in infighting rather than vote for May’s deals,
4) vote in a PR electoral system - which would completely work against the prospect of the current hardline Conservatives either gaining a majority or being able to form a coalition,
5) having transformed the political landscape, call a GE.

yagan

Strazdas wrote: »

It's almost laughable that Leave voters were concerned about high net immigration when we see what is probably coming next.

Next week the Spanish start trawling the costa for unregistered British overstayers. Expect lots of howling and screaming about deportations but the message will be unmistakeable, the door is shut.

Capt'n Midnight

Honda's Swindon car plant sold to logistics firm

The plant closure is old news, but a logistics firm replacing manufacturing doesn't sound like a lot of jobs or a demand for factories.

And how much of the logistics is Brexit related stockpiling or bulk orders to spread the new per-order costs of EU trade ?

fash

.
So NI protocol is to remain a UK bargaining chip then.

schmoo2k

fash wrote: »

.
So NI protocol is to remain a UK bargaining chip then.

"Joint UK-EU Financial Regulatory Forum" - I wonder how much time was spent agreeing the it was "UK-EU" and not "EU-UK"?

CelticRambler

From the tweeted FT article:

The EU and UK have reached a deal on how to co-operate in shaping rules for banks and financial markets, a key step before Brussels considers further market-access rights for the City of London.

<snip>

The forum falls short of the legally binding co-operation arrangements that the UK hoped to secure during its future-relationship talks last year with Brussels.

So they've agreed to talk, and how and when they'll talk. But it's non-binding. A bit like the Brexit referendum, then.

View

CelticRambler wrote: »

From the tweeted FT article:



So they've agreed to talk, and how and when they'll talk. But it's non-binding. A bit like the Brexit referendum, then.

If the existing agreements aren’t being operated in full and in accordance with all terms of them, the EU countries shouldn’t be even considering negotiating anything to do with Finance. Hard line Brexiters (ie most of the Conservative party) will regard this as a sign of weakness by the EU and regard it as a green light to mess around with the NI Protocol.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

From the tweeted FT article:



So they've agreed to talk, and how and when they'll talk. But it's non-binding. A bit like the Brexit referendum, then.

That sounds a bit of a "hot air" story - not that much substance to it.

Larbre34

There are so many holes appearing in the fundamental damn of the British economy, its actually scary.

Whats even scarier, is how negligently Britain is being governed and that its people are just taking it. Its like some sort of bizarre Helsinki syndrome (as in, Helsinki Sweden)

Strazdas

Larbre34 wrote: »

There are so many holes appearing in the fundamental damn of the British economy, its actually scary.

Whats even scarier, is how negligently Britain is being governed and that its people are just taking it. Its like some sort of bizarre Helsinki syndrome (as in, Helsinki Sweden)

I've suggested here before that Brexit UK could go bankrupt. They've cut themselves off from the EU and Single Market after 50 years of membership (an act of insanity). They are now being run by chancers and charlatans : they could simply run out of money and the IMF has to be called in bail them out.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

I've suggested here before that Brexit UK could go bankrupt. They've cut themselves off from the EU and Single Market after 50 years of membership (an act of insanity). They are now being run by chancers and charlatans : they could simply run out of money and the IMF has to be called in bail them out.

And likely the ECB, too.

A Zimbabwean economy is, however, not the next that will come to the UK.

But absolute needed import must in the long run be paid for by export. When the world realises that the UK export is more permanently reduced, direct investments will be much less and additional international loans will switch from £ to $, €, Yen, CHF or CNY (Renminbi).

Devaluation of the £ will then NOT help repaying or servicing such loans. In a modern networked economy devaluation will make the external supply chain more expensive and not help much on productivity and competitiveness of the UK. (e.g. a UK assembled auto contains only 25-33% british value added)

You have to be good at what you do/produce, you can't save the economy by money manipulations for more than a very, very short period.

Lars

kowloon

Larbre34 wrote: »

There are so many holes appearing in the fundamental damn of the British economy, its actually scary.

Whats even scarier, is how negligently Britain is being governed and that its people are just taking it. Its like some sort of bizarre Helsinki syndrome (as in, Helsinki Sweden)

Do you mean Stockholm syndrome or am I missing something?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't just paste links & tweets. 2 posts removed.

The Raging Bile Duct

kowloon wrote: »

Do you mean Stockholm syndrome or am I missing something?

It's a Die Hard reference.

kowloon

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

It's a Die Hard reference.

I'd like to apologise to everyone on the forum, I'm ashamed of myself and humbly beg your forgiveness for my crime against one of the best action movies every created. I will now leave to spend some time reflecting on what I have done.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/jasonomahony/status/1375896901325885442

Bloody hell.

I knew that something like that was half talked about over the past few years, but to see if potentially coming into action now...truly astonishing.

Headshot

Dont think many in Spain (Spanish Residents) would shed a tear

Nody

Frank Bullitt wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jasonomahony/status/1375896901325885442

Bloody hell.

I knew that something like that was half talked about over the past few years, but to see if potentially coming into action now...truly astonishing.

Nothing potential about it, they got a 90 day visa tourist which expires on 31st March basically and after that they are illegally staying in Spain if they don't have a residency. Expect a lot more crying in the newspapers about the fines they are going to be hit with as they are deported and how unfair it is they did not get a chance to pack etc. as they get rounded up and sent home with a big fine to go with it. The funny part was that in the interview you had a lady going "Well I'm sure France, Spain etc. will leave as well, they will look at UK going first and show how to do it" and I'm simply sitting there thinking to myself "How bloody thick are you to not see the reality of things even living in Spain?".

Patser

Reading an article from those tweets

https://global247news.com/2021/03/09/spain-expects-to-deport-in-excess-of-500-brits-from-the-costa-del-sol-costa-blanca/


It does seem like the Spanish police are working with the British police, to use these new powers the especially target the criminal element that have hidden out in the South of Spain (sometimes for decades). This cohort probably would have had Spanish residency rejected anyway if they applied, but now Spain can happily get rid of them, and the British police will be waiting for them on arrival.

It's brilliant

roosterman71

Wasn't it on here someone mentioned The UK giving Ireland vaccines and how it would turn into a big story and it would be interesting to see how we deal with it should such an offer come up. Looks like it's going to happen. Tomorrows Sunday Times report the UK are going to give us 3.5m vaccines

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375934221936685058?s=20

Personally, I'd like to see MM tell him grand, direct them to the EU to be distributed pro-rata as per the EUs plan. That way we take the offer, and align with the EU and not go on a solo run. Alternatively, get them to healthcare workers in poorer regions of the world where they have no hope of getting them for a long time yet.

MrMusician18

roosterman71 wrote: »

Wasn't it on here someone mentioned The UK giving Ireland vaccines and how it would turn into a big story and it would be interesting to see how we deal with it should such an offer come up. Looks like it's going to happen. Tomorrows Sunday Times report the UK are going to give us 3.5m vaccines

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375934221936685058?s=20

Personally, I'd like to see MM tell him grand, direct them to the EU to be distributed pro-rata as per the EUs plan. That way we take the offer, and align with the EU and not go on a solo run. Alternatively, get them to healthcare workers in poorer regions of the world where they have no hope of getting them for a long time yet.

That's not politically possible. It would be interesting to see what conditions they come with (though is plebs will never find that out)

It even says in the ST article that the offer is designed as a poke in the eye to Brussels.

roosterman71

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That's not politically possible. It would be interesting to see what conditions they come with (though is plebs will never find that out)

It even says in the ST article that the offer is designed as a poke in the eye to Brussels.

It definitely comes with strings. Just like the bailout they gave us and the early repayment penalty clauses. No idea what those strings are though

The Raging Bile Duct

At a time when they're facing constrained supply over the coming weeks, it seems very suss that they are suddenly offering us doses. This move is nothing more than an attempt to throw the cat amongst the pigeons. The worst thing is that the Irish media will lap it up as well, demanding that we take the UK up on their offer.

Strazdas

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

At a time when they're facing constrained supply over the coming weeks, it seems very suss that they are suddenly offering us doses. This move is nothing more than an attempt to throw the cat amongst the pigeons. The worst thing is that the Irish media will lap it up as well, demanding that we take the UK up on their offer.

I said in the vaccines thread that I'd be very suspicious whether this story is even true. They are nowhere near finished vaccinating their own population and won't be for months, so how they could somehow magic up 3.7m surplus vaccines out of nowhere is most questionable.

wexfordman2

roosterman71 wrote: »

Wasn't it on here someone mentioned The UK giving Ireland vaccines and how it would turn into a big story and it would be interesting to see how we deal with it should such an offer come up. Looks like it's going to happen. Tomorrows Sunday Times report the UK are going to give us 3.5m vaccines

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375934221936685058?s=20

Personally, I'd like to see MM tell him grand, direct them to the EU to be distributed pro-rata as per the EUs plan. That way we take the offer, and align with the EU and not go on a solo run. Alternatively, get them to healthcare workers in poorer regions of the world where they have no hope of getting them for a long time yet.

This is the test, we cannot at this stage owe anything to BJ, or be seem to take what was or.shoidlmhavr been EU vaccines

NeuralNetwork

I strongly suspect this is political hot air. We know a fair amount at this stage about the vaccine supply chains. The UK is not in a position to offer millions of vaccines for sale to anyone at the moment.

They have some domestic capacity to produce AstraZeneca, but not even remotely enough to meet their own demand. The majority of that supply came from plants on the continent and further doses came from India, which is now banning exports to meet its own urgent domestic needs.

The Pfizer vaccines they're using came entirely from Puurs in Belgium and that's it really.

If they offer us some theoretical 3.7 million 'excess' doses to purchase, they may be delivered long after the EU supplies have ramped up dramatically. We're already looking at having something close to 18.5 million theoretical doses through the EU pro-rata joint purchase. That means we will likely be making a substantial donation of doses to COVAX and many of those doses will never be manufactured as they will come in Q3 and Q4. Some of them may also be delivered as boosters for viral variants.

If the doses exist and are available in the next month or so, we might well take them. There's no way you can play politics with this, whatever the Tories are up to - lives are lives.

However, I suspect this is smoke and mirror nonsense to either show up the EU or some other political agenda.

There are also two very strong reasons why they need to be in Ireland's good books:

1) Biden and I think that's only dawning on them now, particularly as a US trade deal may be off the agenda if they cause issues here.
2) They've no soft power whatsoever in the EU anymore and may see us as being a window of communication.