Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I strongly suspect this is political hot air. We know a fair amount at this stage about the vaccine supply chains. The UK is not in a position to offer millions of vaccines for sale to anyone at the moment.

They have some domestic capacity to produce AstraZeneca, but not even remotely enough to meet their own demand. The majority of that supply came from plants on the continent and further doses came from India, which is now banning exports to meet its own urgent domestic needs.

The Pfizer vaccines they're using came entirely from Puurs in Belgium and that's it really.

If they offer us some theoretical 3.7 million 'excess' doses to purchase, they may be delivered long after the EU supplies have ramped up dramatically. We're already looking at having something close to 18.5 million theoretical doses through the EU pro-rata joint purchase. That means we will likely be making a substantial donation of doses to COVAX and many of those doses will never be manufactured as they will come in Q3 and Q4. Some of them may also be delivered as boosters for viral variants.

If the doses exist and are available in the next month or so, we might well take them. There's no way you can play politics with this, whatever the Tories are up to - lives are lives.

However, I suspect this is smoke and mirror nonsense to either show up the EU or some other political agenda.

There are also two very strong reasons why they need to be in Ireland's good books:

1) Biden and I think that's only dawning on them now, particularly as a US trade deal may be off the agenda if they cause issues here.
2) They've no soft power whatsoever in the EU anymore and may see us as being a window of communication.

A more sinister reason would be to try and drive a wedge between Ireland and the EU. You wouldn't put it past them.

But if that was the plan, Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would be immediately on to them and realise what they were up to.

rock22

Strazdas wrote: »

A more sinister reason would be to try and drive a wedge between Ireland and the EU. You wouldn't put it past them.

I think you are right. In fact I can think of no other reason for the offer.

The Independent has a similar story.

There the UK ambassador is quoted as saying
"The prime minister says when we get to the stage of having a surplus - which we're far, far away from yet - that Ireland would be high up in our consideration of that. I think not least because of the shared island, you can see there's a strong case for that."

So it seems that it is nothing more than pious aspirations. Incidentally, the BBC are reporting that they are going to donate the same surplus vaccines to poorer countries.

Strazdas wrote: »

But if that was the plan, Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would be immediately on to them and realise what they were up to.

Maybe

Jizique

Strazdas wrote: »

A more sinister reason would be to try and drive a wedge between Ireland and the EU. You wouldn't put it past them.

But if that was the plan, Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would be immediately on to them and realise what they were up to.

I don’t think Martin would, he seems to trust them.
They are even giving us a role in their World Cup.

CelticRambler

The juxtaposition of two cheesy stories this weekend seems to me to highlight the complete failure of the Brexit promise.

On the one hand, we have Simon Spurrell of the Cheshire Cheese Company describing how the best his government can offer to fill the "£250,000 hole in his export trade with Europe" is to offer him vague and not very practical help in developing trade with (not always lactose intolerant) emerging markets. All-in-all: no change, no go ...

“It was a fairly useless conversation as a whole,” he said.

<snip>

A spokesperson for Defra said Spurrell’s reflection of the meeting was different to theirs and while the minister was unable to help him on the health certificate requirements, she “highlighted our desire to help the Cheshire Cheese Company where possible”.

On the other, we have a bunch of monks hidden away in a Burgundian abbey with a cellar full of cheese and no passing trade to sell it to. Someone suggests they sell it online, so they set themselves a target of shifting 1 tonne over five days. 24 hours later, they've sold 2 tonnes and are effectively out of stock. (French link - the only English language links I could find are still on Friday time)

Shelga

roosterman71 wrote: »

Wasn't it on here someone mentioned The UK giving Ireland vaccines and how it would turn into a big story and it would be interesting to see how we deal with it should such an offer come up. Looks like it's going to happen. Tomorrows Sunday Times report the UK are going to give us 3.5m vaccines

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375934221936685058?s=20

Personally, I'd like to see MM tell him grand, direct them to the EU to be distributed pro-rata as per the EUs plan. That way we take the offer, and align with the EU and not go on a solo run. Alternatively, get them to healthcare workers in poorer regions of the world where they have no hope of getting them for a long time yet.

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Are you ok with more Irish people dying, so long as we can tell the EU we are good little boys? Completely agree we should meet our responsibilities under the Covax programme, but that's all.

Do people on this thread actually talk to anyone in the real world? Britain on 55% of its population having received first doses, we're on, what- 12%? I understand all of the reasons why the EU is further behind, and do not think we would have done any better on our own due to our small size, but the fact is they have failed, by any reasonable yardstick, compared to the UK and the USA.

Would you still want us to hand doses over to the EU, if they were offered by Biden and not Johnson?

It seems like everyone on this thread is just muttering darkly about how Britain will see, yes any day now, why our strategy is better. I'm not seeing it. And I couldn't be any more of a Remainer.

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

A more sinister reason would be to try and drive a wedge between Ireland and the EU. You wouldn't put it past them.

But if that was the plan, Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would be immediately on to them and realise what they were up to.

That's exactly the reason. The article even says the goal is to poke Brussels in the eye. Ireland would be very naïve to take the offer at face value and that's even if they have millions of doses to spare, which they don't.

If Ireland does mistakenly accept any such offer without the doses being shared with places like Czechia, it cannot expect any EU solidarity in other matters. It is about life and death but other EU partners are in dire straits right now.

schmoo2k

Shelga wrote: »

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Are you ok with more Irish people dying, so long as we can tell the EU we are good little boys? Completely agree we should meet our responsibilities under the Covax programme, but that's all.

Do people on this thread actually talk to anyone in the real world? Britain on 55% of its population having received first doses, we're on, what- 12%? I understand all of the reasons why the EU is further behind, and do not think we would have done any better on our own due to our small size, but the fact is they have failed, by any reasonable yardstick, compared to the UK and the USA.

Would you still want us to hand doses over to the EU, if they were offered by Biden and not Johnson?

It seems like everyone on this thread is just muttering darkly about how Britain will see, yes any day now, why our strategy is better. I'm not seeing it. And I couldn't be any more of a Remainer.

Thats the thing, you're talking about two nations who export 0 vaccines yet have imported 10 million and 1 million (estimates) from the EU.

So if your yardstick is a nationalistic one, I agree (with the added comment below), but if your yardstick is a global one I would disagree...

Added Comment: If the EU 27 countries had decided to take this approach independently, then I suspect 3 or 4 of the wealthier ones (with a large pharma presence) would have equalled or surpassed the US / UK. But the other 23 nations would be even worse off.

Its in the UKs interest to have Ireland vaccinated from a pandemic point of view, but this "offer" sounds like a political stunt, unless they have those doses on a truck ready to go (with the appropriate forms and vet certs)...

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Are you ok with more Irish people dying, so long as we can tell the EU we are good little boys? Completely agree we should meet our responsibilities under the Covax programme, but that's all.

Do people on this thread actually talk to anyone in the real world? Britain on 55% of its population having received first doses, we're on, what- 12%? I understand all of the reasons why the EU is further behind, and do not think we would have done any better on our own due to our small size, but the fact is they have failed, by any reasonable yardstick, compared to the UK and the USA.

Would you still want us to hand doses over to the EU, if they were offered by Biden and not Johnson?

It seems like everyone on this thread is just muttering darkly about how Britain will see, yes any day now, why our strategy is better. I'm not seeing it. And I couldn't be any more of a Remainer.

I haven't seen anyone suggest that the EU strategy has been more successful. Maybe a slight plus is that the EU is paying about 30% less per dose for the AstraZeneca vaccine.

It's a difficult decision until the next time we need EU solidarity. The fact remains that we are going to need support when it comes to matters NI. It wouldn't be a good look if we were much more vaccinated than other EU countries as a result of donated British vaccines. Britain will expect a quid pro quo and EU countries will think that Ireland can look after itself seeing as it already did with vaccines. I would think we would be told to put up a hard border and stfu.

CelticRambler

Shelga wrote: »

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Well, you could look at it in this way: there's no guarantee that Britain will have access to enough vaccines to give second doses to the majority of its population, certainly not the younger risk-takers. This could, potentially, create the conditions needed for yet another variant to emerge within the GB population, this time resistant to the AZ vaccine and one or more of the others.

Should MM accept these AZ vaccines (made in India, made in EU) and follow the same "first vacc now, second vacc ... yeah, whenever, maybe, oh look - big numbers ..." strategy, chances are the citizens of Ireland would end up in a worse situation, and then find themselves banned from entering the Schengen zone, locked out of the EU - on an individual level - for yet another year.

From the very beginning, the EU's failures in respect of the handling of this public health challenge are entirely due to its lack of jurisdiction over national health strategies. The way to get on top of the situation is not by exercising yet more Covid nationalism.

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Are you ok with more Irish people dying, so long as we can tell the EU we are good little boys? Completely agree we should meet our responsibilities under the Covax programme, but that's all.

Do people on this thread actually talk to anyone in the real world? Britain on 55% of its population having received first doses, we're on, what- 12%? I understand all of the reasons why the EU is further behind, and do not think we would have done any better on our own due to our small size, but the fact is they have failed, by any reasonable yardstick, compared to the UK and the USA.

Would you still want us to hand doses over to the EU, if they were offered by Biden and not Johnson?

It seems like everyone on this thread is just muttering darkly about how Britain will see, yes any day now, why our strategy is better. I'm not seeing it. And I couldn't be any more of a Remainer.

I don't have a problem with the idea of Ireland accepting a British offer of vaccines in and of itself as I said at the start of the month:

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, unless there's been a confirmed offer of vaccines from London to Dublin, I don't see the point of worrying about anything being muddied or undermined.

There's no way the current insular nationalist government presiding here will be exporting any vaccines before the vast majority of people here are vaccinated. It's senseless and it'll attract the same sort of ire that some people reserved for the foreign aid budget. Moreso, in fact as it'll be to an EU member state and that it'll be Ireland of all countries.

If vaccines are offered as a gift, I see no issue in accepting them but otherwise the British should be treated as the bad actors they've proven themselves to be.

The UK has a land border with Ireland. It's in their interest for this border to be as smooth and frictionless as possible whether or not they realise this.

It's important to note that the British "strategy" is largely based on throwing vast quantities of cash at their world class Universities and research facilities as opposed to Matt Hancock's sheer brilliance and mastery of vaccinology, epidemiology and virology. Then they rushed the thing out as soon as possible and started postponing the second dose against the advice of the manufacturers. Being in the EU never prevented this despite the propaganda. The EU can't even keep Hungary in line so how would it stop the much larger UK?

At some point in the near future, people are going to stop talking about vaccines as they'll be yesterday's news. The British strategy is better because they gambled with money and the health of their population and now they're odiously running around as if this were some feat of deft strategical mastery. They continue to burn their soft power and their political capital so they can wave their flag and pander to the lowest common denominator of their base.

If your sole concern is getting a vaccine and, in a pandemic this is not small thing then, yes, the British strategy is better but this will pass eventually and I'm not seeing much in the way of indication that the UK will be the place to be or the country to align with after that point.

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Are you ok with more Irish people dying, so long as we can tell the EU we are good little boys? Completely agree we should meet our responsibilities under the Covax programme, but that's all.

Do people on this thread actually talk to anyone in the real world? Britain on 55% of its population having received first doses, we're on, what- 12%? I understand all of the reasons why the EU is further behind, and do not think we would have done any better on our own due to our small size, but the fact is they have failed, by any reasonable yardstick, compared to the UK and the USA.

Would you still want us to hand doses over to the EU, if they were offered by Biden and not Johnson?

It seems like everyone on this thread is just muttering darkly about how Britain will see, yes any day now, why our strategy is better. I'm not seeing it. And I couldn't be any more of a Remainer.

We will have more than enough vaccines to occupy us in the next few months as J&J comes online and is distributed along with increases in Pfizer and eventually AZ as well. The UK is being sneaky with this offer, nothing more or less. You should know this current government thrives on confrontation and they see a chance to grab a advantage for themselves if there is disunity among the EU.

So on the bolded bit, yes we will need to hand over any doses we receive extra to the Commission to hand out as they see fit, because we are better as a unified EU. The UK never got this and that is why they left.

Don't be fooled by the current vaccine numbers, in a few months they will be forgotten and the focus will need to shift on the effort to vaccinate the world. At this snapshot in time the UK is doing well but we will have to see how and where we are in a few months time.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't have a problem with the idea of Ireland accepting a British offer of vaccines in and of itself as I said at the start of the month:



The UK has a land border with Ireland. It's in their interest for this border to be as smooth and frictionless as possible whether or not they realise this.

It's important to note that the British "strategy" is largely based on throwing vast quantities of cash at their world class Universities and research facilities as opposed to Matt Hancock's sheer brilliance and mastery of vaccinology, epidemiology and virology. Then they rushed the thing out as soon as possible and started postponing the second dose against the advice of the manufacturers. Being in the EU never prevented this despite the propaganda. The EU can't even keep Hungary in line so how would it stop the much larger UK?

At some point in the near future, people are going to stop talking about vaccines as they'll be yesterday's news. The British strategy is better because they gambled with money and the health of their population and now they're odiously running around as if this were some feat of deft strategical mastery. They continue to burn their soft power and their political capital so they can wave their flag and pander to the lowest common denominator of their base.

If your sole concern is getting a vaccine and, in a pandemic this is not small thing then, yes, the British strategy is better but this will pass eventually and I'm not seeing much in the way of indication that the UK will be the place to be or the country to align with after that point.

TBF, it is now accepted that the optimum gap between the first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 12 weeks. Others are typically about 4-6 weeks.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

TBF, it is now accepted that the optimum gap between the first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 12 weeks. Others are typically about 4-6 weeks.

That might be accepted wisdom now, but it was not when the UK started delaying the second dose. They have been extremely fortunate in their choices with vaccines, but not so fortunate with their other choices - herd immunity, PPE, track and trace, ventilators, death rates, etc. etc.

If the metric is the delivery of the second doses, they are not doing quite so well as they claim. They are now getting to have to deliver the second doses for those vaccinated in January - how is that going? By the middle of May, most over 70s should be fully vaccinated here - which is not hugely different to the UK.

Seth Brundle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

TBF, it is now accepted that the optimum gap between the first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 12 weeks. Others are typically about 4-6 weeks.

The UK took a gamble which seems to have paid off. Was it a reckless gamble? What would have happened if they made the wrong choice?

murphaph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

TBF, it is now accepted that the optimum gap between the first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 12 weeks. Others are typically about 4-6 weeks.

Indeed and Ireland and Germany at least are both recommending the 12 week gap for AZ but it was an (educated in fairness) gamble that the UK government took with the health of its own people that we are able to profit from the data.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

That might be accepted wisdom now, but it was not when the UK started delaying the second dose. They have been extremely fortunate in their choices with vaccines, but not so fortunate with their other choices - herd immunity, PPE, track and trace, ventilators, death rates, etc. etc.

If the metric is the delivery of the second doses, they are not doing quite so well as they claim. They are now getting to have to deliver the second doses for those vaccinated in January - how is that going? By the middle of May, most over 70s should be fully vaccinated here - which is not hugely different to the UK.

Well Johnson's Covid overall response amounts to criminal negligence. The EU may be taking a different approach, but I personally would agree with the chief medical officers decision to focus on the first jab only especially as they were in crisis in January. The greatest protection by far comes from the first jab. How long that protection lasts is a matter for debate. Is it better to give as many people decent protection (UK) or focus on full protection (EU)? The former for me.

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The UK took a gamble which seems to have paid off. Was it a reckless gamble? What would have happened if they made the wrong choice?

Their numbers were skyrocketing. I wonder if they even had a choice.

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

Indeed and Ireland and Germany at least are both recommending the 12 week gap for AZ but it was an (educated in fairness) gamble that the UK government took with the health of its own people that we are able to profit from the data.

Exactly. The HSE recently got more definitive data on the AstraZeneca virus from studies recently done in England.

Padre_Pio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Their numbers were skyrocketing. I wonder if they even had a choice.

Probably didn't have a a choice.

Though remember they also took the gamble on herd immunity, and that didn't pay off.

yagan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't have a problem with the idea of Ireland accepting a British offer of vaccines in and of itself as I said at the start of the month:

Considering how AZ revised down its EU delivery by 70% at one stage while its exports from the EU to the UK weren't affected I'd imagine any vaccine passed onto us from the UK were ours to begin with.

Johnson himself boasted capitalism (greed) was behind the success of their vaccine rollout.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

TBF, it is now accepted that the optimum gap between the first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 12 weeks. Others are typically about 4-6 weeks.

True but this wasn't known at the time and it's all but been entirely forgotten here now.

Sam Russell

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Probably didn't have a a choice.

Though remember they also took the gamble on herd immunity, and that didn't pay off.

We have not heard about herd immunity for about a year. During that year, the UK have had two and a half times the death rate we have suffered.

Currently the media are concentrating on the latest subject of interest - vaccines. Now, slowing coming into view is the next hot topic - how well does the vaccine handle the new variants. Now if a fully vaccinated person does better than a partially vaccinated person, there might be a different story to tell. Also if the AZ fares badly compared to Pfizer or the other way round, then again a different story.

Let us hope by July, vaccines will be yesterdays story, like the ventilators are now not an issue (remember them?) or the rush to corner the market on PPE.

Maybe we will be getting back to normal be August - at least in Europe so we can concentrate on COVAX. If Europe and USA and China are fully vaccinated, that leaves 5 billion of the world not vaccinated - South America, Africa, and much of Asia.

BonnieSituation

Strazdas wrote: »

A more sinister reason would be to try and drive a wedge between Ireland and the EU. You wouldn't put it past them.

But if that was the plan, Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would be immediately on to them and realise what they were up to.

Coveney and Varadkar would.

We all know exactly how Martin is going to deal with this, badly.

BonnieSituation

Shelga wrote: »

Oh please, why on earth would MM do this? The primary role of government is to look after the health and wellbeing of its own citizens, not showing solidarity with the EU.

Are you ok with more Irish people dying, so long as we can tell the EU we are good little boys? Completely agree we should meet our responsibilities under the Covax programme, but that's all.

Do people on this thread actually talk to anyone in the real world? Britain on 55% of its population having received first doses, we're on, what- 12%? I understand all of the reasons why the EU is further behind, and do not think we would have done any better on our own due to our small size, but the fact is they have failed, by any reasonable yardstick, compared to the UK and the USA.

Would you still want us to hand doses over to the EU, if they were offered by Biden and not Johnson?

It seems like everyone on this thread is just muttering darkly about how Britain will see, yes any day now, why our strategy is better. I'm not seeing it. And I couldn't be any more of a Remainer.

There are NO surplus vaccines.

Martin is such an awful politician that he'd strap us to any old guff and be dammed the long-term consequences.

Our response to the UK should be "thank you very much for your generous aspirational offer, when you ACTUALLY have a surplus, we can talk".

rock22

It is worth reminding us what is being promised. ( See comments from UK ambassador I link to earlier)
We are being moved up the list to receive any vaccine that might be left over , after the excess vaccine which might exist after the UK have completed their vaccination programme has been delivered to poor countries .
And this vaccine will have to come from the EU or India in the first place becasue the UK have insufficient doses to complete their programme on schedule.

We could (and maybe should) also promised that when we finished our programme here and have given what excess we wish to poor countries that the UK would move up the list of nations we will donate to, if there is then anything left over.

schmoo2k

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There are NO surplus vaccines.

Martin is such an awful politician that he'd strap us to any old guff and be dammed the long-term consequences.

Our response to the UK should be "thank you very much for your generous aspirational offer, when you ACTUALLY have a surplus, we can talk".

It is worth pointing out that we haven't actually been offered the vaccines? And given there was a speculative post here a couple of weeks ago predicting this, it should be removed from the Brexit thread and moved to the conspiracy thread? I don't have access to the Times article so couldn't see where the information actually came from?

Shelga

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There are NO surplus vaccines.

Martin is such an awful politician that he'd strap us to any old guff and be dammed the long-term consequences.

Our response to the UK should be "thank you very much for your generous aspirational offer, when you ACTUALLY have a surplus, we can talk".

Agree that there is no offer from the UK government that doesn't come with strings, and also that I'll believe an offer of vaccines at Easter when I actually see them. :rolleyes: Foster saying we can have surplus vaccines when their programme is completely finished- so, when- September? Thanks Arlene!

Also agree Martin is an awful Taoiseach.

schmoo2k

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The UK took a gamble which seems to have paid off. Was it a reckless gamble? What would have happened if they made the wrong choice?

Not really a gamble as they paid top dollar to back every producer (haven't they ordered > 350 million doses?)

Bottom line is they are rolling out their vaccine program ahead of the majority of the world - I have no problem with giving them kudos for that (doesn't mean I like the way their media portrays it of course).

Akrasia

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There are NO surplus vaccines.

Martin is such an awful politician that he'd strap us to any old guff and be dammed the long-term consequences.

Our response to the UK should be "thank you very much for your generous aspirational offer, when you ACTUALLY have a surplus, we can talk".

It’s not even a ‘generous aspirational offer’ the UK ordered way more vaccine doses than they needed (in a selfish attempt to monopolize supply and hedge against potential supply/efficacy issues) and they’ll need to offload their surplus’s orders . They’re not offering to give them to us, they’re ‘offering’ to sell them to us.

Ireland should tell them that we have already sourced a supply of vaccines and that they should donate their surplus vaccines to the global effort to vaccinate less developed countries

BonnieSituation

schmoo2k wrote: »

It is worth pointing out that we haven't actually been offered the vaccines? And given there was a speculative post here a couple of weeks ago predicting this, it should be removed from the Brexit thread and moved to the conspiracy thread? I don't have access to the Times article so couldn't see where the information actually came from?

It is indeed worth pointing out. So much so that I did that very thing.

I also wrote that post a few weeks back about how the UK would likely head down this road. And bam, here we are.