Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation

Akrasia wrote: »

It’s not even a ‘generous aspirational offer’ the UK ordered way more vaccine doses than they needed (in a selfish attempt to monopolize supply and hedge hedge against potential supply/efficacy issues) and they’ll need to offload their surplus’s orders . They’re not offering to give them to us, they’re ‘offering’ to sell them to us.

Ireland should tell them that we have already sourced a supply of vaccines and that they should donate their surplus vaccines to the global effort to vaccinate less developed countries

It's exactly what we should tell them, but the shriekers in the Irish media and on here will go to town about it.

It will be as unbearable as all of those screams of us being anti-British by virtue of being critical of this heinous Tory Govt.

Shelga

The Sunday Times is reporting that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, have had "outline discussions" about the plan to offer 3.7m vaccines to us. Agree that that is not exactly a concrete offer. It also says that "Easter will be when we might be able to start offering vaccines to Ireland"- no further information on how many vaccines at Easter.

But what should the Irish government response be, if the offer does materialise, and is contingent on the vaccines being administered on the island, in order to have most impact? Ie the offer does not exist if we then say we're going to send them all to the EU; take them for our own citizens or don't take them at all?

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

It’s not even a ‘generous aspirational offer’ the UK ordered way more vaccine doses than they needed (in a selfish attempt to monopolize supply and hedge against potential supply/efficacy issues) and they’ll need to offload their surplus’s orders . They’re not offering to give them to us, they’re ‘offering’ to sell them to us.

Ireland should tell them that we have already sourced a supply of vaccines and that they should donate their surplus vaccines to the global effort to vaccinate less developed countries

This.

Beechwoodspark

Shelga wrote: »

The Sunday Times is reporting that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, have had "outline discussions" about the plan to offer 3.7m vaccines to us. Agree that that is not exactly a concrete offer. It also says that "Easter will be when we might be able to start offering vaccines to Ireland"- no further information on how many vaccines at Easter.

But what should the Irish government response be, if the offer does materialise, and is contingent on the vaccines being administered on the island, in order to have most impact? Ie the offer does not exist if we then say we're going to send them all to the EU; take them for our own citizens or don't take them at all?

Let’s see if the offer materialises first

From what I’ve read recently (last few days) the UK may be under pressure to do the second jabs for the people they’ve already given the AZ to

This is partly because India was drastically scaled back its exports to the UK and also the EU is taking the issue of exports to the UK very seriously.

So, let’s see. IF the uk does make a credible offer to ireland then it is something to consider.

VinLieger

Shelga wrote: »

The Sunday Times is reporting that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, have had "outline discussions" about the plan to offer 3.7m vaccines to us. Agree that that is not exactly a concrete offer. It also says that "Easter will be when we might be able to start offering vaccines to Ireland"- no further information on how many vaccines at Easter.

But what should the Irish government response be, if the offer does materialise, and is contingent on the vaccines being administered on the island, in order to have most impact? Ie the offer does not exist if we then say we're going to send them all to the EU; take them for our own citizens or don't take them at all?

Any vaccines they send us will more than likely have been made in Europe considering that's where the majority are still coming from.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

The Sunday Times is reporting that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, have had "outline discussions" about the plan to offer 3.7m vaccines to us. Agree that that is not exactly a concrete offer. It also says that "Easter will be when we might be able to start offering vaccines to Ireland"- no further information on how many vaccines at Easter.

But what should the Irish government response be, if the offer does materialise, and is contingent on the vaccines being administered on the island, in order to have most impact? Ie the offer does not exist if we then say we're going to send them all to the EU; take them for our own citizens or don't take them at all?

An altruistic offer from a populist Tory government. Doesn't compute.

fly_agaric

Shelga wrote: »

The Sunday Times is reporting that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, have had "outline discussions" about the plan to offer 3.7m vaccines to us. Agree that that is not exactly a concrete offer. It also says that "Easter will be when we might be able to start offering vaccines to Ireland"- no further information on how many vaccines at Easter.

But what should the Irish government response be, if the offer does materialise, and is contingent on the vaccines being administered on the island, in order to have most impact? Ie the offer does not exist if we then say we're going to send them all to the EU; take them for our own citizens or don't take them at all?

It's very interesting + it's a tough one. Assuming EU orders for Apr/May pan out fully, it would matter if they are almost immediately available from the UK (most of them in next month or so?).

Taking them up will save lives here (and allow earlier opening up of the local economy) so it is very difficult to say no, but it is a choice with a high cost as regards future relations with the EU and other member states. Especially if those EU supplies don't actually pan out and other member states remain at low % of population vaccinated, while we head on up towards 50-70 % thanks to imports of millions of vaccines from UK outside the EU programme.

From what seems to have emerged re. UKs vaccine supply they are very reliant on imports of vaccine (from the EU ironically!).

At face value, EU Commission's export figures imply that at most ~1/3 of what they administered was produced in the UK if they aren't holding much back for a 2nd dose and using almost everything they have.

Given there could be issues importing more doses of AstraZeneca from the EU to boost their programme again, it implies there is not loads of vaccine sloshing about in the UK.

So diverting 3.7 million doses to us so fast will show down their programme a fair bit as regards giving 1st dose to any younger people, they will need to put what they have into 2nd doses.

If they do it, it really shows the geopolitical prize of wedging Ireland out of the EU (to secure a local sphere of influence and also harm the EU by removing another member) is considered vital to the UK govt. + supercedes local politics (more important than I thought it was).

If they do this I think the NI protocol is as dead as a dodo + will never be implemented fully and some time in future (very rapidly approaching) we will get to make a hard choice of a border with NI or ceasing to remain a full EU member + throwing our lot in with the UK again.

NeuralNetwork

There’s no option of “throwing our lot in with the U.K. again”. It would completely destroy our economy and we would be back to high emigration & being entirely irrelevant as FDI and domestic businesses would flow back out again and the U.K. itself is far from attractive these days - unstable, facing enormous economic risks & driven by populist English nationalism.

We’re also a founding member of the euro zone and disconnecting from that would be potentially catastrophic.

There’s also basically zero public or political support for any such move here. You’d have more likelihood of finding a euro sceptic audience almost anywhere except Ireland.

All this move would do is put Ireland into a domestic political mess and awkward place.

If the Tories think that doing that is a good idea from their perspective, they’re clearly deluded as the most likely outcome of unseating FG & FF is a coalition led by Sinn Fein.

Shelga

Shelga wrote: »

The Sunday Times is reporting that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Brandon Lewis, have had "outline discussions" about the plan to offer 3.7m vaccines to us. Agree that that is not exactly a concrete offer. It also says that "Easter will be when we might be able to start offering vaccines to Ireland"- no further information on how many vaccines at Easter.

But what should the Irish government response be, if the offer does materialise, and is contingent on the vaccines being administered on the island, in order to have most impact? Ie the offer does not exist if we then say we're going to send them all to the EU; take them for our own citizens or don't take them at all?

There is no plan to offer any vaccine, It's pure speculation.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56556125

It could be a "runner" for the UK government to offer coronavirus vaccines to the Republic of Ireland, Stormont's First Minister Arlene Foster has said.
Mrs Foster previously recommended the plan to Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a visit to Enniskillen in March.
Speaking to RTÉ she said she will be "making that point again" when they next meet.

A UK government spokesperson said there was currently no surplus of vaccine.
On Sunday, The Sunday Times reported that the UK was preparing to offer 3.7m vaccines to the Republic of Ireland.
It quoted a Cabinet source who said the idea was both "good politics" and would address "genuine public health concern in Northern Ireland".
With a much faster rollout of the vaccine north of the border, the newspaper said the offer would help Northern Ireland's efforts to ease lockdown measures.
In response to the article, a UK Government spokesperson said it will consider distributing a surplus of vaccine "as they become available".

'No specific plans'
BBC News NI understands the UK government expects to identify surplus supplies later this year.

They will only offer them up when they have finished using them at home, as it is likely the UK programme will complete earlier than the EU.

A Dub in Glasgo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

TBF, it is now accepted that the optimum gap between the first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 12 weeks. Others are typically about 4-6 weeks.

I got my first dose last Wednesday (AZ) and the vaccinator told me to expect the 2nd dose 6-8 weeks later (depending on supply)

J Mysterio

Vaccine stuff is typical 'divide and conquer' approach.

The UK want Ireland beholden to them so they can chip away at the NI protocol.

They are worried about their own imports on vaccines, they do not have 'spare' to offer.

Their percentage of fully vaccinated people is on par with us.

We should be getting all the vaccines we need in the next three months.

fly_agaric

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

There’s no option of “throwing our lot in with the U.K. again”. It would completely destroy our economy and we would be back to high emigration & being entirely irrelevant as FDI and domestic businesses would flow back out again and the U.K. itself is far from attractive these days - unstable, facing enormous economic risks & driven by populist English nationalism.

We’re also a founding member of the euro zone and disconnecting from that would be potentially catastrophic.

There’s also basically zero public or political support for any such move here. You’d have more likelihood of finding a euro sceptic audience almost anywhere except Ireland.

All this move would do is put Ireland into a domestic political mess and awkward place.

If the Tories think that doing that is a good idea from their perspective, they’re clearly deluded as the most likely outcome of unseating FG & FF is a coalition led by Sinn Fein.

Oh I agree fully (about what a disaster that would be), but if the UK govt. do this big geopolitical gesture (at expense of their own programme) + combine it with stubborn refusal to implement NI protocol (in the face of whatever retaliations are levelled by EU later on), it would be plain that the goal is to cause maximum problems/awkwardness as regards Ireland's relationship with the EU and other member states.

To destabalise us when opportunities present (like the slower EU vaccine rollout) and (very hopefully) wedge Ireland out of the EU at a later date.
I suppose if I were Machiavellian I'd say the govt. should take whatever's going but continue to put our own economic interests and future first (full EU membership, supporting actions taken against the UK for breaking agreements & even throwing up a goods border with NI later if it becomes needed).

Capt'n Midnight

The EU has exported 77m doses vs 62m used in the EU.

21m of the 30m doses used in the UK came from the EU.

This is pure spin as the UK is by a far and away a vaccine importer.

If the EU was playing the same games they'd announce an end to exporting vaccines seeing as how the UK now has a 'surplus'

NeuralNetwork

If we did get 3.7m vaccines from the U.K. it’s very likely we will end up forgoing 3.7m vaccines from the EU joint purchase.

It could well be of little benefit anyway. We’re unlikely to just purchase twice & the EU pre order a doses would likely get reallocated.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The EU has exported 77m doses vs 62m used in the EU.

21m of the 30m doses used in the UK came from the EU.

This is pure spin as the UK is by a far and away a vaccine importer.

If the EU was playing the same games they'd announce an end to exporting vaccines seeing as how the UK now has a 'surplus'

The "UK plan" does not exist, it's pure speculation.
They are using up every single dose they can get their hands on, there is no "spare" to export.

NeuralNetwork

I’m just wondering how long it would take them to get the 3.7 million made in EU and made in India labels off the packs.

We also may be unable to use doses produced in plants that aren’t EMA audited and inspected. There’s a whole quality assured, audited supply chain for drugs and medicines within the EMA framework that’s far more in-depth than just simple product approval. Like the FDA, the EMA has oversight of the whole process from production onwards.

There’s a huge amount of validation of production processes.

There are a lot of complications to this, such as potentially huge legal liabilities here.

This isn’t as simple as the PR.

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I got my first dose last Wednesday (AZ) and the vaccinator told me to expect the 2nd dose 6-8 weeks later (depending on supply)

That's strange. HSE standard practice for Astra Zeneca is 12 weeks. NHS website says the same as does Astra Zeneca's website.

Jizique

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I’m just wondering how long it would take them to get the 3.7 million made in EU and made in India labels off the packs.

We also may be unable to use doses produced in plants that aren’t EMA audited and inspected. There’s a whole quality assured, audited supply chain for drugs and medicines within the EMA framework that’s far more in-depth than just simple product approval. Like the FDA, the EMA has oversight of the whole process from production onwards.

There’s a huge amount of validation of production processes.

There are a lot of complications to this, such as potentially huge legal liabilities here.

This isn’t as simple as the PR.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1367817070008799235
In fairness, this “move” is not unexpected; the DUP leader bearing gifts for their “friends and partners” is a bit OTT

Sam Russell

Jizique wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1367817070008799235
In fairness, this “move” is not unexpected; the DUP leader bearing gifts for their “friends and partners” is a bit OTT

I do not think the DUP have any friends or partners.

A Dub in Glasgo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's strange. HSE standard practice for Astra Zeneca is 12 weeks. NHS website says the same as does Astra Zeneca's website.

Probably mistaken then

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Probably mistaken then

Probably - if it's the AZ. I know two people who got the AZ recently. One was told it would kick in after 10 days, the other was told 3 weeks. Doctors differ...

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

They will only offer them up when they have finished using them at home, as it is likely the UK programme will complete earlier than the EU.

I wouldn't even be sure about this btw. Despite being several weeks behind, there is a general expectation that EU rollout will very rapidly accelerate, starting as soon as this week, and fears that the UK programme may be forced to slow down somewhat, especially with AZ.

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Probably - if it's the AZ. I know two people who got the AZ recently. One was told it would kick in after 10 days, the other was told 3 weeks. Doctors differ...

Myself and the missus have gotten our first dose and we were both told 3 weeks.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The "UK plan" does not exist, it's pure speculation.
They are using up every single dose they can get their hands on, there is no "spare" to export.

We know that.

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Myself and the missus have gotten our first dose and we were both told 3 weeks.

Yeah that's the official line.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

I do not think the DUP have any friends or partners.

Boris Johnson has loads. 445 million apparently.

Jizique

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Boris Johnson has loads. 445 million apparently.

That’s the point - the DUP are trying to show how reasonable and fair they are to people the hate passionately, just as Johnson is bull****ting when he talks about his friends in Europe; they would both so everything to destroy the EU, and if not, ripping Ireland from the single market would be a great second prize

Professor Moriarty

Jizique wrote: »

That’s the point - the DUP are trying to show how reasonable and fair they are to people the hate passionately, just as Johnson is bull****ting when he talks about his friends in Europe; they would both so everything to destroy the EU, and if not, ripping Ireland from the single market would be a great second prize

Agreed except that ripping Ireland away would only serve the purpose of damaging the EU. They don't give a damn about Ireland other than that.

Lemming

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I got my first dose last Wednesday (AZ) and the vaccinator told me to expect the 2nd dose 6-8 weeks later (depending on supply)

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's strange. HSE standard practice for Astra Zeneca is 12 weeks. NHS website says the same as does Astra Zeneca's website.

I got my first AZ jab yesterday and was told sometime around 11 weeks for the follow-up as I have to bring a card back with me for the second jab.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Probably - if it's the AZ. I know two people who got the AZ recently. One was told it would kick in after 10 days, the other was told 3 weeks. Doctors differ...

As an aside that is not relevant to this discussion, the vaccine is already knocking lumps out of me. Most of what they list as 'very common' and a couple of the 'uncommon' side effects I am or have experienced already. There is a category in between listed as 'common' that I seem to have skipped thus far.

Back to politics, Ireland accepting "spare" doses (at considerably markup I fully expect) may play well to the domestic audience in the short term but it puts the country in a very precarious position with regards the rest of the member states if there are any more vaccine delivery issues within the bloc. I would expect any good will, support, and understanding regards the NI protocol will take a severe bruising. In short PM has it right above with his comments regards alturistic Tory governments; "Never trust a Tory" to make use of a well worn expression in England, anywhere north of the Watford Gap.

Capt'n Midnight

Jizique wrote: »

mobile.twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1367817070008799235
In fairness, this “move” is not unexpected; the DUP leader bearing gifts for their “friends and partners” is a bit OTT

The UK has imported 21 million vaccines from the EU.

The possibility of re-exporting a fraction of that at some unspecified date IF the stars align is just kite flying or a distraction.