Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

forgottenhills wrote: »

Interestingly what is not often reported is that approx 1000 EU financial services companies have applied to set up operations in the UK, suggesting that the death of London as a financial services center may have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56155531

I've never been of the opinion that London is going to somehow die as a result of Brexit. At worst, I think the City is looking at a substantial but entirely surviveable financial hit and that's the worst case scenario. London is a global city which is why it'll continue to be wealthy. The educated and highly skilled people who work in the services sector won't be the ones who pay the price for Brexit save for those who might have to relocate.

johnnyskeleton

forgottenhills wrote: »

This is a sign of the current tit for tat sniping going on between the UK and EU over the financial services area and talks over equivalence. The report goes on to state that 7,600 jobs have left London for the EU, not a huge amount relatively speaking although the trading and subsequent taxes lost may be a different matter.

Interestingly what is not often reported is that approx 1000 EU financial services companies have applied to set up operations in the UK, suggesting that the death of London as a financial services center may have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56155531

There is a difference between these two sources of information. Jobs leaving London is a different type of stat to companies applying to set up operations.

The companies applying to set up an operation in the UK are doing so because they want to sell products into the UK market. The problem that London faces is that, to date, they have been a financial services market not just for the UK market, but for the whole EU.

So yes, UK companies will set up in the EU, and EU companies will set up in the UK. This is how they will trade in the opposite market, going forward. But the crucial Brexit fallout, i.e. the thing that needs to be highlighted as a positive or negative aspect of Brexit, is how much of the business that was previously done in London in respect of the wider EU market will now be done elsewhere in the EU. That's why the job losses are a concern.

CelticRambler

forgottenhills wrote: »

Interestingly what is not often reported is that approx 1000 EU financial services companies have applied to set up operations in the UK, suggesting that the death of London as a financial services center may have been greatly exaggerated.

No-one ever said that London would die; the prediction was - and still is - that it will lose its advantage as a gateway to the Single Market, and find itself squabbling with New York or Singapore for global financial trade.

Chances are it'll remain bigger than any one European city, but that's because we're already seeing the market (and companies behind them) create sector-specific centres in different cities across the bloc.

redcup342

forgottenhills wrote: »

This is a sign of the current tit for tat sniping going on between the UK and EU over the financial services area and talks over equivalence. The report goes on to state that 7,600 jobs have left London for the EU, not a huge amount relatively speaking although the trading and subsequent taxes lost may be a different matter.

Interestingly what is not often reported is that approx 1000 EU financial services companies have applied to set up operations in the UK, suggesting that the death of London as a financial services center may have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56155531

7600 jobs vs 1000 eu financial service Companies is not comparable.

One entity could have multiple companies for different services/products it deals in.

Also I would suspect many of them are "International House" addresses i.e. office that offers an address for the purposes of a Business.

pixelburp

CelticRambler wrote: »

[..]
Ohhhh ... well, I'm guessing that arrangement has been in place since long before Jan 1st 2021, so no Brexit benefit there. On the other hand, if he has any left over, Mr. Hinton can no longer sell that French oak to the French from his company in north-west England without it attracting tariffs, seeing as it has been substantially transformed outside of the UK.

(I'm guessing it makes economic sense to ship French timber to the far side of the world and back again because the Chinese can reprocess it without having to worry about things like labour laws, health-and-safety, or environmental protection? Could be a gap in the market, there, for Brexit Britain ... :rolleyes: )

Apparently, this is incredibly common in these days of trivial global supply chains. Last time I read of this behaviour, it was in relation to Danish bacon: in that case, companies shipped their pork products from Copenhagen or wherever, over to some factory in China; whereupon it was chopped, processed and packaged, then shipped back to Denmark - and importantly, still qualified as Danish produce. These are all the small bleeds UK businesses will suffer from, and items the Man on the Street doesn't think or care about, yet will have a significant impact on the bottom line.

dogbert27

redcup342 wrote: »

7600 jobs vs 1000 eu financial service Companies is not comparable.

One entity could have multiple companies for different services/products it deals in.

Also I would suspect many of them are "International House" addresses i.e. office that offers an address for the purposes of a Business.

This is my suspicion too. These 1000 companies will not be generating thousands of jobs

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

How capable of following through with these demands is the Bank of England I wonder? It's not a stance that'll win it friends among financiers:

Not.

The BoE isn’t in any position to dictate to respective national regulators of EU member states, what level of capitalisation is deemed safe for a bank or similar structure.

The BoE can certainly opine (and even try to ‘enforce’ within the jurisdiction of the UK) about the matter. But if e.g. our local CSSF tells e.g. Lloyds that it must capitalise its proposed Luxembourgish office by €x, then either Lloyds meets that capitalisation threshold, or the CSSF doesn’t grant the authorisation of establishment and Lloyds can swing.

So, erm, well...file under ‘sour grapes’ and I expect that this is about the sum total of that BoE ‘policy’ (because you can be sure that e.g. Lloyds would find a way to exfiltrate the requisite capitalisation from the U.K. one way or the other).

But at term, I’d expect this BoE pronouncement to be a warning shot preceding a tsunami of capital-controlling measures, wherein -as usual with all things Brexit- it’s the small guys who will be mostly impacted, e.g. QROPs stopped being an option a while back, and I expect that to get worse over time as the UK keeps going down the socioeconomic tubes.

E.g. in the context of recent posts about a UK brain drain, coercive tax policies disincentivizing moving out of the UK: I’m old enough to remember the French government enacting such measures in the 90s to try and stem the ongoing brain drain, which implemented a two-tier personal taxation regime for nationals according to domestic or foreign residence, wherein foreign-residing taxpayers were ‘targeted’ and taxed from the first €0.01and barred from claiming any relief bands or thresholds whatsoever.

NeuralNetwork

dogbert27 wrote: »

This is my suspicion too. These 1000 companies will not be generating thousands of jobs

That cuts both ways. Most of those companies will just reorganise structures to work around changing regulatory circumstances. Where jobs go will be determined more by where they’re required to be by regulation.

You’ll inevitably have companies that now need some kind of presence in London and you’ll have companies that need presence in the EU.

The issue in comparison with NY and London is that London coils have been the EU’s New York - global hub for a large economic bloc of 28 EU countries or 50 US states. Effectively now London is more like Singapore or perhaps Zürich, a stand alone financial hub.

rock22

On the UK giving us spare vaccines, The UK Ambassador has , just now(18:15) on RTE, clarified that they don't have any surplus right now and he is not responsible for news stories in Sunday Times.
Their priority is UK citizens and then donating to third world countries

Professor Moriarty

rock22 wrote: »

On the UK giving us spare vaccines, The UK Ambassador has , just now(18:15) on RTE, clarified that they don't have any surplus right now and he is not responsible for news stories in Sunday Times.
Their priority is UK citizens and then donating to third world countries

That lets the government off the hook.

wexfordman2

Just an opinion, but if you had a DB pension in the UK, and were looking to draw it down in 10 to 15 years, would you be looking to pull it out or hold firm ?

NeuralNetwork

From what I can see the U.K. government didn’t make any such suggestion, but the press ran with it.

Arleen Foster went flying a kite about it, and I think to be fair, her motivation seemed to be genuine and about speeding up recovery in cross border areas. While she may be the DUP leader, she’s also representing a border constituency and is at the end of the day a Fermanagh woman.

Where I think it went wrong is in the assumption that the U.K. has a very strong, independent, supply chain. That’s simply not the case and they are putting every effort into ensuring domestic supplies, largely based on imports. They’ve done well at shopping and have been very aggressive at ensuring they got supplies, largely at the expense of EU neighbours by going in early, elbowing everyone out of the way.

There’s also an assumption that the EU supply chain is weak. That’s also not true. It’s just been relatively slower to coordinate and ramp up & some of that has been to do with choice of vaccines and pot luck, while a lot of it has to do with primarily American vaccine nationalism having placed the global supply burden for western vaccines onto EU based plants.

If any accusation could be levied at the EU it’s that they believed the world was a nicer place than it actually is and assumed cooperation that didn’t materialise.

Had the US and EU worked together on this, given their huge biotech capabilities which are in reality deeply interconnected, the whole programme might have been sped up, with far reaching improvements for many countries beyond both of those blocs, but that was impossible with Trump, so we are where we are.

Really what you’re looking at is the application of America First while the EU doesn’t have that kind of executive power centralised in one person or institution, or even state and continued to engage in global trade and multilateralism and has philosophical stance of promoting rules based international trade and open markets.

I think the U.K. vaccine exports are a moot point. They don’t have enough capacity to be a signifiant exporter of these at this time, even if the R&D for AstraZeneca took place at Oxford, the production is entirely specialist contract manufacturing.

If anything, it’s a clear demonstration of interconnected global supply chains in action and why throwing up borders isn’t really practical and can’t work in a world where no one in reality can monopolise a complex technology that’s driven at an international level.

These politics belong in the history books and the 19th and early 20th century.

PeadarCo

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ten-eu-states-to-halt-extraditions-to-uk-following-brexit-1.4523762?mode=amp

In more Brexit news 10 EU countries including France and Germany will refuse extradition requests to the UK. While this probably isn't big news it will make the life of British police more awkward in certain situations. Not having access to European arrest warrant will make prosecuting trans national criminal enterprises more difficult.

Peregrinus

PeadarCo wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ten-eu-states-to-halt-extraditions-to-uk-following-brexit-1.4523762?mode=amp

In more Brexit news 10 EU countries including France and Germany will refuse extradition requests to the UK. While this probably isn't big news it will make the life of British police more awkward in certain situations. Not having access to European arrest warrant will make prosecuting trans national criminal enterprises more difficult.

They'll only refuse extradition requests for their own citizens. Significant difference.

rock22

Another Brexit fallout,

France doesn't recognise UK driving licences at the moment , possibly causing chaos for UK residents in France. It also seems there is a similar issue in Italy . Article in Guardian mentions both.

These are the hundreds of little benefits of EU membership that were never appreciated by those who brought about Brexit .

dogbert27

rock22 wrote: »

Another Brexit fallout,

France doesn't recognise UK driving licences at the moment , possibly causing chaos for UK residents in France. It also seems there is a similar issue in Italy . Article in Guardian mentions both.

These are the hundreds of little benefits of EU membership that were never appreciated by those who brought about Brexit .

I think everyone who now complains of the changes to their lives should be asked which way they voted. It would be interesting to see how the people who voted for Brexit would try to explain why it is now still a good idea.

PeadarCo

Peregrinus wrote: »

They'll only refuse extradition requests for their own citizens. Significant difference.

I understand but its another impact of Brexit. A small one but it will make prosecutions of serious crimes committed by certain nationalities in the UK more difficult.

Silent Running

rock22 wrote: »

Another Brexit fallout,

France doesn't recognise UK driving licences at the moment , possibly causing chaos for UK residents in France. It also seems there is a similar issue in Italy . Article in Guardian mentions both.

These are the hundreds of little benefits of EU membership that were never appreciated by those who brought about Brexit .

When I lived in Spain there was an ongoing battle between British drivers and the Guardia Civil about driving licences. The British waved their licences around proclaiming them as European licences. The Guardia Civil begged to differ.

Now that they definitely aren't European licences, I can see the Guardia Civil having a field day with the British Expats Immigrants.

Peregrinus

PeadarCo wrote: »

I understand but its another impact of Brexit. A small one but it will make prosecutions of serious crimes committed by certain nationalities in the UK more difficult.

Yes it will. But what it doesn't do is enable British criminals to flee to Germany, France, etc and then thumb their noses at the UK authorities. That would be a much bigger problem.

Leroy42

dogbert27 wrote: »

I think everyone who now complains of the changes to their lives should be asked which way they voted. It would be interesting to see how the people who voted for Brexit would try to explain why it is now still a good idea.

Not only which way they voted in the ref itself, but why the didn't kick up more a fuss about the clear abuse of the vote by the likes of the ERG.

Remember, this version of Brexit bears no resemblance to what was actually promised. It is as close to hard Brexit as it is possible to get while still having a deal.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not only which way they voted in the ref itself, but why the didn't kick up more a fuss about the clear abuse of the vote by the likes of the ERG.

Remember, this version of Brexit bears no resemblance to what was actually promised. It is as close to hard Brexit as it is possible to get while still having a deal.

Nitpick: It isn't close to hard Brexit; it is actually hard Brexit.

The term "hard Brexit" wasn't coined to describe a no-deal Brexit. We have the term "no-deal Brexit" for that. "hard Brexit" describes a Brexit in which the UK leaves the EU and doesn't negotiate any alternative arrangement to participate in the Single Market (like Norway) or the Customs Union (like Turkey). That's exactly the Brexit the UK has.

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes it will. But what it doesn't do is enable British criminals to flee to Germany, France, etc and then thumb their noses at the UK authorities. That would be a much bigger problem.

Well, yes ... but no: British criminals could flee to the Schengen Zone, but like any other tourist, they could/would be thrown out after 90 days, no extradition necessary.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, yes ... but no: British criminals could flee to the Schengen Zone, but like any other tourist, they could/would be thrown out after 90 days, no extradition necessary.

They could leave the Schengen Zone and go elsewhere; they don't have to return to the UK. Or, depending on their circumstances, they could apply for a visa permitting them to stay in the Schengen Zone for longer.

Back in the day, remember, before the UK joined the EU, it was common for UK crims to hang out in Spain or Portugal, where one way or another they could remain for years, even though they had no rights as citizens of a member state. So it would be a concern if that situation could arise again.

But it's academic, it seems, since it's only their own citizens that the countries concerned will not be extraditing.

NeuralNetwork

It’s unfortunate and there is a human impact to all of this. As people begin to encounter needing to interact with officialdom be it to renew expired documents, access public services, transact property sales, seek employment and so on, that’s often the first time they’re going to encounter barriers due to being non EU nationals.

The Tories underplayed all of this or ignored it and I think they absolutely deserve the electoral fallout when it comes, but it seems there’s also a big element in the U.K. itself who are quite happy to abandon the needs of those people. There’s a media who will lash out at it being “so unfair” and that this is Europe being vindictive or vengeful when this is precisely the position they put EU nationals in in the U.K. It was flagged as a huge issue by everyone who knew anything about it, but they were all dismissed as part of “project fear”

yagan

Peregrinus wrote: »

Back in the day, remember, before the UK joined the EU, it was common for UK crims to hang out in Spain or Portugal, where one way or another they could remain for years, even though they had no rights as citizens of a member state. So it would be a concern if that situation could arise again.

Nothing compared to the amount of Brits that would arrive in following decades and as they age if they're not legally resident then they're a burden on the state so deportations will be a cost saving.

Loads of Brits who've lived there for years are heading back before Deportation Day as they were never registered, preferring to live cash in hand.

One of those, Anthony Cook, tells of a great 7 years in Spain, but now he’s on his way home, he told Global247news: “The Spanish dream is over for me, it’s time to go back to Cardiff, it’s been a blast but the new regulations have made it impossible to stay, I don’t have enough credentials to become a resident, it was so easy before, get your funds in from the UK, do a bit of cash in hand around the likes of Benidorm and bob was your uncle, but that’s all changed now – hey, don’t be fooled thousands of Brits in some guise or other have been doing the same thing, especially in the entertainment industry!

Even with their marching orders Brexiters still think Spain needs undocumented tax shy brits.

Another returning at Malaga airport today was Shaun Cromber who despite voting for Britain to leave the EU, didn’t believe it would end his Spanish lifestyle, he said: ” Yes I voted out, but I didn’t realise it would come to this, my application has been rejected and we are on our way home – the wife is in tears, she’s distraught if I’m honest and I’m not too happy at the prospect of returning back to the UK.

“I’ve loved living on the Costa del Sol and after 5 years can’t believe it has come to this, we applied but got rejected and so have no choice, although long term I think the Spanish will regret chucking us out of Spain”

https://global247news.com/2021/03/26/tears-flow-for-brits-as-they-head-home-to-avoid-being-deported-as-illegals-in-spain/

From the Spanish side it's definitely cheaper to deport petty criminal tax dodgers hiding in the British ghettos. No need to establish criminal cases when simply being there over 90s days is an offence.

How fitting that April 1st be the new D Day!

NeuralNetwork

The other issue is that a lot of people who cashed in properly at a market peak in the U.K. in urban areas and used that to buy property in relatively rural Spain or elsewhere to take advantage of weather and lower doses of living may get quite a hard landing when they go back to the U.K. as they won’t be able to duplicate their lifestyle in Spain or elsewhere, nor will they be able to duplicate their lifestyle in the U.K. before they retired.

A lot of people may find property out of reach of their budget, or they will have to move to quite far flung places, which is an entirely different prospect if your primary motivation for moving was the weather. The cost of living is higher.

Effectively they’ll have spent a lot of their capital and won’t have it on their return.

That could translate into political pressure on the Tories, or ferment as bitterness towards Europe, even if it’s been self inflicted, or they could just quietly fade off the agenda.

Lumen

I don't think those Brit retirement ghettos in Spain are necessarily doomed regardless of whether their ex-pat inhabitants managed to get the paperwork in or not, but their future depends on whether they can appeal to a slightly wealthier demographic.

The new requirements are that you have to show income of £30k/year for a couple (£2.5k for the first, then £500 for each subsequent family member) (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55617849). Average retired couple in the UK gets about £474 per week (£25k/year) after housing costs (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878009/pensioners-incomes-series-2018-19-report.pdf).

So it does suggest that if people still want to go there, plenty ought to be able to afford it.

As a member of the advocado-munching liberal metropolitan elite the prospect of eating fish & chips under a union flag horrifies me, but there's no accounting for taste.

NeuralNetwork

I lived in rural France and one of the biggest issues was lack of any awareness of « priorité de droit ».

In French driving rules and throughout the continent, where applicable (basically anywhere that isn’t a main road and has priority signs) you are supposed to yield to traffic entering from the right.

If you’re in a town, this means you let people out and they will assume you are going to do so.

British (and indeed many Irish) drivers don’t know this as assume that all French drivers are crazy maniacs driving out in front of them, while the French drivers assume the British drive extremely aggressively cutting people off. I’ve seen it result in stand offs and side on collisions.

I can’t see the enforcement of rules being any different after Brexit. Nothing with regard to any of that will have changed.

From a tourism point of view, other than a few minor details around insurance and so on, very little will have changed.

The big issue will be around notions of packing up and buying a fixer upper in the middle of nowhere. Those days aren’t gone entirely, but for many U.K. citizens they’ll be a lot more complicated.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't just paste links here without at least giving some sort of a summary and/or opinion. Thanks. A post has been removed.

ambro25

rock22 wrote: »

Another Brexit fallout,

France doesn't recognise UK driving licences at the moment , possibly causing chaos for UK residents in France. It also seems there is a similar issue in Italy . Article in Guardian mentions both.

These are the hundreds of little benefits of EU membership that were never appreciated by those who brought about Brexit .

<grumbles>

Got the Mrs to swap her UK license for a Lux one (rather than just ‘register’ her UK license with Lux authorities) at the same time she did her WA right-to-stay application last year...

...but now we’re looking at buying bricks and moving over to France next door.

We might just dodge that curveball if she can keep/use the Lux driving license. But still, yet another curveball on the horizon, and yet more admin/rules to look up.

<sigh>