Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

Two separate articles about the effects of Brexit:
The Guardian are reporting that garden centres in the UK are facing stock shortages in terms of both plants, tools and garden furniture. The impact from Brexit is then further compunded by both Covid and the Suez delay.
One importer apparently lost their plants following a cancelled flight and then a delay in having them inspected.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/mar/28/all-is-not-rosy-for-uk-gardens-as-brexit-hits-supplies-and-covid-hikes-demand

The second is about a PhD student from the UK wanting to study in Sweden but ended up beign deported back to Denmark (where they had been living) as they did "not have a valid visa or valid residence permit".

None of this would have happened had I been an EU citizen. Now, being assessed as a third-country national, meant I required extra documentation.

A previously easy process has been complicated with bureaucratic barriers and a price tag, put in place by our own government. Strangely, the Tories proudly celebrated the end to freedom of movement, ignoring the fact that freedom of movement has not come to an end. Millions of people across Europe retain that right. It is sadly only the British who have had this freedom removed.

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/deported-from-sweden/

KildareP

dogbert27 wrote: »

I think everyone who now complains of the changes to their lives should be asked which way they voted. It would be interesting to see how the people who voted for Brexit would try to explain why it is now still a good idea.

I'd expect it will be put down to the vindictive EU punishing the UK, as opposed to a direct consequence of Brexit.

So the theme throughout much of Brexit Twitter is anyway, I've often seen the argument that the rules worked on 31st December 2020 so why shouldn't they work on 1st January 2021?

That the UK is now voluntarily a third-country and is so subject to the very different set of rules as every other third-country doesn't matter, the EU should in effect make blanket exceptions for the third-country UK to continue operating within the existing rules of EU membership (well, the ones that the UK liked at least).

dogbert27

ambro25 wrote: »

<grumbles>

Got the Mrs to swap her UK license for a Lux one (rather than just ‘register’ her UK license with Lux authorities) at the same time she did her WA right-to-stay application last year...

...but now we’re looking at buying bricks and moving over to France next door.

We might just dodge that curveball if she can keep/use the Lux driving license. But still, yet another curveball on the horizon, and yet more admin/rules to look up.

<sigh>

The Lux driving licence is an EU licence so there should be no issue to keep using it

Nody

ambro25 wrote: »

We might just dodge that curveball if she can keep/use the Lux driving license. But still, yet another curveball on the horizon, and yet more admin/rules to look up.

It would be recognized as it's an EU driving license.

If you hold a driving license issued by a member state of the European Union, the European Economic Area or Switzerland: these licenses are valid in France indefinitely.

Taken from here. The only change will be if you live in France once it expires she'll need to go get it renewed in France (changed a few years ago that all renewals are done in the country you live rather than the country you originally got it from).

redcup342

yagan wrote: »

https://global247news.com/2021/03/26/tears-flow-for-brits-as-they-head-home-to-avoid-being-deported-as-illegals-in-spain/

From the Spanish side it's definitely cheaper to deport petty criminal tax dodgers hiding in the British ghettos. No need to establish criminal cases when simply being there over 90s days is an offence.

How fitting that April 1st be the new D Day!

Global247news is fake news website and you'll notice all the tabloids just referenced this website, the author of the article "Mario Rissola" doesn't exist

Essentially it's just to get likes on facebook.

The only ones that bothered to investigate was the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/29/britons-in-spain-face-three-month-visa-free-limit-under-post-brexit-rules

murphaph

Silent Running wrote: »

When I lived in Spain there was an ongoing battle between British drivers and the Guardia Civil about driving licences. The British waved their licences around proclaiming them as European licences. The Guardia Civil begged to differ.

Now that they definitely aren't European licences, I can see the Guardia Civil having a field day with the British Expats Immigrants.

I suspect it's because the UK driving licence photocard was only half the licence. The complete driving licence used to consist of photocard + paper counterpart (where endorsements would be entered). It seems from googling that the UK abolished the daft counterpart idea in 2015.

There shouldn't have been that many Brits holding British driving licences if they were legally resident there. Old pre-harmonisation licences would not have been valid once people became resident in the other EU country and should have been exchanged for a local licence at the time. Harmonised licences all had 10 year expiry dates and once they expired they should also have been exchanged for a local EU one (this was what happened to me after my Irish licence expired in Germany) so only people who have been living in the EU for less than ten years should have been affected and even then many or most of them would have seen their licence expire after moving over in the last 10 years.

In reality we now know that very many Brits retained a postal address in the UK and despite making the other EU country their focal point, living there most if not all of the time, they never registered as residents (so never paid Spanish or French income taxes) and just pretended they were on holiday. This was illegal and there are seemingly tens if not hundreds of thousands of Brits in this category.

NeuralNetwork

They can really only do that for so long and the Daily Express isn’t indicative of most of the U.K.

You’re already seeing a lot of people being confronted with significant problems and most of them are rightly blaming Brexit, not imagining some vindictive revenge conspiracy.

Whether the practical reality will drive politics is another question though. A lot of those in favour of Brexit see this kind of thing as a necessary cost for a notional gain.

The big question is will they continue to be able to sell that message or will people start to tire of it and change politics.

Brexit was delivered by an unimpressive majority, in a highly distorted debate full of lies and deceit. It’s been latterly misrepresented as if it was a landslide majority in favour and that somehow it’s the most important vote in British history. Neither of which is true.

I don’t think we will see this really shake out until 2022 when the covid 19 cloud has lifted and we can begin to see what’s actually going on.

I suspect the future may be a softening of Brexit. It’s very unlikely to be reversed now. I don’t think that’s even possible or would be acceptable to the EU. So at best I think we are looking at a comprehensive trade deal in a few years.

murphaph

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

They can really only do that for so long and the Daily Express isn’t indicative of most of the U.K.

You’re already seeing a lot of people being confronted with significant problems and most of them are rightly blaming Brexit, not imagining some vindictive revenge conspiracy.

Whether the practical reality will drive politics is another question though. A lot of those in favour of Brexit see this kind of thing as a necessary cost for a notional gain.

The big question is will they continue to be able to sell that message or will people start to tire of it and change politics.

Brexit was delivered by an unimpressive majority, in a highly distorted debate full of lies and deceit. It’s been latterly misrepresented as if it was a landslide majority in favour and that somehow it’s the most important vote in British history. Neither of which is true.

I don’t think we will see this really shake out until 2022 when the covid 19 cloud has lifted and we can begin to see what’s actually going on.

I suspect the future may be a softening of Brexit. It’s very unlikely to be reversed now. I don’t think that’s even possible or would be acceptable to the EU. So at best I think we are looking at a comprehensive trade deal in a few years.

I'd say the whole vaccination thing has set back any "soft reversal" by many years. The Tories will be using this in election campaigns for a generation (even though the EU will likely catch up in a couple of months and have lower deaths per capita and lower numbers of long covid sufferers when all is said and done)

The EU would be very wary of any sudden moves now anyway. Trust has evaporated. Nothing along those lines will happen under this government and the British people have lapped the vaccine nationalism stuff up. I see loads of remainers who appear to be turning leave now.

Silent Running

murphaph wrote: »

I suspect it's because the UK driving licence photocard was only half the licence. The complete driving licence used to consist of photocard + paper counterpart (where endorsements would be entered). It seems from googling that the UK abolished the daft counterpart idea in 2015.

There shouldn't have been that many Brits holding British driving licences if they were legally resident there. Old pre-harmonisation licences would not have been valid once people became resident in the other EU country and should have been exchanged for a local licence at the time. Harmonised licences all had 10 year expiry dates and once they expired they should also have been exchanged for a local EU one (this was what happened to me after my Irish licence expired in Germany) so only people who have been living in the EU for less than ten years should have been affected and even then many or most of them would have seen their licence expire after moving over in the last 10 years.

In reality we now know that very many Brits retained a postal address in the UK and despite making the other EU country their focal point, living there most if not all of the time, they never registered as residents (so never paid Spanish or French income taxes) and just pretended they were on holiday. This was illegal and there are seemingly tens if not hundreds of thousands of Brits in this category.

In my experience on the Costa del Sol for 12 years, the vast majority of British there were of the permanent holiday variety. I had an aunt that had been there over 25 years... still driving a Brit registered car, replaced every few years, no Residencia, no taxes paid, smoking cigarettes smuggled out of Gibraltar... etc. I can't see those type of people being missed by the Spanish.

I registered when I arrived, along with my family. I still remember my NIE number by heart.

I moved back to Ireland in 2014, and at that time the Guardia Civil were starting to come down heavily on the Brit bangers that most of the immigrants from Britain were driving. They would have been completely illegal back in Bilghty and were insured by a dodgy Gibraltar company.

Part of the problem, as I understand it, was that the Brit licence was valid until 70 years of age, while the EU model licence used in Spain needed to be renewed every 10 years. The other part was that the British immigrants didn't want anything to do with the Spanish system.

Igotadose

Silent Running wrote: »

The other part was that the British immigrants didn't want anything to do with the Spanish system.

TBF, to learn to drive on the opposite side of the road, especially for an older person, isn't easy. We did it in our mid-50's when we relocated to Ireland from the US, and it was one of the most difficult things we've ever done. However, we were planning to live here full time and it was necessary.

CelticRambler

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Having driven in France next to various ingress points from uk, I do hope French come down on British drivers and not just for licensing, very common to be blinded by rhd cars with no sticker for headlights as per rules (or car with adjustable light alignment)

To be fair, there are probably ten times as many French-registered cars driving around with single/wrongly adjusted headlights. I know that I was inadvertently one of them ... for 15 years (and the vehicle got through several contrôles techniques in that time)!

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I don’t think we will see this really shake out until 2022 when the covid 19 cloud has lifted and we can begin to see what’s actually going on.

I would go so far as to say that the pandemic will accentuate the fallout. Back in the before-times, I forecast that all of the "teething problems" - 90-day travel limits, customs checks, blue-passport lines, non-recognition of licenses, etc, etc - would be celebrated as signs of Britain's new-found independence. But the tolerance associated with that euphoria won't last into 2022.

Instead, next year will (presumably) see the introduction of the twice postponed ETIAS visa waiver, which will apply to every British citizen desperate to enjoy a post-Covid break. In addition, the first post-pandemic year of travel will undoubtedly see quite number of frequent travellers exceed their 90-in-180-days limits and/or find themselves faced with a firm non/nein/no/ne when they try to do something they remember being so easy before.

Should this come to pass, it'll be in the second half of 2022, and all through 2023 - just as the next GB election cycle starts to get into gear. Alongside that, should there be job losses associated with export-constrained business in the UK, they'll be reaching their peak about then too. I reckon 22-23 will be a real Winter of Discontent in England.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

To be fair, there are probably ten times as many French-registered cars driving around with single/wrongly adjusted headlights. I know that I was inadvertently one of them ... for 15 years (and the vehicle got through several contrôles techniques in that time)!



I would go so far as to say that the pandemic will accentuate the fallout. Back in the before-times, I forecast that all of the "teething problems" - 90-day travel limits, customs checks, blue-passport lines, non-recognition of licenses, etc, etc - would be celebrated as signs of Britain's new-found independence. But the tolerance associated with that euphoria won't last into 2022.

Instead, next year will (presumably) see the introduction of the twice postponed ETIAS visa waiver, which will apply to every British citizen desperate to enjoy a post-Covid break. In addition, the first post-pandemic year of travel will undoubtedly see quite number of frequent travellers exceed their 90-in-180-days limits and/or find themselves faced with a firm non/nein/no/ne when they try to do something they remember being so easy before.

Should this come to pass, it'll be in the second half of 2022, and all through 2023 - just as the next GB election cycle starts to get into gear. Alongside that, should there be job losses associated with export-constrained business in the UK, they'll be reaching their peak about then too. I reckon 22-23 will be a real Winter of Discontent in England.

Unfortunately, the Tory press has much of the electorate by the throat. So, when these problems begin to affect people, the Tory press will blame the evil EU. The Tory populists will point out how these problems are proof that the UK is much better off because of Brexit, given the evil nature of the EU. Starmer will remain mute as usual because reasons.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unfortunately, the Tory press has much of the electorate by the throat. So, when these problems begin to affect people, the Tory press will blame the evil EU.

Hmmm ... I dunno. I think the "blame the evil EU" excuse will start to wear thin soon enough. That's what I meant when I said that this first year (especially summer travel period) could be written off as a price worth paying for the New and Glorious Global Britain.

But just as people got tired of the endless Brexit negotiations and were happy to "get Brexit done" I think they'll get tired of being told that everything's the fault of the EU when they, on a personal level, are not seeing any Brexit dividend.

Sure, you'll have those who say nothing is any different, because they'll go on holidays to places that are desperate for British tourist money and will make their arrival (and departure) as smooth as possible; but you'll have a hell of lot of others who had plans to move and/or retire and/or do business and/or study and/or work throughout the EU and who remember that it wasn't like this before.

I'd hazard a guess that the pie-and-a-pint types who take two weeks in Benidorm, and notice no difference, are not hardcore Tory voters; whereas the retirees and business classes who find their lives are changed are probably more Blue than Red.

NeuralNetwork

murphaph wrote: »

I'd say the whole vaccination thing has set back any "soft reversal" by many years. The Tories will be using this in election campaigns for a generation (even though the EU will likely catch up in a couple of months and have lower deaths per capita and lower numbers of long covid sufferers when all is said and done)

The EU would be very wary of any sudden moves now anyway. Trust has evaporated. Nothing along those lines will happen under this government and the British people have lapped the vaccine nationalism stuff up. I see loads of remainers who appear to be turning leave now.

There’s still a lot of COVID risk with variants. None of us should be assuming that’s over until it’s over.

The vaccine was genuinely a success story for them but it followed on from an absolutely abysmal handling of it to that point and one that played a huge part in triggering our Christmas spike too.

The big concern I have is the U.K. may run into vaccine cockiness due to someone declaring this thing beaten before it’s really proven, because that’s politically expedient.

We all need to roll back to normality but we need to do it step by step, testing the reaction of the virus as we go.

Boris has, as ever, made huge promises.

redcup342

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hmmm ... I dunno. I think the "blame the evil EU" excuse will start to wear thin soon enough. That's what I meant when I said that this first year (especially summer travel period) could be written off as a price worth paying for the New and Glorious Global Britain.

But just as people got tired of the endless Brexit negotiations and were happy to "get Brexit done" I think they'll get tired of being told that everything's the fault of the EU when they, on a personal level, are not seeing any Brexit dividend.

Sure, you'll have those who say nothing is any different, because they'll go on holidays to places that are desperate for British tourist money and will make their arrival (and departure) as smooth as possible; but you'll have a hell of lot of others who had plans to move and/or retire and/or do business and/or study and/or work throughout the EU and who remember that it wasn't like this before.

I'd hazard a guess that the pie-and-a-pint types who take two weeks in Benidorm, and notice no difference, are not hardcore Tory voters; whereas the retirees and business classes who find their lives are changed are probably more Blue than Red.

The Media can only spread so much false information.

There are no "new rules" or very few at least.

These are pre-existing rules for third country Nationals.

The reason it stings now is because they had something and it was taken away. and they never realised they had it because the took it for granted.

ambro25

Igotadose wrote: »

TBF, to learn to drive on the opposite side of the road, especially for an older person, isn't easy. We did it in our mid-50's when we relocated to Ireland from the US, and it was one of the most difficult things we've ever done. However, we were planning to live here full time and it was necessary.

We’ve kept 2 of the 3 ex-UK RHDs and driven them here for 3 years with no bother, and I bought a LHD 2 years ago as a present to self. We each swap between the RHD and LHD cars every other day, with no bother.

The hardest bit has been getting, and then maintaining, the older RHDers to local MOT/NCT standards, which must be the most stringent going in Western Europe (I’m afraid adapter-stickers really don’t cut it here, only full replacement RHD optical blocs will do, and misalignment by a single excess degree is an automatic fail - no lie).

It makes for the sanest park of second-handers going, and if you happen to spot a banger (blink-and-you’ll-miss-it), chances are it’s got a French or east European reg plate on!

I’ve direct experience of the French contrôle technique, Brit MOT, Irish NCT and Luxo contrôle technique, and let me tell you that this is something that has yet to be harmonised - likewise personal imports and re-reg (1 of those 2 RHDs has been on several countries’ reg already, incl.Dublin plates!)

Lemming

murphaph wrote: »

I suspect it's because the UK driving licence photocard was only half the licence. The complete driving licence used to consist of photocard + paper counterpart (where endorsements would be entered). It seems from googling that the UK abolished the daft counterpart idea in 2015.

I swapped my Irish licence for a UK license back in 2010 and didn't get a paper counterpart. When queried was told they were not issued anymore.

The reverse was true of the National Insurance cards (equivalent of the social welfare cards issued in Ireland) where I was informed that cards were no longer issued and once you had your NI number notification that was it.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hmmm ... I dunno. I think the "blame the evil EU" excuse will start to wear thin soon enough. That's what I meant when I said that this first year (especially summer travel period) could be written off as a price worth paying for the New and Glorious Global Britain.

But just as people got tired of the endless Brexit negotiations and were happy to "get Brexit done" I think they'll get tired of being told that everything's the fault of the EU when they, on a personal level, are not seeing any Brexit dividend.

Sure, you'll have those who say nothing is any different, because they'll go on holidays to places that are desperate for British tourist money and will make their arrival (and departure) as smooth as possible; but you'll have a hell of lot of others who had plans to move and/or retire and/or do business and/or study and/or work throughout the EU and who remember that it wasn't like this before.

I'd hazard a guess that the pie-and-a-pint types who take two weeks in Benidorm, and notice no difference, are not hardcore Tory voters; whereas the retirees and business classes who find their lives are changed are probably more Blue than Red.

I'd agree with this for a few reasons.

Firstly, the reason that the EU being evil and controlling narrative worked, aside from the relentless barrage of misinformation for decades was that the UK was part of the EU. This is no longer the case. It's also likely that the Tories' false narrative of Brexit yielding a better vaccine strategy will come back to bite them as if people believe this then how can the EU continue to exert control over the UK which, we're told is now a sovereign nation.

Secondly, as I've said before, the press is a shadow of its former self. The tabloids here are immensely popular but their hold is slipping as more and more people turn to social media for their news. The best they've been able to do is to win just over 40% of the vote for the Conservatives which in terms of the popular vote isn't great considering how powerful these press barons used to be.

Thirdly, people are just too sick of the thing to be incited by it again. It will have been five years since the referendum come the 23rd June this year and the ensuing years of Parliamentary bickering. It's been replaced by covid now as the main source of public discontent and that's not going away for several months at least.

Finally, I think that any tangible day-to-day inconveniences to individuals are going to topple any myths that the media and the Brexiters try to peddle. Remember the outrage when the EU wanted 35 quid for a five-year tourist visa? Once things begin to return to normality we'll start to see more such inconveniences and costs for the public whenever they want to go to the continent or have any dealings with it. It says a lot that substantial minorities of Brexiters were happy to jettison the union and family members' jobs, not to mention the stripping younger Britons' rights to live and work in the EU27 member states but a tourist visa is where the line is.

NeuralNetwork

ambro25 wrote: »

We’ve kept 2 of the 3 ex-UK RHDs and driven them here for 3 years with no bother, and I bought a LHD 2 years ago as a present to self. We each swap between the RHD and LHD cars every other day, with no bother.

The hardest bit has been getting, and then maintaining, the older RHDers to local MOT/NCT standards, which must be the most stringent going in Western Europe (I’m afraid adapter-stickers really don’t cut it here, only full replacement RHD optical blocs will do, and misalignment by a single excess degree is an automatic fail - no lie).

It makes for the sanest park of second-handers going, and if you happen to spot a banger (blink-and-you’ll-miss-it), chances are it’s got a French or east European reg plate on!

I’ve direct experience of the French contrôle technique, Brit MOT, Irish NCT and Luxo contrôle technique, and let me tell you that this is something that has yet to be harmonised - likewise personal imports and re-reg (1 of those 2 RHDs has been on several countries’ reg already, incl.Dublin plates!)

You won’t pass an NCT with light beam stickers. They’re fairly strict on the beam angles and Irish insurers can be crucifying on LHD long term. I know a few Germans in West Cork who just gave up and bought Irish cars.

The MOT is done in a normal garage. I know a few people who imported cars with recent MOT that subsequently failed the NCT.

There are big gaps between the various systems.

I know a few people who tried to drive on German and French plates here too for extended periods and got fairly quickly caught out as residents. It’s not something a local Garda won’t notice eventually if they see the car around for months.

A lot of this stuff isn’t Brexit related but it will just get much more problematic for U.K. citizens this year.

ambro25

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

You won’t pass an NCT with light beam stickers. They’re fairly strict on the beam angles and Irish insurers can be crucifying on LHD long term. I know a few Germans in West Cork who just gave up and bought Irish cars.

The MOT is done in a normal garage. I know a few people who imported cars with recent MOT that subsequently failed the NCT.

There are big gaps between the various systems.

I know a few people who tried to drive on German and French plates here too for extended periods and got fairly quickly caught out as residents. It’s not something a local Garda won’t notice eventually if they see the car around for months.

A lot of this stuff isn’t Brexit related but it will just get much more problematic for U.K. citizens this year.

Indeed (and I should have probably added that the context of my post, when we’ve “kept the 2 ex-UK RHDs”, was the Luxembourgish contrôle technique (I meant LHD optical blocs, mistake in my post) and we drive these here on the Continent).

I’d reg’d the (original UK car, bought in UK) MX5 in Ireland when we moved there BITD, had fun getting it VRT-exempted. NCT was straightforward forward enough, it was only 6 years old then.

Fast-forward 17-ish years, now it’s on Lux plates, with LHD optics (hadn’t bothered when it was briefly on French plates in the mid-00s: did about 300 daytime miles total those years).

We’ve a bit of experience swapping EU countries ‘with baggage’ like that, and not exactly HNWI jet-setters so well-used to look up and ‘DIY-get on top’ of admin procedures, personal and material (...except when they keep changing on the hoof, as they are with Brexit fallout).

And you are absolutely right: it was complex enough when the UK was still an EU member state, now it’d be downright daunting.

E.g. EU importers of UK cars are going to have fun getting that EU certificate of conformity, a requirement to avoid full-fat (€€€) technical testing at importation for registration here: is it still valid at all, e.g. if it was issued pre-Brexit? And what of the VAT situation, now that the car is getting imported from outside the EU? (rethorical questions )

Bigus

I was on a British motoring forum today, where Honda exit from Swindon was been discussed , and how the well paid jobs in vehicle production were being replaced with warehouse jobs to be offered by pannonli via amazon, and this being sold as a Brexit benefit.

I was very slow to put my head above the “because of Brexit” parapet , but by god when somebody else did , you’d want to see the vitriol.

As In “Honda are crap “
“Jazz’ s are driven by my deceased granny and civics come in the wrong colour” so it’s all Honda’s fault and nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit , especially as that’s what the Honda CEO says and “I’m quoting him” so don’t be resurrecting project fear.

It truly is amazing, the brain washing , going on over there.

The remaiers lost and tough **** for the next 30 years, it’s democracy INNIT, or summmfing.

McGiver

I don't agree with any of the optimistic posts.

The anti-EU narrative - has been set for decades
The media - are corrupt, owned by oligarchs (Murdoch) and almost all have an anti-EU agenda
The political system - is rigged, broken and heading towards authoritarianism
The business interests - are set - the City as a global unregulated money laundering machine for criminals, Arabs, Russians and Chinese, plus other dodgy "business" agendas
The electorate - is disinterested, apathetic, uninformed and brainwashed

None of this will change. And I'd argue that social media actually exacerbate the negative situation rather than improve it. I'm afraid that the UK's course is permanent. Barring some sort of a revolution (riots a la Poll Tax).

ancapailldorcha

McGiver wrote: »

I don't agree with any of the optimistic posts.

The anti-EU narrative - has been set for decades
The media - are corrupt, owned by oligarchs (Murdoch) and almost all have an anti-EU agenda
The political system - is rigged, broken and heading towards authoritarianism
The business interests - are set - the City as a global unregulated money laundering machine for criminals, Arabs, Russians and Chinese, plus other dodgy "business" agendas
The electorate - is disinterested, apathetic, uninformed and brainwashed

None of this will change. And I'd argue that social media actually exacerbate the negative situation rather than improve it. I'm afraid that the UK's course is permanent. Barring some sort of a revolution (riots a la Poll Tax).

I'm not sure that optimistic is the right word. The UK has left the EU and I can't see it even considering to reverse course until the middle of next decade at the very earliest.

The one thing I do see happening at some point is the government overreaching and paying a heavy price as a result. It's something that always happens when a corrupt government or ruler is in power and doesn't have to worry about checks & balances.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not sure that optimistic is the right word. The UK has left the EU and I can't see it even considering to reverse course until the middle of next decade at the very earliest.

The one thing I do see happening at some point is the government overreaching and paying a heavy price as a result. It's something that always happens when a corrupt government or ruler is in power and doesn't have to worry about checks & balances.

Putin says hello

KildareP

McGiver wrote: »

I don't agree with any of the optimistic posts.

The anti-EU narrative - has been set for decades
The media - are corrupt, owned by oligarchs (Murdoch) and almost all have an anti-EU agenda
The political system - is rigged, broken and heading towards authoritarianism
The business interests - are set - the City as a global unregulated money laundering machine for criminals, Arabs, Russians and Chinese, plus other dodgy "business" agendas
The electorate - is disinterested, apathetic, uninformed and brainwashed

None of this will change. And I'd argue that social media actually exacerbate the negative situation rather than improve it. I'm afraid that the UK's course is permanent. Barring some sort of a revolution (riots a la Poll Tax).

100%.

There is no collective realisation coming anytime soon that all of these new negatives are as a consequence of Brexit.

Much easier to believe it's someone else's fault for imposing these "new" rules from acting out of spite rather than "my" fault for voting for Brexit and collectively choosing to subject the UK to decades old rules and regulations that every other non-member has had to abide by since the first day they wanted anything to do with the EU.

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

I'd argue that social media actually exacerbate the negative situation rather than improve it. I'm afraid that the UK's course is permanent.

KildareP wrote: »

Much easier to believe it's someone else's fault for imposing these "new" rules from acting out of spite rather than "my" fault for voting for Brexit and collectively choosing to subject the UK to decades old rules and regulations that every other non-member has had to abide by since the first day they wanted anything to do with the EU.

Unless you're Scottish, Northern Irish or Welsh. Then, even if you did vote for Brexit, you can half-legitimately blame the English Tories for selling a lie and for not negotiating a more constructive new trade agreement.

Leroy42

I think that until they actually face the real failings inherent in the system itself, and also the part that they, as individuals, played in the process, then nothing will really change.

They might shift the blame from Remoaners, to the Tories, and then vote in Labour and expect everything to be fixed without any cost, they will still be unhappy with the outcome.

Essentially they have, IMO, never actually faced what it is they actually want, what the long term plan is, what the real costs are and how the country is actually going to change.

ambro25

McGiver wrote: »

(...)

None of this will change. And I'd argue that social media actually exacerbate the negative situation rather than improve it. I'm afraid that the UK's course is permanent. Barring some sort of a revolution (riots a la Poll Tax).

I’d argue that social media misuse/purposing was, and remains, the greatest enabling factor for authoritarian populists, by some distance, and what actually made possible -and delivered- Brexit, Trump, Johnson...

Umberto Eco wrote some time ago “Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community. Then they were quickly silenced, but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner”. Never truer words (edit: and yes, I’m well aware of the irony of buying into this and posting it on a social media site like Boards :pac:)

Sprinkle enough Cambridge Analytical opinion-forming magic tech here, and enough “we’ve had enough of experts” signalling from figureheads (lifted and carried by that very opinion-forming magic tech) on social media, and voilà: 52% in 2016, 80 seats in 2019, and about as much public discontent about the binfire of the last 5 years (never mind Q1 2021), as on a sunny May bank holiday with temp in the mid-20s.

The revolution to which you allude, may well arise from taxation or other government policies in years to come. If it ever does. But that revolution which needs to happen, is educational first and foremost.

dublin49

Concerns around Immigration and pent up resentment about an EU dominated by Germany fanned by the Tabloid press in my opinion caused Brexit and the dial won't be moved by Artisan Cheese Makers going out of business.Any fall off in economic activity will be explained away by claims the EU are abusing and mis-interpreting the deal and perversely the worse the British economic outcome from Brexit the more the hostility towards the EU will increase.

redcup342

dublin49 wrote: »

Concerns around Immigration and pent up resentment about an EU dominated by Germany fanned by the Tabloid press in my opinion caused Brexit and the dial won't be moved by Artisan Cheese Makers going out of business.Any fall off in economic activity will be explained away by claims the EU are abusing and mis-interpreting the deal and perversely the worse the British economic outcome from Brexit the more the hostility towards the EU will increase.

The Concerns around movement won't kick in until the Brits can go abroad again.

Then it will go into overdrive.

The Daily Express will be stuck with writing puff pieces on how you can get 200 rothmans tax free on the boat.