Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

serfboard wrote: »

I would rephrase this to "with Brexit voters took away a ruling class excuse for domestic failings". The ruling class will find plenty of other excuses when Brexit fails to deliver.

Europe has been their whipping boy since the empire was lost.

The problem with winning a stomping majority "to get brexit done" is that all the reasons people voted for Brexit are packaged into the rest of this term too.

If brexit doesn't deliver the fault now squarely lies with Johnson.

Leroy42

yagan wrote: »

Europe has been their whipping boy since the empire was lost.

The problem with winning a stomping majority "to get brexit done" is that all the reasons people voted for Brexit are packaged into the rest of this term too.

If brexit doesn't deliver the fault now squarely lies with Johnson.

No, if Brexit doesn't deliver (spoiler alert, it won't) then its all because of the vindictive and anti British EU.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, if Brexit doesn't deliver (spoiler alert, it won't) then its all because of the vindictive and anti British EU.

Well, no. The government are firmly in control now. Anyone on the Brexit side knows it's been done and dusted. Continuing to blame the EU serves no purpose. We've already seen plenty of the effects and they've obviously been pinned on Brexit.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, no. The government are firmly in control now. Anyone on the Brexit side knows it's been done and dusted. Continuing to blame the EU serves no purpose. We've already seen plenty of the effects and they've obviously been pinned on Brexit.

The government were always in control.

Blaming the EU serves the purpose of avoiding blame.

Capt'n Midnight

Another slant on Brexit voters. The Venn diagram gets messier. This time religion.

Catholics being used to Rome rule vote remain, as did Presbyterians and regular churchgoers and those with the strongest religious beliefs

Anglicans, and especially lapsed ones voted Leave because ... Henry VIII wouldn't let the Pope tell him what to do and we won't either.


It also suggests a collapse of the Labour vote from Catholics in the upcoming elections. And with the UK's FPTP this could sway things. And local elections being one of the biggest opinion polls short of a GE it'll be interesting to watch. Though not as interesting as the NI and Scottish ones.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Another slant on Brexit voters. The Venn diagram gets messier. This time religion.

Catholics being used to Rome rule vote remain, as did Presbyterians and regular churchgoers and those with the strongest religious beliefs

Anglicans, and especially lapsed ones voted Leave because ... Henry VIII wouldn't let the Pope tell him what to do and we won't either.


It also suggests a collapse of the Labour vote from Catholics in the upcoming elections. And with the UK's FPTP this could sway things. And local elections being one of the biggest opinion polls short of a GE it'll be interesting to watch. Though not as interesting as the NI and Scottish ones.

So religious people who believe that a superior being guides them through life as long as they believe in god, also believe in the EU, interesting.


A quote in my sig says it all.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

The government were always in control.

Blaming the EU serves the purpose of avoiding blame.

How? On what pretext? The UK has extricated itself from EU rules, rights and responsibilities.

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

How? On what pretext? The UK has extricated itself from EU rules, rights and responsibilities.

EU not doing the honorable action UK expected them to do and instead continuously backstabbing the UK and preventing them from getting trade deals / do exports / sell services by nefarious yet vague means as told by sources close to the government/PM. Trade deal fails? EU blocked it. Exports goes down? EU added "new rules" to stop "global Britain" as "they are afraid of UK being a success".

It's easy to keep spinning because you don't have to do actual facts; simply spin stories out of it all as the audience it's aimed at don't do facts / long complicated articles.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

So religious people who believe that a superior being guides them through life as long as they believe in god, also believe in the EU, interesting.

No. It depends on the religion.

Anglicans ie. Church of England, who reject Rome also tend to reject the Treaty Of Rome.

Other Christian religions prefer remain,

Be interesting to see non-Christian religions BUT I'd suspect that non-EU immigration would probably be a bigger issue and may well have been enough to sway Brexit.

yagan

Leroy42 wrote: »

The government were always in control.

Blaming the EU serves the purpose of avoiding blame.

But they can no longer blame the EU now that they've taken back control.

If they continue to blame the EU for their own inaction then they undermine their own tenure.

Until we're properly emerging from Covid restrictions will the full effects of Brexit be felt in the UK.

Nate--IRL--

yagan wrote: »

But they can no longer blame the EU now that they've taken back control.

They will simply lie.

Nate

Capt'n Midnight

yagan wrote: »

But they can no longer blame the EU now that they've taken back control.

Except they always had control.

They had an EU veto and full control over non-EU immigration and many years on immigration from accession countries and full control over Passport colours (and could have played the national security card to get them made in the UK) etc. etc,

What they didn't have was full control to rip up stuff they already agreed to.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Another slant on Brexit voters. The Venn diagram gets messier. This time religion.

Catholics being used to Rome rule vote remain, as did Presbyterians and regular churchgoers and those with the strongest religious beliefs

Anglicans, and especially lapsed ones voted Leave because ... Henry VIII wouldn't let the Pope tell him what to do and we won't either.


It also suggests a collapse of the Labour vote from Catholics in the upcoming elections. And with the UK's FPTP this could sway things. And local elections being one of the biggest opinion polls short of a GE it'll be interesting to watch. Though not as interesting as the NI and Scottish ones.

I'd hazard a guess here that non religious people might be more likely to be xenophobes and racists, particularly the uneducated ones. Regular churchgoers and believers would surely believe racism to be sinful and not compatible with their religion, whereas those who don't believe may have no such qualms about hating on foreigners and ethnic minorities.

Brexit vs religion is an interesting topic and one we've rarely heard discussed.

Peregrinus

timetogo1 wrote: »

But anyway this thread is on Brexit and talking about religion seems like its way off topic.

Talking about how religious identificatin and practice correlates with attitudes to Brexit is certainly not off-topic.

But it's also not likely to be very useful if you simply data-mine the report looking for points which can be made to confirm your preconceptions - whether positive or negative - about religion.

I think we're missing some fairly obvious things here.

First, a majority of Anglicans backed Leave, while a majority of Presbyterians and Catholics backed Remain. This might have nothing to do with religion; it may simply be an artefact of the the fact that Anglicans are disproportionately English, Presbyterians are disproportionately Scottish and Catholics are disproportionately Irish or of continental European descent. It's national identity/heritage, rather than denominational affiliation, that may be the real driver here. You'd need to know whether the studty controlled for this.

Secondly, practising members (of any denomination) were more likely to back Remain than non-practising members of that denomination. There could be a couple of things going on here. Religiously active people are disproportionately female, for one, and we know that women leaned to Remain more than men. Churchgoers are more likely to be community-minded (i.e. involved in other communal activities apart from church attendance) than non-churchgoers, who trend more individualistic. And individualism may be associated with support for Leave and communitarianism with support for Remain.

In short, these data may say more about the kinds of people who are religious, who are actively religious, or who identify with a particular denomination than they do about the influence of religious belief on political attitudes.

Peregrinus

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

They will simply lie.

Nate

Of course. But if at the same time they are saying:

"Brexit gives us back control!"

and:

"All these bad things are inflicted on us by the nasty EU!"

. . . the lie is exposed. If, after Brexit, the nasty EU can inflict all these bad things on you, then Brexit clearly hasn't given you back control. If it had, the EU wouldn't be able to do things to you that you don't want done.

Mr.Wemmick

Peregrinus wrote: »

Of course. But if at the same time they are saying:

"Brexit gives us back control!"

and:

"All these bad things are inflicted on us by the nasty EU!"

. . . the lie is exposed. If, after Brexit, the nasty EU can inflict all these bad things on you, then Brexit clearly hasn't given you back control. If it had, the EU wouldn't be able to do things to you that you don't want done.

Trouble is there is no one calling them out on it. Starmer's voice is weak; very few are listening to him. The papers/media are controlled and say whatever the HMG want them to say (BBC political coverage is a joke). So if the EU are to blame, that lie/ the message is drummed into the nation courtesy of Murdoch.

rock22

Peregrinus wrote: »

Of course. But if at the same time they are saying:

"Brexit gives us back control!"

and:

"All these bad things are inflicted on us by the nasty EU!"

. . . the lie is exposed. If, after Brexit, the nasty EU can inflict all these bad things on you, then Brexit clearly hasn't given you back control. If it had, the EU wouldn't be able to do things to you that you don't want done.

But are they not doing exactly that regarding the NI protocol, unilaterally suspending it?

Peregrinus

rock22 wrote: »

But are they not doing exactly that regarding the NI protocol, unilaterally suspending it?

Doing exactly what?

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

EU not doing the honorable action UK expected them to do and instead continuously backstabbing the UK and preventing them from getting trade deals / do exports / sell services by nefarious yet vague means as told by sources close to the government/PM. Trade deal fails? EU blocked it. Exports goes down? EU added "new rules" to stop "global Britain" as "they are afraid of UK being a success".

It's easy to keep spinning because you don't have to do actual facts; simply spin stories out of it all as the audience it's aimed at don't do facts / long complicated articles.

I've not really seen this. It seems to have been attributed to Brexit. The main priority for most people here seems to have been getting it done.

rock22

Peregrinus wrote: »

Doing exactly what?

Sorry, I meant , "Are they not still blaming the EU"

Peregrinus

rock22 wrote: »

Sorry, I meant , "Are they not still blaming the EU"

Yes, of course they are. They were always going to blame the EU in all eventualities. What other course is open to them?

My suggestion is not that the inherent contradiction in their own position will force them to modify or abandon it; just that it will cause the position, and the people advancing it, to lose credibility.

CelticRambler

There is more than enough ammunition to fire at the Tories by anyone motivated and competent to use the gun. But that's the weak point - in England, nobody wants to take up arms against the current administration, not even the Opposition. The situation is, naturally enough, different in Scotland where the effects of Brexit align perfectly with anti-Tory sentiment, and the home-grown parties have no compunction about attacking both Labour and the Conservatives.

We're in a strange form of suspended animation (or Purgatory, if you like religious analogies :rolleyes: ) where Covid-19 has both masked the effects of Brexit and given Johnson&Co grounds for falsely validating it.

But as discussed a little while ago, Johnson's vaccine strategy was a gamble that has so far paid off. So far. However, last night I learnt that in my neighbouring French département, minimally affected until two weeks ago, two clusters have appeared with 100% of the OAPs infected having already been fully vaccinated (Pfizer vacc, Brazil and/or SA variant). If vaccination proves to be ineffective and Britain is locked down yet again, Johnson is likely to face a storm of criticism with his opponents searching for other grievances with which to beat him; and Brexit-related difficulties will be one of those.

On the other hand, if the pandemic is brought under control and Britons can start to move around Europe again, they'll come up against the barriers that weren't there before. Chances are that many of the problems will be resolved by the UK quietly agreeing to match EU rules and regs (e.g. testing inshore waters according to EU protocols), with a gradual slide towards BRINO. That will then give the hardcore ERG mob fuel to attack Johnson for betraying them, and the not-England parties a premise to ask "what was the point?" - especially when there are no Great New Trade Deals being signed with anyone else.

I think Johnson is enjoying the benefit of an extended honeymoon period thanks to the coronavirus, but the longer it goes on, the greater the risk of his house of cards collapsing.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've not really seen this. It seems to have been attributed to The main priority for most people here seems to have been getting it done.

And yet, it is anything but. Hence the facile blame-piling onto the EU, which itself was as predictable as much of the consequences of Brexit since before 2016.

Pragmatically, all that this spinning is worth, is a shrug: risk-planning UK, EU27 and 3rd country businesses with enough of a stake in *whichever flavor of actual Brexit would come out* started voting with their corporate feet and got their own Brexit 'done' years before the UK government actually got it done last January.

'Most people' in the UK are emblematically *not* the (eg) 7k+ traders and asset managers that have been relocated to Dublin, Luxembourg, Paris or Frankfurt since 2018, nor aware of the €tn-sized hole in City-managed assets that used to make babies there and yield a sizable chunk of tax money for Mr Sunak, and still less aware of the eventual rippling consequences of these developments.

'Most people' in the UK were never that much aware of how relevant and important the UK's EU membership was, to their daily life and socio-economic well-being. That will gradually change, as the flavor of Brexit done by the UK government finally collides with their uninformed reality, sector by sector, Brexit-implementing milestone after milestone. Fishermen and agrifood producers must be very aware already by now, for example.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

There is more than enough ammunition to fire at the Tories by anyone motivated and competent to use the gun. But that's the weak point - in England, nobody wants to take up arms against the current administration, not even the Opposition . . .

This is certainly true in relation to Brexit. I think the opposition parties judge that voters don't want to hear that Brexit hasn't been done/has been done badly, even if this is true. Especially if this is true, in fact. They are heartily sick of Brexit and they never want to hear about it again. So at least for some years to come they are going to respond warmly to the party that tells them they don't have to worry about Brexit any more, and they will punish any party that tells them the opposite.

CelticRambler wrote: »

On the other hand, if the pandemic is brought under control and Britons can start to move around Europe again, they'll come up against the barriers that weren't there before. Chances are that many of the problems will be resolved by the UK quietly agreeing to match EU rules and regs (e.g. testing inshore waters according to EU protocols), with a gradual slide towards BRINO. That will then give the hardcore ERG mob fuel to attack Johnson for betraying them, and the not-England parties a premise to ask "what was the point?" - especially when there are no Great New Trade Deals being signed with anyone else.

Again, it doesn't matter. There is no more mileage for the ERG complaining that Brexit has been done badly than there is for the Labour Party. Either way, the English electorate doesn't want to hear it, and the complaints won't find any traction against the government.

KildareP

The English don't want to hear Brexit has not been done - absolutely.

So why are they hitting all of these new barriers and delays when they eventually go to travel Europe again?
Oh, because the EU have introduced all of these "new" immigration and visa rules! Bloody EU!

Why is ReallyGood company's ReallyGood product that they shipped to the EU pre-Brexit/pre-Covid for decades suddenly so much more expensive now that restaurants and shops are back open?
Oh, because the EU have introduced all of these "new" tariffs and checks. Bloody EU trying to make Britain pay for Brexit!

Why are Fred and Vicky being deported back to the UK - just weeks before Christmas too! - from their lovely Spanish villa that they have come to spend the winter months here every year in September for the last fifteen years?

Oh, that's the vindictive EU trying to punish UK citizens for Brexit!

Etc.

Honestly, I reckon I could write a Tories' Brexit "FAQ" and see will Paddy Power take odds on when each one comes into play, could sort me out with a nice discounted villa in sunny Spain!

redcup342

More and more Post Brexit "Triumphs"

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2021/04/cashback-without-purchase-to-be-allowed-by-shops-after-post-brexit-law-change/

You can now withdraw cash at a shop without making a purchase.

Previously under EU Law an entity would have to be registered with the Financial Conduct Authority making it too much of a burden so they just removed the Conduct Authority registration requirement.

The issue here was registering with the FCA was a total hassle so nobody did it, rather than fix the problem they just removed it altogether.

Weirdly enough in Germany we've had cashback without purchases for some years now and you can even deposit money as well.
https://praxistipps.chip.de/geld-abheben-im-supermarkt-hier-gehts_114146

And you can do the same in Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain and Greece (just to name a few)
https://support.n26.com/en-eu/app-and-features/cash26/what-is-cash26

So really how is that a "Triumph" if other member states in the EU were doing the same thing anyway. :rolleyes:

Should have just fixed the issue if you wanted to promote it, not remove it and and Flag wave it as a big win because of Brexit

cameramonkey

trade negotiations with Australia going well.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-uncomfortable-chair-australians-shocked-by-bizarre-british-insulting-trade-tactics-20210421-p57l7v.html

The Raging Bile Duct

cameramonkey wrote: »

trade negotiations with Australia going well.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-uncomfortable-chair-australians-shocked-by-bizarre-british-insulting-trade-tactics-20210421-p57l7v.html

Jesus, it's like they get a thrill from going out of the way to shoot themselves in the foot.

redcup342

cameramonkey wrote: »

trade negotiations with Australia going well.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-uncomfortable-chair-australians-shocked-by-bizarre-british-insulting-trade-tactics-20210421-p57l7v.html

While Australia is happy to work on a trade deal with Britain it is not seen as a vital boost to the economy whereas the British government is desperate to sign new deals to justify Brexit.

This says it all really, everyone else has the Status Quo while the UK is not exactly in a good position.

A deal is two sides, you can't promise anything as the other party has to agree to it.

yagan

KildareP wrote: »

The English don't want to hear Brexit has not been done - absolutely.

So why are they hitting all of these new barriers and delays when they eventually go to travel Europe again?
Oh, because the EU have introduced all of these "new" immigration and visa rules! Bloody EU!

Why is ReallyGood company's ReallyGood product that they shipped to the EU pre-Brexit/pre-Covid for decades suddenly so much more expensive now that restaurants and shops are back open?
Oh, because the EU have introduced all of these "new" tariffs and checks. Bloody EU trying to make Britain pay for Brexit!

Why are Fred and Vicky being deported back to the UK - just weeks before Christmas too! - from their lovely Spanish villa that they have come to spend the winter months here every year in September for the last fifteen years?

Oh, that's the vindictive EU trying to punish UK citizens for Brexit!

Etc.

Honestly, I reckon I could write a Tories' Brexit "FAQ" and see will Paddy Power take odds on when each one comes into play, could sort me out with a nice discounted villa in sunny Spain!

But countering that is betrayal of the Brexiter logic which believed "they need us more than we need them".

A brexiter can just as easily say that Fred and Vicky should be spending their British pension in Britain and not giving it to the EU!

What I find interesting is that the Brexity tabloids now print stories critical of Johnson that they never did in the lead up to Brexit. The tabloids know that the public can get Brexit fatigue so they'll ride the pendulum swing back to full time bashing royals and etonians.

I reckon yesterdays red line outrage against the money grabbing superleague shows there's still plenty of elite bashing fields to be exploited.