Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

Australia is well advanced in discussions with the EU for a trade deal; they have just started with the UK.

The EU deal is, obviously, much more significant to Australia than the UK deal, but they don't greatly care which is completed first. The UK does care, however; if they conclude a deal with Australia before the EU does they will trumpet that a a triumph of Brexit. Plus, even more importantly, if they conclude a deal with Australia before the EU does, nobody will be able to point out that the deal they have just concluded is lousier than the EU deal.

So the Australians have a bargaining counter here. The UK has an incentive to agree a deal quickly, and should be willing to trade other things in order to achieve that. And the Australians - who have far more experience of negotiating trade deals than the UK has - will be fully aware of that.

schmoo2k

Even better, if the EU Aus deal completes after the UK Aus deal, then the UK can get angry at the EU undercutting them?

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

And yet, it is anything but. Hence the facile blame-piling onto the EU, which itself was as predictable as much of the consequences of Brexit since before 2016.

Pragmatically, all that this spinning is worth, is a shrug: risk-planning UK, EU27 and 3rd country businesses with enough of a stake in *whichever flavor of actual Brexit would come out* started voting with their corporate feet and got their own Brexit 'done' years before the UK government actually got it done last January.

'Most people' in the UK are emblematically *not* the (eg) 7k+ traders and asset managers that have been relocated to Dublin, Luxembourg, Paris or Frankfurt since 2018, nor aware of the €tn-sized hole in City-managed assets that used to make babies there and yield a sizable chunk of tax money for Mr Sunak, and still less aware of the eventual rippling consequences of these developments.

'Most people' in the UK were never that much aware of how relevant and important the UK's EU membership was, to their daily life and socio-economic well-being. That will gradually change, as the flavor of Brexit done by the UK government finally collides with their uninformed reality, sector by sector, Brexit-implementing milestone after milestone. Fishermen and agrifood producers must be very aware already by now, for example.

This wasn't my point.

My point was about the perception of Brexit being done by the British public at large. Red tops have stopped harping on and on about immigration as it no longer serves a purpose and as a result levels of concern about it have plummeted.

I think most people are happy to swallow the cost so that it can be done. I think that there are more unpleasant surprises in store of course but most people view it as being largely done with future talks being of a purely technical bent and that's if they're even aware of them.

yagan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

My point was about the perception of Brexit being done by the British public at large. Red tops have stopped harping on and on about immigration as it no longer serves a purpose and as a result levels of concern about it have plummeted.

To add to that there's a strong element of saving face that has to be done which means that continuing to blame the EU for domestic failings simply undermines confidence in the government anew.

Whatever can be spun as a positive will be vastly inflated and Brexit negatives can be explained away as covid related or of some other non-Brexit origin.

Professor Moriarty

yagan wrote: »

To add to that there's a strong element of saving face that has to be done which means that continuing to blame the EU for domestic failings simply undermines confidence in the government anew.

Whatever can be spun as a positive will be vastly inflated and Brexit negatives can be explained away as covid related or of some other non-Brexit origin.

Plus the fact that the UK economy is about to experience a sharp rebound, the perceived effects of which will last for a few years.

redcup342

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This wasn't my point.

My point was about the perception of Brexit being done by the British public at large. Red tops have stopped harping on and on about immigration as it no longer serves a purpose and as a result levels of concern about it have plummeted.

I think most people are happy to swallow the cost so that it can be done. I think that there are more unpleasant surprises in store of course but most people view it as being largely done with future talks being of a purely technical bent and that's if they're even aware of them.

https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/india-enhanced-trade-partnership/

“The UK government has been rather clever because those who want less immigration have had their attention diverted with talk of tough new rules, when the reality is that there is a much more liberal regime that favours foreign workers. It is clever smoke and mirrors.”

He added that businesses would face a massive shortage of skilled staff and would be looking for foreign labour after the pandemic receded.

They aren't talking about immigration anymore because they want to draw attention away from the fact that any new deals will be on the possible relaxing of current immigration rules.

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, of course they are. They were always going to blame the EU in all eventualities. What other course is open to them?

My suggestion is not that the inherent contradiction in their own position will force them to modify or abandon it; just that it will cause the position, and the people advancing it, to lose credibility.

Credibility is redundant when you're canvassing the credulous

druss

I'm kind of leaning to Leroy42 over ancapailldorcha's side on issue of how long the "blame the EU" game can run for. I also believe that switching from "the incompetent, slow and bureaucratic EU" to "the vindictive and anti freedom EU" message can work to explain why the unicorns haven't appeared yet.

But the Truss v Australia story does show where this should logically collapse. I really can't believe that the UK side felt this was a good spin to put on this.

The early "successes" in closing a few roll-over trade deals on same basis as EU has clearly gone to the heads of some. If trade deals with Australia and US aren't that impressive or aren't progressing at all, one could very reasonably ask Brexit questions that can't be blamed on EU.

yagan

If I were an editor of an English tabloid I'd have a couple of themes lined up on the back burners. Obviously the soccer superleague is a gift that can keep giving until a few club owners bow out, islamaphobia is always bubbling away but the brexit pot needs to be put away to be cooled off.

The big prize though is their campaign to make prince Charles so unlikeable that the public mood will be for bypassing him for William and Kate. Even Scotland leaving wouldn't top that!

ancapailldorcha

druss wrote: »

I'm kind of leaning to Leroy42 over ancapailldorcha's side on issue of how long the "blame the EU" game can run for. I also believe that switching from "the incompetent, slow and bureaucratic EU" to "the vindictive and anti freedom EU" message can work to explain why the unicorns haven't appeared yet.

But the Truss v Australia story does show where this should logically collapse. I really can't believe that the UK side felt this was a good spin to put on this.

The early "successes" in closing a few roll-over trade deals on same basis as EU has clearly gone to the heads of some. If trade deals with Australia and US aren't that impressive or aren't progressing at all, one could very reasonably ask Brexit questions that can't be blamed on EU.

The flaw in your opening paragraph is that you think people expect benefits. They don't. When Leave won, the pretences of making people better off dissipated instantly. The NHS bus has been forgotten about and the man riding around in it now occupies 10 Downing Street. Nobody here is expecting benefits. We'll get the usual bloviating from the government as is to be expected but the prime reason that remain lost imo is that the Leave side voted and campaigned on cultural issues, not economic ones. Talk of liberalising trade, cutting red tape and controlled borders just served as a facade for peoplen to hide behind so they wouldn't be rightly called out for clearly not understanding or trying to understand the issue.

Leroy42

But people will expect the cultural issues to be delivered on. They may well accept that there is no economic benefits, even economic pain, but they will need to see something.

Hence the strong push to weaponise the vaccine rollout. It is a clear 'benefit' of Brexit. They need to keep delivering those to counter the economic and other arguments (like more paperwork, pet passports etc).

Fewer foreigners for a start. Immigration has been a big issue for years and people will want to see that numbers have reduced, significantly. People will want to know why Johnny can't get a job, or a house, but Ahmed can.

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

There is no more mileage for the ERG complaining that Brexit has been done badly than there is for the Labour Party. Either way, the English electorate doesn't want to hear it, and the complaints won't find any traction against the government.

Not now, but in a year/eighteen month's time, when these guys have made as much money out of this episode of Brexit and can't make as much more as they'd like because they're still tied too closely to "Europe". They'll need a lamb to send for slaughter, and the weakest specimen will be the one who couldn't deliver what he promised. Of course, he might well have opted for a cushy retirement in the private sector before it comes to that.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

But people will expect the cultural issues to be delivered on. They may well accept that there is no economic benefits, even economic pain, but they will need to see something.

Hence the strong push to weaponise the vaccine rollout. It is a clear 'benefit' of Brexit. They need to keep delivering those to counter the economic and other arguments (like more paperwork, pet passports etc).

Fewer foreigners for a start. Immigration has been a big issue for years and people will want to see that numbers have reduced, significantly. People will want to know why Johnny can't get a job, or a house, but Ahmed can.

I disagree. As noted above, once the red tops stopped bleating about immigration people stopped caring about it for the most part. Delivering Brexit was delivering on the cultural premise of it. Then it was statues and now it's the vaccine.

Immigration isn't a big issue. It's perceived to be an issue by many as a result of austerity measures and a laissez-faire approach taken by successive governments. The issue isn't that Ahmed has a job. The issue is that Ahmed is in the country to begin with. This is the reason for Patel's constant racist and nonsensical wheezes like the Ascension Island fiasco or the appalling conditions refugees are kept in. It plays well with the base without requiring much effort or expense.

druss

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The flaw in your opening paragraph is that you think people expect benefits. They don't. When Leave won, the pretences of making people better off dissipated instantly. The NHS bus has been forgotten about and the man riding around in it now occupies 10 Downing Street. Nobody here is expecting benefits. We'll get the usual bloviating from the government as is to be expected but the prime reason that remain lost imo is that the Leave side voted and campaigned on cultural issues, not economic ones. Talk of liberalising trade, cutting red tape and controlled borders just served as a facade for peoplen to hide behind so they wouldn't be rightly called out for clearly not understanding or trying to understand the issue.

Well, I disagree with your opening sentence. Most expected that they wouldn't lose anyway.

Musicians would still have freedom of movement.
Fishermen would still have the rights to sell into the Market. French boats couldn't come into larger UK waters.
Pensioners would still get rights to retire in Spain, just not EU citizens in UK.
NI business could throw those forms in the bin and carry on regardless. Best of all deals. In and out.

All of the above still seem to think that this is all stuff where a side deal is possible.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This wasn't my point.

My point was about the perception of Brexit being done by the British public at large. Red tops have stopped harping on and on about immigration as it no longer serves a purpose and as a result levels of concern about it have plummeted.

I think most people are happy to swallow the cost so that it can be done. I think that there are more unpleasant surprises in store of course but most people view it as being largely done with future talks being of a purely technical bent and that's if they're even aware of them.

I had understood your point.

My comment (not a counter-point as such) was that this perception is completely meaningless in practical terms; only has currency in a political context; and that itself has a sell-by-date that is gradually being brought forward as ever more fishermen, farmers, SME exporters <etc> crash onto the Canada-style Brexit 'done' by Johnson.

Bias confirmation out of EU-bashing tropes peddled in British media might give 'most people' in the UK, if not a warm-ish glow, then some solace at least...but they still can't eat it, and it still doesn't pay the mortgage.

You say in that context, that 'most people' are ready to swallow the cost so it can be done. My question is : are 'most people' aware of what that cost actually is, i.e. the reality vs the pyrrhic milestone, and so are you so sure?

redcup342

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree. As noted above, once the red tops stopped bleating about immigration people stopped caring about it for the most part. Delivering Brexit was delivering on the cultural premise of it. Then it was statues and now it's the vaccine.

Immigration isn't a big issue. It's perceived to be an issue by many as a result of austerity measures and a laissez-faire approach taken by successive governments. The issue isn't that Ahmed has a job. The issue is that Ahmed is in the country to begin with. This is the reason for Patel's constant racist and nonsensical wheezes like the Ascension Island fiasco or the appalling conditions refugees are kept in. It plays well with the base without requiring much effort or expense.

I would strongly disagree with that, the simplist example is people expecting things to be like before (free movement) while getting Tangible benefits like Duty free.

Ask any Brit on the Costa Del Sol and you'll get the response "they can't afford to lose our money Spain will set us up just like it was before Brexit"

That pipe dream still very much exists in the Expat Community across the continent.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

But people will expect the cultural issues to be delivered on. They may well accept that there is no economic benefits, even economic pain, but they will need to see something.

Hence the strong push to weaponise the vaccine rollout. It is a clear 'benefit' of Brexit. They need to keep delivering those to counter the economic and other arguments (like more paperwork, pet passports etc).

Fewer foreigners for a start. Immigration has been a big issue for years and people will want to see that numbers have reduced, significantly. People will want to know why Johnny can't get a job, or a house, but Ahmed can.

But Ahmed was born in Bradford and served an apprenticeship. He is working in the local Main Dealer as a mechanic, and earning good money.

Jacob was born in Poland and has worked hard and employs lots of his Polish mates running a plumber business.

It is a disgrace he wont give Johnny a job, even though Johnny has no qualifications and has been on benefits since he left school at 16.

It is not fair.

ancapailldorcha

druss wrote: »

Well, I disagree with your opening sentence. Most expected that they wouldn't lose anyway.

Musicians would still have freedom of movement.
Fishermen would still have the rights to sell into the Market. French boats couldn't come into larger UK waters.
Pensioners would still get rights to retire in Spain, just not EU citizens in UK.
NI business could throw those forms in the bin and carry on regardless. Best of all deals. In and out.

All of the above still seem to think that this is all stuff where a side deal is possible.

Expect, certainly but nobody actually cared unless it affected them personally. If Brexit delivered economically, then it would have been another weapon for the right to use in the culture war as opposed to sincere appreciation of a novel source of growth.

Akrasia

Johnson is getting embroiled in the lobbying scandal as it is emerging now that he promised James Dyson that he would change the tax system to accommodate him

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-live-boris-johnson-today-b1834930.html

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Immigration isn't a big issue. It's perceived to be an issue by many as a result of austerity measures and a laissez-faire approach taken by successive governments. The issue isn't that Ahmed has a job. The issue is that Ahmed is in the country to begin with. This is the reason for Patel's constant racist and nonsensical wheezes like the Ascension Island fiasco or the appalling conditions refugees are kept in. It plays well with the base without requiring much effort or expense.

There's possibly a sequel in the making as regards immigration. Polly Toynbee, writing in the Guardian, describes how Britain's birth rate is falling off a cliff (projected to hit 1.45 births per woman in 2023, accelerated by the pandemic). This has been going on for years, but the deficit of young workers has been masked by immigration from Eastern European states (seasonal workers doing the work, but also settled immigrants having more babies than the natives).

Now that the supply of White Christian Europeans has dried up, the UK is on course not just to be the "sick man of Europe" but a nation of "sick old men (and women) of Europe" with fewer and fewer fit-and-healthy young Brits to pay for their care. The barriers that exist to immigration into other aging countries, like Japan for example, don't apply to GB, so it's to be expected that England - again, particularly England - will become more and more brown and non-Christian over the coming decades.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

You say in that context, that 'most people' are ready to swallow the cost so it can be done. My question is : are 'most people' aware of what that cost actually is, i.e. the reality vs the pyrrhic milestone, and so are you so sure?

I'd split "cost" into the tangible and the abstract. People are all for accepting the abstract cost as long as it doesn't affect them personally. As opposed to the actual, material cost then it was a definite no at the time when it could have been easily ascertained and frankly, those people deserve to get what they voted for.

The cost is only now manifesting itself and will continue to do so but the agreement is what it is. It won't be enough to turn the tide though unless many millions of people take a tangible hit. Of this I am certain. The remain side or whatever it is now needs to build a case for Europe based on cultural reasons. The economic case was made and failed spectacularly.

yagan

redcup342 wrote: »

I would strongly disagree with that, the simplist example is people expecting things to be like before (free movement) while getting Tangible benefits like Duty free.

Ask any Brit on the Costa Del Sol and you'll get the response "they can't afford to lose our money Spain will set us up just like it was before Brexit"

That pipe dream still very much exists in the Expat Community across the continent.

Even if they voted Leave they'll be classed as whingers by brexiters at home and will be told to stop wasting their British pensions in the EU.

I won't be surprised once covid restrictions ease that retire to the sun programs will be replaced by programs promoting retiring to some Welsh seaside as the smarter choice with an NHS clinic, Wetherspoons and Greggs nearby etc..

It will probably be called the Great British Seaside or The English Riviera etc..

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's possibly a sequel in the making as regards immigration. Polly Toynbee, writing in the Guardian, describes how Britain's birth rate is falling off a cliff (projected to hit 1.45 births per woman in 2023, accelerated by the pandemic). This has been going on for years, but the deficit of young workers has been masked by immigration from Eastern European states (seasonal workers doing the work, but also settled immigrants having more babies than the natives).

Now that the supply of White Christian Europeans has dried up, the UK is on course not just to be the "sick man of Europe" but a nation of "sick old men (and women) of Europe" with fewer and fewer fit-and-healthy young Brits to pay for their care. The barriers that exist to immigration into other aging countries, like Japan for example, don't apply to GB, so it's to be expected that England - again, particularly England - will become more and more brown and non-Christian over the coming decades.

You either breed a workforce or you import one so this isn't exactly shocking. The same sort of NIMBY's who only get off their backsides to protect their privilege have only themselves to blame.

The UK had the best of both worlds. A wealthy older population who could be exported to Benidorm or Bordeaux while Eastern European youngsters could be imported to be milked for degrees, income tax and VAT. It's a bit the DUP in that they've taken a boon from fate and just spaffed it on a wall for no material benefit whatsoever.

ambro25

redcup342 wrote: »

I would strongly disagree with that, the simplist example is people expecting things to be like before (free movement) while getting Tangible benefits like Duty free.

Ask any Brit on the Costa Del Sol and you'll get the response "they can't afford to lose our money Spain will set us up just like it was before Brexit"

That pipe dream still very much exists in the Expat Community across the continent.

Whilst I would agree with your core point that people in the UK not versed in/bothered about Brexit and EU membership, expect by and large 'something like' the status quo of old...

...be careful not to fall into stereotypes

In a 2018 ONS report (Lisa O'Carroll Guardian article, can't link sorry), most Brits living in the EU (excl.GB and IE) were working age (2/3 in the 15-64 range), and that split held valid for Spain.

Now from years of reading SM content and surveys by the UKinEU, the 3 Million and InLimbo lobby groups, it's a *very* safe bet that a strong majority of those Brits in the EU then, never mind all the extra Brexodees since, are pro-EU/wise to such misconceptions as "they need us more than we need them".

There sure is a contingent of nationalist/jingoistic gammons on the Costa. It's nowhere near as big or representative of Brits in the EU27, as the media, which finds that contingent all-too-expedient for peddling still more outrage, would have us believe.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You either breed a workforce or you import one so this isn't exactly shocking.

Yes, and it has long been signalled as a potential problem for the whole of Western Europe. What's different now, however, is that that figure is essentially pushes the UK past the point of no return: there will be no way for Britain to breed its own workforce - the numbers don't work any more. The Chinese, even with their enormous absolute numbers, are facing the same problem and have discovered that when you systematically punish baby-makers (deliberately, as in China, or through anti-child policy, as in the UK) there is no way back.

For comparison, France has twin-track approach - if you want to be childfree, fine, but if you're going to have children, have lots of them. One-child families get next-to-no benefits; have three or more and you're a national hero.

druss

ambro25 wrote: »

Whilst I would agree with your core point that people in the UK not versed in/bothered about Brexit and EU membership, expect by and large 'something like' the status quo of old...

...be careful not to fall into stereotypes

In a 2018 ONS report (Lisa O'Carroll Guardian article, can't link sorry), most Brits living in the EU (excl.GB and IE) were working age (2/3 in the 15-64 range), and that split held valid for Spain.

Now from years of reading SM content and surveys by the UKinEU, the 3 Million and InLimbo lobby groups, it's a *very* safe bet that a strong majority of those Brits in the EU then, never mind all the extra Brexodees since, are pro-EU/wise to such misconceptions as "they need us more than we need them".

There sure is a contingent of nationalist/jingoistic gammons on the Costa. It's nowhere near as big or representative of Brits in the EU27, as the media, which finds that contingent all-too-expedient for peddling still more outrage, would have us believe.

With the minor caveat that a good proportion of the 2018 EU-savvy Brits who were wise to this, in my experience, won't be Brits the next time this survey rolls around or at least have regularised their residency status.

There was a post a while back on UK trade experience within the EU institutions and why the UK couldn't leverage this. An answer there would be that many of the UK staff in Commission anyway were now French, Irish or Belgian and had a career structure they were engaged in.

View

druss wrote: »

Well, I disagree with your opening sentence. Most expected that they wouldn't lose anyway.

Musicians would still have freedom of movement.
Fishermen would still have the rights to sell into the Market. French boats couldn't come into larger UK waters.
Pensioners would still get rights to retire in Spain, just not EU citizens in UK.
NI business could throw those forms in the bin and carry on regardless. Best of all deals. In and out.

All of the above still seem to think that this is all stuff where a side deal is possible.

The reality though is that the above just weren’t, and aren’t, recognised as being benefits arising from EU membership. They were taken for granted and assumed as “rights”.

Hence, any problems, arising from the disappearance of those benefits, are not an inevitable consequence of the U.K. ceasing to be an EU member, but, rather, are a result of “the EU” vindictively changing its rules to punish the U.K. for leaving! :-)

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

But people will expect the cultural issues to be delivered on. They may well accept that there is no economic benefits, even economic pain, but they will need to see something.

Hence the strong push to weaponise the vaccine rollout. It is a clear 'benefit' of Brexit. They need to keep delivering those to counter the economic and other arguments (like more paperwork, pet passports etc).

Fewer foreigners for a start. Immigration has been a big issue for years and people will want to see that numbers have reduced, significantly. People will want to know why Johnny can't get a job, or a house, but Ahmed can.

I've always thought this would be a short lived boost for Johnson. Apparently even Brexity types are becoming aware the EU is quickly catching up in vaccinations.

yagan

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's possibly a sequel in the making as regards immigration. Polly Toynbee, writing in the Guardian, describes how Britain's birth rate is falling off a cliff (projected to hit 1.45 births per woman in 2023, accelerated by the pandemic). This has been going on for years, but the deficit of young workers has been masked by immigration from Eastern European states (seasonal workers doing the work, but also settled immigrants having more babies than the natives).

Now that the supply of White Christian Europeans has dried up, the UK is on course not just to be the "sick man of Europe" but a nation of "sick old men (and women) of Europe" with fewer and fewer fit-and-healthy young Brits to pay for their care. The barriers that exist to immigration into other aging countries, like Japan for example, don't apply to GB, so it's to be expected that England - again, particularly England - will become more and more brown and non-Christian over the coming decades.

Fascinating read and something that affects most western societies.

Spain has a scheme with latin american that allows them to fast track to citizenship after two years and Japan started opening up to immigration around 2010. With around 3 million EU citizens living in the UK their offspring will have the option to jump ship when they finish school. Considering the costs of third level in the UK it would be cheaper for them to go work in the EU for a few years to qualify for domestic fees.

Brexit always had a grandpa shaking his fist at the sky vibe about it.

Capt'n Midnight

yagan wrote: »

Even if they voted Leave they'll be classed as whingers by brexiters at home and will be told to stop wasting their British pensions in the EU.

I won't be surprised once covid restrictions ease that retire to the sun programs will be replaced by programs promoting retiring to some Welsh seaside as the smarter choice with an NHS clinic, Wetherspoons and Greggs nearby etc..

It will probably be called the Great British Seaside or The English Riviera etc..

The English Riviera is down in Devon where like in Cornwall the locals have been priced out by the blow in's retiring or holiday homes.

Other coastal towns have been left behind so not nice places if you don't have money or a job.