Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

yagan wrote: »

Fascinating read and something that affects most western societies.

Spain has a scheme with latin american that allows them to fast track to citizenship after two years and Japan started opening up to immigration around 2010. With around 3 million EU citizens living in the UK their offspring will have the option to jump ship when they finish school. Considering the costs of third level in the UK it would be cheaper for them to go work in the EU for a few years to qualify for domestic fees.

Brexit always had a grandpa shaking his fist at the sky vibe about it.

They seemed to think there was something weird or unnatural about people wanting to move to a well off country of 65m to work. The belief that well educated and hard working young migrants were a "drain" on the country and a big negative was widespread.

Seth Brundle

News just in...
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1385150774095794176

The Raging Bile Duct

The 'Aztec Brexit Boost' trade deal with Mexico that was being hailed as a triumph back in December turns out to be a bit of a disaster. I am shocked.

A£5 billion EU continuity trade deal with Mexico, hailed by Whitehall as an “Aztec Brexit Boost”, has become obsolete – after the EU signed a more generous and comprehensive deal between its 27 members states and Mexico.

The UK’s trade deal, which was meant to replicate the existing EU deal with Mexico, will now face stiff competition from EU countries, which have negotiated better terms to sell their manufactured goods and other products to Mexico. The enhanced EU-Mexico Agreement will remove many of the remaining customs duties, increase regulatory co-operation and lower non-tariff barriers for EU companies.

According to a new report from the House of Lords’ International Agreements Committee, the UK could now have to wait another three years to catch-up with the EU even if talks on a new agreement begin this year.

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/22/uks-post-brexit-mexican-trade-deal-left-obsolete/

signostic

Interesting The Davis Downside Dossier
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-dossier/

Peregrinus

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

There doesn’t seem to be anything on Eu website about enhanced agreement just loads info on existing one, no press releases nothing, is there actually a source with more info

Here's the European Commission's webpage on trade relations with Mexico. It says that the existing EU-Mexico deal has been in operation for 20 years, that in 2016 the two parties agreed that it should be "modernised" in a "comprehensive and ambitious manner"; that they reached agreement in principle on how to do this in April 2018; that the technical details were agreed in April 2020; and that the agreed revisions to the trade deal are "undergoing the necessary internal procedures on both sides" leading to signature and entry into force (i.e. the revisions are not in force yet).

Here's a House of Lords webpage reporting on the UK-Mexico trade continuity agreement. It confirms that the trade deal rolled over for the UK is the old "soon-to-be-obsolete" agreement, the one that has been in force for the past 20 years. It note that the rollover agreement is expressly temporary; within a year the UK and Mexico are to "start negotiations on a more comprehensive agreement", with the aim of completing the negotiations within a further 3 years, and the more comprehensive agreement coming into force some time after that.

In those negotiations, the UK may ask Mexico to give it enhanced terms modelled on the terms already given to the EU (and Mexico may or may not agree), or it may ask for "custom" enhanced terms that differ from the EU terms but that are adapted to the specifics of the UK-Mexico relationship (and, again, Mexico may or may not agree). In the meantime, the House of Lords Report confirms, UK business dealing with Mexico will be at a significant competitive disadvantage by comparison with EU businesses dealing with Mexico.

Capt'n Midnight

Not sure if Brexit related. But GDPR and other considerations certainly would have influenced. The UK has lots of trans-Atlantic cables.

https://techxplore.com/news/2021-04-us-british-firm-bn-euro-centre.html

The firms' previous projects include a similar but smaller data centre in Ireland and a biomethane energy plant in Denmark.
...
The project is expected to create up to 1,200 highly-qualified jobs.

ThePanjandrum

SNIP. Ditch the petty name calling please.

BorneTobyWilde

An EU Australia trade deal that involves free movement of people would be amazing. Is that possible.

Nody

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

An EU Australia trade deal that involves free movement of people would be amazing. Is that possible.

Not a chance; better visa options is about the best you can hope for basically.

Slideways

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

An EU Australia trade deal that involves free movement of people would be amazing. Is that possible.

You’re dreaming!

Considering how many people would wish to come here versus how many aussies would want to go to Europe. The place would be flooded and there would be some very pissed off people who had forked out thousands for their PR visa

joeysoap

I was talking to young Aussie last year. Told me they allowed 6 months here and then could go to the UK after that and ‘start’ again. Uk was in EU then too I think 18 months in total.

forgottenhills

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-eu-exports-b1837528.html

This might explain why farmers around here putting up so many cow sheds and going quiet (they complain less when things are good) Irish farmers must be filling the gap in market

A 96% drop is ridiculous, a Brexit sunny uplands land of milk and shellfish

I'm fairly sure that story cannot be correct as it specifically mentions a drop of 96% in UK milk exports to the EU. Liquid milk is perishable and is not exported too far over borders. I imagine that most of the UK's milk "exports" has historically consisted of the milk moving back and forth across the Irish border between NI and the ROI. This movement of milk has been commonplace for years now since big ROI co-ops such as Lakeland and Glanbia have milk suppliers north of the border as well as south. And they also bought smaller co-ops north of the border so they have processing plants both north and south. To avoid rules of origin issues I'm guessing that all this common milk pool and processed product made from it is now labelled of Irish origin so as to avoid country of origin issues in exports from NI or ROI of products like cheese or SMP going to other parts of the single market. I have seen a recent report from Lakeland that it is business as usual since Brexit because of the deal in place so milk is moving normally both north and south as required. Hence I think that this specific story cannot be correct.

Irish farmers are building sheds and milk parlours to expand in dairying for the simple reason that dairy farming is one of the few types of farming that you can make a reasonable income from and dairy quotas have been removed. Beef farming is now largely unprofitable and mostly carried out by farmers who have a second family income to subsidize this hobby. You can read about this on the Farming forum here.

ArmaniJeanss

forgottenhills wrote: »

I'm fairly sure that story cannot be correct as it specifically mentions a drop of 96% in UK milk exports to the EU. Liquid milk is perishable and is not exported too far over borders. I imagine that most of the UK's milk "exports" has historically consisted of the milk moving back and forth across the Irish border between NI and the ROI. This movement of milk has been commonplace for years now since big ROI co-ops such as Lakeland and Glanbia have milk suppliers north of the border as well as south.

Not a milk expert by any means, but isn't it possible that 'milk exports' includes sweet items (chocolate milk, strawberry milk) which are relatively long lasting and have a high markup. So any hit in the export of these products will make a big dent in the figures.
Possibly baby formula exports as well?

I'd agree with you that 'milk in a bulk tanker' is probably not exported in any great amount.

I'd be very sceptical of those figures. The Independent loves to run with random stuff like this from groups such as the Food and Drinks Federation.

Charles Babbage

forgottenhills wrote: »

I'm fairly sure that story cannot be correct as it specifically mentions a drop of 96% in UK milk exports to the EU. Liquid milk is perishable and is not exported too far over borders. I imagine that most of the UK's milk "exports" has historically consisted of the milk moving back and forth across the Irish border between NI and the ROI. This movement of milk has been commonplace for years now since big ROI co-ops such as Lakeland and Glanbia have milk suppliers north of the border as well as south. And they also bought smaller co-ops north of the border so they have processing plants both north and south. To avoid rules of origin issues I'm guessing that all this common milk pool and processed product made from it is now labelled of Irish origin so as to avoid country of origin issues in exports from NI or ROI of products like cheese or SMP going to other parts of the single market. I have seen a recent report from Lakeland that it is business as usual since Brexit because of the deal in place so milk is moving normally both north and south as required. Hence I think that this specific story cannot be correct.

Likely a case of confusing UK and GB, which lazy journalists do all the time. Since January there have been figures with big declines in GB food exports, NI simply wasn't included in these figures.

forgottenhills

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Not a milk expert by any means, but isn't it possible that 'milk exports' includes sweet items (chocolate milk, strawberry milk) which are relatively long lasting and have a high markup. So any hit in the export of these products will make a big dent in the figures.
Possibly baby formula exports as well?

I'd agree with you that 'milk in a bulk tanker' is probably not exported in any great amount.

Yes I think that the Independent article talking about milk and cream is the inaccuracy.

I have found a more original source for the story which when read carefully makes more sense than the Independent story, although it also has the misleading 96 % spin in its headline.

https://www.farminguk.com/news/uk-dairy-exports-to-eu-plunged-96-in-january_57817.html

This report shows that they are talking about all dairy products including milk powder, whey, cheese etc. And more importantly that the drop is more concerned with pre Brexit stockpiling and Covid affecting the market as the drop in UK exports to non EU markets is pretty much the same when both are considered over a 4 month period. The 4 month period was used to smooth over the effects of late 2020 stockpiling. I also looked separately at milk farm gate prices in the UK and these are strong at present suggesting that there is no glut of supplies there right now due to export problems on the scale of the 96% being suggested.

Peregrinus

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

An EU Australia trade deal that involves free movement of people would be amazing. Is that possible.

It's legally possible, yes. But it's not realistic; neither the EU nor Australia wants such a deal. On the Australian side, it would require a complete reversal of Australian migration policy, for which there is zero public or political appetite.

Detritus70

So, Arlene Foster has announced her resignation.
What's scary about this is that Sammy Wilson is a possible successor.
Or would that be good? The DUP should make sure to elect the biggest headcase.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56910045

Professor Moriarty

Detritus70 wrote: »

So, Arlene Foster has announced her resignation.
What's scary about this is that Sammy Wilson is a possible successor.
Or would that be good? The DUP should make sure to elect the biggest headcase.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56910045

I do hope they elect Sammy. I've never seen a human head explode.

Detritus70

I read that there's four possible and probable leadership contenders, Jeffrey Donaldson, Edwin Poots, Gavin Robinson and Sammy Wilson.

What a lovely bunch of people. I guess Arlene wasn't, how should one say this within the rules of this thread, well, robust enough to keep leading this party.
There were fears she may lead the DUP into the 20th century.

Professor Moriarty

Detritus70 wrote: »

I read that there's four possible and probable leadership contenders, Jeffrey Donaldson, Edwin Poots, Gavin Robinson and Sammy Wilson.

What a lovely bunch of people. I guess Arlene wasn't, how should one say this within the rules of this thread, well, robust enough to keep leading this party.
There were fears she may lead the DUP into the 20th century.

I think they're looking for a scapegoat for the NI protocol. Incidentally, the bookies have Donaldson and Poots as joint favourites at 6/4. Next contender is 9/1.

Strazdas

Daily Mail has a story that hundreds of thousands of hospitality workers from eastern Europe have left the UK.

The replies from the readers are an eyeopener. Far from seeing this as a problem, they think it's a good news story, the jobs will all be filled by Brits and it means pay rises all round.

maebee

Strazdas wrote: »

Daily Mail has a story that hundreds of thousands of hospitality workers from eastern Europe have left the UK.

The replies from the readers are an eyeopener. Far from seeing this as a problem, they think it's a good news story, the jobs will all be filled by Brits and it means pay rises all round.

If hospitality jobs could be filled by Brits there would be no need to employ Eastern Europeans. Brits (and Irish) generally don't want hospitality jobs. That's why hospitality companies employ foreign workers. It will definitely be a problem for the UK if their foreign workers leave the UK.

Strazdas

maebee wrote: »

If hospitality jobs could be filled by Brits there would be no need to employ Eastern Europeans. Brits (and Irish) generally don't want hospitality jobs. That's why hospitality companies employ foreign workers. It will definitely be a problem for the UK if their foreign workers leave the UK.

I don't think these guys understand how market forces work. Also, if the pay rises materialise, it means dining out etc will suddenly become very expensive.

It's interesting anyway that they are actually gleeful at reports of migrant workers leaving the country in droves.

ltd440

Strazdas wrote: »

Daily Mail has a story that hundreds of thousands of hospitality workers from eastern Europe have left the UK.

The replies from the readers are an eyeopener. Far from seeing this as a problem, they think it's a good news story, the jobs will all be filled by Brits and it means pay rises all round.

Maybe they went home because the hospitality industry has been closed for the last year.
But if foreign workers are needed in the near future, and they will be, Expect plane loads to arrive fairly quickly.

But that rag won't print that epilogue

Leroy42

ltd440 wrote: »

Maybe they went home because the hospitality industry has been closed for the last year.
But if foreign workers are needed in the near future, and they will be, Expect plane loads to arrive fairly quickly.

But that rag won't print that epilogue

Exactly. Brexit would play a part, but rather small compared to Covid. Many younger workers would have headed home when everything closed, it will take time for people to come back.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Exactly. Brexit would play a part, but rather small compared to Covid. Many younger workers would have headed home when everything closed, it will take time for people to come back.

Don't the new UK immigration rules make it difficult for them to return in fact? Patel has been openly bragging about how Britain has ended EU freedom of movement.

View

ltd440 wrote: »

Maybe they went home because the hospitality industry has been closed for the last year.
But if foreign workers are needed in the near future, and they will be, Expect plane loads to arrive fairly quickly.

But that rag won't print that epilogue

It won’t matter if plane loads arrive unless the people concerned have work visas for the U.K. The expense of all those work visas will be passed on from U.K. employers to their customers.

dogbert27

ltd440 wrote: »

Maybe they went home because the hospitality industry has been closed for the last year.
But if foreign workers are needed in the near future, and they will be, Expect plane loads to arrive fairly quickly.

But that rag won't print that epilogue

Leroy42 wrote: »

Exactly. Brexit would play a part, but rather small compared to Covid. Many younger workers would have headed home when everything closed, it will take time for people to come back.

They left last year. Before Brexit kicked in on January 01st.

They now will need a working visa with a minimum salary of 23,000 pounds.

The minimum wage in the UK of about 8 pounds an hour is probably what these workers were receiving or an annual salary of less than 16,000 pounds.

Employers will have to find the difference of 7,000 pounds per employee and as been pointed out the only way to do that is by increasing the price to the consumer.

Peregrinus

This is a classic illustration of the point that Brexit and Covid intensify one another, and the two happening together produces a worse outcome than than the cumulative outcome of both of them happening separately.

EU residents who were settle in the UK on end-of-transition day could get permanent settled status without having to meet any income requirements; the 23K income requirement only applies to EU citizens come to UK after the end of transition.

But, because of Covid, a large number of low-earning EU citizens who would otherwise have qualified for this had to leave the UK before the end of transition, and cannot now return unless they meet the 23K income requirement.

This will mean significant problems for the hospitality industry, as it struggles to recover from the pandemic restrictions - problems that would have been greatly reduced had the UK taken up the option of extending transition